Youth Player discussion

[Razors left peg]

Apparently Parrott played for the Ipswich U23s today. Not in the squad for 1st team. Gotta say Im now wondering about him

[pineapple stu]

I wouldn't be too worried. It's not ideal, sure, but he's only after going 19 and the step up to senior level is a big one. He's hardly finished.

But I do think it's a pointer towards expectations on here for young players. The top clubs have lots of academy prospects, and most won't make it at Premier League level. He wouldn't be near the national side if we weren't so crap (and I think Kenny has said as much in his comments on League One players).

If half of the promising players we have now - Parrott, Connolly, Idah, Bazunu, Molumby, Coventry, Travers, even Kelleher - make it at the lower end of the Premier League, we'll have done very well indeed. You don't rebuild an entire senior squad from one half-decent U21 one.

[samhaydenjr]

I wouldn't be too worried. It's not ideal, sure, but he's only after going 19 and the step up to senior level is a big one. He's hardly finished.

But I do think it's a pointer towards expectations on here for young players. The top clubs have lots of academy prospects, and most won't make it at Premier League level. He wouldn't be near the national side if we weren't so crap (and I think Kenny has said as much in his comments on League One players).

If half of the promising players we have now - Parrott, Connolly, Idah, Bazunu, Molumby, Coventry, Travers, even Kelleher - make it at the lower end of the Premier League, we'll have done very well indeed. You don't rebuild an entire senior squad from one half-decent U21 one.

I wasn't sure where to put this, but your point here seems like a reasonable lead-in Stu. With this qualifying campaign looking like a write-off, and with the attendant doom and gloom coming out after the Luxembourg debacle, I recently started thinking about the Euro '24 qualifying campaign and whether our squad will be better by then. If we assume that players will retire if they turn 34 before the tournament finals, then we will lose Randolph, Coleman, Clark, McClean, Long and Arter will no longer be playing then, so much of the current squad will be intact (although there may be a spate of retirements after)

So I started thinking about who is coming through replenish the National Team and made a list of players who I would consider realistic young candidates to be playing at a high enough level in a year and a half to be considered for the national team. I based it on a number of loose and probably imperfect criteria: Under 25; Playing for, or being included in, first-team squads at League One or above in England, SPL in Scotland or a top European league (plus young players in lower divisions on loan from bigger clubs); Playing U23 but having made a quick jump recently from U18s or having skipped that level altogether. And this is the list I came up with:

Goalkeepers
Caoimhín Kelleher; Gavin Bazunu; Mark Travers; Max O'Leary; Kieran O'Hara

Defenders
Mark McGuinness; Jimmy Dunne; Thomas O'Connor; Dara O'Shea; Ryan Burke;
Lewis Richards; Peter Kioso; Danny McNamara; Andrew Omobamidele;
Conor Masterson; Trevor Clarke; Ciaran Brennan; Nathan Collins;
Ryan Manning; Sean McLoughlin; Corrie Ndaba; Sean Roughan; Warren O'Hora;
Mark Sykes; Conor Shaughnessy; Corey Whelan; Lee O'Connor; Conor McCarthy
Ryan Nolan

Midfielders
Tyreik Wright; Jayson Molumby; Joe Hodge; Will Smallbone; Will Ferry;
Conor Coventry; Connor Ronan; Gavin Kilkenny; Dan Crowley; Alex Gilbert;
Jordan Shipley; Jason Knight; Louie Watson; Danny Grant; Adam O'Reilly
Olamide Shodipo; Chiedozie Ogbene; Shane McLoughlin; Josh Barrett; Zachary Elbouzedi;
Jack Taylor; Conor Grant; Luca Connell; Jake Doyle-Hayes; Jamie McGrath
Festy Ebosele; John Joe Patrick Finn;

Forwards
Aaron Connolly; Evan Ferguson; Thomas Cannon; Michael Obafemi; Mipo Odubeko;
Troy Parrott; Adam Idah; Joshua Kayode; Ethon Varian; Ryan Cassidy; Aaron Drinan;
Anthony Scully; Armstrong Okoflex; Jonathan Afolabi; Jaze Kabia

Now, I know a lot of these lads will not become Premier League stars in the next 18 months, but hopefully a significant number of them will establish themselves in the top two tiers in England, or equivalent, allowing us to have a significantly stronger squad by then. And who knows, a few young LOI players might go across the Irish Sea and impress by then, and some U23 players I haven't mentioned might break in to their first teams.

But looking at that list of over 70 players, I think there is still reason to be optimistic about the future of the National Team, even if the present kind of sucks

[pineapple stu]

But looking at that list of over 70 players, I think there is still reason to be optimistic about the future of the National Team, even if the present kind of sucks
I think that's more of the same overestimating of young players though. Until they start establishing themselves as first-team players at a suitable level (top two tiers in England) then they're just prospects.

Let's go back to the summer of 1998 and make the same point -

Goalkeepers
Derek O'Connor; Paul Whelan; Alex O'Reilly; Dean Delaney; Joe Murphy;
David Madden

Defenders
David Worrell; Robbie Ryan; Colin Hawkins; Aidan Lynch; David Whittle;
Thomas Heary; Keith Doyle; Richard Dunne; Jason Gavin; Barry Quinn;
Ryan Casey; John Thompson; Keith Foy; Jim Goodwin; John O'Shea;
Dessie Byrne; Brian O'Callaghan; Ian Rossiter

Midfielders
Stephen Murphy; Niall Inman; John Burns; Micky Cummins; Thomas Morgan;
Damien Duff; Alan Kirby; Stephen McPhail; Ronnie O'Brien; Alan Quinn;
Paul Donnelly; Richie Partridge; Andy Reid; Shaun Byrne; Brendan McGill;
Liam Miller; Jonathan Douglas; David Warren; Kevin Grogan

Forwards
Neale Fenn; Glen Crowe; Dessie Baker; Trevor Molloy; Gary Doherty;
Ger Crossley; Robbie Keane; Liam George; David Freeman; David McMahon;
Graham Barrett

Many of those names are forgotten now. Really only four - O'Shea, Dunne, Duff and Keane - were mainstays at international level. Three were squad players - Doherty, Miller, Reid. A few made a handful of caps. Most never made it at all.

Yet that's the three squads from the U20 World Cup in 1997 (semi-final), U-18 European championships in 1998 (winners) and U-16 European championships in 1998 (winners)

And of that, Duff and Keane were already being talked up and were way ahead of anyone we have now. Keane had scored 11 goals in his first senior season with Wolves, and Duff was one of the youngest, if not the youngest, players at the U20 World Cup; he was still eligible for the 1999 competition, at which some commentators reckoned Ireland had the best chance out of all the European teams. (In the event, only Spain went further than us)

[Kiki Balboa]

I

Now, I know a lot of these lads will not become Premier League stars in the next 18 months, but hopefully a significant number of them will establish themselves in the top two tiers in England, or equivalent, allowing us to have a significantly stronger squad by then. And who knows, a few young LOI players might go across the Irish Sea and impress by then, and some U23 players I haven't mentioned might break in to their first teams.

But looking at that list of over 70 players, I think there is still reason to be optimistic about the future of the National Team, even if the present kind of sucks

To be honest , that is a bleak list. Players are just as likely to fall down the leagues as they go from underage to senior, as they are to progress up them. For example Dan Crowley is playing at the same standard at 23 as he did when he was sent on loan at 17.

There is only one player from it that looks like a sure thing and its Gavin Bazunu, and even he is still only playing League 1 at 18 (although he is with a super club). The next brightest are Knight, Molumby and O'Shea but how much more growth can you expect? Max lower table premiership but more likely Championship. There is a low ceiling in that group.

The rest is either too unknown because they are too young, or more likely to end up at LOI as Premiership.

[Olé Olé]

I don't think any of us have a clue. More likely to end up at LOI as Premiership? Who knows? O'Shea and Knight have a lotta of potential. Where will they end up? Who knows?

I think there are 70 names up there and, to coin the phrase, if you throw enough sh1t at the wall some of it will stick.

[pineapple stu]

There is only one player from it that looks like a sure thing and its Gavin Bazunu
This is a discussion that's been done elsewhere, so I don't mean to get too involved in it here, but I don't agree with that at all - either that he looks a sure thing, or that he's the only player you can say that about. Neither is far from certain at the moment, especially when Kelleher is clearly a step ahead (for what that's worth).

[Eminence Grise]

Similar thoughts here, Olé Olé. We got, what, 16 internationals of varying quality from one-cap wonders to, well, wonders like Keane and Duff from the '98 list. The current list is one-third bigger and already 11 players have been capped. A lot of the 1998 16 weren't capped for at least another two years. So, maybe a few earlier developers or willingness to try younger player sooner. I think there's grounds for cautious optimism that we might get a somewhat larger cohort equivalent to a Doherty, McPhail, Miller, Alan Quinn and wild optimism that there's a Duff out there somewhere.

[pineapple stu]

I think you have to keep in mind that a lot of the younger players now have been capped because there's no alternatives.

We had a squad in 1998-2000 which contained a number of players who'd been to two World Cups. That's a lot harder to break into.

[Eminence Grise]

Sure, not gainsaying that, but the reason we've had a aged squad for so long is becase we don't cap enough young players. So instead of capping u21 players with potential early on and giving them the experience and profile to stay at a good level if they don't make it in the Premiership, we allowed them to drop to L2 or worse where if they didn't wither on the vine they eventually clawed their way back to Championship level by their late twenties, but with too much lost time and too much of a gap on players who'd always played at that level.

Right now we've a lot of old players we can't afford to let go of, a lot of young players we're pinning our hopes on, and not much in the middle. The last squad had seven players aged 19-22 (4 year block); eight aged 23-28 (six year block) and eight aged 29-34 (six year block). Tellingly, there were four players with L1 clubs: the only players on permanent L1 contracts were two in the middle cohort (O'Hara, Curtis), and the two youngest squad players (Bazunu, Parrott), both 19, were on loan. There was only one current Premiership player in the middle cohort (Robinson), and two who had played at that level (Cullen, three times) and Christie (23 games, and unlikely to rise to the level again). Seven of the older cohort have a lot of Premiership experience, but they should have been put under serious pressure for their squad places for the last three years, McClean, Brady, Hendrick, Long in particular. Was Cullen ready to be a starter aged 21/22? Probably not - but with 15-20 caps now instead of the handful he has he might be a more developed option.

It's only a snapshot, so not probative of anything other than ... we're in the doldrums.

[pineapple stu]

Sure, not gainsaying that, but the reason we've had a aged squad for so long is becase we don't cap enough young players.
I don't know. I'd argue it's because the young players haven't been good enough.

I don't think a handful of early international caps would really make a huge difference to a player's club career. Stephen Kenny has no control over a player dropping to League Two for example. And is Troy Parrott (1 goal in 30 senior games) any more of a prospect because he has 4 international caps?

[Eirambler]

Well for starters I don't think it's a like for like comparison to use an Under 18 squad and an Under 16 squad from the 90s to compare progression rates to the initial group listed, most of which are older and have progressed further at club level. However, looking at the first group listed you can pretty much already write off 15 to 20 of them as not going to ever become established internationals based on their progression to date. However, many of the ones that have established themselves in our under 21 squad in the last few years have a very decent chance, some sooner, some maybe later in their careers and of course as always quite a few more will fall away. But really what you're trying to get is a group of 20 to 25 or so out of those names who will go on to have solid careers in the top two divisions in England - and that doesn't look unrealistic to me given some of the names listed.

I also am unsure why Gavin Bazunu is being picked out by people as the only likely hope to reach the top level out of the names listed. I have hope for him certainly, but if you asked me right now to pick my top three prospects from the list, he wouldn't be there - it would be Collins, O'Shea and Knight for me at the moment. Bazunu has a lot of potential but as a 19 year old keeper he has a long way to go. That's probably the equivalent of a 17 year old outfield player. Great to see how far he has progressed but I'd wait a couple more years before making a call on his career prospects. The three I listed are a lot further on than he is at club level.

[pineapple stu]

Well for starters I don't think it's a like for like comparison to use an Under 18 squad and an Under 16 squad from the 90s to compare progression rates to the initial group listed
It's not an exact comparison, sure, but there's some indicative merit in there. It was easier to grab hold of those names than to pick a few 21s squads, which would probably give you something similar if we're honest.

Going back to the 90s allows you look back on their full careers as these guys have almost all retired now (Joe Murphy is still playing), but it's still recent enough that their careers were comparable to modern football.

[Eminence Grise]

I don't know. I'd argue it's because the young players haven't been good enough.

But so many young players over a decade? Surely there's an aberration there. Surely some should have made the break through if they got the opportunity?



I don't think a handful of early international caps would really make a huge difference to a player's club career. Stephen Kenny has no control over a player dropping to League Two for example. And is Troy Parrott (1 goal in 30 senior games) any more of a prospect because he has 4 international caps?

We're in hypothetical territory so there's no right or wrong answer. But of course a national manager has no control over a player's club career: it would be ridiculous to suggest it. But they can help by not ignoring them. I think that some young players can have an accelerated development if they get exposure to high level football early in their careers. And a 21 year old with seven or eight caps is in a different shop window to a 21 year old with nothing more than U23 football behind him.

Of course you're going to find more Barry Quinn and Jonathan Douglas experiments than Gary Doherty or Andy Reid qualified successes when capping young players, but you'll find nobody at all if you dont go looking for them. And we've had a succession of managers who have been abso-bloody-lutely derelict in their duties in not looking for them.

And I can't believe I'm trying to win a discussion using Gary Doherty as an example of the kind of player we'd be delighted to see in the current squad. The defence throws itself on the mercy of the court, m'lud.

[pineapple stu]

But so many young players over a decade? Surely there's an aberration there. Surely some should have made the break through if they got the opportunity?
I'm not sure it's an aberration.

We know that Irish players have been going over to England in ever-decreasing numbers since the mid 90s. Brian Kerr's trilogy coincided almost exactly with the opening of the Premier League to all comers, and Irish players starting to get squeezed out. I think the decline has been linear since then, partly because we've done feck all to address it - in fact, we've actively failed to keep up with best junior coaching standards here, which would also explain why the players just aren't there.

Our U21s results have been appalling the past 15 years. (Apart from the most recent campaign, where we still didn't actually qualify) It's not just that we've never qualified for the Euro U21s ever, it's that for 2006/07/09/11, say, we won four qualifying games of 28, including no away games. That's - roughly - the era of players you'd be looking at blooding at senior level after Euro 2012. Again, it's harder to summarise qualifying squads because there's more of them than finals squads, but for example, here (https://www.uefa.com/under21/match/2000063--turkey-vs-republic-of-ireland/?referrer=%2Funder21%2Fseason%3D2011%2Fmatches%2Fr ound%3D2000006%2Fmatch%3D2000063%2Findex)'s the final qualifying game of 2011 qualifying. Coleman, Brady and Hourihane are the only full internationals out of those 14 I think. The players are -

Stephen Henderson - now with Palace, but has played four games in the last six seasons
Séamus Coleman - 59 caps
Brendan Moloney - retired in 2018 with injury. Was with Northampton
Rob Kiernan - US second tier
Séamus Conneely - Accrington Stanley
Richie Towell - Salford
Conor Hourihane - 24 caps
Conor Clifford - Bray
Adam Rooney - Solihull Moore. Could well have been capped while flying at Aberdeen.
Robbie Brady - 57 caps
Graham Carey - CSKA Sofia
Shane McEleney - Finn Harps
Danny Kearns - Cliftonville
Joe Mason - MK Dons

Maybe Rooney deserved a cap, but all the rest have either (a) come through to the senior squad or (b) barely played above the third tier.

You could run that experiment for a variety of squads but I don't think you'd find too many who got away.

Andy Reid and Gary Doherty both had 80 senior club appearances when he made his international debut. Douglas and Quinn had 50 senior games. We barely have that in the squad at the moment.

So I do think it is the case that we've had very few decent young players coming through, and the questions then have to be asked why that is. Fewer players going to England is one. No professional environment domestically for the past decade or so is another. Poor coaching here is a third. Miguel Delaney in one of his articles says that Irish players don't have the technical ability to step up to the mark in England. I think we're seeing all that come home to roost. And it's a huge job to fix.

[elatedscum]

I don't know. I'd argue it's because the young players haven't been good enough.

it's a little of A and a little of B.

John Egan was ready years before he was used. Going back to the days of Trap, Coleman and McClean and McCarthy were underused in their early years. Certainly had O'Neill been more aggressive with Declan Rice, he'd be an Irish player now, perhaps Grealish too. Matt Doherty was 21 when O'Neill took over. He was probably ready in the October or November windows in 2014 (age 22) and yet he made his debut in 2018 (age 26). He tended to persist with older players (thinking Stephen Ward, Daryl Murphy etc.) when there were opportunities to integrate younger options. It meant that guys who should have been competing for places in the first team were only arriving in the squad uncapped and in their prime. Arguably a dysfunctional 21s didn't really help, promising players like Jack Byrne were abandoned in favour of non-leaguers like Connor Dimaio

It seems Kenny has been more aggressive with guys like Molumby than managers in the past were. Picking Idah and Parrott over the likes of Hogan and Maguire is probably something previous managers wouldn't have

<EDIT FYI wrote that before reading your last post>

[pineapple stu]

Here's another sample set actually; the team (https://www.uefa.com/under21/match/2006922--republic-of-ireland-vs-italy/?referrer=%2Funder21%2Fseason%3D2013%2Fmatches%2Fr ound%3D2000192%2Fmatch%3D2006922%2Findex) that drew 2-2 with Italy in August 2012.

Ian McLoughlin - quit the game in 2014, a brief reappearance with Waterford aside
John Egan - 12 caps. Capped as soon as he became a Championship regular
Greg Cunningham - 4 caps. No idea why so few tbh. But has barely played in the last three years.
Shane Duffy - 42 caps. Form has gone off a cliff lately.
Niall Canavan - Bradford
Richie Towell - Salford
Aidan White - Hearts (Scottish second tier)
Eunan O'Kane - 7 caps. Injured the past two years and may have to retire
Rhys Murphy - Yeovil
Jeff Hendrick - 62 caps
Robbie Brady - 57 caps
Aaron McCarey - Cliftonville
James Collins - 8 caps

So same question - who have we overlooked out of that lot? Even with Brady, Hendrick and Duffy, the rush now seems to be to get them out of the squad.

Another factor of course is that we've fewer 2G players as we've gone a generation without emigration. That impacts our playing pool too.

[pineapple stu]

John Egan was ready years before he was used.
Before John Egan was capped, he had two years in League One. That's not "ready". Kenny has said that League One isn't a high enough standard, and I've seen nothing to dissuade me of that view.

I don't think it's a black and white issue - it is, as you say, a little of column A and a little of column B. Most things are. But I think it's maybe 80% "We don't have the players" and 20% "What was Matt Doherty uncapped for so long for?"

[Razors left peg]

One of my favorite things for years was following our underage players. I have to say this season is probably the most deflating ever in terms of the expectation of so many players. I think Im at the point now where I dont really care how they do in underage football, I want to see them in 1st team before I take an interest.

[elatedscum]

Before John Egan was capped, he had two years in League One. That's not "ready". Kenny has said that League One isn't a high enough standard, and I've seen nothing to dissuade me of that view.

I don't think it's a black and white issue - it is, as you say, a little of column A and a little of column B. Most things are. But I think it's maybe 80% "We don't have the players" and 20% "What was Matt Doherty uncapped for so long for?"


Here's another sample set actually; the team (https://www.uefa.com/under21/match/2006922--republic-of-ireland-vs-italy/?referrer=%2Funder21%2Fseason%3D2013%2Fmatches%2Fr ound%3D2000192%2Fmatch%3D2006922%2Findex) that drew 2-2 with Italy in August 2012.
John Egan - 12 caps. Capped as soon as he became a Championship regular


That's pretty selective. His 22-23 season, he was in the league 1 team of the year and was bought by Brentford that summer. His 23/24 season onwards he was a championship regular. After his first season at Brentford, he was made captain there. After his second season, he was bought by Sheffield United for a club record fee. They were promoted that season and he's been a premier league player since.

He played in two friendlies in 2017 against iceland and mexico (March and June), basically the end of his first season as a championship player. Across the second season where he was captain of brentford, we had 7 competitive games and he wasn't in the squad for any of them. he played his next game in a friendly in september 2018 against poland and then his 4th and final cup under o'neill came in a friendly against norn iron in november 2018.

with Mccarthy, he made his debut in the friendly against bulgaria and was finally given his competitive debut in the 6th competitive game of his campaign after Keogh was in the car crash. That was a week before his 27th birthday and he was an established and impressive premier league player.

[pineapple stu]

Fair points, though I still think to say "he was ready years before he was used" is an exaggeration. If we want to start qualifying for tournaments again, then League One isn't good enough. Doing well in League One is the stage where you keep an eye on the guy and if/when he jumps up a division, then you're calling him up.

I think probably the fact he's a defender hasn't helped; we're generally well-stocked with defenders. It's the other end where our problems are - probably because a defender with no technical ability (let's call him S Duffy...no, that's too obvious - Shane D) can cover that by knocking in a few goals from corners, but it's harder to cover that further upfield. And technical ability is where we've been falling way behind Europe for the past 15-20 years.

Here's a very worrying quote from the Miguel Delaney (https://migueldelaney.com/2014/10/08/the-kids-arent-alright-the-real-problem-with-irish-football-part-one/) article linked earlier -


A current Premier League manager confided that most Irish underage players “struggle to adapt”.

The article goes on to link that with poor coaching even before the LoI U13 academies kick in. It'd explain why we see a lot of players drop down the divisions. I wonder are Irish players typecast as "old-fashioned no-nonsense defenders" maybe? A niche role found for them that covers their poor technique - but then you put together a national team of eleven players all with poor technique and you get...well, pretty much what we've seen the past decade.

I don't know the answer to that of course. But just throwing it out there for discussion.

[elatedscum]

That's pretty selective. His 22-23 season, he was in the league 1 team of the year and was bought by Brentford that summer. His 23/24 season onwards he was a championship regular. After his first season at Brentford, he was made captain there. After his second season, he was bought by Sheffield United for a club record fee. They were promoted that season and he's been a premier league player since.

He played in two friendlies in 2017 against iceland and mexico (March and June), basically the end of his first season as a championship player. Across the second season where he was captain of brentford, we had 7 competitive games and he wasn't in the squad for any of them. he played his next game in a friendly in september 2018 against poland and then his 4th and final cup under o'neill came in a friendly against norn iron in november 2018.

with Mccarthy, he made his debut in the friendly against bulgaria and was finally given his competitive debut in the 6th competitive game of his campaign after Keogh was in the car crash. That was a week before his 27th birthday and he was an established and impressive premier league player.

To give an example, during those 7 competitive games where he wasn't included in squads while Brentford's captain and playing excellently, Paul McShane made the bench for the playoffs against Denmark and Egan wasn't selected for the squad. That's just bad process.

A) Lack of players coming through early due to issues at grassroots, schoolboy clubs, LOI, FAI etc
B) U21s being managed poorly further harming the players making the transition
C) the ones that do come show the ability to bridge the gap are neglected until they're impossible not to select - and then by the time they make it, they've almost reached their sell-by date but we're slow to pull the plug because of their relative newness and because the players coming after them are also affected by A and B.

[mark12345]

I'm not sure it's an aberration.

We know that Irish players have been going over to England in ever-decreasing numbers since the mid 90s. Brian Kerr's trilogy coincided almost exactly with the opening of the Premier League to all comers, and Irish players starting to get squeezed out. I think the decline has been linear since then, partly because we've done feck all to address it - in fact, we've actively failed to keep up with best junior coaching standards here, which would also explain why the players just aren't there.

Our U21s results have been appalling the past 15 years. (Apart from the most recent campaign, where we still didn't actually qualify) It's not just that we've never qualified for the Euro U21s ever, it's that for 2006/07/09/11, say, we won four qualifying games of 28, including no away games. That's - roughly - the era of players you'd be looking at blooding at senior level after Euro 2012. Again, it's harder to summarise qualifying squads because there's more of them than finals squads, but for example, here (https://www.uefa.com/under21/match/2000063--turkey-vs-republic-of-ireland/?referrer=%2Funder21%2Fseason%3D2011%2Fmatches%2Fr ound%3D2000006%2Fmatch%3D2000063%2Findex)'s the final qualifying game of 2011 qualifying. Coleman, Brady and Hourihane are the only full internationals out of those 14 I think. The players are -

Stephen Henderson - now with Palace, but has played four games in the last six seasons
Séamus Coleman - 59 caps
Brendan Moloney - retired in 2018 with injury. Was with Northampton
Rob Kiernan - US second tier
Séamus Conneely - Accrington Stanley
Richie Towell - Salford
Conor Hourihane - 24 caps
Conor Clifford - Bray
Adam Rooney - Solihull Moore. Could well have been capped while flying at Aberdeen.
Robbie Brady - 57 caps
Graham Carey - CSKA Sofia
Shane McEleney - Finn Harps
Danny Kearns - Cliftonville
Joe Mason - MK Dons

Maybe Rooney deserved a cap, but all the rest have either (a) come through to the senior squad or (b) barely played above the third tier.

You could run that experiment for a variety of squads but I don't think you'd find too many who got away.

Andy Reid and Gary Doherty both had 80 senior club appearances when he made his international debut. Douglas and Quinn had 50 senior games. We barely have that in the squad at the moment.

So I do think it is the case that we've had very few decent young players coming through, and the questions then have to be asked why that is. Fewer players going to England is one. No professional environment domestically for the past decade or so is another. Poor coaching here is a third. Miguel Delaney in one of his articles says that Irish players don't have the technical ability to step up to the mark in England. I think we're seeing all that come home to roost. And it's a huge job to fix.

Glad to see Graham Carey mentioned. For me, he should have been picked for the Serbia and Luxembourg games. He is a very creative player, not quite Wes Hoolahan, but probably the nearest thing we have to him at the moment.

[tetsujin1979]

Glad to see Graham Carey mentioned. For me, he should have been picked for the Serbia and Luxembourg games. He is a very creative player, not quite Wes Hoolahan, but probably the nearest thing we have to him at the moment.
Might not have been able to travel from Bulgaria. they've had a massive surge in COVID cases recently

[passinginterest]

I'm in the camp of 'cap them if they're showing any promise' and hope for the best. It's what we've seen Wales do, when they went through a terrible time in the doldrums and it eventually paid off. I think the international exposure can only be good for players career development. It has to be easier for an agent to find a club for a promising 20 year old full international, who might be out of contract in the premier league or a top championship side, where he hasn't fully broken through, than for the same player if he's only ever played at under 21 level.

In terms of brining players through, yes the best players from the squads quoted eventually made it to senior level, but I suppose the argument is, they didn't start winning many caps until their later 20s, when they could have been picked in squads and friendlies much sooner, over players who were older but had probably reached their ceiling. Too often when an important player was missing the only alternative would be almost completely untested because the squads had so little turnover and so little opportunity was given to alternative in friendlies or even nations league more recently.

On a related note, maybe it was another thread where the number of our players not starting after the international break was pointed out, are we at a point where we need to worry a bit less about the level players are at and more about the ones playing regularly and in form? Would we be better having a form League One forward in the squad, like Scully, than a Long who's hardly kicking a ball? Obviously the very top level players might get away with not playing all the time (Coleman might be the only example we have at the moment) but outside of that, is there any real benefit to picking a player with a few minutes off the bench in the Championship over a player in form and flying fit in a lower league or a European League or even the League of Ireland?

[zero]

I'm sure stats can be found to contradict me but I feel there's a big gap between L1 and championship standard. Last year Rotherham, Wycome and Coventry were promoted from L1. They are 3 of the bottom 4 clubs in the championship at the time of writing (ok Rotherham do have a few games in hand).

I've mentioned seperately that Collins and Paddy Madden had formidable scoring records in L1 that didn't translate to the championship. Obviously there are lots of other factors...

[RiffRaff]

Glad to see Graham Carey mentioned. For me, he should have been picked for the Serbia and Luxembourg games. He is a very creative player, not quite Wes Hoolahan, but probably the nearest thing we have to him at the moment.

Did he play under Kenny for Bohs?

[passinginterest]

I'm sure stats can be found to contradict me but I feel there's a big gap between L1 and championship standard. Last year Rotherham, Wycome and Coventry were promoted from L1. They are 3 of the bottom 4 clubs in the championship at the time of writing (ok Rotherham do have a few games in hand).

I've mentioned seperately that Collins and Paddy Madden had formidable scoring records in L1 that didn't translate to the championship. Obviously there are lots of other factors...

No doubt there's a gap in quality, but the question is, especially with Kenny's extremely demanding high tempo press (no coincidence we've died in the second half of most games), do we need players who are fit and in form more than players who might be a better quality but are not playing?

[pineapple stu]

I think if we're debating the merits of a second-tier sub and a third-tier starter, then we're definitely starting to understand why we're struggling against the likes of Luxembourg...

[passinginterest]

I think if we're debating the merits of a second-tier sub and a third-tier starter, then we're definitely starting to understand why we're struggling against the likes of Luxembourg...

Unfortunately, I think that's genuinely where we're at. We have one regular top half premier league player. A few who are in and out of bottom half teams or on the books of top half teams. A few championship regular starters and outside of that there's not a lot. Unless there's a lot more players starting next season in the premier league and the championship, it's a legitimate question as to what's going to work better for the team. Subs, barely playing at a higher level, or fit and in form players from a lower level? Sadly, we don't have many players who are undroppable, especially at the highest level.

[pineapple stu]

Yeah, I don't disagree with that alright - and to me, it indicates a problem that can't be fixed by changing manager or by capping younger players earlier. We mayn't be following best practice in those regards, but our issues are way more fundamental. And will probably take longer to fix too.

[mark12345]

Did he play under Kenny for Bohs?

Can't remember to be honest.

[Charlie Darwin]

No, it was Fenlon who signed him.

[EalingGreen]

it's a little of A and a little of B.

John Egan was ready years before he was used. Going back to the days of Trap, Coleman and McClean and McCarthy were underused in their early years. Certainly had O'Neill been more aggressive with Declan Rice, he'd be an Irish player now, perhaps Grealish too. Matt Doherty was 21 when O'Neill took over. He was probably ready in the October or November windows in 2014 (age 22) and yet he made his debut in 2018 (age 26). He tended to persist with older players (thinking Stephen Ward, Daryl Murphy etc.) when there were opportunities to integrate younger options. It meant that guys who should have been competing for places in the first team were only arriving in the squad uncapped and in their prime. Arguably a dysfunctional 21s didn't really help, promising players like Jack Byrne were abandoned in favour of non-leaguers like Connor Dimaio

It seems Kenny has been more aggressive with guys like Molumby than managers in the past were. Picking Idah and Parrott over the likes of Hogan and Maguire is probably something previous managers wouldn't have

<EDIT FYI wrote that before reading your last post>I think you may be overlooking two crucial factors when comparing O'Neill/Kenny and their attitude to youth.

When O'Neill took over, Delaney knew that the FAI's finances were looking sick. So he will have given O'Neill one instruction, and one only: Qualify for the Euro's (for the money). Which is why O'Neill took little interest in bringing through players for the future.

While Kenny may have been told (or worked out for himself) that short of an absolute catastrophe, the FAI can't afford to sack him. Therefore he knows he's got time to work with the youngsters, which suits his preferred approach anyhow.

[samhaydenjr]

I think that's more of the same overestimating of young players though. Until they start establishing themselves as first-team players at a suitable level (top two tiers in England) then they're just prospects.

Let's go back to the summer of 1998 and make the same point -

Goalkeepers
Derek O'Connor; Paul Whelan; Alex O'Reilly; Dean Delaney; Joe Murphy;
David Madden

Defenders
David Worrell; Robbie Ryan; Colin Hawkins; Aidan Lynch; David Whittle;
Thomas Heary; Keith Doyle; Richard Dunne; Jason Gavin; Barry Quinn;
Ryan Casey; John Thompson; Keith Foy; Jim Goodwin; John O'Shea;
Dessie Byrne; Brian O'Callaghan; Ian Rossiter

Midfielders
Stephen Murphy; Niall Inman; John Burns; Micky Cummins; Thomas Morgan;
Damien Duff; Alan Kirby; Stephen McPhail; Ronnie O'Brien; Alan Quinn;
Paul Donnelly; Richie Partridge; Andy Reid; Shaun Byrne; Brendan McGill;
Liam Miller; Jonathan Douglas; David Warren; Kevin Grogan

Forwards
Neale Fenn; Glen Crowe; Dessie Baker; Trevor Molloy; Gary Doherty;
Ger Crossley; Robbie Keane; Liam George; David Freeman; David McMahon;
Graham Barrett

Many of those names are forgotten now. Really only four - O'Shea, Dunne, Duff and Keane - were mainstays at international level. Three were squad players - Doherty, Miller, Reid. A few made a handful of caps. Most never made it at all.

Yet that's the three squads from the U20 World Cup in 1997 (semi-final), U-18 European championships in 1998 (winners) and U-16 European championships in 1998 (winners)

And of that, Duff and Keane were already being talked up and were way ahead of anyone we have now. Keane had scored 11 goals in his first senior season with Wolves, and Duff was one of the youngest, if not the youngest, players at the U20 World Cup; he was still eligible for the 1999 competition, at which some commentators reckoned Ireland had the best chance out of all the European teams. (In the event, only Spain went further than us)

That's a good place to make a comparison, Stu, as it was the last time we had sustained success at underage level, which you do really need to talk about a "golden generation". So I do have a few points to make:
- I think this group overachieved at underage level under Kerr - I ran through the names on Wikipedia and found that of the 54 from those squads, by my count 22 never looked close to becoming established professionals at elite level, while I chose all 71 on my list on the basis that I can see a reasonable pathway to them playing Championship football by the end of next year.
- True, only four from that group became international mainstays, but that was enough to propel us to qualification for two major tournaments (three if you count the contribution of Keane and O'Shea to Euro 2016 qualification). And it would have probably been more but for the fallout from Saipan. Of the group I have listed, I would say I am confident that the following will be good enough to play at international level:
Goalkeepers
Caoimhín Kelleher; Gavin Bazunu; Max O'Leary

Defenders
Mark McGuinness; Dara O'Shea; Andrew Omobamidele; Nathan Collins; Ryan Manning;

Midfielders
Jayson Molumby; Joe Hodge; Will Smallbone; Will Ferry; Conor Coventry; Jason Knight; John Joe Patrick Finn;

Forwards
Aaron Connolly; Evan Ferguson; Mipo Odubeko; Troy Parrott; Adam Idah; Anthony Scully; Michael Obafemi;

So that's essentially a full squad and I think a number of the others will also break through, just not sure which ones in particular
- And one final thing, in response to those who might think that the likes of Dan Crowley or Chiedozie Ogbene should be ruled out because they've dropped to League One, I will note that Wes Hoolahan was playing in League One just before he turned 27, while Conor Hourihane didn't play at Championship level until he was 25

So based on that, I think there is still reason to be optimistic about the National team for the next decade, in spite of recent disasters

[pineapple stu]

Certainly it was a golden generation, and certainly you could hardly accuse Kerr of having underachieved. And yes, the likes of Aidan Lynch or Thomas Morgan were never going to trouble the national team. But they were decent squads nonetheless; we were also semi-finallists at a couple of tournaments at the same time and that's all too much to be pure chance. I think by any objective analysis, it was a stronger underage batch than today.

But I think the lesson from any generation of players - and we're talking players in a 3-year range here, give or take - is that they rarely if ever deliver such a glut of players as you're talking up there. There'll be Richie Partridges or Kevin Grogans or Barry Quinns. I'm not sure you say Joe Hodge has a reasonable chance of playing Championship football in the next 18 months when he's currently on loan at Derry at the bottom of the LoI. (Just to pick one example)

I do think things will get worse but that they will then improve. Part of the problem is that while there are more decent young players out there than there has been in a while, they're being asked to step up too soon. Parrott and Bazunu and Connolly and Travers others wouldn't be close to the squad in ordinary circumstances. They'll all improve - not necessarily to the required standard. I just worry the improvement, when it comes, will only be enough to lift us up to moderate third seeds.

[CSAD]

Certainly it was a golden generation, and certainly you could hardly accuse Kerr of having underachieved. And yes, the likes of Aidan Lynch or Thomas Morgan were never going to trouble the national team. But they were decent squads nonetheless; we were also semi-finallists at a couple of tournaments at the same time and that's all too much to be pure chance. I think by any objective analysis, it was a stronger underage batch than today.

But I think the lesson from any generation of players - and we're talking players in a 3-year range here, give or take - is that they rarely if ever deliver such a glut of players as you're talking up there. There'll be Richie Partridges or Kevin Grogans or Barry Quinns. I'm not sure you say Joe Hodge has a reasonable chance of playing Championship football in the next 18 months when he's currently on loan at Derry at the bottom of the LoI. (Just to pick one example)

I do think things will get worse but that they will then improve. Part of the problem is that while there are more decent young players out there than there has been in a while, they're being asked to step up too soon. Parrott and Bazunu and Connolly and Travers others wouldn't be close to the squad in ordinary circumstances. They'll all improve - not necessarily to the required standard. I just worry the improvement, when it comes, will only be enough to lift us up to moderate third seeds.


You do realize most of that batch were semi finalists in the Euros in 2019 at u19 level...and that’s even while missing 15 players to pre season, nostalgia is a beautiful thing. Also we’re Quarter finalists on 2 occasions as u17 players losing out to the winners in 2018 and runners up in 2017.

We need to analyze these players as if they are bananas, some of these young players who are in league one for instance aren’t bad prospects, they are just very green bananas that need time to grow.

To people worried about Parrott let me remind you 2 of the 4 strikers in England’s squad (Calvert-Lewin and Watkins) were playing league 2 at the same age, for some players they just need more time to grow but once that happens they may end up being the tastiest bananas of them all, not every kid is going to be Robbie Keane and scorig goals regularly at 17, some will need a bit more time.

[pineapple stu]

You do realize most of that batch were semi finalists in the Euros in 2019 at u19 level...and that’s even while missing 15 players to pre season, nostalgia is a beautiful thing. Also we’re Quarter finalists on 2 occasions as u17 players losing out to the winners in 2018 and runners up in 2017.
That's a fair point (though we were a bit lucky to get that far in 2017 after losing 7-0 to Germany in the groups).

I still think the previous golden generation achieved more than the current crop of bananas, and we need to be realistic about the attrition rate at this level. And I don't disagree at all that the guys need time to ripen at the moment.

[sadloserkid]

You can absolutely expect all bananas to ripen. Expecting the same of footballers is foolhardy stuff.

[CSAD]

That's a fair point (though we were a bit lucky to get that far in 2017 after losing 7-0 to Germany in the groups).

I still think the previous golden generation achieved more than the current crop of bananas, and we need to be realistic about the attrition rate at this level. And I don't disagree at all that the guys need time to ripen at the moment.

We were but it was even enough between the 3 teams behind Germany and we got some good fortune there.

They achieved more but at the same time it’s arguably tougher now to do well as almost all the big nations have got a grip with their youth development in recent years. The only way to truly compare the lot is to see where they end up in the prime of their careers as right now you are comparing players who have finished their careers with kids who have barely begun theirs in a completely different environment to when the previous group developed. Saying the current group is better is being positive whereas saying they are worse is being negative, the realistic view is they are developing and need time to do so and until then all we are doing is guessing as no one knows how things will turn out.

[CSAD]

You can absolutely expect all bananas to ripen. Expecting the same of footballers is foolhardy stuff.

Not all footballers but the example is some are taking longer to develop than others but that doesn’t mean they won’t be top players, it means they are just taking longer to get there and until they hit their prime no one knows where they will end up.

[pineapple stu]

as almost all the big nations have got a grip with their youth development in recent years.
I think this is a key issue and one I keep leaning towards.

I don't think it's really that big nations (or indeed medium ones) have gotten a grip on their youth development - we beat Germany and Italy in those two Euro finals, and lost to Argentina in the WC semis - but rather that we've fallen far behind. I think our model of shipping players to England when they're 16 is woefully outdated (and indeed harder now with Brexit). Most other countries (a) have proper youth development plans in place which the SFAI seem to think are below them and (b) have a professional domestic environment for players to start into before moving abroad. This latter has the dual benefit of giving players more first-team football (including European football, potentially) at a younger age and of generating funds to reinvest into the domestic game.

For me, that's the single biggest issue facing us at the moment. I know things are changing in the past while, but I'm not sure they've changed enough to give too much confidence for the future yet.

[sadloserkid]

Not all footballers but the example is some are taking longer to develop than others but that doesn’t mean they won’t be top players, it means they are just taking longer to get there and until they hit their prime no one knows where they will end up.

I agree. This is why I think stuff like the post above (not yours) suggesting that we have 70 or so players likely to break through to Championship level football by the end of next season is fanciful stuff.

[Charlie Darwin]

I think our model of shipping players to England when they're 16 is woefully outdated
And is probably a part explanation for why so few of Kerr's kids made it as professionals.

[SkStu]

Did he play under Kenny for Bohs?

No, Kenny left Bohs in 2005 and Carey played for us a lot later than that.

[CSAD]

I think this is a key issue and one I keep leaning towards.

I don't think it's really that big nations (or indeed medium ones) have gotten a grip on their youth development - we beat Germany and Italy in those two Euro finals, and lost to Argentina in the WC semis - but rather that we've fallen far behind. I think our model of shipping players to England when they're 16 is woefully outdated (and indeed harder now with Brexit). Most other countries (a) have proper youth development plans in place which the SFAI seem to think are below them and (b) have a professional domestic environment for players to start into before moving abroad. This latter has the dual benefit of giving players more first-team football (including European football, potentially) at a younger age and of generating funds to reinvest into the domestic game.

For me, that's the single biggest issue facing us at the moment. I know things are changing in the past while, but I'm not sure they've changed enough to give too much confidence for the future yet.

I don’t agree because look at Portugal,England,France,Italy in recent years compared to 10-15 years ago.

I think getting the top prospects abroad is the right idea as if you look at other nations who wouldn’t be considered top nations, most of their players go abroad when they are 16-17 years old, what’s key is they open their horizon and go to a place where they will develop.

[CSAD]

I agree. This is why I think stuff like the post above (not yours) suggesting that we have 70 or so players likely to break through to Championship level football by the end of next season is fanciful stuff.

I’d replace likely with potentially, some might be ready and some might need more time because no one has a clue when they will be ready, like for all we know Evan Ferguson might become a superstar next season for Brighton and all of a sudden is consider the next wonder kid of world football, in reality nobody knows what will happen so making predictions of where a player will be in the future is crazy at this moment.

[SkStu]

I agree. This is why I think stuff like the post above (not yours) suggesting that we have 70 or so players likely to break through to Championship level football by the end of next season is fanciful stuff.

I didnt interpret that original post to be making as bold a claim as that. Just that there is "cause for optimism" is how i remember it being phrased. I dont think that statement is fanciful if you take a look at the players current profiles and the sheer number involved in the 70 that are starting already for teams in Champ or L1 or having been loaned out by parent Prem clubs as promising players.

I think generally Stu is also right in that we can still expect the net benefit to the national team to be relatively low overall (although id venture we'd be looking to at least 10 or 11 of those names to become MNT regulars - in addition to those already in there) and the ceiling not quite as high as compared to previous crops.

[Olé Olé]

I agree. This is why I think stuff like the post above (not yours) suggesting that we have 70 or so players likely to break through to Championship level football by the end of next season is fanciful stuff.

Did the poster actually say or imply that? I took from it that the poster was implying that surely there's a decent return on the 70 players i.e. a portion could break through to Championship level football.

Shows the perils of posting anything remotely optimistic- always open to hype merchant accusations.

[sadloserkid]

I’d replace likely with potentially, some might be ready and some might need more time because no one has a clue when they will be ready, like for all we know Evan Ferguson might become a superstar next season for Brighton and all of a sudden is consider the next wonder kid of world football, in reality nobody knows what will happen so making predictions of where a player will be in the future is crazy at this moment.

Evan Ferguson might also get injured, or stall badly. In short he's as likely to be the next Richie Partridge as he is the next Damien Duff. I hope it's the latter obviously but I just think it's stretching optimism to breaking point to think that we can predict with any sense of authority which pathway he eventually takes. And even if he escapes the Partridge route and becomes the next Anthony Stokes I don't think that necessarily improves us either. We're in agreement though that making predictions of where a player will be in the future is, while fun, somewhat of an exercise in imagination.


I didnt interpret that original post to be making as bold a claim as that. Just that there is "cause for optimism" is how i remember it being phrased. I dont think that statement is fanciful if you take a look at the players current profiles and the sheer number involved in the 70 that are starting already for teams in Champ or L1 or having been loaned out by parent Prem clubs as promising players.

I went back to check because, to be fair, I was very much paraphrasing. So the original post said the following:

"a list of players who I would consider realistic young candidates to be playing at a high enough level in a year and a half to be considered for the national team. I based it on a number of loose and probably imperfect criteria: Under 25; Playing for, or being included in, first-team squads at League One or above in England, SPL in Scotland or a top European league (plus young players in lower divisions on loan from bigger clubs); Playing U23 but having made a quick jump recently from U18s or having skipped that level altogether."

and

" I know a lot of these lads will not become Premier League stars in the next 18 months, but hopefully a significant number of them will establish themselves in the top two tiers in England, or equivalent, allowing us to have a significantly stronger squad by then."

Now I'm not naturally the most optimistic of individuals and I'll cheerfully acknowledge that I've somewhat overstated the scope of the original claim in my previous post but I can't see a situation where even half of that list are established in the top two tiers in England or at a similar standard (and even if they are that leaves us in more or less the same boat that we're in at the moment anyway). Or course there's every reason to believe that some of them will. And even numbers alone suggest that you're right in thinking that a dozen or so will become regular members of the international squad. I don't doubt that a handful or so will become really good players. And I'm not aiming to be the ghost at the feast either, I just feel that there's a bit of people assuming that just because we're sitting in a restaurant and we know it has a kitchen that the food is going to be delicious.