Group 4 Spreadsheet

[tetsujin1979]

Updated with the weekend's results - http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Group4.zip

[eirebhoy]

Assuming everyone beats the 2 minnows, am I right in thinking that a win and a draw from our 2 home games will guarantee us 2nd place (and probably 1st place if even 1 result goes our way)?

[tetsujin1979]

A win tomorrow, plus a win and a draw in our last home games, coupled with a win away to Cyprus gives us 20 points.

Ireland's remaining fixtures:
Faroes away
France home
Cyprus away
Swiss home

France's remaining fixtures:
Faroes home
Ireland away
Swiss away
Cyprus home

Switzerland's remaining games
Israel home
Cyprus away
France home
Ireland away

Israel's remaining games
Swiss away
Faroes away
Faroes home

Assume the top 4 win all their remaining games against the bottom 2 (not entirely unreasonable)
Ireland will have 16 points
France will have 16 points
Israel will have 17 points
Switzerland will have 15 points

Ireland's remaining fixtures:
France home
Swiss home

France's remaining fixtures:
Ireland away
Swiss away

Switzerland's remaining games
Israel home
France home
Ireland away

Israel's remaining games
Swiss away

Assume we draw with France and beat Switzerland:
Ireland 20 points
France 17 points
Switzerland 15 points
Israel 17 points

1 - Switzerland lose to France and Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 20 points
Switzerland 15 points
Israel 20 points
3 teams on 20 points, goal difference decides who goes through

or
2 - Switzerland beat France and lose to Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 17 points
Switzerland 18 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second

or
3 - Switzerland lose to France and beat Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 20 points
Switzerland 18 points
Israel 17 points
Ireland qualify with France, goal difference to decide 1st and second

Assume we draw with Switzerland and beat France
Ireland 20 points
France 16 points
Switzerland 16 points
Israel 17 points

1 - Switzerland lose to France and Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 19 points
Switzerland 16 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second

2 - Switzerland beat France and lose to Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 16 points
Switzerland 19 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second

3 - Switzerland lose to France and beat Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 19 points
Switzerland 19 points
Israel 17 points
Ireland qualify, goal difference/results decide 2nd spot between France and Switzerland

so if we do get a draw and a win, only one combination of results - Switzerland losing to both France and Israel could see us out, and even then only on goal difference.

Basically we cannot afford to lose any game left in the qualifying series.
And my head hurts!!

[NeilMcD]

I think the most likely outcome is that we draw with France at home and go into the last game knowing that a win will put us through and a draw will put us out or in the playoffs depending on goal difference etc. I am preparted to go into the last game knowing a win will put us through. Can you imagine Lansdowne Road that night.

[Countyman]

If we draw with france and beat the swiss we should win the group outright
but only if the swiss and french draw with each other.

..ah to hell with it lets just win all the bloody games and be done with it :)

[Stuttgart88]

I'm sure your head does hurt. Get back to your play station :)

Put another way, 20 points (including a draw against France) will WIN us the group outright unless

(a) There's a positive result between Switzerland & France

(b) Israel beat Switzerland which will give them 20 points (& my suspicion is we'll have a better GD than Israel)

If in (a) Switzerland beat France they could realistically get to 21 points. If France beat Switzerland France would move to 20 points and as they still have the minnows at home I'd guess their GD will be better than ours.

Even if we lose to France we'll secure second as long as (a) Isreal don't win in Switzerland or (b) Switzerland doesn't beat France.

It's hard to believe but there's still some room for error here. Or put another way, I'd still have us as favourites to finish at least second.

But we'll win all 4 anyway.

[Curtains]

Tetjusin no wonder your head hurts. I feel an awful lot better after reading your assessment of the results. The one combination that could see us out is the swiss losing to both france and israel. I cant see them losing to israel at home. Itll be an interesting next 4 months. It will go down to the last game against the swiss. We owe them a good hiding and to put them out aswell would be great. NB That away trip to cyprus we have could be a crucial game going into the final one with swiss especially with the french playing the swiss on the same day. :o

[yablazer]

it looks pretty certain that its gona go down to goal difference based on that. we need a big result 2mor nite, cuz i reckon the french will give faroes a good hiding in paris, and the swiss beat them 6 nil.

I know its stupid talk but makes you sick thinkin that if we had held on in israel for a win, and beaten them on sat like we shud hav, we probably could hav lost to both france and the swiss and still hav gone through, dpending on results. But i know... wont matter cuz wer gona beat them anyway

[SeanieBoy]

[QUOTE=tetsujin1979]A win tomorrow, plus a win and a draw in our last home games, coupled with a win away to Cyprus gives us 20 points.

Fair play Tetsujin, agree that if Swiss draw with France & we beat the Swiss & draw with France we will have 20 points assuming we beat Faroes & Cyprus. Still looks good for us...

[dancinpants]

We can still make the playoffs by winning 3 and allowing for a defeat at the hands of France. But that would hinge on ourselves and France beating the Swiss and the Swiss beating Israel.

[holidaysong]

Do a few second place teams go through as best runner ups or are all second placed teams into a playoff?

Best second place will hardly come from our group anyway with all the draws....

[Metrostars]

Do a few second place teams go through as best runner ups or are all second placed teams into a playoff?

Best second place will hardly come from our group anyway with all the draws....

The two best second placed teams automatically qualify. With the results so far that would appear to be the loser of Holland/Czech Rep and Croatia/Sweden or maybe Poland/England.

Also what is the tiebreaker if teams are level? Is it goal difference or head to head results?

[gimbly]

tetsujin1979

thank you so much for that mammoth effort.....saved me a job...i feel on top of the world now after being as low as i've ever been after an irish result....i agree that we will draw with france and absolutely hockey the swiss on the last day..its our destiny to go to germany and its the swiss' destiny to realise that their temporary hold on the top of the table is only that...temporary

cheers mate ;)

[onenilgameover]

I have us top of the group from the Swiss on goal difference by 1 goal!

We beat France 1 0 al la Holland 2001 and draw with the swiss 3 3 on the last nail biting day...

The Swiss and French Draw.

We beat The Faroes 3 1 and Cyprus 4 nil...Fingers crossed anyway

Israel lose to the Swiss...God damn that would be good....

[Irish Pride]

I have us top of the group from the Swiss on goal difference by 1 goal!

We beat France 1 0 al la Holland 2001 and draw with the swiss 3 3 on the last nail biting day...

The Swiss and French Draw.

We beat The Faroes 3 1 and Cyprus 4 nil...Fingers crossed anyway

Israel lose to the Swiss...God damn that would be good....

How did you come with that may i ask??? :o
now the 3-3 with the swiss.....can you tell me were we 3-0 up after 30minutes only for Kerr to change it and for us to let the swiss back in with 3 goals.lol....that would be funny. :p

And McAteer is going to come out of international retirement for the France game and score the winner 4 years on from the Holland game.....WOW.

But i would love Israel to go to the World Cup.....could you imagine.

[onenilgameover]

Can see another freaky night scaring the **** out of us with loads of goals. I'm thinking of going on the waiting list for another heart just thinking bout it but I can see it happening. The france match is gonna be the cagey one. With everything to play for there will be goals in the Swiss one.
Israel will not go the World Cup and World cup will be better for it.

[Littlest Hobo]

A win tomorrow, plus a win and a draw in our last home games, coupled with a win away to Cyprus gives us 20 points.

Ireland's remaining fixtures:
Faroes away
France home
Cyprus away
Swiss home

France's remaining fixtures:
Faroes home
Ireland away
Swiss away
Cyprus home

Switzerland's remaining games
Israel home
Cyprus away
France home
Ireland away

Israel's remaining games
Swiss away
Faroes away
Faroes home

Assume the top 4 win all their remaining games against the bottom 2 (not entirely unreasonable)
Ireland will have 16 points
France will have 16 points
Israel will have 17 points
Switzerland will have 15 points

Ireland's remaining fixtures:
France home
Swiss home

France's remaining fixtures:
Ireland away
Swiss away

Switzerland's remaining games
Israel home
France home
Ireland away

Israel's remaining games
Swiss away

Assume we draw with France and beat Switzerland:
Ireland 20 points
France 17 points
Switzerland 15 points
Israel 17 points

1 - Switzerland lose to France and Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 20 points
Switzerland 15 points
Israel 20 points
3 teams on 20 points, goal difference decides who goes through

or
2 - Switzerland beat France and lose to Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 17 points
Switzerland 18 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second

or
3 - Switzerland lose to France and beat Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 20 points
Switzerland 18 points
Israel 17 points
Ireland qualify with France, goal difference to decide 1st and second

Assume we draw with Switzerland and beat France
Ireland 20 points
France 16 points
Switzerland 16 points
Israel 17 points

1 - Switzerland lose to France and Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 19 points
Switzerland 16 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second

2 - Switzerland beat France and lose to Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 16 points
Switzerland 19 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second

3 - Switzerland lose to France and beat Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 19 points
Switzerland 19 points
Israel 17 points
Ireland qualify, goal difference/results decide 2nd spot between France and Switzerland

so if we do get a draw and a win, only one combination of results - Switzerland losing to both France and Israel could see us out, and even then only on goal difference.

Basically we cannot afford to lose any game left in the qualifying series.
And my head hurts!!

Best piece I've read in ages :) My head is also hurting now :p

[eirebhoy]

The Swiss will beat Israel in Basel, tehy`re an ordinary team and will be found out shortly
Israel are on par with the Swiss. Home advantage might give it to the Swiss though we'll all be hoping for a draw I'm sure. :)

[Littlest Hobo]

A win tomorrow, plus a win and a draw in our last home games, coupled with a win away to Cyprus gives us 20 points.

Ireland's remaining fixtures:
Faroes away
France home
Cyprus away
Swiss home

France's remaining fixtures:
Faroes home
Ireland away
Swiss away
Cyprus home

Switzerland's remaining games
Israel home
Cyprus away
France home
Ireland away

Israel's remaining games
Swiss away
Faroes away
Faroes home

Assume the top 4 win all their remaining games against the bottom 2 (not entirely unreasonable)
Ireland will have 16 points
France will have 16 points
Israel will have 17 points
Switzerland will have 15 points

Ireland's remaining fixtures:
France home
Swiss home

France's remaining fixtures:
Ireland away
Swiss away

Switzerland's remaining games
Israel home
France home
Ireland away

Israel's remaining games
Swiss away

Assume we draw with France and beat Switzerland:
Ireland 20 points
France 17 points
Switzerland 15 points
Israel 17 points

1 - Switzerland lose to France and Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 20 points
Switzerland 15 points
Israel 20 points
3 teams on 20 points, goal difference decides who goes through

or
2 - Switzerland beat France and lose to Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 17 points
Switzerland 18 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second

or
3 - Switzerland lose to France and beat Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 20 points
Switzerland 18 points
Israel 17 points
Ireland qualify with France, goal difference to decide 1st and second

Assume we draw with Switzerland and beat France
Ireland 20 points
France 16 points
Switzerland 16 points
Israel 17 points

1 - Switzerland lose to France and Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 19 points
Switzerland 16 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second

2 - Switzerland beat France and lose to Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 16 points
Switzerland 19 points
Israel 20 points
Ireland qualify with Israel, goal difference to decide 1st and second

3 - Switzerland lose to France and beat Israel
Ireland 20 points
France 19 points
Switzerland 19 points
Israel 17 points
Ireland qualify, goal difference/results decide 2nd spot between France and Switzerland

so if we do get a draw and a win, only one combination of results - Switzerland losing to both France and Israel could see us out, and even then only on goal difference.

Basically we cannot afford to lose any game left in the qualifying series.
And my head hurts!!


Well either you've nicked it or your that Joe McCarthy bloke from the Soccercentral website.
Keep up the good work :cool:

[tetsujin1979]

Well either you've nicked it or your that Joe McCarthy bloke from the Soccercentral website.
Keep up the good work :cool:

Nope, it's me, I posted the same thing in the soccercentral message board, and the site admin published it on the main site.

[Littlest Hobo]

Nope, it's me, I posted the same thing in the soccercentral message board, and the site admin published it on the main site.

Should be pickin up a few royalties from it soon :cool:
Stick in the overtime for that effort.
;)

[Stuttgart88]

Hey, your that Joe McCarthy bloke from the Soccercentral website.
Keep up the good work :cool:

My God Tetsujin, you've been outed!

The more I look at this we really still have a lot of the advantages.

come on lads - DELIVER.

[Stuttgart88]

Can anyone dig up the group table & results for qualification for Euro '88?

We drew two home games (Belgium & Scotland), lost to Bulgaria away & beat them at home, beat Scotland away, beat Luxembourg away & only barely beat them at home.

One goal from Gary Mackay later - delerium.

Only asking 'cos I think our performance this time around is close enough to back then & it could all hinge on the most unpredictable of events. I'd also like to know how Belgium, Scotland & Bulgaria did against each other.

[Littlest Hobo]

Can anyone dig up the group table & results for qualification for Euro '88?

We drew two home games (Belgium & Scotland), lost to Bulgaria away & beat them at home, beat Scotland away, beat Luxembourg away & only barely beat them at home.

One goal from Gary Mackay later - delerium.

Only asking 'cos I think our performance this time around is close enough to back then & it could all hinge on the most unpredictable of events. I'd also like to know how Belgium, Scotland & Bulgaria did against each other.

Heres our results from those qualifiers:

14-OCT-87 DUBLIN (Republic of Ireland) Ireland Republic vs. Bulgaria 2:0 (0:0)
09-SEP-87 DUBLIN (Republic of Ireland) Ireland Republic vs. Luxembourg 2:1 (1:1)
28-MAY-87 LUXEMBOURG (Luxembourg) Luxembourg vs. Ireland Republic 0:2 (0:1)
29-APR-87 DUBLIN (Republic of Ireland) Ireland Republic vs. Belgium 0:0
01-APR-87 SOFIA (Bulgaria) Bulgaria vs. Ireland Republic 2:1 (1:0)
18-FEB-87 GLASGOW (Scotland) Scotland vs. Ireland Republic 0:1 (0:1)
15-OCT-86 DUBLIN (Republic of Ireland) Ireland Republic vs. Scotland 0:0
10-SEP-86 BRUSSELS (Belgium) Belgium vs. Ireland Republic 2:2 (1:1)

Here's Belgiums Results
11-NOV-87 BRUSSELS (Belgium) Belgium vs. Luxembourg 3:0 (1:0)
14-OCT-87 GLASGOW (Scotland) Scotland vs. Belgium 2:0 (1:0)
23-SEP-87 SOFIA (Bulgaria) Bulgaria vs. Belgium 2:0 (1:0)
29-APR-87 DUBLIN (Republic of Ireland) Ireland Republic vs. Belgium 0:0
01-APR-87 BRUSSELS (Belgium) Belgium vs. Scotland 4:1 (1:1)
19-NOV-86 BRUSSELS (Belgium) Belgium vs. Bulgaria 1:1 (0:0)
14-OCT-86 LUXEMBOURG (Luxembourg) Luxembourg vs. Belgium 0:6 (0:3)
10-SEP-86 BRUSSELS (Belgium) Belgium vs. Ireland Republic 2:2 (1:1)

And Bulgaria's

11-NOV-87 SOFIA (Bulgaria) Bulgaria vs. Scotland 0:1 (0:0)
14-OCT-87 DUBLIN (Republic of Ireland) Ireland Republic vs. Bulgaria 2:0 (0:0)
23-SEP-87 SOFIA (Bulgaria) Bulgaria vs. Belgium 2:0 (1:0)
20-MAY-87 SOFIA (Bulgaria) Bulgaria vs. Luxembourg 3:0 (2:0)
30-APR-87 LUXEMBOURG (Luxembourg) Luxembourg vs. Bulgaria 1:4 (0:0)
01-APR-87 SOFIA (Bulgaria) Bulgaria vs. Ireland Republic 2:1 (1:0)
19-NOV-86 BRUSSELS (Belgium) Belgium vs. Bulgaria 1:1 (0:0)
10-SEP-86 GLASGOW (Scotland) Scotland vs. Bulgaria 0:0


The beginning of our love affair with the beautiful game eh:D

[livehead1]

just seen this on a website, its a fella who has calculated possible permutations that may happen and seems quite sensible and its highly likely that one of the many things he has calculated will happen, take a look

http://www.soccercentral.ie/viewstory.asp?id=15057&mainheading=Republic+of+Ireland&viewstory=yes

[Fergie's Son]

Interesting analysis and one I happen to agree with.

Here is how I see (hope?) it happens.

We beat the Faroes.

We beat Cyprus.

We draw with France.

We beat the Swiss in Dublin.

This will leave us on 20 points.

Then I see the group shaking out thusly:

The Swiss beat the Israeli's so they are no longer a factor.

The French and Swiss draw.

We beat the Swiss but the French top the group.

[Stuttgart88]

I don't believe it. Our very own Tetsujin1979 has actually gone and plageurised the work of a guy on soccercentral. Disgraceful! :)

[Stuttgart88]

Thanks, so it actaully looks like in that group the big teams did actually do more than just draw with each other all the time.

[Littlest Hobo]

Interesting analysis and one I happen to agree with.

Here is how I see (hope?) it happens.

We beat the Faroes.

We beat Cyprus.

We draw with France.

We beat the Swiss in Dublin.

This will leave us on 20 points.

Then I see the group shaking out thusly:

The Swiss beat the Israeli's so they are no longer a factor.

The French and Swiss draw.

We beat the Swiss but the French top the group.

But this would leave the group like this:

Ire P10 Pts 20
Swiss P10 Pts 19
Fra P10 Pts 18
Israel P10 Pts 17

Can see the swiss draw with israel and the other results remain the same leaving:

Ire P10 Pts 20
Fra P10 Pts 18
Isr P10 Pts 18
Swiss P10 Pts 17

If we draw last game, then everyone ends on 18pts. Goal Difference is the key. The french have both minnows at home to come and israel have the faroes twice as well. Interesting :confused: :eek: :D :( :confused:

[Baker]

Great work Tetjusin, things dont look quite so bad now!!

With so may of the permutations involving goal difference deciding who goes through lets hope we can knock in a good few tonight!

[geysir]

nd.
Also what is the tiebreaker if teams are level? Is it goal difference or head to head results?

AFAIR if two teams are even on points, its the head to head results which count first. That may put a spanner into Tetsujin's calculations.

Although I do not gamble I sometimes have a look at the betting odds for games and the groups. I see that France are odds on 5/6 to win the group, Irel 5/2 then down the line to Swiss 6/1 ? and Israel 11/1.

For Israel the odds look tempting but basically that's an 11/1 for the double, Israel to beat Swiss away and Irel have to draw with France.

Would you agree that France at this stage with 2 big away games are worth the odds on 5/6 to top the group? Personally I don't..

[geysir]

Also what is the tiebreaker if teams are level? Is it goal difference or head to head results?

To be more precise.

2 teams level on points

a, its the head to head results
if the same then
b, goal difference on the head to head games
if the same then
c, goal difference over all the group games.

So away goals do not count should Irel be level with Isr at the end of the group.

[stojkovic]

Heres our results from those qualifiers:

14-OCT-87 DUBLIN (Republic of Ireland) Ireland Republic vs. Bulgaria 2:0 (0:0)
09-SEP-87 DUBLIN (Republic of Ireland) Ireland Republic vs. Luxembourg 2:1 (1:1)
28-MAY-87 LUXEMBOURG (Luxembourg) Luxembourg vs. Ireland Republic 0:2 (0:1)
29-APR-87 DUBLIN (Republic of Ireland) Ireland Republic vs. Belgium 0:0
01-APR-87 SOFIA (Bulgaria) Bulgaria vs. Ireland Republic 2:1 (1:0)
18-FEB-87 GLASGOW (Scotland) Scotland vs. Ireland Republic 0:1 (0:1)
15-OCT-86 DUBLIN (Republic of Ireland) Ireland Republic vs. Scotland 0:0
10-SEP-86 BRUSSELS (Belgium) Belgium vs. Ireland Republic 2:2 (1:1)

Two of the worst games I have ever seen.

[tetsujin1979]

Spreadsheet updated with the result from wednesday - here (http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Group4.zip)

I've updated and rewrote the group permutations post from the other day, taking into account we beat the Faroes. I forgot to include the possibility of Switzerland beating both France and Israel in those games. It does change the complexion of the final table a little. But if we get a win and a draw from the final 2 games, we will at least be in the play offs.

Check it out here - http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Permutations.html

Any miscalculations or mis-sortings, please inform me straight away and I'll update the table accordingly

[dynamo kerry]

what if we draw with france and swiss?

[Stuttgart88]

Great work.

I still think we can afford to lose to France as long as the Swiss lose to them too (& Israel don't win in Basle). We'd still hobble into second by beating the Swiss.

Let me check again though.

[eirebhoy]

Aye, good work but I think the most likely result between France and Switzerland is a draw and thats not on that page.

[brine3]

with a draw against france and a win against the swiss we're assured 2nd and are probably favourites for 1st

[gustavo]

correct me if im wrong but if we draw france and win other 2 games and france and swiss draw and all other results go normally we will top the group

[Stuttgart88]

That's right

[Stuttgart88]

Are there any bookies in our midst?

If they're available, take the bookies' odds on each of the games involving the top 4 sides.

Apply those odds to all the combinations of results that would get us in the top 2.

I'd imagine we'd be pretty short odds - at least relative to the other teams -in every case.

Put another way, out of all the possible outcomes, most of the realistic ones favour us getting at least second. No?

Honestly, I even think we can slip up in Cyprus and get at least second.

[tetsujin1979]

Updated with the draw possiblilites, there are now 27 (!!) possibly outcomes, not counting Ireland losing any of the remaining 3 games - I'm not adding them in because, quite frankly, if we do lose any of them, we're out.

http://members.boards.ie/tetsujin1979/Permutations.html

[fergalr]

Brilliant stuff with the speadsheet.

Maybe you can help with a nagging worry I have. According to FIFA regulations (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/t/doc.html):

In the league system the ranking in each group is determined as follows:
(a) greater number of points obtained in all the group matches;
If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above criterion, their ranking shall be determined as follows:
(b) greater number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
(c) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
(d) greater number of goals scored in the group matches between the teams concerned;
(e) goal difference in all the group matches;
(f) greater number of goals scored in all the group matches;
(g) a play-off on neutral ground.

What happens is all the ramaining games between the top 4 are draws? We're already at a disadvantage against Israel as they have a better head to head against us (one more away goal). Will two 0-0s against the Swiss and France be enough for us?

[Stuttgart88]

I don't think away goals can count against us - no mention of it above.

Check this out though:

What happens if?

Swiss & Israel draw
We lose to France
Swiss beats France
We beat Swiss

(or we beat france, France beats Swiss, Swiss beat us)

No clear winner / runner-up can be restablished under the head-to-heads.

I guess group GD will apply. In which case a big win may be necessary!

[noby]

Don't mean to pick holes in your hard work, but:


"If Ireland lose either of the two games, then we are out of the running for qualification, so let's only focus on the 3 remaining possibilities:
1 - Beat France and beat Switzerland
2 - Beat France and draw with Switzerland
3 - Draw with France and beat Switzerland"


i) We can lose one match, say against France and still qualify.

ii) There are 4 remaining possibilities, discounting any loss:
Win / Win
Win / Draw
Draw / Win
Draw / Draw

[livehead1]

our lack of goals against the poorer sides cud b crucial then..

[thejollyrodger]

we need to win all our 3 remaining games. We can do it. we have the players and were at home. i think we will at least win against the swizz and cyprus. i think israel and swiss will draw and im not sure about france swizz game.

[Levantine]

To be more precise.

2 teams level on points

a, its the head to head results
if the same then
b, goal difference on the head to head games
if the same then
c, goal difference over all the group games.

So away goals do not count should Irel be level with Isr at the end of the group.

Actually (and do forgive my insolence in correcting someone on my first post ;) ), according to FIFA's regulations (http://www.uefa.com/newsfiles/19085.pdf):


In the league system, the ranking in each group is determined as
follows:
(a) greater number of points obtained in all the group matches;
If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above criterion,
their ranking shall be determined as follows:

(b) greater number of points obtained in the group matches
between the teams concerned;

(c) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the
teams concerned;

(d) greater number of goals scored in the group matches between
the teams concerned;

(e) goal difference in all the group matches;
(f) greater number of goals scored in all the group matches;
(g) a play-off on neutral ground.

Note (d), which, in case this plague of ties keeps till the end, would put the "top 4" in this order:
Israel - 6 (2 vs. Swiss, 2+1 vs. Ireland, 1+0 vs. France). 1 left to play.
Ireland - 4 (1 vs. Swiss, 1+2 vs. Israel, 0 vs. France ). 2 left to play.
Switzerland - 3 (1 vs. Ireland, 2 vs. Israel, 0 vs. France ). 3 left to play.
France - 1 ( 1 vs. Israel, 0 vs. Ireland, 0 vs. Swiss ). 3 left to play.

Personally, I don't think it would come to that (as great as it'd be to see Israel at the top and France trailing at 4th). I have a feeling that the Swiss would come on top due to great performances against Israel and France.

Oh, and in the interest of proper disclosure: Go Israel! :p

[tricky_colour]

Just been looking at the goal difference thing as there is a good
chance it will come into play in this tight group.


......................MP W D L GF GA Pts GD
Ireland Republic..7 3 4 0 11 4 13 +7
Switzerland....... 6 3 3 0 13 4 12 +9
Israel ...............7 2 5 0 10 8 11 +2
France .............6 2 4 0 5 1 10 +4
Cyprus .............6 0 1 5 4 12 1
Faroe Islands.... 6 0 1 5 3 17 1


Seems we are not doing to bad with just the swiss ahead of us on gola difference.
I am thinking that we could draw against france and still top
the group on goal difference which would be useful.
However drawing againt the swiss would be dangerous as they
are ahead on goal difference.
Still a long way to go though but just trying to make some sense
of the table!

[BobbySands]

I'm one of those who completely lose the rag after awful results like the last 2 Israel matches and starts shouting about how we're crap, Kerr must go, let's hope we get kicked out of this soon to save heartbreak later type histrionics. Takes me a while to let it all go but there you go.

My take on this.....Exactly the way we all assumed at the start. France to top the group and us second. Israel are not good and will lose points, prob against the Faroes. The Swiss are poor also. We should beat them and if we don't I'll be shouting about how we're crap, Kerr has to go etc, etc .

The fact that the group is wide open is testament to the fact that France are in transition and not that good, Switzerland are mediocre and we, despite having one of our better sides in a while, have not shown we're a decent national side.

Like many, I believe that France at some point in this campaign will "come good". By that same token, so will we. Including the draw away against the French we've underachieved. THe time is now........C'mon Ireland.