General Election 2020

[nigel-harps1954]

So, it has been called.

Saturday 8th February.

Strange to be held on a Saturday. Only the second time a General Election will be held on a Saturday in Ireland since the very first Dáil election in 1918.

Bookies have Fianna Fáil installed as favourites.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Fairly likely we'll see a switch of FF becoming larger party, but they'll be well short a majority. Question then is will a coalition (with Labour or the Greens?) be possible, or will it just be "Confidence and supply" with the names reversed. I'd suspect the latter.

Greens will do well, Labour should recover a bit. Sinn Fein should at least hold-steady.

[passinginterest]

Hard to see any real significant changes. Labour haven't done enough to really revitalise but might take a couple more seats. Sinn Féin are in a really strange place and could go either way, seem to have gone a bit stale as have the more hard left parties, although some more of the hard left might move towards SF this time, they seem to be becoming more of a viable option for the middle class left (where Labour has lost out), the outpouring of nationalist sympathies after the RIC commemoration might work in their favour too. Greens should make a few more gains, but unlikely to be as much of an impact as the locals. Soc Dems looked like they had potential but failed to push on and compounded this would some poor decisions in the locals, unlikely to make any ground and none of the other new parties look like taking more than a seat or two. Independents might lose a few which will most likely go Green, or the big two. Hard to see a dramatic rise or fall for either FG or FF, it's bad timing for FG, they've had a run of really awful stuff (swing gate, Verona, broadband, children's hospital, overcrowding, homeless, RIC, rural broadband), I'm sure they'd have liked a few more months to spin their Budget spending on sports grants, roads, infrastructure etc. and to hopefully avoid anymore individual slip ups and to see overcrowding and homeless figures trending downwards. That's likely to see them lose a few seats, with the swing back towards FF for the most part (how soon we forget). As said above, most likely scenario is "confidence and supply" with the roles reversed and FF in the comfy chairs.

[dahamsta]

Fairly likely we'll see a switch of FF becoming larger party, but they'll be well short a majority. Question then is will a coalition (with Labour or the Greens?) be possible, or will it just be "Confidence and supply" with the names reversed. I'd suspect the latter.

That's why we're having an election IMO, they met last week and came to an agreement that confidence and supply between FG and FF will be the result whichever way the wind blows. Of course I don't know that for a fact, but it seems blatantly obvious to me.

At this point I'm not sure it'll make much of a difference. I wasn't keen on Varadkar on becoming Taoiseach because he came across as a bullshirt artist beforehand, but at the outset I didn't think he did too badly. But then the money messages started happening, and that's just inexcusable. Plus of course the health service is still wrecked, housing is still appalling, the roads are still wrecked, etc, etc.

I don't like Fianna Fail, at all, but I think I'd trust Micky Martin at the helm more than Varadkar at this point. Of course that would mean voting for Fianna Fail TD's, and I'm not sure I could bring myself to that. I'm in Cork East though, and generally speaking there's no-one to vote for here, they're all useless, awful, or both.

The next battle to watch for will be Coveney vs. Varadkar. I assume they have a peace treaty, but I'd say Coveney's patience must be waning at this point.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Coveney also looking quite good with his part in Stormont resuming.

RTE had a piece on polls - https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0114/1107344-election-poll-of-polls/ - which could be summed up by saying that very little is likely to change. By their metrics it's actually not all that unlikely that Fine Gael could come out ahead of Fianna Fail by a seat or two.

Haven't a clue who to vote for. Not FG, FF or Labour, I'm still not convinced by Sinn Fein or the hard-left, and Aontu can f**k off. I'd look to the Soc Dems, but their candidate in my constituency is a muppet. No Ind's yet.

[nigel-harps1954]

Donegal will be interesting. Sinn Fein will look to regain two seats after making the disastrous choice to run three candidates last time out. Pearse Doherty is a cert and Padraig MacLochlainn should do well.

Joe Mchugh and Thomas Pringle will fear for their seats. More likely Pringle will get his back than McHugh, who has been a disaster.

Pat The Cope should retain his seat.

Anyones guess after that, although Peter Casey throwing his hat in is an interesting one.

[ForzaForth]

Seanie O'Shea, Chairman of Wexford FC, has been endorsed by Mick Wallace MEP and is standing in the election as an independent.

[Real ale Madrid]

Live in Cork South Central.

The only constituency in the country that elected 2 FF TD's in 2011 in the aftermath of the biggest economic crash the country has ever seen.

With that in mind I'm surprised they don't run a 3rd candidate.

Michael Martin FF
Michael McGrath FF
Simon Coveney FG

All 3 are certs - Donnacha O'Laoghaire is the SF seat holder. Beat off Jerry Buttimer by about 600 votes last time out so i'd imagine the last seat will be between them again. Ciaran Lynch (LAB) went from topping the poll with 12,000 odd first preference votes in 2011 to 2,400 last time - id expect the Lab vote to improve a bit - The Green party had a seat here in the not too distant past as a 5 seat constituency so it is not unimaginable that Lorna Bogue might make some headway but i suspect this may be 5 years too soon with the vote gathering powerhouses at the head of affairs which leaves little for the rest.

[Kingdom]

I don't like Fianna Fail, at all, but I think I'd trust Micky Martin at the helm more than Varadkar at this point.

You can take this request either way from someone who doesn't post in this forum regularly, but can I ask why?


The next battle to watch for will be Coveney vs. Varadkar. I assume they have a peace treaty, but I'd say Coveney's patience must be waning at this point.

I think it's just as likely - possibly moreso, that the next battle will be Martin vs McGrath.

Interesting Mick's address on the EP website is listed as Ferrycarraig Park.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Not exactly a stellar opening day for Fine Gael, with news stories zeroing in attention on homelessness and "law & order". Yet a poll still ranks Leo as the most popular party leader, though not by much.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein will be hoping this doesn't become national news: https://extra.ie/2020/01/15/news/irish-news/sinn-fein-paddy-holohan-leo-varadkar

[Eminence Grise]

Mother of God! He actually said: ‘Someone that knows what it’s like to have kids, maybe, hopefully, boys and girls, so when you’re creating policies and stuff that’s going to go on, you’re like: “right, that makes sense”.'

As opposed to know what it's like to have those things like kids that aren't boys and girls, y'know, maybe, hopefully, unicorns or baby goats because that makes no sense either, but unlike Paddy I never intended it to.

One to many kicks to the head, I think. Always knew MMA was dangerous.

Meanwhile a bad opening day for FG. Instead of expressing concern, Leo turns a story about a homeless man injured when some jobsworth b*****d couldn't be bothered to look inside his tent before removing it with machinery into an attack on the FF Lord Mayor for not doing his job properly, and G-eoghan (G-eoghan, gone) Murphy's equally caring response is to remove his election poster from the scene of the incident. Have I just woken up in a dystopian re-run of the eighteenth century when posh boys and toffs lorded it over the peasants? Varadkar is proving what I've felt all along: that his only competency was avoiding trouble by avoiding doing anything at all, but that doesn't work when you're front and centre as Taoiseach. Promoted too early, like Murphy, Harris and Madigan - proof of the Peter Principle (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/peter-principle.asp) if ever it was needed: the cream will rise till it sours.

Thought for Day 1
FG's election's slogan should be: FG - putting the RIC into P - - - Ks.

[The Fly]

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein will be hoping this doesn't become national news: https://extra.ie/2020/01/15/news/irish-news/sinn-fein-paddy-holohan-leo-varadkar

It'd be a bit of mountain out of a molehill if it did.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein will be hoping this doesn't become national news: https://extra.ie/2020/01/15/news/irish-news/sinn-fein-paddy-holohan-leo-varadkar

There we go: https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0116/1107829-sinn-fein-holohan/

[osarusan]

Paddy Power have FF at 2/9 to win the most seats, with FG at 11/4, and have Michael Martin at 1/5 to be the next Taoiseach, with Varadkar at 3/1.

No idea how they have reached those odds though.

[dahamsta]

You can take this request either way from someone who doesn't post in this forum regularly, but can I ask why?

I've already explained why my trust n Varadker is waning. On Martin I don't think I could pin it down, but I would say that the way he's handled his family difficulties has inspired some confidence.

Again though, I'm not an FF man, and I don't vote in his constituency any more, so it's a moot point. I haven't looked into the candidates down my way yet, but I assume they'll all be the same, and they'll all still be rubbish. There usually isn't a single good candidate, from any party, in Cork East.

[Real ale Madrid]

Paddy Power have FF at 2/9 to win the most seats, with FG at 11/4, and have Michael Martin at 1/5 to be the next Taoiseach, with Varadkar at 3/1.

No idea how they have reached those odds though.

When each constituency is priced up you could get a good look at how the numbers stack up - I did it for the last election and there was only 10 or so seats wrong. They must do a lot of work on it locally. I'll throw up the analysis here when they have the whole thing priced up - only some constituencies priced up so far.

[NeverFeltBetter]

That poll over the weekend really backed up the assertion that the RIC commemoration was one of the most bizarre hills to die on for a government party in the history of the state. It made Varadkar and Flanagan look like morons. Fianna Fail reaping the benefits.

[Kingdom]

Paddy Power have FF at 2/9 to win the most seats, with FG at 11/4, and have Michael Martin at 1/5 to be the next Taoiseach, with Varadkar at 3/1.

No idea how they have reached those odds though.

A guy I work with, put 50€ on FF to win the election at 11/8 about a week ago, and within an hour they were down to 10/11. His understanding is it's a very short market, so a biggish bet would distort the market hugely.


I've already explained why my trust n Varadker is waning. On Martin I don't think I could pin it down, but I would say that the way he's handled his family difficulties has inspired some confidence.
.
I can't/won't comment on the candidates on this forum, and from this pc, but that's a very fair point.

[Real ale Madrid]

When each constituency is priced up you could get a good look at how the numbers stack up - I did it for the last election and there was only 10 or so seats wrong. They must do a lot of work on it locally. I'll throw up the analysis here when they have the whole thing priced up - only some constituencies priced up so far.

All constituencies now priced up - Current state of the parties is

FF - 54 Seats (+7)
FG - 46 Seats (+1)
Sinn Fein - 18 Seats (-4)
Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
Labour - 6 Seats (-1)
SOL-PBP - 3 Seats (-3)
Social Democrats - 2 Seats (NC)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 20 Seats (-3)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacent Currently

I've also done a finger in the air analysis of seats that are up for Grabs according to the odds. So I've made a list of who is in the hunt v the current party in last place - which could show on average a potential down side for each of the main parties

So e.g. I see that FF are still from an odds perspective "In the hunt" for 11 more seats, whereas they are in last place in the betting in 7 seats (ie 3rd in a 3 seat , 4th in a 4 seat etc)

FF in the hunt for 11 seats, and in last place for 7 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
FG in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 11 seats ( slight potential downswing)
SF in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 6 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
Lab in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
G in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
SOL / PBP in the hunt for 2 more seats and last place in 1 area
Independants in the hunt for 6 more seats, and in last place for 8 seats ( Potential downswing )

Very unscientific I realize but it does show for example according to the odds makers anyway that the Greens will win 9 seats at a minimum - and could pick up a few more. FF could win 60 seats on a good day but as little as 47 if things go wrong in the meantime.

[Kingdom]

All constituencies now priced up - Current state of the parties is

FF - 54 Seats (+7)
FG - 46 Seats (+1)
Sinn Fein - 18 Seats (-4)
Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
Labour - 6 Seats (-1)
SOL-PBP - 3 Seats (-3)
Social Democrats - 2 Seats (NC)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 20 Seats (-3)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacent Currently

I've also done a finger in the air analysis of seats that are up for Grabs according to the odds. So I've made a list of who is in the hunt v the current party in last place - which could show on average a potential down side for each of the main parties

So e.g. I see that FF are still from an odds perspective "In the hunt" for 11 more seats, whereas they are in last place in the betting in 7 seats (ie 3rd in a 3 seat , 4th in a 4 seat etc)

FF in the hunt for 11 seats, and in last place for 7 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
FG in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 11 seats ( slight potential downswing)
SF in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 6 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
Lab in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
G in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
SOL / PBP in the hunt for 2 more seats and last place in 1 area
Independants in the hunt for 6 more seats, and in last place for 8 seats ( Potential downswing )

Very unscientific I realize but it does show for example according to the odds makers anyway that the Greens will win 9 seats at a minimum - and could pick up a few more. FF could win 60 seats on a good day but as little as 47 if things go wrong in the meantime.

Good man RAM.

I spent 3 nights stupidly looking at the various constituencies. SF have the scope to really make that big push.
Its really make or break time for the Soc Dems. It's possible - an outside chance - that they could get to 4 or 5 seats, but if they don't gain, then the left Labour, Soc Dems, some independents, really need to sit down and talk to each other. Because it's weakening politics in a very small country.

FWIW, I have it as FF 52, FG 44, SF 24, Lab 8 & Greens 9. Some of the final seat calls are really tight and it's an absolute coin-toss, yet some other "rural" constituencies are so set, then it's nearly a waste having the election.
Take Mayo. Alan Dillon shouldn't be a TD, no disrespect to him. But if he gets any decent wedge of Kenny's core vote, he'll be elected. Yet McHugh would likely lose out if Dillon gets elected, which again is unfortunate.

[Real ale Madrid]

SF will do well to beat 22 seats. Since I did my totals Padraig Mac Lochlainn has moved from out of the top 5 into 4th fav in a 5 seater (Donegal) leaving the 5th seat up for grabs between FF/Ind. Pat the Cope Gallagher / Tomas Pringle although an opinion poll shows a 4 point gap in fav of FF.
That would see SF up to 19 according to the bookies. The bookies can get the odd seat wrong but I can't see any scenario where SF get higher than the last time, but they are still in there swinging in a lot of places.

McHugh is 1 I like also but she has an uphill battle according to the oddsmakers - lying 6th in a 4 seat

Mayo - to win a seat (PP)
Calleary FF 1/20
Ring FG 1/20
Chambers FF 1/8
Dillon FG 4/6
Mulhern FG 4/6
McHugh G 2/1
Rose Conway-Walsh SF 13/5
50/1 Bar the rest.

[NeverFeltBetter]

If SD's return with just two they really should throw their hat at it. Gannon really should pick up a seat in Dublin Central though.

Similarly, Aontu are dead in the water with just Toibin returned. He claimed they were aiming to win 20+ council seats last year, they ended up with four, one of them in the north. Now he's saying they're aiming to win five TD's (previously he said seven), but from where? Toibin losing his seat is not impossible. If that happens its just Renua all over again.

[nigel-harps1954]

SF will do well to beat 22 seats. Since I did my totals Padraig Mac Lochlainn has moved from out of the top 5 into 4th fav in a 5 seater (Donegal) leaving the 5th seat up for grabs between FF/Ind. Pat the Cope Gallagher / Tomas Pringle although an opinion poll shows a 4 point gap in fav of FF.
That would see SF up to 19 according to the bookies. The bookies can get the odd seat wrong but I can't see any scenario where SF get higher than the last time, but they are still in there swinging in a lot of places.

McHugh is 1 I like also but she has an uphill battle according to the oddsmakers - lying 6th in a 4 seat

Mayo - to win a seat (PP)
Calleary FF 1/20
Ring FG 1/20
Chambers FF 1/8
Dillon FG 4/6
Mulhern FG 4/6
McHugh G 2/1
Rose Conway-Walsh SF 13/5
50/1 Bar the rest.

As I see it, MacLochlainn is a shoe in. Pearse Doherty will be elected on the first count, MacLochlainn will get all his 2nd preference votes and will take most of Inishowens first preference himself.

It'll be a battle between Charlie McConalogue and Thomas Pringle for the 5th seat I think. Could be wrong on that, but the general feeling I'm getting around here anyway.

[Real ale Madrid]

It'll be a battle between Charlie McConalogue and Thomas Pringle for the 5th seat I think. Could be wrong on that, but the general feeling I'm getting around here anyway.

McConalogue topped the poll in 2016 so if FF are under pressure it will be Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher who would be affected. McConalogue is 1/8 to win a seat while Gallagher sits at about 5/6.

[nigel-harps1954]

I know yeah, it's probably just from my own circles more than a general consensus, but McConalogue has been extremely quiet since elections and has only seemingly resurfaced this past few weeks ahead of election time.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Is Peter Casey a non-factor?

[Real ale Madrid]

Is Peter Casey a non-factor?

12/1 to win a Seat in Donegal - currently 8th in the betting (5 seater ) will poll ok but not a factor to win a seat id imagine.
Also running in Dublin West - 12/1 there as well. I'd imagine he won't poll as well there. Weird place to run - top heavy with high profile candidates.

[nigel-harps1954]

Is Peter Casey a non-factor?

More chance of a month of snow in the Sahara desert.

[backstothewall]

SF under performed similar poll number in 2016, which will be a concern for them, but if they get close to hitting the numbers suggested in these polls it's hard to see how the fail to make decent gains. You just can't increase your vote by 50% and not make gains somewhere. They certainly shouldn't be losing any seats (apart from Dublin Mid-West), and the second seat in Donegal should be a formality.

In 2016 their support base had a feel of being a mile wide and an inch deep, but it seems different this time. The The usual attacks about the Ra in the last week won't have the same impact without Adams in charge either. If their do put a decent increase on it won't be the same in all counties. There will be really big jumps in some counties and more modest ones in others. Where they get those big increases they'll maybe case a few upsets.

But it all depends on them hitting the numbers the pollsters are giving them.

[NeverFeltBetter]

12/1 to win a Seat in Donegal - currently 8th in the betting (5 seater ) will poll ok but not a factor to win a seat id imagine.
Also running in Dublin West - 12/1 there as well. I'd imagine he won't poll as well there. Weird place to run - top heavy with high profile candidates.

Dublin West is my constituency, and yeah, he'll get nowhere there. Even his stated goal of taking votes off Varadkar wont work out, more likely he'll take them off FF's Jack Chambers. Am pleasantly surprised he seems to be a non-entity in Donegal though.

[Real ale Madrid]

If SD's return with just two they really should throw their hat at it. Gannon really should pick up a seat in Dublin Central though.


Niall O Tuathail is making serious headway in Galway - sitting at 12% in a TG4 opinion poll and he still sits at 5/6 to win a seat so i've had some of that! 4 seats would be a good return for them I think and that looks more realistic now.



SF under performed similar poll number in 2016, which will be a concern for them, but if they get close to hitting the numbers suggested in these polls it's hard to see how the fail to make decent gains. You just can't increase your vote by 50% and not make gains somewhere. They certainly shouldn't be losing any seats (apart from Dublin Mid-West), and the second seat in Donegal should be a formality.

In 2016 their support base had a feel of being a mile wide and an inch deep, but it seems different this time. The The usual attacks about the Ra in the last week won't have the same impact without Adams in charge either. If their do put a decent increase on it won't be the same in all counties. There will be really big jumps in some counties and more modest ones in others. Where they get those big increases they'll maybe case a few upsets.

But it all depends on them hitting the numbers the pollsters are giving them.

Yeah - maybe I'm being a bit too pessimistic with regards SF and their seats - i'll re-do the calcs again tomorrow and again on the 6th Feb to see where they sit. The slight problem they have is they are not as transfer friendly in places as perhaps some other parties and seem to be in a lot of tight races for last seats. Big opportunity for them over the next week.

[Kingdom]

As I see it, MacLochlainn is a shoe in. Pearse Doherty will be elected on the first count, MacLochlainn will get all his 2nd preference votes and will take most of Inishowens first preference himself.

Bang on there, that's how I see it.


It'll be a battle between Charlie McConalogue and Thomas Pringle for the 5th seat I think. Could be wrong on that, but the general feeling I'm getting around here anyway.
If FF had any worries on McConalogue he wouldn't be a prime shadow. He'll be Agri Minister if they are in government. I see it how RAM sees it.


McConalogue topped the poll in 2016 so if FF are under pressure it will be Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher who would be affected. McConalogue is 1/8 to win a seat while Gallagher sits at about 5/6.

1. Doherty
2. McConalogue
3. MacLochlainn
4. McHugh
5. Gallagher/Pringle

Casey makes it interesting, how much will he take away from Pringle (if at all) nigel?

[nigel-harps1954]

Casey will take nothing from Pringle. He's the only genuine candidate in the south of the county and Casey is looking for a very different vote to Pringle.

Pringle is, outside of Doherty, the most active TD in Donegal. Has done superb work for an independent, and I think that'll be reflected in the vote. He's an easy number 1 for independent voters in Donegal.

The only thing that harms his chances is the split of constituency boundaries with Ballyshannon/Bundoran area. If it weren't for that split in the last general election, he would have been elected much quicker.

[backstothewall]

I had a look there. I came away with

FF 50
FG 40
SF 27
Green 7
Lab 8
PBP-AAA 5
SocDems 5
Ind/Other 18

Grand coalition looks the only option if it's anything like that.

[Real ale Madrid]

All constituencies now priced up - Current state of the parties is

FF - 54 Seats (+7)
FG - 46 Seats (+1)
Sinn Fein - 18 Seats (-4)
Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
Labour - 6 Seats (-1)
SOL-PBP - 3 Seats (-3)
Social Democrats - 2 Seats (NC)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 20 Seats (-3)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacent Currently

I've also done a finger in the air analysis of seats that are up for Grabs according to the odds. So I've made a list of who is in the hunt v the current party in last place - which could show on average a potential down side for each of the main parties

So e.g. I see that FF are still from an odds perspective "In the hunt" for 11 more seats, whereas they are in last place in the betting in 7 seats (ie 3rd in a 3 seat , 4th in a 4 seat etc)


FF in the hunt for 11 seats, and in last place for 7 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
FG in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 11 seats ( slight potential downswing)
SF in the hunt for 10 seats, and in last place for 6 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
Lab in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
G in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 0 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
SOL / PBP in the hunt for 2 more seats and last place in 1 area
Independants in the hunt for 6 more seats, and in last place for 8 seats ( Potential downswing )

Very unscientific I realize but it does show for example according to the odds makers anyway that the Greens will win 9 seats at a minimum - and could pick up a few more. FF could win 60 seats on a good day but as little as 47 if things go wrong in the meantime.

Ok 1 week on - a good week (according to the odds) makers for SF , a bad one for SOL/PBP

They say:

FF - 55 Seats (+8 From 2016)
FG - 44 Seats (-1)
Sinn Fein - 23 Seats (+1)
Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
Labour - 7 Seats (NC)
SOL-PBP - 1 Seats (-5)
Social Democrats - 3 Seats (+1)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 16 Seats (-7)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacant Currently

Same logic as before as regards who is still in contention for seats....

FF in the hunt for 12 seats, and in last place for 9 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
FG in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 10 seats ( slight potential downswing)
SF in the hunt for 6 seats, and in last place for 4 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
Lab in the hunt for 6 seats, and in last place for 3 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
G in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 2 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
SOL / PBP in the hunt for 4 more seats and last place in no area
Independents in the hunt for 11 more seats, and in last place for 4 seats ( Potential upswing )

SF now in position to win a 2nd seat in Donegal, Louth and Dublin Mid-West according to PP.
They now have SOL-PBP outside the seats everywhere except Richard Boyd Barrett in Dún Laoghaire but are still in the hunt in all 5 seats they hold. Paul Murphy is still in with a shout in Dublin South West also - he's listed in my total as an independent.

FF/SF would have 78 seats between them in this model......

This is not my analysis but merely what the bookies are predicting. Will post again next Thursday

[backstothewall]

Sunday Times Poll

FF 23%;
SF 21%;
FG 19%;
GP 10%;
LP 5%;
SD 5%;
SPBP 5%;
Others 11%;

Health warnings apply as Panelbase have no history in Ireland, but it certainly doesn't suggest the SF momentum is stalling.

[backstothewall]

The convention wisdom this week has been that SF don't have enough candidates. Based on those numbers my thoughts would be that FF & FG have too many. There's going to be a load of places where the lone SF candidate tops to poll and gets to sit in the count centre and relax watch count after count of FF & FG candidates with single figure percentages taking lumps out of each other.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'm reading that poll was carried out online, so I'm not sure how much trust should be placed in it.

Still, would be quite the result if replicated on polling day. A left coalition could out-seat FF/FG.

[NeverFeltBetter]

The convention wisdom this week has been that SF don't have enough candidates. Based on those numbers my thoughts would be that FF & FG have too many. There's going to be a load of places where the lone SF candidate tops to poll and gets to sit in the count centre and relax watch count after count of FF & FG candidates with single figure percentages taking lumps out of each other.

If this was to be the case on election day, the thing that could really upset the applecart is the SF transfers, which presumably will be going to the likes of Sol-PBP, like-minded Independents, the Greens, Soc Dems and Labour (in that order I'd imagine) before hitting FF and FG. Could be a tonne of surprises Sunday week.

[backstothewall]

I'm reading that poll was carried out online, so I'm not sure how much trust should be placed in it.

Still, would be quite the result if replicated on polling day. A left coalition could out-seat FF/FG.

Red C have it even worse for the civil war parties...

FF 24
SF 24
FG 21

SF generally underperform their poll numbers but they would have to be spectacularly wrong this time for them not to make big gains.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Good lord, that kind of poll will throw up an extraordinary result. Even with Sinn Fein not running enough candidates, they'd be looking at low to mid thirties, easy.

Unfortunately, the government I would envision coming out of such a result would probably be a full on FF/FG coalition, with the Greens or Labour or like-minded Inds propping them up.

That's after Coveney and Kelly take over FG and Lab respectively of course. And Martin would be looking over his shoulder too.

[backstothewall]

Labour don't matter anymore. That's over. There's enough space for 1 or 2 centre left parties in this country. We have at least 4. Only way back is realignment of the centre left.

[BonnieShels]

After that debate tonight I'm dreading the idiocy of the electorate giving us Taoiseach Martin. Petrified.

[dahamsta]

I didn't see the debate, care to expand upon that?

[NeverFeltBetter]

I think there was a lot of Martin acting as if voting for every FG budget for the last few years doesn't make him at all culpable in the government's failings.

[sbgawa]

Mary Lou imploded.
Wouldn't answer the question when repeatedly asked why she wouldn't support the special criminal court.
Did'nt seem able to explain her economic policies and how they would be funded.
Finally Mirriam O Callaghan read out the exact words used by the Shin Fein guy up North saying the guy who was murdered by the IRA (PAul Quinn) and she stuttered and stumbled and said that wasn't her recollection .
Car crash stuff but i wonder will it change anything

[Real ale Madrid]

Mary Lou imploded.
Wouldn't answer the question when repeatedly asked why she wouldn't support the special criminal court.
Did'nt seem able to explain her economic policies and how they would be funded.
Finally Mirriam O Callaghan read out the exact words used by the Shin Fein guy up North saying the guy who was murdered by the IRA (PAul Quinn) and she stuttered and stumbled and said that wasn't her recollection .
Car crash stuff but i wonder will it change anything

Didn't do great but it was hardly an implosion. She was caught out on the Paul Murphy thing alright insofar as she went on TV the day before and denied he said anything.
But SF are not going to change their stance on the SCC in the middle of an election campaign.

[sbgawa]

Then she should have answered the question by saying we don't agree with it because of XY and Z.
refusing to answer played into the hands of people who think SF are against it because of their mates in the IRA.

Hopeless display of obfuscation and a lack of grasp on economic detail but SF are marmite so i dont think it will cost her with the already committed.
The next poll will be interesting.
I predict a stall not a fall

[backstothewall]

Having watched the debate I've learned SF have connections to the Ra.

Imagine my shock.

I don't usually vote for them up here but I'd probably canvass for them if I lived in the 26 counties

[osarusan]

Having watched the debate I've learned SF have connections to the Ra.


The question of just how strong and influential those questions are is a genuine one.

There was a disucssion on a radio show recently (I forget which one) and an FF politician made the point that, with SF, you never know what shadowy council might need to approve a particular deal, and where the real power in the party lies. There was a SF politician who was given the chance to respond, but instead of saying something about no connections, or transparency, he said something like 'we all have our advisors.'

He had an opportunity to put distance between them, but didn't/couldn't.

A lot of people will take those connections seriously. I'm one person who will anyway.