Slovakia v Republic of Ireland - 8th October 2020 - Euro 2020 Playoff Semi Final

[Eirambler]

So it's Slovakia. They're currently struggling against Azerbaijan and are certainly no world beaters.

On the other side of the draw Bosnia have been poor as well and Germany are currently giving NI the hosing that's been coming their way for a while.

Qualification definitely looks a bit more doable with Wales now out of the picture, although we could do with us/Slovakia getting the home draw for the playoff final.

[Insidetherock]

maybe we're not going to Bratislava after all.

Im reading elsewhere that an Emergency Panel in UEFA can change the order of Paths, and Ireland may yet be moved up to Path A, and with good reason.

The competition rules state that only the four group winners in each section, cannot be moved to a higher group, which in Path B, is Bosnia.

All of the other 3 left, can technically be moved.

Now, it might seem obvious with only 4 teams left in Path B, that these 4 should make up the semis.

However, as on one team is left in Path A, and one of the top 4 in Path C, Finland has also qualified, it looks like Path A will be made up of

Iceland, Isreal, Hungary, Romania (assuming Bulgaria take Finlands place)

This means that the 6th ran Path C team will get a home semi final draw, while Ireland who ranked 7 places higher than them must play away.

I think Ireland have a case to demand being pushed up to Path A and taking the next available home semi final, as the only three teams ranked above them, will already have semis.

Path A should then be completed by the two lowest ranking team eligible to play off, Hungary and Romania, to give Iceland the best chance as a Path A team.

By my accounting, Path A should be

Iceland v Romania
Ireland v Hungary

Path B

Bosnia v Isreal
Slovakia v N Ireland

Path C

Scotland v Isreal
Serbia v Bulgaria

This is the fairest outcome

[tricky_colour]

Wow I never heard of anything so complicated in my life.


It is insane.

[Diggs246]

If we are getting Slovakia is it defo on the 26th???

[SkStu]

maybe we're not going to Bratislava after all.

Im reading elsewhere that an Emergency Panel in UEFA can change the order of Paths, and Ireland may yet be moved up to Path A, and with good reason.

The competition rules state that only the four group winners in each section, cannot be moved to a higher group, which in Path B, is Bosnia.

All of the other 3 left, can technically be moved.

Now, it might seem obvious with only 4 teams left in Path B, that these 4 should make up the semis.

However, as on one team is left in Path A, and one of the top 4 in Path C, Finland has also qualified, it looks like Path A will be made up of

Iceland, Isreal, Hungary, Romania (assuming Bulgaria take Finlands place)

This means that the 6th ran Path C team will get a home semi final draw, while Ireland who ranked 7 places higher than them must play away.

I think Ireland have a case to demand being pushed up to Path A and taking the next available home semi final, as the only three teams ranked above them, will already have semis.

Path A should then be completed by the two lowest ranking team eligible to play off, Hungary and Romania, to give Iceland the best chance as a Path A team.

By my accounting, Path A should be

Iceland v Romania
Ireland v Hungary

Path B

Bosnia v Isreal
Slovakia v N Ireland

Path C

Scotland v Isreal
Serbia v Bulgaria

This is the fairest outcome

This is a bigger mood-killer than VAR.

[backstothewall]

maybe we're not going to Bratislava after all.

Im reading elsewhere that an Emergency Panel in UEFA can change the order of Paths, and Ireland may yet be moved up to Path A, and with good reason.

The competition rules state that only the four group winners in each section, cannot be moved to a higher group, which in Path B, is Bosnia.

All of the other 3 left, can technically be moved.

Now, it might seem obvious with only 4 teams left in Path B, that these 4 should make up the semis.

However, as on one team is left in Path A, and one of the top 4 in Path C, Finland has also qualified, it looks like Path A will be made up of

Iceland, Isreal, Hungary, Romania (assuming Bulgaria take Finlands place)

This means that the 6th ran Path C team will get a home semi final draw, while Ireland who ranked 7 places higher than them must play away.

I think Ireland have a case to demand being pushed up to Path A and taking the next available home semi final, as the only three teams ranked above them, will already have semis.

Path A should then be completed by the two lowest ranking team eligible to play off, Hungary and Romania, to give Iceland the best chance as a Path A team.

By my accounting, Path A should be

Iceland v Romania
Ireland v Hungary

Path B

Bosnia v Isreal
Slovakia v N Ireland

Path C

Scotland v Isreal
Serbia v Bulgaria

This is the fairest outcome

I'd fancy our chances against Hungary or Iceland

But are Romania any good these days?

Also. Can it go to penalties? Is it worth naming Dave O'Leary on the bench just in case?

[samhaydenjr]

Quick look at Slovakia: Dubravka of Newcastle is their 'keeper, good backline with a couple of Serie A players, one in the Bundesliga, one in La Liga, similar in midfield actually plus Hamsik, formerly of Napoli, but their frontline looks light. Rest of the squad plays mostly for middling teams around Europe. It looks doable, particularly if McCarthy, Brady and Long are back as viable options and two from Connolly, Parrott and Obafemi are playing regularly (and scoring). But everyone will have to be near their best, individually, and they'll have to click collectively also. At least now McGoldrick, Robinson, Maguire and Collins have all broken their international ducks.

[geysir]

maybe we're not going to Bratislava after all.

Im reading elsewhere that an Emergency Panel in UEFA can change the order of Paths, and Ireland may yet be moved up to Path A, and with good reason.
Where are you reading?

[tricky_colour]

I hear the draws will be determined by quantum entanglement.

[SkStu]

Goals scored in each game throughout the NL and qualifying campaign will be converted to the Kelvin scale and totals will be used to assign seeding for the tournament. A bold move.

[geysir]

Goals scored in each game throughout the NL and qualifying campaign will be converted to the Kelvin scale and totals will be used to assign seeding for the tournament. A bold move.
You fell for the insidetherock scenario, now you're a gullible ex pat trying to extricate yourself from the deranged by resorting to add in gobbeldygook into the mix. You and insidetherock are as one.

[seanfhear]

I hear the draws will be determined by quantum entanglement.
My Cat ; Schrodinger looks a little confused about that !

[Fixer82]

What the hell is going on? I did pass maths in my Leaving Cert. This is just cruel

[davidatrb]

I don’t know where that came from. But according to their rules Ireland won’t be moved.

b. If four or more teams from a league enter the play-offs, a path with four teams from the league in question must be formed.

16.03 b

https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/54/36/05/2543605_DOWNLOAD.pdf

The committee can still have a say in stuff like seeding principles and hosts restrictions. But don’t think they can or will mess with 1 of the only 2 fundamental rules that they published.

[Tipp Townie]

pretty sure Path B - ours - is set. We'll be away to Slovakia.
So is Path D, with the minnows.

Paths A and C will need a draw to decide where Bulgaria, Israel, Romania and Hungary go.
If I were them I'd prefer Path A.

[Tipp Townie]

Quick look at Slovakia: Dubravka of Newcastle is their 'keeper, good backline with a couple of Serie A players, one in the Bundesliga, one in La Liga, similar in midfield actually plus Hamsik, formerly of Napoli, but their frontline looks light. Rest of the squad plays mostly for middling teams around Europe. It looks doable, particularly if McCarthy, Brady and Long are back as viable options and two from Connolly, Parrott and Obafemi are playing regularly (and scoring). But everyone will have to be near their best, individually, and they'll have to click collectively also. At least now McGoldrick, Robinson, Maguire and Collins have all broken their international ducks.

I watched the Wales game away in Slovakia last month. They've some tidy players but yep are definitely beatable. I felt Wales should have beaten them, although Wales' attacking options are far better than ours.

[davidatrb]

I’ve done a bit of digging and ELO make Slovakia favourite vs Ireland and it makes sense along with the comments on this thread (how you’ve seen them play, and what level/league their players are at). Away ELO gives us 35% chance win vs Slovakia.

But its actually good news on the other teams, both ranked well below both Slovakia and Ireland.

When I run all the figures I get:

To Qualify
Slovakia 35%
Bosnia 30%
Ireland 20%
N. Ireland 15%

We go up to 25% if we would have home advantage for the final. We are better than Bosnia but they have a better chance of qualifying still now because they get the easier semi and home advantage in that semi.

I’m not sure exactly how accurate ELO predictions are but probably the best estimate we can get so far ....

[I see PP have predictions up as well, they are way too short on Bosnia in my opinion.]

[IsMiseSean]

Path B

Bosnia v Isreal
Slovakia v N Ireland

Path C

Scotland v Isreal
Serbia v Bulgaria


I know Israel likes stealing other people's land, but now they're taking another country's playoff place.

[BonnieShels]

My brain has been done in since Monday with this.

What are the circumstances that we get a home final, Us and the themmuns win is it?

[Insidetherock]

My brain has been done in since Monday with this.

What are the circumstances that we get a home final, Us and the themmuns win is it?

There will be a draw Friday morning, so decide which semi final winners have home advantage in the final

[davidatrb]

My brain has been done in since Monday with this.

What are the circumstances that we get a home final, Us and the themmuns win is it?

No. They will make a draw on Friday to see which winner plays home.

[Insidetherock]

I know Israel likes stealing other people's land, but now they're taking another country's playoff place.

The jammy whores came 6th in Path C

The first 3 go into the Path C play off

Finland qualified automatically

Bulgaria came 5th in Path C, so should have gone up into the 4th spot (though apparently there will be a draw now)

So 6th place Isreal should have been pushed up to Path A, where they would have gotten a home draw

However, if there is now a draw for who stays in Path C, and who goes up to Path A, then technically Romania who finished 8th in Path C, could potentially take the second play off spot in Path A, and get a home play off semi final

Which would be unfair in my opinion

I guarantee you that if John Delaney were still in charge, we'd be gone up to A, playing Romania at home and we'd manage a home final after that too

:)

[BonnieShels]

There will be a draw Friday morning, so decide which semi final winners have home advantage in the final


No. They will make a draw on Friday to see which winner plays home.

Cheers lads

[Eminence Grise]

Reads the thread. Then again, carefully. Considers paracetamol, but really needs IbUEFAprofen...:pill:

[BonnieShels]

Reads the thread. Then again, carefully. Considers paracetamol, but really needs IbUEFAprofen...:pill:

How I missed thee.

[Diggs246]

Fyi lads there is a bus directly from Vienna airport to Bratislava ( 45mins)

[NeverFeltBetter]

Not to look a gift horse in the mouth, but holding a draw for home advantage for a once-off match seems a bit unfair given the expectation was the higher ranked side would be given it. A neutral venue couldn't have been arranged either? Maybe one of the host cities for the actual tournament.

[sparky12345678]

Fyi lads there is a bus directly from Vienna airport to Bratislava ( 45mins)

both ryanair and aerlingus fly to vienna but ryanair also flies to bratislava and its usually cheaper... but i got my Christmas flight home from vienna with ryanair for 16eu

[Razors left peg]

The thing thats annoying me most about these stupid playoffs is that they are not until end of March. I have tickets for the 3 games in Dublin and want to decide if Im booking flights home or selling the damn things!!!!!

[Eminence Grise]

How I missed thee.

A sentiment that's entirely reciprocated.

[Insidetherock]

both ryanair and aerlingus fly to vienna but ryanair also flies to bratislava and its usually cheaper... but i got my Christmas flight home from vienna with ryanair for 16eu

They are already gouging the hole out of the prices for Bratislava the week of the match

[geysir]

What the hell is going on? I did pass maths in my Leaving Cert. This is just cruel

Any maths challenged moron could get a D in Leaving Cert pass maths (I should know).
I think it looks good for Ireland in these play offs. We are emerging from chaos into organised riot mode. There is no Roy in team.

[Fixer82]

Any maths challenged moron could get a D in Leaving Cert pass maths (I should know).
I think it looks good for Ireland in these play offs. We are emerging from chaos into organised riot mode. There is no Roy in team.

Exactly! How is a maths challenged moron like me supposed to understand the absolute clüsterfück that is the UEFA Nations League?

[Insidetherock]

Exactly! How is a maths challenged moron like me supposed to understand the absolute clüsterfück that is the UEFA Nations League?

It's actually a great competition.. and next Autumn, Stephen Kenny will get 6 competitive games to blood in new players and a new system before he starts off the World Cup qualifiers the following March.

All he'll have to do, is ensure he doesn't finish on the bottom of the group and retain the status into the 2022 Nations League and again he'll probably have a play off as worst case scenario to get to Germany 2024.. which in my opinion, should be the real focus of Ireland for the next 4 years..

Screw qualification to Qatar.. if it happens it happens.. but if not, Ireland will have had 20-22 competitive games between now and the Euro 2024 qualifiers (which sounds absolutely mental doesn't it), to ensure we get to that competition

[geysir]

It's actually a great competition.. and next Autumn, Stephen Kenny will get 6 competitive games to blood in new players and a new system before he starts off the World Cup qualifiers the following March.

All he'll have to do, is ensure he doesn't finish on the bottom of the group and retain the status into the 2022 Nations League and again he'll probably have a play off as worst case scenario to get to Germany 2024.. which in my opinion, should be the real focus of Ireland for the next 4 years..

Screw qualification to Qatar.. if it happens it happens.. but if not, Ireland will have had 20-22 competitive games between now and the Euro 2024 qualifiers (which sounds absolutely mental doesn't it), to ensure we get to that competitionQatar is nice in winter and considering the ease of mobility between stadiums, I think it will turn out to be the most fan friendly Finals ever.

[Diggs246]

Qatar is nice in winter and considering the ease of mobility between stadiums, I think it will turn out to be the most fan friendly Finals ever.

What if you are a gay Jewish fan!

[jbyrne]

Qatar is nice in winter and considering the ease of mobility between stadiums, I think it will turn out to be the most fan friendly Finals ever.

surely you are joking??
where is everyone going to stay for a start?

it will be a joke of a venue with many of the matches half full.
part of me would be happy to write it off for us and let us concentrate on building a team for future competitions. whats gone on with the workers is almost as bad as a war crime in my book. giving it to Qatar is the most ridiculous, corrupt decision in the history of awarding these things.

[davidatrb]

It's actually a great competition.. and next Autumn, Stephen Kenny will get 6 competitive games to blood in new players and a new system before he starts off the World Cup qualifiers the following March.

All he'll have to do, is ensure he doesn't finish on the bottom of the group and retain the status into the 2022 Nations League and again he'll probably have a play off as worst case scenario to get to Germany 2024.. which in my opinion, should be the real focus of Ireland for the next 4 years..

Screw qualification to Qatar.. if it happens it happens.. but if not, Ireland will have had 20-22 competitive games between now and the Euro 2024 qualifiers (which sounds absolutely mental doesn't it), to ensure we get to that competition

“The 10 group runners-up would be joined by 2 other teams based on Nations League ranking (either from among all other entrants or just from the group third-placed teams). These 12 teams would play two rounds of single-match playoffs (semi-finals and finals), with the 3 winners qualifying for the World Cup.” -Wikipedia

So only 2 teams getting a chance, not sure it will extend to League C. He is better playing youth teams and experiment the hell out of the NL. Might be an advantage to be relegated in which case we would have virtually a free ticket to Euro 2024 (but we’d be bottom seed so tough group) if they do similar to this Euro we would be in the Path D playoffs with like of Georgia, Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus. NL will also probably be used to seed the qualifying groups though, so relegation would be a disadvantage there.

[davidatrb]

Sorry that is wrong. I forgot there was a format change which put us back in League B. We probably will be in the hunt for one of the extra NL playoff spots for WC22. Will need to finish top 2 in our group and it will probably be enough for a second chance.

[Diggs246]

slovakia 26th March confrimed
www.the42.ie/ireland-nations-league-play-of-opponents-4900317-Nov2019/[/FONT]

[geysir]

surely you are joking??
where is everyone going to stay for a start?

it will be a joke of a venue with many of the matches half full.
part of me would be happy to write it off for us and let us concentrate on building a team for future competitions. whats gone on with the workers is almost as bad as a war crime in my book. giving it to Qatar is the most ridiculous, corrupt decision in the history of awarding these things.
We have the Nations League for building a team for the WC qualifiers. Most every Finals hosts selection has involved levels of corruption. Ridiculous world cup decisions? eg USA 94, fans travel from New York to the baking heat of Orlando for an afternoon game, then back to New York, then god knows where for the knock out round.The WC Final played in daytime in a concrete dry sauna.
Euro 2020, example of one route, last 16 Amsterdam, ->last 8 Baku (36C), -> semi final London.

Qatar - the weather will be perfect, 30 mins travel to any game, can get to 2 games a day at your ease. The stadiums are magnificent and you say half filled? does that mean 'real' fans will be able to get match tickets at face value? Accomodation? do what peoplle usually do, a browser search $50 and up. Beaches are free and English lager louts not welcome. That's paradise.

[geysir]

Exactly! How is a maths challenged moron like me supposed to understand the absolute clüsterfück that is the UEFA Nations League?
No maths involved in order to calculate the chances that UEFA revert to type and pull of a stroke, abandon the facade of transparancy and shift the balance of the draw (hot ball draw) so that the winner of Slov/Irl has home adv in League B final and either Hungary or Bulgaria have home venue in League A final. The desired outcome is that there is host coming out of each play off final or at least the host had home advantage in the final.

[Fixer82]

I don’t like UEFA Nations League. It’s hugely confusing.
Can we not just give more points for friendlies toward a country’s world ranking to do away with the meaninglessness of friendlies?

More points = better seeding for qualification

[Real ale Madrid]

I don’t like UEFA Nations League. It’s hugely confusing.
Can we not just give more points for friendlies toward a country’s world ranking to do away with the meaninglessness of friendlies?

More points = better seeding for qualification

So countries can manipulate thier seeding by selecting a particular frequency and strength of opponents. Like Wales and Romania did pre World Cup 2018 Qualifiers.

https://thesetpieces.com/world-football/beating-system-wales-planned-seeding-success-calculator/

The irony of this is, of course that Wales failed to qualify.

I'm glad of the nations league - its only confusing for teams stuck in the playoffs. How do you avoid playoffs? Qualify Automatically.

[Insidetherock]

I don’t like UEFA Nations League. It’s hugely confusing.
Can we not just give more points for friendlies toward a country’s world ranking to do away with the meaninglessness of friendlies?

More points = better seeding for qualification

Jesus, what's confusing about it Fixer?

It's actually a brilliant league for international teams (though I imagine club managers won't be best pleased with it)


It's this simple. You play a lot more competitive games instead of friendlies.

You play them against teams that are at your own level, more or less.

They offer a promotion route to play teams that are at a higher level, if you can prove you are capable of getting up to that level.

They relegate you if you are not capable of surviving at the level you are at

The play offs will become a lot simpler next time.

[Fixer82]

So countries can manipulate thier seeding by selecting a particular frequency and strength of opponents. Like Wales and Romania did pre World Cup 2018 Qualifiers.

https://thesetpieces.com/world-football/beating-system-wales-planned-seeding-success-calculator/

The irony of this is, of course that Wales failed to qualify.

I'm glad of the nations league - its only confusing for teams stuck in the playoffs. How do you avoid playoffs? Qualify Automatically.

I hadn’t thought of that. So that’s why we played Oman so much over the last few years eh?

Ok so maybe the idea of playing semi-competitive games against teams our own level is not a bad idea but the back-door qualification seems complicated to say the least.

It’s probably not as complex as it seems but I thought it was clear as mud from day one.

Hopefully with a (good) few tweaks it will be something we’ll enjoy over the next number of years.

Four groups of three teams in the same division/group is where I’d start.

Maybe have one game against each team instead of home and away and have two groups of 6. It’ll be only one more game than was played in the group anyway. Winners of each play each other in UEFA Nations league final.

Also, I don’t understand why teams like San Marino or Faroe Islands have as good a chance as us to qualify for the Euros by winning their group.

They’ll go to the finals and get spanked.

It should just be the best 32 teams in Europe in the finals.

[Insidetherock]

Tis hard to know where to start with this post to be honest :)


I hadn’t thought of that. So that’s why we played Oman so much over the last few years eh?

Nah, that was because Oman either gave us a pile of money, or JD owed someone in Oman a big favour from some committee vote or somesuch



Ok so maybe the idea of playing semi-competitive games against teams our own level is not a bad idea but the back-door qualification seems complicated to say the least.

It’s probably not as complex as it seems but I thought it was clear as mud from day one.


I don't know why you keep thinking that the Nations League is some kind of friendly/semi competitive tournament

It's very competitive.. and should become even more so.

The position you finish at the end of the Nations League, determines your seeding for the subsequent major competition.

For example, Ireland finished in third spot in last autumns NL... which put them into Pot 3 when the draw was made. Had Ireland finished above Wales, they would have been in Pot 2, and would have had a significantly easier group than we got in the end in all likelihood

Same will happen next Autumn.. Finish top of your group, you go into Pot 2 for World Cup qualifying, finish 2/3rd you go into Pot 3, but finish 4th you will end up in Pot 4

So you can see how finishing as high as possible in the group can effect subsequent seeding

Also, finish top of the group, and you got up to Pot A next time round, with 2/3 games against the likes of England/Spain/Germany/Italy/Holland etc.. stadium fillers and season ticket sellers




Hopefully with a (good) few tweaks it will be something we’ll enjoy over the next number of years.

Four groups of three teams in the same division/group is where I’d start.


That's what we just had. It's been changed to 4 groups of 4, so that teams don't have empty matchdays



Maybe have one game against each team instead of home and away and have two groups of 6. It’ll be only one more game than was played in the group anyway. Winners of each play each other in UEFA Nations league final.


More games, more money for UEFA and the national associations



Also, I don’t understand why teams like San Marino or Faroe Islands have as good a chance as us to qualify for the Euros by winning their group.

They’ll go to the finals and get spanked.


Doubt Georgia will get spanked that much next year if they qualify as expected from Pot 4




It should just be the best 32 teams in Europe in the finals.

May as well not bother with qualifying at that stage.. leave everyone in

[Fixer82]

I thought they were expanding to 32 teams but I see it’s 24. Was it something that was talked about?

I’d rather not see it expand. 24 seems a bit much even.

[davidatrb]

Also, I don’t understand why teams like San Marino or Faroe Islands have as good a chance as us to qualify for the Euros by winning their group.

They’ll go to the finals and get spanked.

It should just be the best 32 teams in Europe in the finals.

The year that Denmark didn't qualify for the final they did pretty well.

Also Kosovo and Georgia will perhaps do okay, neither were really spanked by anyone in the qualifiers - Georgia capable of getting results against teams like us, Denmark and Switzerland. England gave Kosovo a good going over in one of the matches but I don't think anyone else had much fun against them and England are one of the best teams in Europe. Indeed Kosovo were very close to qualifying without the need of a playoff.

I see the disadvantages and unfairness of letting them have a playoff - but also I think its a positive move to share the pie a bit more.

It will all be different for Euro 24 ... they re-jigged League D so that it is much weaker - I don't imagine they will give them the same opportunity they are giving this time for getting a playoff.

[DeLorean]

Away again in the final if we progress.