Nations League Rules Discussion

[davidatrb]

I think another aspect of the whole thing is that if Spain qualify directly and Ireland by playoff then they get 3 home group games. We only get 2.

That and we would be seeded in Pot 4 for the draw if we get in via playoff. Directly we might be lucky to get Pot 2 but probably Pot 3.

This playoff thing is going to be an absolute nightmare and punish us at every turn. We absolute MUST put everything into direct qualification (as im sure we are).

[tricky_colour]

Insanely complicated.

[pineapple stu]

I see wiki now has a summary of the play-offs too (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_qualifying#Play-offs_2).

So assuming that we come third in the group - because otherwise we don't care - then at present, the play-offs are -

League D
Georgia
North Macedonia
Kosovo
Belarus

League C
Scotland
Norway
Serbia
Bulgaria

League B
Bosnia
Wales
Slovakia
Ireland

League A
Iceland
Northern Ireland (from League B)
Israel (from League C)
Romania (from League C)

[davidatrb]

In that example from pineapple stu - I still believe there is a draw though to pick whether Wales/Slovakia/Ireland or N. Ireland move up from League B into the Iceland Path.

I think its clear from that latest toy the Play-off simulator. If you click Example Scenarios after the teams are picked then it shows a similar example.

What they could also do is make Pots Iceland/Bosnia ... Wales/Slovakia ... Ireland/N. Ireland .... Israel/Romania and so for example you could have Iceland/Wales/Ireland/Isreal in a Path. They have an example like that where they draw based on a seeding principle in one of their press packages. So long as Bosnia cant be drawn with League A team. It would allow them to keep Ireland and Romania apart as well as hosts - I was looking at the Euro 2020 draw process and it looks like it will get fiercely complicated if the host are still in the playoffs so it wont be determined if they qualify at the time, especially if two host are in the same playoff path.

They could basically do anything. The only rules that they have is if 4 teams from a league then they must form a path. And Nations League Group Winners cannot be in a Path with higher League teams.

[pineapple stu]

In that example from pineapple stu - I still believe there is a draw though to pick whether Wales/Slovakia/Ireland or N. Ireland move up from League B into the Iceland Path.
Ah. I missed that.

So any League B winner - Denmark, for example - can't move up; I think that's established.

I had assumed League B would be filled with the top League C teams, but hey, why not add in another draw I guess.

[zero]

what does this mean, can anyone guess?

Competition-related reasons: In order to give host teams a fair chance to qualify for the final tournament, they may be allocated to different paths.

[pineapple stu]

I would say they'll try bias in favour of hosts.

So if there's 3 hosts in League B, they might move one to League A and maximise the chance of all 3 qualifying)

It's daft

[davidatrb]

So any League B winner - Denmark, for example - can't move up; I think that's established.


Yes Denmark or Sweden if involved cannot move up. They might also block Ireland from moving up too if Hungary or Romania have already moved up. To keep the hosts apart.

[davidatrb]

I would say they'll try bias in favour of hosts.

So if there's 3 hosts in League B, they might move one to League A and maximise the chance of all 3 qualifying)

It's daft

Yeah I think it’s daft because by maximizing the chance all 3 hosts qualify you are also maximizing the chance that zero will qualify. And you are punishing the hosts by not allowing them to move to an easier Path because adding restrictions around hosts.

Really uefa don’t want it and the hosts don’t want it. But after reading the draw procedure for the actual Euro 2020 (which is made before the playoffs play out) I think it gets very complicated to draw the teams if 2 or more hosts in the same playoff path. Makes me think they’ll do something to keep them apart.

Denmark or Ireland could be in League B. Scotland will be in League C. Also Romania and/or Hungary might be involved so they’ll try to move those out of Scotland’s path. And then try to block Ireland or Denmark from getting involved with Hungary or Romania.

But it just won’t be possible if 4 hosts are in the A,B and C playoffs. Four into three doesn’t go.

So who knows. I think this UEFA Emergency Panel will be busy.

[zero]

I would say they'll try bias in favour of hosts.

So if there's 3 hosts in League B, they might move one to League A and maximise the chance of all 3 qualifying)

It's daft

i read it like that too, but it is a questionable usage of the word 'fair'.

[davidatrb]

Finland have the same record as Ireland played 7 GD +2 pts 12 (dismissing results vs 6th placed team). But have a better goals scored (we only have 6, they have 10). We would like to beat Denmark by more goals than Finland would beat Greece by - we'd be in danger of being stuck in the bottom Pot otherwise for the Final Tournament Draw.

Hungary/Wales game will be of interest to us too. Hungary could put the magic 5 playoff teams in Path B, but also with a big win could (as Finland above) put Ireland into Pot 4. But will know before they play whether we want a better chance of a nice play off Path or a better chance of a decent seeding.

I think both Finland and Wales/Hungary will have a worse ranking of the 2nd placed teams than Ireland so barring above and assuming we qualify directly then we should be in Pot 3.

[davidatrb]

That Czech defeat decent for Ireland. Czech finish on 8 +2 15. Ireland will beat that with a win vs Denmark. Wales on 11 pts can’t beat 15, and Hungary with -1 GD will unlikely get up to +3.

Pot 3 is a decent advantage and will avoid teams like Portugal Sweden Austria Turkey. Would be maybe Finland.

[Stuttgart88]

There is no draw, that the point, check out page 36 of that poxy pdf.We knew there was a draw on Friday but we didn’t know if this draw was only a draw for home/away play off finalists, or an actual draw determining who fills up higher play off paths than their own. But the conventional wisdom in newspapers and from a guy from ESPN (Dale Johnson, all over twitter this week answering questions about processes and permutations), is that there is indeed a draw. It might still be possible that the play off paths are filled mechanically as per the bouncing balls video making it a moot point but the Irish Times, for example, is offering this scenario:

"Finally, if Wales lose to Hungary then we will have to wait until Friday’s playoff draw at 11am to see whether Ireland will play Wales, Slovakia or Bosnia and Herzegovina although we do know that the fixture will definitely be away from home. This situation also applies if Wales draw and Slovakia unexpectedly slip up against Azerbaijan.
In this situation a draw will take place to decide which of Wales, Slovakia or Northern Ireland will be moved up to fill the remaining playoff slot in League A. Bosnia and Herzegovina cannot be moved to League A as they are league winners and will therefore stay within their path while Uefa also stipulate in their competition regulations that hosts should be given the best chance to advance through the playoffs, meaning that Ireland will remain in the League B path as the only host in that path while Romania will be the hosts in League A and Scotland will be the hosts in League C"

[davidatrb]

I still hold a slim sliver of hope that Ireland will be included in the draw to join Path A.

UEFA media still following that line (see below). But I admit this is probably just some journalists interpretation and when the committee come together to confirm the final intricacies of the draw, they will probably decide on Dale’s version.

By the way, football seedings hasn’t the same strong opinion as Dale has. They say “probably” and “most likely” but have listed the alternatives of Ireland in Iceland’s Path too.

https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/0254-0d40fc7db8ee-f6fe04623679-1000--play-offs-as-they-stand/

http://m.footballseeding.com/international-tournaments/euro-2020/

[NeverFeltBetter]

The qualification process can surely be streamlined to some extent, what they did this time seems complicated to the point of ridicule. Keeping the Nations League relevant, how about the four winners of the top tier Nations League groups qualify, and if they then also finish in the top two of the traditional method too, the place just moves down? If they did that Kosovo, Serbia, the North and, well, ourselves, would be in, we'd have 24 teams and we wouldn't have any need for four tiers of play-offs. Or just the four best sides who didn't get into the top two (Serbia, Slovakia, ourselves and Iceland, I think, cutting out the results against 6th placed sides in other groups?). I suppose UEFA just one more matches and more lower-tier sides getting to the finals.

[Stuttgart88]

The qualification process can surely be streamlined to some extent, what they did this time seems complicated to the point of ridicule.
It’s not that complex – even if it did cause all kinds of consternation trying to figure it out.

The 4 best not qualified NL D teams play off – easy to understand
The 4 best not qualified NL C teams play off – easy to understand
The 4 best not qualified NL B teams play off – easy to understand
The 4 best not qualified NL A teams play off – easy to understand

In any play off path if fewer than 4 teams have failed to qualify the vacant space(s) in that play off path goes to [this bit arguably needed to be clearer]

The confusion largely comes from
(a) What happens if a play-off path can’t be populated by enough teams (as is the case with A)? Who gets bumped up? We think we know but…
(b) The multiple host cities and the “host country clause” – but this is only an issue for the 2020 Euros so it’ll go away
(c) In the run up to the recent final Group games the permutations were still wide and varied. So it was the outcomes that were uncertain until the very end, not so much the process

Anyone prepared to bother understanding it could (substantially) understand it in my opinion. The problem is too many people only started paying attention late, and could barely even understand or remember the NL, but not because it was complicated.

[DeLorean]

Live stream for the draw - https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/draws/2020/2001111/

[seanfhear]

https://plus.maths.org/content/goumldel-and-limits-logic

Godel basically says there is stuff we can never understand ; I think .