Final Group 4 Table

[elroy]

Just for comparison and to get an overall view of peoples expectations of the next few months-how do ye feel the group will end up?
IMO I think
1 Ireland (20 pts)
2 Swiss (20pts)
3 France (18pts)
4 Israel (16pts)
5 Cyprus (4pts)
6 Faroes (1pt)

[eirebhoy]

I think we will draw with the Swiss in the last game but win the group on goal difference,the games against Cyprus and the Faroes will be more than just 6 points we need to rack up the goals too.
TBH, I'd take two 1-0's now.

[Eldad]

I think Israel will draw away vs Faroe Islands.

[tiktok]

I think we will draw with the Swiss in the last game but win the group on goal difference,the games against Cyprus and the Faroes will be more than just 6 points we need to rack up the goals too.

Doesn't it go on results between the two teams first?
And won't the scores against the Faroes and Cyprus be discounted if they finish (and I assume they will) outside the top four?

[eirebhoy]

Doesn't it go on results between the two teams first?
And won't the scores against the Faroes and Cyprus be discounted if they finish (and I assume they will) outside the top four?
If we draw with the Swiss and finish level on points with them it goes down to goal difference against all teams.

[Stuttgart88]

From another thread this morning:


This (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/releases/en/fwc_regulations_2006_090604_en.pdf) turgid document sets it out, near the top of page 6:-

Its for any tied position be it 1st place or last place.

"...the ranking system in each group is determined as follows:-

(a) greater number of points obtained in all the group matches
If two or more teams are equal on points, then
(b) greater number of points obtained in group matches between the teams concerned
(c) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned
(d) greater no. of goals scored in matches between teams concerned
(e) goal difference in all group matches
(f) greater no. of goals scored in all group matches
(g) playoff on a neutral ground"

In other words if the situation arises where say the Swiss top the group, and we share 2nd place with say the French (and just the French) it will be as follows:-

- whoever wins at LR will take 2nd (as on criterion b, the winner will have 4 pts and the loser 1pt)
- if the match at LR is a draw then goal diff and goals scored will be the same for matches between them and us (so criteria c and d will be equal for us and them)
- so then it will go down to total goal difference for all matches (criterion e)
- and if that is equal (which is unlikely) then it will go to total goals scored in all matches (criterion f).


Incidently as an aside the top 2 2nd placers get automatic qualification and the other 6 go into playoffs to get the final 3 UEFA teams.

It says here (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/releases/uefa_preliminary_format_en.pdf) that to determine the 2 best 2nd placed teams, results against 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th teams are taken into account. So for us that will be all are results (whereas groups 1-3 will ignore the results of the bottom (7th) team).

At the moment I'd say the two best 2nd placers look like they be from group 6 (England/Poland/Austria) or group 8 (Sweden/Croatia/Bulgaria)

So "away goals" isn't a factor if 2 teams are tied on points and have drawn twice.

[concanta]

to be honest the key is the israel game - if we beat israel I do NOT think the swiss will beat israel at home

[eirebhoy]

At this point it's definitely advantage Switzerland, but I'm still very hopeful. I believe we are better than them, but we still have to prove it.
Just because they have a 2 goal better goal difference? I'd give them a 10 goal lead when in comes to goal difference if we got to play them at home. :)

[elroy]

to be honest the key is the israel game - if we beat israel I do NOT think the swiss will beat israel at home


Im not so sure-i believe the only good thing to come out of our draw on sat was that Israel had still plenty of spirit and were up for the french game, if we won they may have collapsed against the french.
Likewise if we beat them at home, they will know that theres chances are more or less gone, therefore could put up a poor showing in Switz.
Then again, I suppose you could also argue if we beat them at home, then they know they'll have to win in switz-christ i dunno really.

[Stuttgart88]

christ i dunno really.

Brilliant! :)

[Dawn_Run]

Not worth a new thread but does anyone know whats going on in group 7?? Why arent spain running away with it?

Group 7 (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/t/group/overview.html?grp=eur_7)

[eirebhoy]

Not worth a new thread but does anyone know whats going on in group 7?? Why arent spain running away with it?

Group 7 (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/t/group/overview.html?grp=eur_7)
They've had draws away to Bosnia, Lithuania and Serbia. Bet they still win the group though as like us, they have played their hardest games in the first half of the draw.

[Metrostars]

I think it's pretty simple what we have to do. Beat Israel and one of France and Switzerland (assuming we beat both Faroes and Cyprus away). If we can't do that then we don't deserve to be in Germaby next year.

[dancinpants]

I think it's pretty simple what we have to do. Beat Israel and one of France and Switzerland (assuming we beat both Faroes and Cyprus away). If we can't do that then we don't deserve to be in Germaby next year.

Ah well, who wants to go to GERMABY anyway!!! :p

[Closed Account 2]

Much as I want us to win the group, my gut feeling is we'll finish 2nd behind the Swiss. I think the Israeli's will fade away from home, and the French are on a downward spiral (dont see that changing unless they get rid of Domenech).


They've had draws away to Bosnia, Lithuania and Serbia. Bet they still win the group though as like us, they have played their hardest games in the first half of the draw.

The remaining fixtures for Serbia and Spain are as follows:-

Spain
Lithuania (h)
Bosnia (h)
Serbia (h)
Belgium (a)
San Marino (a)

Serbia
Belgium (h)
Lithuania (h)
Spain (a)
Lithuania (a)
Bosnia (h)

The Serbs have a 2 point lead of the Spanish at the moment (who are also level with the Lithuanians, but I'd imagine the Lithuanians will slip down a bit). I'd say there are two matches that will determine that group, the Spain - Serbia game (7th Sept) and the Belgium-Spain game (8th October). If Spain win both they'll go thru imo, if they dont then I think Serbia will take the group.

Either way we should keep a close eye on it, if we finish second there and things pan out the way I think, we will have a 1 in 5 chance of having to play them in the play off. Other teams I think we could end up playing in the playoff are:-

Slovakia/Russia
Greece/Turkey
Norway/Slovenia/Belarus
Czechs

[Metrostars]

Ah well, who wants to go to GERMABY anyway!!! :p

Hey Einstein, give yourself a f-king pat on the back for spotting that.