Referendum on the 8th amendment.

[jbyrne]

No voters are as likely to not bother going to the polls as its a foregone conclusion as yes voters.

tripe

[OwlsFan]

Comparing the difficult choice that some women have to make in sometimes terrible or extenuating circumstances- to a holocaust is deeply offensive. You would want to take a good long hard look at yourself.

I am voting for life. I have no problem looking at myself.

[sbgawa]

tripe

Why is it more likely that Yes voters won't bother voting as opposed to it being equally split.

[backstothewall]

Why is it more likely that Yes voters won't bother voting as opposed to it being equally split.

Because yes voters tend to be drawn from a younger demographic and are more likely to be female. No voters are more likely to be the opposite.

No voters will have an easier time getting to the polling station because they are more likely due to their age to be retired. With work taking up a smaller chunk of the day (on average) even if something crops up it is less likely to prevent them from getting to the polls. Yes voters have less of the day to vote in. Is something happens it is happening within a smaller window of available time to vote in. Something is also more likely to crop up for these people. Typically they have more family responsibilities and are more likely to be drawn away by other issues such as sick children, having to work late, being stuck in a traffic jam on the M50, kids football practice etc.

No matter what happens in this referendum, if you could do a count at lunchtime tomorrow it would almost certainly show No ahead at that stage of the day.

[mark12345]

I am voting for life. I have no problem looking at myself.

Fair play to you Owls Fan

[NeverFeltBetter]

Voted this morning in Ashtown. Place was heaving. After two months of pretending it wasn't happening everyone in my office is spontaneously talking about voting Yes.

[Kingdom]

I don't think the yes vote is going to romp home at all. The large swathe of people who don't use social media are no voters. Outside of Dublin I suspect there'll be an overwhelming majority of No votes.

the day of the poll being reliable is over. The MD of IPSOS was on the radio the other day and made reference to not really considering the undecided voters, as in previous forms of polling. I feel that most undecided voters are going to vote No. I think if you're anyway a yes voter, then you'll have decided clearly enough a long time ago. On that train of thought, if the undecided is approx. 25%, then that's a serious wedge of voter who probably will vote no.

In Crumlin this morning they were blown away with the polling at our station. They had huge number turn out before 9am.

[osarusan]

I don't think the yes vote is going to romp home at all.
Neither do I.

Thinking back to the SSM referendum, there were 38% who voted no.

I can see many of those No voters being No voters this time too (almost all I'd imagine), but it would be naive to assume that all 62% of Yes voters then will be Yes voters now - for some people, this is simply a step too far.

On the other hand, the youth vote does seem to have been mobilised fairly well this time, as it was last time.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Turnout is looking quite large, with parts of Dublin hitting near 50% already. I can only assume this is good for Yes?

Edit: As an example, on the back of the turnout betting companies are slashing odds on Yes.

[pineapple stu]

Exit poll on boards.ie is showing 80% Yes from 1000 votes.

Obviously that's not good enough for statistical purposes as it's a relatively narrow cross-section (and could include foreign people, bots, etc), but it's interesting still.

Would have thought boards is mostly male as well, which you would expect to vote a lower Yes or even a No.

[BonnieShels]

I am voting for life. I have no problem looking at myself.

But only if "life" remains intact in Ireland and be damned if these women have to get a flight or ferry to Britain?

---

Everyone is entitled to their vote and choices in that regard but I just can't even quantify what it would be like to be a no voter knowing what is actually happening anyway.

Shipping the problem abroad is not an answer along with the other issues pertaining to bodily autonomy and general health. But alas...

This is as easy a yes as I'll ever give to anything. Marriage equality was a cinch, this is easier.

[NeverFeltBetter]

IT Exit Poll (4'000 surveyed outside polling places) predicts massive Yes, bigger than SSM. Yes winning all demographics bar over 65's, all geographical areas. Even rural areas it's a landslide.

[Fizzer]

Wow! I think we can say there is a genuine revolution happening in this country,our society is actually properly growing up.I never thought I would see such changes but flippin hell, if we carry on like this,then this generation will hand over the country to the next in a far far healthier state than we found it.

[NeverFeltBetter]

RTE's B&A poll is marginally higher than IT's. I'm going to retract my previous statement, with a popular majority this high every on-the-fence TD will be jumping at the proposed legislation. The rest might be wondering about their base for future GE.

[sbgawa]

This was Always a foregone conclusion just happy it's over.

[The Donie Forde]

Landslide Yes vote, by all exit poll indicators - not too far shy of 70-30.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Only Donegal on course to vote No I believe.

[nigel-harps1954]

Only Donegal on course to vote No I believe.

Donegal constituency has returned a 51%-49% in favour of No. Some parts of rural Donegal were as high as 60%-70% no. Urban Donegal voted Yes.

Ridiculously, a fair chunk of South Donegal is part of the Sligo/Leitrim constituency. That part of South Donegal returned 63.6% Yes. That would have swung a Donegal vote much closer to the yes. Only around 1,000 votes of a difference.

[The Fly]

Referendum result is 66.4% to 33.6% in favour or repeal. I don't like to compare the two, but...that's higher than the 62.07% to 37.93% split in the referendum on same-sex marriage.

I thought it would be something like 58% to 42% in favour of repeal, but there you go.

[osarusan]

I think that younger people, and people usually not engaged with politics, got involved with the SSM referendum, and perhaps a lot of them are a bit more engaged in general (don't know if election voting stats will bear that out though).

The rural-urban divide was nowhere near as pronounced as we might have expected.

[The Fly]

I thought the turnout would be a bit higher than 64.1% though.

Turnout for the SSM referendum was 60.52%, which is lower than I thought it was. (All these 60+ percentages can mess with your memory)

[osarusan]

FG committing to legislating this fairly soon. I don't think the other parties will stand in their way either, after the size of the majority.

Interesting to see if it will be an issue come election time, and if so, how the different parties play it.

[OwlsFan]

FG committing to legislating this fairly soon. I don't think the other parties will stand in their way either, after the size of the majority.

Interesting to see if it will be an issue come election time, and if so, how the different parties play it.

I suspect the legislation will go through without to much difficulty. Even though 1 in 3 people was against repeal, I very much doubt that the only party in favour of retention, ReNua, will gain many of those votes. That was their best chance ever to put their name in front of the people but I never heard a peep out of them or if they did sound off, I must have had a bad dose of wax in my ear at the time. The economy by and large determines votes (but not as much as Enda thought) and the HSE crisis has damaged the Government so if there was an election in the morning I wouldn't expect much of a change. Once the abortion legislation goes through it was be old hat until the request for the period to be extended to 21 weeks is promoted and pushed and it will all kick off again but not to the same extent.

[sbgawa]

If Declan Ganly and a few cronies (or a better version of him) together with a few indos (Mattie etc) were to form a new party specifically to "represent" the people who feel disenfranchised by all the other parties there could be a market for them.
There has to be room for a party when a third of the voters have literally no one who represents their view.
Fianna Fail would be the big loser if that party was formed I reckon

[NeverFeltBetter]

For the last five or so years I hear this constant "Room for a centre-right/full-on right wing conservative party" stuff, but the only people who ever bothered their hole to form one got rejected by voters wholesale. Besides, there isn't a constituency in the country that doesn't have some Independent or micro-party candidate (Christian Solidarity anyone?) of that persuasion, but they always go nowhere. That 1 in 3 will hold their nose and vote for their FF or FG or Independent TD candidate, just like they did after SSM.

[Mr A]

Good to have the campaign over. It wasn't a quiet revolution- Leo just took a while to listen.

The Yes campaign were good, focussed on the stories of affected women which was hugely effective. Where to even start with the No campaign- they were absolutely dreadful both tactically and morally. Got desperate from a few weeks out and just crumbled completely into nastiness, looking like the loons most of us always suspected them to be.

Martin may have saved FFs bacon as they would have looked a very 'No' party without him. Renua were active in some parts of the country but no one cares.

Must get my Seanad vote sorted at new address so I can help get rid of that reptile Mullen.

[sbgawa]

Its a celebrity world , the likes of Christian Solidarity have no hope ,
But if someone credible came out swinging it would be interesting,
Its now or never.
The Abortion thing is dead forever even if a new party put it on the agenda the % in favour of repeal means FG or whomever else couldn't backtrack

[BonnieShels]

I suspect the legislation will go through without to much difficulty. Even though 1 in 3 people was against repeal, I very much doubt that the only party in favour of retention, ReNua, will gain many of those votes. That was their best chance ever to put their name in front of the people but I never heard a peep out of them or if they did sound off, I must have had a bad dose of wax in my ear at the time. The economy by and large determines votes (but not as much as Enda thought) and the HSE crisis has damaged the Government so if there was an election in the morning I wouldn't expect much of a change. Once the abortion legislation goes through it was be old hat until the request for the period to be extended to 21 weeks is promoted and pushed and it will all kick off again but not to the same extent.

Why would there be a demand for 21 weeks?

It's set at 12 in the prpposed legislation and there has been no indication from anywhere that women are unhappy with having that choice? In fact I would sincerely doubt this is ever going to be an issue again in my lifetime.

[Charlie Darwin]

There has to be room for a party when a third of the voters have literally no one who represents their view.
Well they have nobody who represents that particular one of their views. I presume if Declan Ganley had to choose between pro-choice Fine Gael and a pro-life party who propose massive tax hikes and wealth distribution he'd support FG, etc. If people are that vexed about abortion they will find representation.

[Real ale Madrid]

If Declan Ganly and a few cronies (or a better version of him) together with a few indos (Mattie etc) were to form a new party specifically to "represent" the people who feel disenfranchised by all the other parties there could be a market for them.
There has to be room for a party when a third of the voters have literally no one who represents their view.
Fianna Fail would be the big loser if that party was formed I reckon

Call it Libertas.

[jinxy lilywhite]

I suspect the legislation will go through without to much difficulty. Even though 1 in 3 people was against repeal, I very much doubt that the only party in favour of retention, ReNua, will gain many of those votes. That was their best chance ever to put their name in front of the people but I never heard a peep out of them or if they did sound off, I must have had a bad dose of wax in my ear at the time. The economy by and large determines votes (but not as much as Enda thought) and the HSE crisis has damaged the Government so if there was an election in the morning I wouldn't expect much of a change. Once the abortion legislation goes through it was be old hat until the request for the period to be extended to 21 weeks is promoted and pushed and it will all kick off again but not to the same extent.

Where is your proof for this?

[jbyrne]

Where is your proof for this?

PBP have already stated they will only support the 12 week period legislation for 5 years then push for longer.
others will readily jump aboard that cause quite easily especially given the large mandate received last week.

[sbgawa]

I don't think "proof" is possible here but I'd tend to agree that Ireland will follow the same trajectory as USA UK that once it is introduced in a "limited" fashion it is constantly chipped away at to increase the reasons by using every hard case from then on.
Leaving completely aside whether you are a yes or a no I think that's just accepting reality

[jinxy lilywhite]

PBP have already stated they will only support the 12 week period legislation for 5 years then push for longer.
others will readily jump aboard that cause quite easily especially given the large mandate received last week.

and that's 5 TDs out of 80 required. yeah the rest will all jump on board because there is a national blood lust now baby killing women of Ireland

[jbyrne]

yeah the rest will all jump on board because there is a national blood lust now baby killing women of Ireland

wow, where did that come from?!

[osarusan]

I don't think "proof" is possible here but I'd tend to agree that Ireland will follow the same trajectory as USA UK that once it is introduced in a "limited" fashion it is constantly chipped away at to increase the reasons by using every hard case from then on.
Leaving completely aside whether you are a yes or a no I think that's just accepting reality

I think the same - that the limit will be left alone for a number of years, then get moved. But I think that will happen very slowly, and will also be affected (and limited) by any medical improvements that result in earlier fetal viability.

I would imagine that FG will want to legislate for it along the lines of what they outlined pre-referendum, as they have a now mandate to do so, then not go near it again for a long time, and I'd guess the other big parties would feel much the same.

In the future, the debate might see the current Save the 8th advocates arguing that the result of the referendum meant 12 weeks and no more.

I don't think, though, that it would be the 'hard cases' that would shape the future changes. If they are properly legislated for now, it wouldn't need to be such an issue in the future.

[Mr A]

and that's 5 TDs out of 80 required. yeah the rest will all jump on board because there is a national blood lust now baby killing women of Ireland

Nobody has an abortion lightly. No one.

[The Fly]

Nobody has an abortion lightly. No one.

It's revealing how you never hear of anyone making the difficult or gut-wrenching decision to have the baby.

[osarusan]

It's revealing how you never hear of anyone making the difficult or gut-wrenching decision to have the baby.

I don't really understand your point - the No campaign had plenty of stories from women who thought about seeking an abortion, but after a lot of thought or soul-searching, in the end decided to have their child instead.

Be that a 'crisis' pregnancy because of their age and lack of money and maturity, or because there was an indication that the foetus would not survive, or would have a disability, and so on.

It was a fairly common theme I thought, - in response to the Repeal side's stories of women who did have an abortion in such circumstances, the No side (one of its various strands anyway) had stories of woman who went through similar experiences but decided to have their baby anyway.

I thought it was one of their smarter bits of campaigning - take the opposition's argument and provide your own personal stories to show that it doesn't have to end in abortion.

[passinginterest]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's actually a reduction in the number of abortions procured by Irish women when the legislation takes effect. The stress of knowing the option wasn't available locally must have been a huge additional burden, and once flights were booked etc. changing of mind would have been unlikely. At least now there's going to be consultation locally, advice, support etc. and with the proposals to increase access to birth control and improve sex education in schools it should be a much healthier environment for women in general.

[Mr A]

It's revealing how you never hear of anyone making the difficult or gut-wrenching decision to have the baby.

I am aware of several such stories. I'd say most people are.

[sbgawa]

Whatever legislation is passed will continue to be changed/chipped away at in the Courts establishing new "Case Law" and widening the times and criteria.

The argument is dead at this point and there is zero chance of any protections for the unborn being voted back in by Referendum.

Trying to mount a rear guard action to delay the changes that will come in terms of times Criteria etc to whatever legislation is introduced is what the people on the No side will probably do now but I honestly think they should just give up and accept the inevitable , . the world has changed.

[Real ale Madrid]

Whatever legislation is passed will continue to be changed/chipped away at in the Courts establishing new "Case Law" and widening the times and criteria.

The argument is dead at this point and there is zero chance of any protections for the unborn being voted back in by Referendum.

Trying to mount a rear guard action to delay the changes that will come in terms of times Criteria etc to whatever legislation is introduced is what the people on the No side will probably do now but I honestly think they should just give up and accept the inevitable , . the world has changed.

No basis for that, nothing has changed anyway.

There was abortion last year and there will be this year - all we have done is face up to it.

[sbgawa]

There was abortion last year where there was a real and substantive danger to the life of the Mother etc etc.
There is now a different criteria i'e any reason up to 12 wks then etc etc, my point is this criteria will change and I don't see the point in people fighting a losing battle like in other countries , just accept it and move on.

[marinobohs]

I think the point was that abortion was available last year - in the U.K. all the proposed change does is provides the same function without the boat/plane trip.
with access to termination still a long way off in Northern Ireland, could we see Donegal 9the only county to vote no) become a centre for women travelling from the North ?

[marinobohs]

I don't think "proof" is possible here but I'd tend to agree that Ireland will follow the same trajectory as USA UK that once it is introduced in a "limited" fashion it is constantly chipped away at to increase the reasons by using every hard case from then on.
Leaving completely aside whether you are a yes or a no I think that's just accepting reality

No doubt you are right, Government will try and stick to the published heads of Bill because any deviation will see a free for all with pro lifers trying to water it down and pro choice trying to make it more liberal. best option is stick to what was advertised 9and received a huge mandate) and let both sides rekindle battle down the line (preferably on someone else's watch).pro choice will have been lifted by high 'Yes@ vote and will try and push further but down the road a bit.

[sbgawa]

I get the UK thing but that was kind of my point, its unrestricted on demand in the UK and that the way its inevitably heading here.
This subject will continue to be a thorny subject every time the needle moves going forward.
Its time to just give up and accept it , fighting every inch of the way will achieve nothing other than an on-going argument where neither side wants to listen to the other.

[marinobohs]

I get the UK thing but that was kind of my point, its unrestricted on demand in the UK and that the way its inevitably heading here.
This subject will continue to be a thorny subject every time the needle moves going forward.
Its time to just give up and accept it , fighting every inch of the way will achieve nothing other than an on-going argument where neither side wants to listen to the other.

Agree with you but unfortunately that seems to be the way we do things here. I think there is still too strong a pro life element here to simply roll over, ironic it was the insertion of article 8 that provided the impetus for the push to where e are now. sometimes silence speaks the loudest (but lessons are never learnt)

[jbyrne]

I don't see the point in people fighting a losing battle like in other countries , just accept it and move on.

ah yes, take your beating, forget about the principles you held so dearly for so long and be on your way like a good person! :rolleyes:

[sbgawa]

I didn't explain myself very well ...I didn't mean that the NO voters should toddle off and forget their principles in a HA HA sore loser kind of way.
What I was trying to say is that the battle is over.
We have voted in Abortion on demand up to 12 weeks and effectively up to 24 weeks if the person says they are mentally not able to go through with the pregnancy (and I am not saying that there are not real genuine cases where that is actual reality).
Given that is now the state of affairs I don't think the Pro lifers achieve anything meaningful by fighting against any gradual erosions of the "theoretical" 12 week limit. All they achieve is making themselves look like hardline uncaring people and increasing the resentment and anti church sentiment of the Media and sections of Society when they will achieve nothing.
If the Church (and there are good people there) want to remain relevant they need to stop letting hardliners fight losing/pointless battles and start doing good in society and promoting positives that they are involved in.
A lot of No voters weren't hardline people and a lot of Yes voters were swayed by the hard cases but troubled by unlimited Abortion.
The trouble in the "debate" was that you tended to only here from the nutters on either side.
"every sperm is sacred" versus "Abortion up to Birth"

I'm just glad its over and didn't mean to appear to be telling people to sod off