Republic of Ireland V Serbia - Tuesday 5th September 2017 - World Cup 2018 Qualifier

[jbyrne]

It's cruel because I think we would've gone on to get a second if the penalty was given (and we scored it).

he gave decisions against our forwards in and around their penalty area for far less offences. I know that the threshold for fouling to give away a penalty is far higher than that for a free but that's simply wrong.

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

he gave decisions against our forwards in and around their penalty area for far less offences. I know that the threshold for fouling to give away a penalty is far higher than that for a free but that's simply wrong.

He gave the Serbs a lot of leeway. Ivanovic was lucky not to get booked for a couple of flashpoints with McClean and Brady, especially the latter.

[EAFC_rdfl]

Can someone else point out the mistake in this please?





Harry Arter poor with and without possession for a third competitive game, which proves the folly of pining our hopes on players who aren't good enough to play for England



It's pinning not pining. Am I right Nigel...?!

[CraftyToePoke]

I'd sooner say Chris Forrester is closer to a budding Hoolahan.



I wouldn't have a problem with Forrester in the team. He's quite impressive as a creative midfielder. Kelly and Forrester to start against Moldova would be fine with me

Needs to play for Peterborough first surely lads, hasn't had a sniff of a start this season so far and maybe one brief outing from the bench. They brought Doughty in from QPR in the middle and have made dream start & he has gone from club captain, first pick & MVP to having work to do under this new manager.

[DannyInvincible]

For all the bitching about RTÉ panel several have got it wrong on the playoff scenario. It's not as crazy as you think.

We currently sit with ten points for purposes of play off. This assumes Moldova finish bottom.

Moldova - currently bottom on 2 points and with a goal difference of -16 - will finish bottom even if they beat Austria, as three points against Austria wouldn't be enough to take them ahead of Georgia, who have 5 points and a goal difference of -4, unless Moldova beat Austria by lots of goals - possibly even by double digits - and/or Georgia suffer very heavy losses in their final two games. A result against us on top of a result against Austria might help Moldova overtake Georgia, of course, but if they get a draw or a win against us, it could prove a fatal blow to any slim hopes we have of finishing second (unless Wales draw with or lose to Georgia), so it won't matter, and even if we did finish second after Moldova beat us (and they finished fifth ahead of Georgia), the four points we picked up against Georgia would be discarded in the runners-up ranking table, which would leave us on 12 points for that (rather than 13 points if Moldova were to finish bottom and we beat Wales), although I think we would be left on 13 points in the runners-up table and would enjoy a slightly superior goal difference to what we'd otherwise have if Moldova were to draw with us and finish fifth and we then went on to beat Wales and finish second. Am I right in thinking that?

Bizarrely, it seems then that there could be a possible permutation where drawing with Moldova rather than beating them could ultimately be more beneficial for us in terms of the ranking of runners-up, but I'd say the chances of everything coming together in that potential scenario and working out in our favour are extremely unlikely - virtually nil - as it'd also rely upon Moldova stuffing Austria (to bring Moldova on to 6 points and enhancing their goal difference by enough to surpass Georgia's goal difference), Wales drawing with Georgia (in order to keep Wales within touching distance of us with us still to play them for the win) and Georgia losing very heavily to Serbia (to keep Georgia on 6 points and have them end up with a lower goal difference than Moldova). Wales beating Georgia would push Wales out of our reach, whilst Georgia beating Wales would render it impossible for Moldova to finish ahead of them. All things considered, I wouldn't exactly be advising O'Neill to set the team up to play for a draw against Moldova as even contemplating the possibility of Moldova stuffing Austria would be very, very fanciful; delusionally optimistic perhaps. Relying on it to happen would be sheer lunacy.


Best options seem to be Bosnia, Slovakia or Greece group.

If we win our next two games and Bosnia do not win both their games, then we will definitely not be worst second place. One of their games is home to Belgium.

B&H are in Greece's group - group H - and you're relying on Greece slipping up and failing to overtake B&H then. I suppose it's theoretically possible that B&H could lose to Belgium and draw or lose against Estonia with Greece beating Gibraltar and drawing or even losing against Cyprus, which would mean Greece would finish second in that group and be ranked in the runners-up table with either 10 or 11 points. Not sure how likely that is though...

Greece - who, as I say, have Cyprus to play away and Gibraltar at home in their final game - will likely overtake B&H if B&H lose to Belgium and unexpectedly slip up in Estonia too. Greece would be on 13 points in the runners-up rankings if they finish second after beating Cyprus and Gibraltar and - unless (I think) we beat Wales by at least three goals more than the number of goals by which Greece beat Cyprus - they will almost certainly have a higher goal difference than us as they'd currently be on +3 whilst we'd be on +1 in the runners-up ranking.

Here is group H as it stands:

http://i68.tinypic.com/flit52.png

It's somewhat unfair that group H play their final round of games a day after us, so B&H/Greece will have a much better idea than we will of what they need to do going into their final games in terms of how many goals they might need to score or whatever. Foreknowledge such as that can obviously make a huge difference in terms of how a team goes out to play from the first whistle; be it deciding to keep it tight or going for an all-guns-blazing approach.

As for Slovakia's group - group F - I don't really see it happening. Here's group F at the minute:

http://i68.tinypic.com/1zlcfau.png

I think Slovakia will manage at least a point in Scotland (Slovakia beat Scotland 3-0 last October) and a win at home to Malta then should secure second place for them; they'd then have at least 13 points (or 15 if they beat Scotland again) in the runners-up table then and, if necessary, their goal difference (which would remain at +6 if they draw with Scotland) should be enough to take them into the play-offs.

If Scotland or Slovenia could somehow manage to get into second place in group F through either of them winning only one of their respective remaining two games, I think that would work for us too as they'd likely end up on no more than 12 points in the runners-up table. Whether that's realistic or not is the question, but it could theoretically work, for example, if Scotland beat Slovakia in Glasgow by quite a few goals (or by enough goals to ensure the Scots overtake Slovakia's superior goal difference whilst also remembering that Slovakia will probably beat Malta by a few) and then draw with Slovenia in the final game with Slovenia already having lost away to England in their previous or penultimate game.

Actually, I'm also just realising now it's possible that if Scotland beat Slovakia by two goals or less, Slovenia lose to England, Slovakia then beat Malta whilst Scotland and Slovenia draw with one another, Slovakia will finish second in group F with 18 points. That would translate to 12 points in the runners-up table, which would work for us as we'd be on 13 if we beat Wales. I'd say that might actually be our best chance of making the play-offs if we finish second. So, we're kinda relying on Scotland and England to do us favours there. I'll happily support England for 90 minutes if it means us getting closer to Russia! Could Scotland have it in them to beat Slovakia though?

Looking elsewhere, there may be potential for us in group E:

http://i63.tinypic.com/9fv0a8.png

If Montenegro draw with Denmark at home and lose to Poland away, they'd finish group E on 17 points. If Denmark, having drawn with Montenegro, go on to draw with or lose to Romania in their final game, they'd finish on either 17 or 18 points. These tallies would translate into either 11 or 12 points in the runners-up table. It's worth nothing though that Denmark's game against Romania is in Copenhagen, so you'd fancy Denmark to win it as Romania probably aren't the team they were a few years ago. Although you never know; Denmark's trip to Romania earlier in the group ended in a 0-0 draw, so there's definitely a bit of hope for us in this group too.

All in all, there are a few potential avenues open for us in theory then. The chances of things coming together for us are still clearly very slim, but perhaps the situation isn't as utterly hopeless and gloomy as originally suspected. Assuming we beat Moldova, we really just need to then try to beat Wales by as many goals as we possibly can in order to give us the greatest chance of qualifying for the play-offs, especially in case other teams (pretty much all of whom will have a superior goal difference to us right now) happen to finish with 13 points too in the runners-up table. I think there are results that could go our way in theory in other groups too, but, having scanned through them quickly, the chances of those coming together for us seem so unlikely that I'm not sure they're worth a huge deal of consideration.

(I'm pretty sure my above formulations are accurate, but they remain open to correction as it's always possible I've overlooked a result or missed a possible outcome here or there. If anyone spots an error, be sure to point it out. Cheers!)

[bennocelt]

Sterling work Danny, excellent

[paul_oshea]

I said after the Serbia game in Beograd, they were there for the taking, and that they would get better. I also said it would come back to bite us. That game was the only game we seemed able to score at will, we've been impotent since then really and Oneill doesn't have the prescribed Sidenafil to do anything about it. Had we beaten them when they were all out of sorts, we'd now be a point behind them and sitting comfortably for at least 2nd. We were still able play ball then and they were awful bad defensively in that game. We've not looked anywhere near that level since, but we have looked like we can just sit and let teams attack us again and again and again. If we'd done the business at the start we wouldn't have to worry about how the ship has stalled before reaching port.

Its all over now, regardless of beating wales, which we wont do anyway. We are completely rudderless and no cohesion or idea what to do when we have the ball or when we don't have the ball. I'm beginning to think this negativity and continuous down playing of our ability and capability is O'Neills tactics to get us believing we are always the underdog and never quite good enough, reverse psychology that is used to then rally us, as its only motivational tool. And he has always played that card. YOu don't come out saying premiership players etc and we don't have the players and then make out a Georgian team with players in the European leagues are all that good - they are good but not that good and it doesn't hold water with his argument. He has created this mindset amongst the players that has bread a bit of fear and they don't know what to do in most situations. It worked once or twice for a big game but has stifled us in the long run and makes us panic and fear when its not going exactly how we need it to go to perform this way.

[zero]

B&H are in Greece's group - group H - and you're relying on Greece slipping up and failing to overtake B&H then. I suppose it's theoretically possible that B&H could lose to Belgium and draw or lose against Estonia with Greece beating Gibraltar and drawing or even losing against Cyprus, which would mean Greece would finish second in that group and be ranked in the runners-up table with either 10 or 11 points. Not sure how likely that is though...

Greece - who, as I say, have Cyprus to play away and Gibraltar at home in their final game - will likely overtake B&H if B&H lose to Belgium and unexpectedly slip up in Estonia too. Greece would be on 13 points in the runners-up rankings if they finish second after beating Cyprus and Gibraltar and - unless (I think) we beat Wales by at least three goals more than the number of goals by which Greece beat Cyprus - they will almost certainly have a higher goal difference than us as they'd currently be on +3 whilst we'd be on +1 in the runners-up ranking.

Here is group H as it stands:

http://i68.tinypic.com/flit52.png

It's somewhat unfair that group H play their final round of games a day after us, so B&H/Greece will have a much better idea than we will of what they need to do going into their final games in terms of how many goals they might need to score or whatever. Foreknowledge such as that can obviously make a huge difference in terms of how a team goes out to play from the first whistle; be it deciding to keep it tight or going for an all-guns-blazing approach.


i think the most likely scenario that would help us here would be for bosnia to lose or draw at home to belgium - which you would expect and greece to draw in cyprus (a taller order, but cyprus aren't bad and technically could still finish 2nd themselves...) and then both win their final games. if greece don't beat cyprus, the would only have max 11 contributing points to 2nd spot (currently they have 10; their last game v gibraltar won't count towards the 2nd place standings).

bosnia currently on 8, so a draw/loss to belgium and a win in estonia (or vice versa) gives them max 12 points.

those games happen on 7 oct, so after we play moldova. prior to the kick off in wales we should know what we need to know to qualify i think.

[DannyInvincible]

Sterling work Danny, excellent

If it kind of has a "work in progress" feel to it, that's kinda because it is; I was working it out and realising new possibilities as I was going along. Still am actually! Ha.

Just going back to group H, I'm realising that the following is quite possible (and I see zero has mentioned it (http://foot.ie/threads/225065-Republic-of-Ireland-V-Serbia-Tuesday-5th-September-2017-World-Cup-2018-Qualifier?p=1935239&viewfull=1#post1935239) as I've been composing this post): Belgium beat B&H and B&H beat Estonia whilst Greece draw with Cyprus (that game is in Cyprus, importantly) and then Greece beat Gibraltar. That'd leave both B&H and Greece on 17 points in that group and whoever had the superior goal difference between them would finish second. In the runners-up table, that'd convert to a tally of 11 points, which'd be grand for us if we're to manage 13 points.

Just trying to work out if there's any chance that 11 points for us could ever be enough to keep us out of the worst runner-up spot in the runners-up table; seems it might be possible actually... Further to the scenario outlined immediately above, if we won against Moldova, whilst Wales lost to or drew with Georgia, and we then drew in Wales, that'd secure second position for us in group D with 17 points (as Wales would finish on either 15 or 16 points). That would, of course, translate into 11 points in the runners-up table. Our runners-up table goal difference total would not improve with those results, however, and would remain at +1, due to the fact we'd have drawn with Wales and our goals against Moldova would be discarded, so that could prove detrimental if we were ranked against another runner-up on 11 points.

It wouldn't necessarily be fatal though; B&H's current goal difference in the runners-up table is +2. In their group, it's actually +11 (compared to Greece's +6), but +9 of B&H's goals were scored against sixth-placed Gibraltar, so are discarded. If B&H were to lose by a few goals to Belgium and then beat Estonia by the slimmest of margins (and finish second in group H, meaning Greece would have to get no more than 4 points in their final two games and also fail to score enough goals to better B&H's group-table goal difference total), it might actually take B&H's goal difference total below +1 in the runners-up table. As one of Greece's games is at home to Gibraltar though, Greece could score highly in this, so there'd be an obvious worry these potential goals could take them ahead of B&H into second in group H if the two sides were to finish equal on points under the aforementioned circumstances.

I think, for B&H, a 3-0 loss to Belgium and a 1-0 win against Estonia would do the trick for us in bringing B&H's runners-up table goal difference to 0. It'd be unlikely to be of use to us at +1 as they've already scored more goals than us (which is the next differentiator in the runners-up table), unless our draw against Wales in this scenario is a very high-scoring one. If Greece drew against Cyprus and also failed to score over 3 goals against Gibraltar in Athens, I'm pretty sure Greece would finish behind B&H on goal difference (with both teams on 17 points) in their group. Or if Greece lost to Cyprus, that'd make it impossible for them to overtake B&H.

If Greece, on the other hand, were to finish second in group H on 17 points (giving them 11 in the runners-up table), it's highly likely the eventual Greek goal difference total (which would already be +3 if they were ranked in the table of second-placed teams), would also be superior to ours (+1) if both of us were to be ranked on 11 points.

Likewise, if a group E team was to finish with 11 points in the runners-up table and we also had 11 points, I think it's highly likely their goal difference would still be superior, especially if it's Denmark, as, although both Montenegro and Denmark have the same goal difference (+11) in their group right now, Denmark would have more goals than Montenegro in the runners-up table as Denmark scored more of their goals against teams other than Kazakhstan and both teams' goals against Kazakhstan would obviously be discarded; Montenegro would lose +8 goals whilst Denmark would lose only +5 goals due to the discarding of Kazakhstan results.

If Montenegro were, however, to somehow finish second, say, after losing to Poland in Warsaw by 3 goals or more after having drawn with Denmark in Podgorica, which would prevent Denmark from passing them (it would also require Denmark losing to Romania in Copenhagen by as many goals as the margin by which Montenegro lost to Poland), I'm pretty certain 11 points and our goal difference of +1 would be enough for us in the runners-up table in order to take us to the play-offs. That possible outcome would be extremely unlikely though, surely.

Just looking at the remaining groups in a bit more detail...

In group C, if NI lost to both Germany and Norway and, in the process, had a goal differential of -6 over those two games, that would keep them on 13 points in the runners-up table and leave them on a goal difference (+1) that we'd surpass if we beat Wales by a goal (bringing us to +2). Obviously, the fewer goals NI would concede, the greater number we'd need to score against Wales. It's not impossible they could lose their final two games by heavy margins, but, on current form, I'd expect them to pick up at least a point against Norway, even if it's in Oslo.

In group A, Sweden should beat Luxembourg in Stockholm (even in spite of the latter's recent heroics in holding France to a draw in Toulouse) to secure second place on at least 19 group points and a runners-up table spot on at least 13 points with a healthy enough goal difference to take them into the play-offs (it's +3 at the minute in the runners-up table). A stuffing in Amsterdam by an admitedly relatively poor Netherlands in the final game might dent their goal difference a bit, so something to look out for there perhaps...

http://i66.tinypic.com/2w6f6l4.png

We also can't be sure who will finish bottom of that group just yet. If Sweden finish second as expected, ideally Belarus would finish bottom (which I do think is more likely when I look at the the respective remaining fixtures of Belarus and Luxembourg whilst also taking into account current goal difference totals) as more of Sweden's goals will be discarded that way. Sweden have +8 against Belarus but +1 against Luxembourg (although they do still have another game against Luxembourg obviously, but it's unlikely they'll beat them by more than 7 goals).

If Sweden were to somehow slip up against Luxembourg, say, with a draw, and then went on to draw against the Netherlands, that would leave Sweden finishing second with 18 points (or 12 in the runners-up table, which would be inferior to our hopeful 13). Maybe some hope there; the possibility of a draw between the Netherlands and Sweden in Amsterdam is quite likely, but we'd also be praying for further heroics away from home from Luxembourg.

If Sweden were to slip up with a draw against Luxembourg and then went on to lose against the Netherlands, the Netherlands would probably also need a win against Belarus to take them into second as it's likely the Netherlands' goal difference would still be inferior if both finished on 17 points. A win for the Netherlands against Belarus would take them on to 19 points in the group, which would translate to 13 in the runners-up table, but their goal difference (which'd presently be +2 if they were in the runners-up table) would also have improved on account of their victory over Sweden, so might put them beyond our reach.

Just looking at group I, if Iceland secure a victory over Kosovo in their final game, they should secure second spot in the group, although if Turkey manage to beat Iceland before that, it'd keep Iceland on 13 runners-up points (as the Kosovo result will be discarded) and it could do crucial/helpful damage to their goal difference, so something definitely to keep an eye on there too.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2zzn7yt.png

There is a possibility of either Iceland or Turkey finishing second in group I on 18 points, which would leave them with 12 in the runners-up table. If Iceland slipped up against Kosovo - a draw would do - and they also drew against Turkey with Turkey beating Finland, Turkey would finish with 18 points ahead of Iceland, also on 18 points, due to a superior goal difference. Another possibility; Turkey could beat Iceland and draw with Finland. If Iceland then also drew with Kosovo, that'd put Turkey in second with 18 points ahead of Iceland's 17. Obviously, if Iceland beat Turkey, they're out of our reach as that'd give them 16 points in the runners-up table.

It'll be impossible to catch the the group B runner-up, whether it's Portugal (currently on 15 points in the runners-up table) or group-leaders Switzerland (who'd currently be on 18 if they were ranked), so no point looking at that group at all.

http://i67.tinypic.com/4gp75j.png

Same for group G really; Italy already have 13 runners-up points with a goal difference of +3. If they manage even a point against Macedonia at home or Albania away in their final games (and it's pretty much certain they will), it'll mathematically put them beyond our reach in the runners-up table.

Pretty sure that's all eight groups covered between this post and post #154 (http://foot.ie/threads/225065-Republic-of-Ireland-V-Serbia-Tuesday-5th-September-2017-World-Cup-2018-Qualifier?p=1935209&viewfull=1#post1935209).

[Drumcondra 69er]

http://afalsefirstxi.blogspot.ie/2017/09/revenge-serbed-cold.html

Usual analysis on Tuesday's disappointment for those of you interested. Long way back now......

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

After seeing Burnley win again today to take their tally to 7 points from 4 games, it, again, makes me wonder what the point was in playing a clearly half fit 34 year old in two games in 72 hours when he hasn't started a league game all season; not even in his best position to boot.

When a player admits he was selected in a squad for an International tournament, and started the first game, despite being unfit to participate, and the same mistake repeats itself a year later, and you have a manager publicly saying he will let one player decide himself if he wants to play, I am surprised more isn't made of it; especially when you consider the criticism players like Shay Given received in the past.

James McCarthy, too, was selected in the starting line up not long before this despite carrying an injury and was injured in the prematch warm-up.

Now if Walters was as important to us someone like Mkhitaryan would be to Armenia it would be understandable but we're a sum of our parts team.

The decision was made to look all the more ridiculous when you had Daryl Murphy come on and win a free kick right outside the box, get a player sent off, (almost) win a penalty and do something that Walters failed to do over two games and test the goalkeeper.

Long had absolutely no support up front and had to constantly run the channels; despite this, over the two games, he set one up on a plate for McClean, almost scored from outside the box against Serbia and tested the goalkeeper on several other occasions.

Yet, he will continue to carry the can and everyone will look to the next Folan/Best/Cox in Scott Hogan - despite 1 goal in his last 18 league games.

Which leads me to my next complaint..

Another complaint I have is that if players were selected on merit instead of hype then Meyler would've been in the team ahead of Arter against Georgia.

[Olé Olé]

Yes, it was all Walters' fault. Long could do no wrong.

Hogan has proved at Championship level to be better than just another Cox, Best or Folan. He's had a bad run and been unlucky with the style of play under Bruce.

Arter is a proven PL midfielder. Meyler is a rotational Championship midfielder. There is hardly a body of work that Meyler can point to at international level either. Arter has a lot to do for us now as he adjusts to international football but Meyler has hardly painted himself as the new Roy Keane and Tuesday's performance totally stands out from his others for us.

Don't let context get in the way of your own agendas.

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

Yes, it was all Walters' fault. Long could do no wrong.

Hogan has proved at Championship level to be better than just another Cox, Best or Folan. He's had a bad run and been unlucky with the style of play under Bruce.

Arter is a proven PL midfielder. Meyler is a rotational Championship midfielder. There is hardly a body of work that Meyler can point to at international level either. Arter has a lot to do for us now as he adjusts to international football but Meyler has hardly painted himself as the new Roy Keane and Tuesday's performance totally stands out from his others for us.

Don't let context get in the way of your own agendas.

I place most of the blame for playing an unfit 34 year old sorely lacking in match practice 2 times in 72 hrs at O'Neill's feet. And I thought O'Neill's comments about not being afraid to play Walters even if he was unfit were brazenly stupid. That doesn't mean Walters escapes blame because he acknowledged a few months ago he shouldn't have played against Sweden and he did the same thing again here.

Meyler was better than Arter in the 1-0 win in Vienna. Arter has one full season of PL football as a reference point. Meyler has spent the majority of his career in the PL with a couple of seasons at the top end of the Championship.

I mentioned on another thread that Martin, McCormack and Rhodes have all done it for a longer period of time at Championship level and have failed to transfer their form to a higher level.

Hogan still has it all to prove.

Long isn't blameless. He's just one of a number to suffer from decisions like playing injured players and failing to play others in their best positions.

Walters, Murphy, Long, McClean, McGeady and Brady left on at the end against Georgia.

Hourihane the closest thing to a CM left on at the end against Serbia.

What on earth was he thinking?

I'm beginning to think when we were getting all those positive results under O'Neill, he was just winging it like Homer Simpson when he saved the nuclear plant from a meltdown.

[tetsujin1979]

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