NFL Betting Thread 2016

[Real ale Madrid]

Another Tracker thread for me - this time for NFL 2016 season.

I have put aside a bank of €200.

€50 for a pre season total wins bet.

€10 per week 4 team handicap accumulators. Hopefully this thread keeps me honest.

I had some success with a similar +2.5 goals acca. thread for the LoI last year but finding it difficult to get the odds to keep it worthwhile.

Anyway, here is what I gone for, for the season long 4 team wins bet:

Houston Texans - OVER 8.5 wins @ 4/6
Cincinnati Bengals - OVER 9.5 wins @ evens
Carolina Panthers - OVER 10.5 wins @ evens
Washington Professional Football Team - OVER 7.5 wins
€50 @ 10.5/1 with PP

WEEK 1 BET
PACKERS (-5.0) @ Jaguars 10/11
CHIEFS (-6.5) v Chargers 10/11
EAGLES (-3.5) v Browns 10/11
RAVENS (-3.0) v Bills 5/6
€10 @ 11.75 / 1 with Skybet

Comments / other bets welcome - follow at your peril.

[Real ale Madrid]

WEEK 1 BET
PACKERS (-5.0) @ Jaguars 10/11 LOSE
CHIEFS (-6.5) v Chargers 10/11 LOSE
EAGLES (-3.5) v Browns 10/11 WIN
RAVENS (-3.0) v Bills 5/6 WIN
€10 @ 11.75 / 1 with Skybet


So the Pack and KC just fail to cover the spreads on week 1.

WEEK 2.

NY GIANTS (-4.0) v Saints 20/21
RAVENS (-5.5) @ Browns 10/11
STEELERS (-3.0) v Bengals 20/23
TITANS (+6.0) @ Lions 20/21
€10 @ 12.6/1 with b365

Bit of a shot in the dark this week, very difficult due to some surprising results last week. You have to think that the Giants will have too much at home on both sides of the ball for the Saints who looked up to their old defensive tricks again last week.
I'll probably be piggybacking on the Ravens a bit this year - some had them favorites for the superbowl 12 months ago. A bad run of injuries meant they had no chance but i expect them to compete well this year.
I was mightily impressed with the Steelers last week even though they caught a few nice breaks in the first half, they look like AFC favs to me.
And Bill Simmons convinced me to back the Titans in Detroit - spread looks far too big and I agree.

[swinfordfc]

Another Tracker thread for me - this time for NFL 2016 season.

I have put aside a bank of €200.

€50 for a pre season total wins bet.

€10 per week 4 team handicap accumulators. Hopefully this thread keeps me honest.

I had some success with a similar +2.5 goals acca. thread for the LoI last year but finding it difficult to get the odds to keep it worthwhile.

Anyway, here is what I gone for, for the season long 4 team wins bet:

Houston Texans - OVER 8.5 wins @ 4/6
Cincinnati Bengals - OVER 9.5 wins @ evens
Carolina Panthers - OVER 10.5 wins @ evens
Washington Professional Football Team - OVER 7.5 wins
€50 @ 10.5/1 with PP

WEEK 1 BET
PACKERS (-5.0) @ Jaguars 10/11
CHIEFS (-6.5) v Chargers 10/11
EAGLES (-3.5) v Browns 10/11
RAVENS (-3.0) v Bills 5/6
€10 @ 11.75 / 1 with Skybet

Comments / other bets welcome - follow at your peril.

Washington lucky to win 5 games this year!

[Real ale Madrid]

Washington lucky to win 5 games this year!

Well its easy to say that now given they are 0-2!

[swinfordfc]

Well its easy to say that now given they are 0-2!

Cousins is brutal! He just cant trust himself with the throws and thus he's done at the end of this year - especially he got good WR's to throw to and the TE's aren't bad either!

[Real ale Madrid]

Cousins is brutal! He just cant trust himself with the throws and thus he's done at the end of this year - especially he got good WR's to throw to and the TE's aren't bad either!

I actually think Cousins is not that bad a player - he has had over 600 yards over the first 2 games but the mistakes are of the clanger variety. He reminds me a bit of Tony Romo a few years ago. Don't quit on the redskins yet although I admit the likelihood of them going 8-6 for the rest of the year is not good - especially given how strong the Eagles look now especially on defense.

[Real ale Madrid]

So the Pack and KC just fail to cover the spreads on week 1.

WEEK 2.

NY GIANTS (-4.0) v Saints 20/21 LOSE
RAVENS (-5.5) @ Browns 10/11 LOSE
STEELERS (-3.0) v Bengals 20/23 WIN
TITANS (+6.0) @ Lions 20/21 WIN
€10 @ 12.6/1 with b365.

A touch gutted actually last week as the Ravens fell short by a point and NY for some reason could only score 13 against the Saints.

This week i've gone for home form!

GREEN BAY (-6.0) v Lions 10/11
BUCCANEERS (-4.0) v Rams 10/11
CHIEFS (-3.0) v Jets Evens
COLTS (-2.5) v Chargers 10/11

€10 @12.92 / 1 with Sky.

4 teams who lost last week to cover home spreads! Seems mental but all 4 lost tough away games last week and I can't help but think that helps the spread slightly in each. Most unsure about the Colts but they simply have to win today.

[Real ale Madrid]

2467

Too busy to explain but here is this week's bet.

[swinfordfc]

2467

Too busy to explain but here is this week's bet.

Well the redskins and hawks have done their bit!

[Real ale Madrid]

Well the redskins and hawks have done their bit!

And the Professional Football team in Washington is 2-2 now!

[swinfordfc]

And the Professional Football team in Washington is 2-2 now!

They just about beat the browns! .... If they were to beat the ravens or the eagles ..... then maybe ...... they like mayo! :)

[Real ale Madrid]

Week 3
GREEN BAY (-6.0) v Lions 10/11 WIN
BUCCANEERS (-4.0) v Rams 10/11 LOSE
CHIEFS (-3.0) v Jets Evens WIN
COLTS (-2.5) v Chargers 10/11 WIN

€10 @12.92 / 1 with Sky.


Week 3 was looking good but an LA Rams Team who failed to score a TD in weeks 1 and 2 scuppered the week by scoring 37 points in Tampa.



Week 4
WASHINGTON (-7.0) v Browns 5/6 WIN
SEAHAWKS (-1.0) @ Jets 10/11 WIN
STEELERS (-3.0) v Chiefs 5/6 WIN
VIKINGS (-4.0) v Giants 20/23 WIN
€10 @ 10.99/1


Week 4 however it all comes together. Washington takes avantage of a couple of late turnovers to beat the spread v the Browns. The Jets' collapsing secondary gave the Seahawks the impetus to grab a much needed win in NY and the Steelers on SNF and the Vikings on MNF never looked in doubt after that. A nice €11 bonus from bet365 brought the total return to €120.97.

So after 4 weeks :
Starting Bank: €200.00
Current Bank: €230.97

Onto Week 5

COLTS (-4.5) v Bears 10/11
PATRIOTS (-10.5) @ Browns 10/11
EAGLES (-3.0) @ LIONS 5/6
VIKINGS (-6.0) v Texans 20/23

€10 @11.49/1

The Colts might only need 7 wins to win the AFC North and make the playoffs so they still have a lot to play for as the season goes on against a rudderless looking Bears team.
The Patriots, despite a weird home shutout against the Bills look pretty solid defensively and if they can get 24-30 pts away in Cleveland with Brady and a fit Gronk, then the spread surely looks beatable there.
The Eagles haven't beaten much but the Lions look poor and i'd fancy the Eagles to win and cover having had 2 weeks to prepare.
The Vikings continue to be underrated and i'll be backing them while that continues - I can't believe this spread against a Texans outfit who just lost JJ Watt.

[swinfordfc]

Week 3 was looking good but an LA Rams Team who failed to score a TD in weeks 1 and 2 scuppered the week by scoring 37 points in Tampa.



Week 4 however it all comes together. Washington takes avantage of a couple of late turnovers to beat the spread v the Browns. The Jets' collapsing secondary gave the Seahawks the impetus to grab a much needed win in NY and the Steelers on SNF and the Vikings on MNF never looked in doubt after that. A nice €11 bonus from bet365 brought the total return to €120.97.

So after 4 weeks :
Starting Bank: €200.00
Current Bank: €230.97

Onto Week 5

COLTS (-4.5) v Bears 10/11
PATRIOTS (-10.5) @ Browns 10/11
EAGLES (-3.0) @ LIONS 5/6
VIKINGS (-6.0) v Texans 20/23

€10 @11.49/1

The Colts might only need 7 wins to win the AFC North and make the playoffs so they still have a lot to play for as the season goes on against a rudderless looking Bears team.
The Patriots, despite a weird home shutout against the Bills look pretty solid defensively and if they can get 24-30 pts away in Cleveland with Brady and a fit Gronk, then the spread surely looks beatable there.
The Eagles haven't beaten much but the Lions look poor and i'd fancy the Eagles to win and cover having had 2 weeks to prepare.
The Vikings continue to be underrated and i'll be backing them while that continues - I can't believe this spread against a Texans outfit who just lost JJ Watt.

Ouch .... on the Eagles!

[Real ale Madrid]

Onto Week 5

COLTS (-4.5) v Bears 10/11 WIN
PATRIOTS (-10.5) @ Browns 10/11 WIN
EAGLES (-3.0) @ LIONS 5/6 LOSE
VIKINGS (-6.0) v Texans 20/23 WIN

€10 @11.49/1




Ouch .... on the Eagles!

Couldn't have put it better myself.

Week 6

Patriots (-7.5) v Bengals
Ravens (+3.5) @ Giants
Bills (-8.0) v 49ers
LA Rams (+3.0) @ Lions

€10 @ 13.23/1

It actually looks mental on paper. How on Earth are the Bills giving 2 scores to anyone but they are in great form which will stop eventually - but hopefully not today. The Pats offence looked like it could have got 50/60 points last week before a slow down, at home I fancy them to cover again this week. The Ravens are going well and I think the spread is too high at the Giants who look in a bit of disarray. And I've not taken the hint against the Lions after they done me last week - and after the Rams 2 very impressive wins on the road so far this year I'll back them to at least cover this week again.

[Real ale Madrid]

Vomit everywhere.

[swinfordfc]

Okay - maybe you do know about me with American Football! ... I think your right - the Redskins will get over 7.5 wins but do you think they make the playoffs? .... Think the Cowboys will win the Division! ... and it kills me to say that!

[Real ale Madrid]

Okay - maybe you do know about me with American Football! ... I think your right - the Redskins will get over 7.5 wins but do you think they make the playoffs? .... Think the Cowboys will win the Division! ... and it kills me to say that!

Cowboys look excellent.

Washington have a tough schedule from here on in, its currently the 4th toughest projected in the league - but if they can beat the Lions on Sunday - they then have 3 games in a row at home v Bengals (in London) , Vikings, Packers - they could win all 3 of those but they could easily lose those three also.
They need to beat Cincy and the Packers - if they do that they will be 7-3. Not a bad spot before they play in Dallas on Thanksgiving and then away in Arizona. They then finish with @Eagles, Panthers, Bears & Giants.
I'd fancy them to win their last 3 to get to 10 wins. And Considering Washington are in the W/C spot at the moment - I can't see who would get to 11 wins below them.

[swinfordfc]

Cowboys look excellent.

Washington have a tough schedule from here on in, its currently the 4th toughest projected in the league - but if they can beat the Lions on Sunday - they then have 3 games in a row at home v Bengals (in London) , Vikings, Packers - they could win all 3 of those but they could easily lose those three also.
They need to beat Cincy and the Packers - if they do that they will be 7-3. Not a bad spot before they play in Dallas on Thanksgiving and then away in Arizona. They then finish with @Eagles, Panthers, Bears & Giants.
I'd fancy them to win their last 3 to get to 10 wins. And Considering Washington are in the W/C spot at the moment - I can't see who would get to 11 wins below them.

The Lions game this weekend will be a shoot out - high scoring I think - still don't trust the skin's defence - it will be close but the Redskins have a habit of winning the close games of late so here's hoping! - and if they win, we be level with the Cowboys but they have a game less played and have the advantage over us by having already beating us.

[Real ale Madrid]

Disaster this week - late, kids parties 😀 , but still going to take a shot on the following to keep it up:

2479

[Real ale Madrid]

Here we go week 8 to try and fund a bit of Jazzing.

2483

4 away teams all to cover, madness!

[swinfordfc]

Real,

Going back on your original bet - don't think now that Washington will actually get over 7.5 wins! Think they will get exactly 7.5 wins - to many holes in that teams and the coaching sucks in fairest. Too many pens and some players are just not playing as a team - just for themselves! They just a average team in America!

[Real ale Madrid]

Real,

Going back on your original bet - don't think now that Washington will actually get over 7.5 wins! Think they will get exactly 7.5 wins - to many holes in that teams and the coaching sucks in fairest. Too many pens and some players are just not playing as a team - just for themselves! They just a average team in America!

You are very tough on Washington swinford, they still have a winning record - I still think they get to 8-5-1 but that won't make them playoff eligible.

[Real ale Madrid]

Week 6

Patriots (-7.5) v Bengals WIN
Ravens (+3.5) @ Giants LOSS
Bills (-8.0) v 49ers WIN
LA Rams (+3.0) @ Lions PUSH

€10 @ 13.23/1

Odel Beckham Jr's late TD for NYG scuppered this week's bet.


Week 7
Falcons (-5.5) v Chargers 20/21 LOSE
Buccaneers (+1.0) @ 49ers 20/23 WIN
Seahawks (+1.0) @ Cardinals 20/21 WIN
Broncos (-7.5) v Texans WIN

€10 @ 12.6/1


3 from 4 this week as the Chargers go into Atlanta and win. Chargers are not so bad!



Week 8
Patriots (-5.0) @ Bills 10/11 WIN
Chiefs (-3.0) @ Colts Evens WIN
NY Jets (-2.0) @ Browns 10/11 WIN
Vikings (-4.5) @ Bears 10/11 LOSE

€10 @ 12.91/1


All looking so good until the Vikings went into Chicago of all places and could only score 10. Norv Turner the fall guy for that on Tuesday by resigning.

Wagered to Date €130.00
Returns to Date €129.00
€1 down so far at almost half way.

Win - Loss - Push record so far is 22-9-1 - if I had €10 on each selection individually profit to date would be €108.82 - may need to look at strategy at the end of the season.

[swinfordfc]

You are very tough on Washington swinford, they still have a winning record - I still think they get to 8-5-1 but that won't make them playoff eligible.

Who the four wins against?

They wont beat the Vikings, Packers or Boys in the next 3 games and then they will just fall apart! They beat the eagles and the giants I think so they need to beat 2 of 3 which is Arizona, panthers and I'm honest, don't know the other team they have to play! :) ... and 8-5-1 doesn't make 16 games. I think they record will be 7-8-1 ;)

[Real ale Madrid]

8-7-1 I meant. Why won't they best the Vikings at home! They got 10 points in Chicago FFS! Anyway enough discussion on Washington!

[Real ale Madrid]

Week 9

2484

[BonnieShels]

I'd be giving up on GB at this stage. You never know what's gonna happen.

[Real ale Madrid]

Last week was a poor week with Green Bay inexplicably losing at home to the absolutely useless Colts and KC also failing to cover the spread.

This week is tough with some surprising results last week. Taking a punt on 4 home teams:

Jaguars (-2.5) v Texans 5/6
NY Jets (+1.0) v Rams 20/21
Chargers (-4.5) v Dolphins 10/11
Patriots (-7.0) v Seahawks 20/23
€10 @11.77/1 with Bet365

Leaning on the Patriots but they are winning well without playing great - I hope the big game brings out the best in them tonight.
The Jets are only playing their 3rd game at home of the season in week 10 - (hardly fair - another day's work that discussion) but I think their record is not as bad as it seems as a result.
And the dodgy Jags to beast the dodgier Texans - and cover.

[Real ale Madrid]

A week 10 wipeout - must try harder. 4 away wins - baffling.

Perhaps after seeing the 2, 3 and 4 NCAA seeds losing on Saturday, it should have been a que to maybe take it easy for a weekend.

But a tremendously exciting weekend of action. Really looking forward to the next 6 - 8 weeks.

Note too for the CFL semi finals - had a look at the Ti-Cats storm back from the Brink against the Eskimos yesterday evening only for a late INT to halt the comeback.
Conference finals next Sunday. The Esks' travel to Ottawa in the East and Calgary host the BC Lions in the West.

[Real ale Madrid]

Week 11. A Cracking evening in Prospect.

Lions (-6.0) v Jaguars 10/11
Steelers (-8.0) @ Browns 10/11
Dolphins (+1.0) @ Rams 20/23
Raiders (-6.0) v Texans 20/21

4 fold 12.30/1 B365

First up the Steelers can't afford any slip ups against the Browns as a real division race is on now with the Ravens in the AFC North. With the Ravens playing Dallas as well.
The Lions owe me one and can't play a humdinger every week - can they? - coming off a bye week I think they cover against the Jags. Big game for the 'Fins in LA - they are getting a point and I'm hoping they win behind Ajayi. Finally on Monday night I'm backing the Raiders who look far too good for the Texans in Mexico.

[swinfordfc]

Week 11. A Cracking evening in Prospect.

Lions (-6.0) v Jaguars 10/11
Steelers (-8.0) @ Browns 10/11
Dolphins (+1.0) @ Rams 20/23
Raiders (-6.0) v Texans 20/21

4 fold 12.30/1 B365

First up the Steelers can't afford any slip ups against the Browns as a real division race is on now with the Ravens in the AFC North. With the Ravens playing Dallas as well.
The Lions owe me one and can't play a humdinger every week - can they? - coming off a bye week I think they cover against the Jags. Big game for the 'Fins in LA - they are getting a point and I'm hoping they win behind Ajayi. Finally on Monday night I'm backing the Raiders who look far too good for the Texans in Mexico.


Nice bet! :)

Cant wait to see your week 12 ones! - how you see Thursday games going?

[Real ale Madrid]

Nice bet! :)

Cant wait to see your week 12 ones! - how you see Thursday games going?

Cheers - got more than the rub of the Green this week with the Lions hitting a late FG they didn't really need to beat the spread, Miami coming from 10 points down with 4 mins to go and that mental 4th down measurement that went against the Texans in Mexico - scandalous!

Would like to include the Vikings (+2.5) in the first Thanksgiving game in the acca but i'll wait until Sunday to do a bet. Think it will be a very close game. Hard to look past the Cowboys in the middle game but they are giving 7 points to your Washington Professional Football team which is a little on the high side - not sure id be looking at that from a betting perspective - a sure thing to watch though. The 3rd game is another good one - I reckon Pitt will have too much for the Colts but the game line is 9.5 to the away team which really makes no sense. That's too much.

With the good college football Friday and Saturday - its the best weekend of the year if you are an American football fan.
The big game Friday evening 8.30 Irish time is 5. Washington @ 23. Washington State - both ranked teams, big rivalry. Saturday you have 2.Michigan v 3. Ohio State at 5pm , the Iron Bowl Auburn/'Bama at 8.30 and a whole host of other good games with Florida / FSU the pick on after midnight. Sunday NFL and the CFL Grey Cup final between the Stamps and the Redblacks also Sunday night! A Feast!

[Real ale Madrid]

Just realised Andrew Luck is out tonight for the Colts, hence the large point spread

[Real ale Madrid]

Week 12.

2 wins from 11 weeks and in Profit.
Would recommend game line betting with Bet 365 - lines are including overtime and they pay a nice a parlay or acca bonus if you win.

Bets to date (1 x 50 pre season ) (11 x 10 weekly) = €160
Returns to Date: Week 4 profit €120.97, Week 11 Profit €135.15 - Total to Date: €276.32
Profit to Date: €116.32

So with 6 weeks to go lets see can we strike again:

Dolphins (-7.0) v 49ers 20/21
Bills (-7.5) v Jaguars 10/11
Giants (-7.0) @ Browns 10/11
Falcons (-4.5) v Cardinals 10/11

No major rocket science in this weeks selections - 3 woeful teams; 49ers, Jags and Browns to all lose convincingly and taking a view that the Falcons are getting a few points at home they may not normally get after a defeat at the Eagles last week.

[Real ale Madrid]

No bet this week, back next week.

[swinfordfc]

Real,

Do you think Washington will make the play offs? - I think the Bucs will pip them for it!

[Real ale Madrid]

Real,

Do you think Washington will make the play offs? - I think the Bucs will pip them for it!

The Buccs have the momentum for sure swinford. But Can Washington overhaul the New York footballing Giants ? Washington have 3 very winnable games before they meet on the Final Sunday in Washington. New York have Dallas next - lose that and if Washington can win the next 3 games, then it will come down to a 1 game shoot out presuming the Bucs win 3 of their last 4 ( 2 x Saints , @ Dallas , v Carolina )

I think the Buccs get to 10-6 and then it will come down to that last day shootout in Washington. Your Game against the Eagles on Sunday is massive.

The only thing that could upset the apple cart is Green Bay or Minnesota running the table the last 4 games - don't think that will happen.

[swinfordfc]

The Buccs have the momentum for sure swinford. But Can Washington overhaul the New York footballing Giants ? Washington have 3 very winnable games before they meet on the Final Sunday in Washington. New York have Dallas next - lose that and if Washington can win the next 3 games, then it will come down to a 1 game shoot out presuming the Bucs win 3 of their last 4 ( 2 x Saints , @ Dallas , v Carolina )

I think the Buccs get to 10-6 and then it will come down to that last day shootout in Washington. Your Game against the Eagles on Sunday is massive.

The only thing that could upset the apple cart is Green Bay or Minnesota running the table the last 4 games - don't think that will happen.

We will be able to move the ball against the Eagles but our defense is awful.... and I mean awful ... they cant stop nothing like!

[Real ale Madrid]

2500

Time against me but a late roll of the dice on the 4 late games

[Real ale Madrid]

For F--k sake, Russell Wilson doing a great Ryan Fitzpatrick impression. Few receivers could do with some catching practice. Maybe Seattle used up all their sporting luck last night in that shocker of an MLS cup Final.

[Real ale Madrid]

Good to see Washington win swinford. Going to be a close run thing the NFC wildcards now.

[swinfordfc]

Good to see Washington win swinford. Going to be a close run thing the NFC wildcards now.

Yes it will be - don't think they will catch the Giants now - they need the Bucs to slipped up but I think we will lose to Carolina on Monday night!

[Real ale Madrid]

Week 15 - Big night tonight - only 3 more weeks to go. Some vital games.

Texans (-3.5) v Jaguars 10/11
Bills (-10.0) v Browns 10/11
Ravens (-5.5) v Eagles 10/11
Falcons (-14.0) v 49ers 20/21

12.59/1 with bet 365

No rocket science again - 4 home teams with everything to play for at this stage ( albeit the Bills need a miracle ) against 4 teams out of the playoff picture.

A quality pair of games on sky this evening. Lions @ Giants followed by Pats @ Broncos. Looking forward to it.