World Cup Qualifying - Group D

[SkStu]

Wales
Austria
Serbia
Ireland
Moldova
Georgia

So thoughts now turn towards Belgrade in September...what do we want to see over the next couple of months? What should we be afraid of in terms of the opposition?

I'd like to see some of our most promising youngsters blooded quickly. Now is the time to kick on and bring some younger players through. A large portion of our squad have the experience of qualification and participation that they can pass on to the likes of Byrne, Lenihan, Browne, O'Dowda and also bringing in Pilkington and Hogan. That's a decent crop and I'm sure I've missed others. We can also take advantage of the fact that this is a group that we can expect to do fairly well in and qualify from 4th seed spot.

I haven't seen much of Serbia but know they have a very promising crop of young players that will come through for them this year - u20 and u19 champs/finalists iirc. Austria are strong but one dimensional and you could see maybe taking 4 points off them. I think Wales are the pick of the 1st seeds from our perspective and our all round quality will be enough to expect good performances and results from. Moldova and Georgia we need to be aiming for 6 points off both.

No room for some of the senior players, this is the best possible set of circumstances for us to strike positively through results and kick on with squad development.

Onwards and upwards!

[Stuttgart88]

I'm not taking anything for granted. We made a balls of our 2004 Euro group as no1 seeds. Shortly after our last 16 exit in Suwon we beat Finland 3-0 away in a friendly with fresh faces. Look what happened next.

Hopefully Wales will have a Euro Championship winning hangover!

I don't think Austria will be as bad again. 9 wins in qualifying I think.

Duffy will be suspended against Serbia(?). What about Hendrick and Long. Each would have missed the q/f.

I think we're in a good place though. The best performers at the Euros will be still around and much wiser. We left some very good players at home. I think management learnt some useful lessons too.

[NeverFeltBetter]

It's hard to say about Serbia. Great youth on the way up, but their Euro qualifying campaign was a catastrophe, and their fans behavior is so self-damaging. Ireland well capable of taking points off higher seeds.

[ger121]

Ireland well capable of taking points off higher seeds.

That's the difference that gives me hope in the WC Qualifiers. Not many of us believed that less than a year ago, as we hadn't beaten a higher seed since the Dutch game in 2001, France (in 90 mins) & Slovakia aside. The wins over Germany & Italy prove we can and even the play-off vs Bosnia who despite the rankings for the seedlings was a big result. Nothing to fear in this group so a great chance to get to Russia.

[irishultra]

Serbia are very very good on paper but they flatter to deceive. When they did qualify in 06 they tanked completely.

[Real ale Madrid]

I don't think Austria will be as bad again. 9 wins in qualifying I think.

.

Yeah but Russia and Sweden didn't win a game either so that form is a bit misleading I think.

[Metrostars]

Wales, Georgia and Austria we have more knowledge about. The other two, Serbia and Moldova:

Serbia have some well known players like Ivanovic & Matic(Both Chelsea), Kolarov(Man City), Tosic(CSKA Moscow), Tadic(Southampton), Mitrovic(Newcastle)
Serbia did very poorly the Euro 2016 qualifying. Remember they had the incident against Albania with the flares, the drone and the flag, the subsequent fighting. Serbia were deducted 3 points and also a 3-0 win awarded to Albania:

p1fxF1PZqvs

http://i68.tinypic.com/2mwghnn.jpg
Slavoljub Muslin is their new manager, appointed in April.


Moldova only got 2 points in qualifying - away draws to Russia and Liechtenstein.

Full Schedule:

5 September 2016
Georgia v Austria
Serbia v Republic of Ireland
Wales v Moldova

6 October 2016
Austria v Wales
Moldova v Serbia
Republic of Ireland v Georgia

9 October 2016
Wales v Georgia
Moldova v Republic of Ireland
Serbia v Austria

12 November 2016
Austria v Republic of Ireland
Georgia v Moldova
Wales v Serbia

24 March 2017
Georgia v Serbia
Austria v Moldova
Republic of Ireland v Wales

11 June 2017
Moldova v Georgia
Republic of Ireland v Austria
Serbia v Wales

2 September 2017
Georgia v Republic of Ireland
Serbia v Moldova
Wales v Austria

5 September 2017
Austria v Georgia
Moldova v Wales
Republic of Ireland v Serbia

6 October 2017
Georgia v Wales
Austria v Serbia
Republic of Ireland v Moldova

9 October 2017
Moldova v Austria
Serbia v Georgia
Wales v Republic of Ireland

[Wangball]

I have to say I'm far more confident about World Cup qualifying now than I was before the Euro's. The emergence of Duffy, Brady, Hendrick and Randolph as international players has really energized me.. Add to that Coleman, McCarthy, McClean & Long who are all the right side of 30 and things don't seem as bad as they were before the Championship.

I wonder what players we'll lose to International retirement - John O'Shea? Shay Given? Glenn Whealan? Robbie Keane?

[Kingdom]

Fixture-wise, we've got a great draw. I'd be happy with a draw in Beograd almost always, and I think we're as likely to get a positive result there in the first fixture as we are at any time. If we had 8 points going into 2017 I'd be very confident of pushing the group close.

The composition of the group concerns me as much as it excites me. The cluster of better seeds in the group could be said to be interchangeable. Wales Austria Serbia Ireland, there's not a lot to choose between them. it is unlikely that one team is going to walk the group, and by that token it's probably fair to assume that matches right to the end will be crucial (i.e. no dead-rubbers) which hasn't always been great for us. that said, if we'd to go to Cardiff needing a point to qualify, or needing to stop a Wales win to qualify, I'd fancy us to do it. Wales are very decent in the front 5, but they're not as good as people believe they are in the back 5.

Serbia have the potential to absolute murder everyone in the group, or to sink without a trace again. That's why I'm happy to face them away first, take a point, and see how they progress in relation to us.

[TheBoss]

I believe that Shane Long, Jeff Hendrick and of course Shane Duffy are suspended for the Serbia game.

This group is going to be crazy, any of the top 4 could top this group. I can't see anyone run away with it, there is just too much similarity between the teams. Even Georgia and Moldova will gain points here imo.

[SkStu]

do their cards carry over? I'm sure Duffy's does but does the accumulation for tournament games carry over to group stages of next qualifying? I probably should know this by now and not have to question you all!

[TheBoss]

do their cards carry over? I'm sure Duffy's does but does the accumulation for tournament games carry over to group stages of next qualifying? I probably should know this by now and not have to question you all!

Match suspensions in relation to an expulsion pronounced on a player outside of a competition (separate match[es]) or not served during the competition for which they were intended (elimination or the last match in the competition) are carried over as follows:


a) FIFA World Cup™: carried over to the representative team’s subsequent official match;


b) competitions subject to an age limit: carried over to the representative team’s next offi cial match in the same age group. Where the suspension cannot be served in the same age group, it shall be carried over to the next highest age category;


c) FIFA Confederations Cup: carried over to the representative team’s next official match;


d) FIFA Club World Cup: carried over to the club’s next official match;


e) confederation competitions for representative teams: carried over to the representative team’s next official match in a competition organised by FIFA;


f) competitions in which teams have been chosen in accordance with certain criteria (cultural, geographical, historical etc.): if the regulations of these competitions refer to the FIFA regulations for disciplinary sanctions, the suspension is carried over to the representative team’s next official match;


g) friendly matches: carried over to the representative team’s next friendly match.

[Stuttgart88]

But what about second yellows, Long and Hendrick?

[TheBoss]

It seems I may have read it wrong, looks like they are OK. :eek:

[Stuttgart88]

Dan McDonnell reckons Scott Hogan is well placed to come into the mix, as well as Browne, Forrester, O'Dowda and Byrne.

There's definitely going to be a gap for at least one forward and I'd forgotten about Hogan and Sheridan. Stokes and Rooney have a chance I'd say.

Obviously there's Judge (with luck and time), Arter, O'Kane, Hayes, Doherty, Cunningham and others too.

And I think everyone is forgetting Marc Wilson.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/euro-2016/ireland-at-the-euros-the-good-the-bad-the-ones-to-watch-and-the-team-to-start-world-cup-campaign-34840616.html

[DeLorean]

What did O'Neill say in relation to Whelan?


O'Neill cast doubt on his future intentions yesterday.


Edit- Nevermind! Only saw this (http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/euro-2016/oneill-reveals-fears-at-lack-of-striker-options-34839089.html) now.

[SkStu]

Great reminder Stutts about what the future might look like. Positive stuff overall.

On group d, here's the balls.ie perspective.

http://www.balls.ie/football/irelands-world-cup-qualifying-draw/338259

[davidatrb]

I like having Georgia in our group as we have always beaten them, but they are undoubtedly going to cause an upset against one of the other teams as they tend to do now and again, like what happened to Scotland.

[BonnieShels]

One day we'll be the team on the end of the upset.

[Stuttgart88]

True and for all the positivity around the team, I still think that at our worst we can be terrible (Glasgow, Bordeaux and even Warsaw). I think our good days are getting better but we haven't eradicated the bad days.

[paul_oshea]

I think O'Neill as Kingdom says cant spot these things as he is too emotionally involved, keane should be talking to him, or guppy or someone, it was glaringly obvious against Sweden too but he did nothing about it. Thats when our worst can be eradicated then and only then. Game management is more than just hte players knowning when to go down, when to foul, when to hold back etc, its about the management getting the tactics/subs/system and formation spot on and changing when needs be. Oneill has a plan B, but he doesn't have a plan when something is unfolding around him that needs to be addressed right away.

[Real ale Madrid]

One day we'll be the team on the end of the upset.

One Day?

We've never lost in Cyprus, or Macedonia, or drawn in Liechtenstein.

[BonnieShels]

One Day?

We've never lost in Cyprus, or Macedonia, or drawn in Liechtenstein.

With Georgia. Not in general.

But for McGeady we could have already had it.

[SkStu]

One day we'll be the team on the end of the upset.

Congratulations! New Level Achieved: Paul O'Shea.

[Real ale Madrid]

With Georgia. Not in general.

But for McGeady we could have already had it.

I get you now - didn't exactly hammer them in Dublin either. Tough games.

[dynamo kerry]

So who do we think will retire - there's been nothing since they came home - I guess everyone is on holiday. Likely to be announcements at the Oman game perhaps.

Keane - I'm not so sure he will retire from international ball if he's still playing club level.. plus if there's an acceptance he won't play much I'm not against him being there to help maintain experience in the squad
O'Shea - similar but I have a feeling he'll go now that Seamus is on field captain
Mcgeady - don't think he will retire yet - international football is the main positive in his career
Shay - definite retirement

any others?

[DeLorean]

Whelan and Hoolahan have been suggested but I think not and hope not respectively.

[dynamo kerry]

Whelan and Hoolahan have been suggested but I think not and hope not respectively.


I'd suggest that both to an extent consider themselves to have unfinished business with Ireland. I can imagine a scenario where they are both around for the whole of the next campaign and becoming gradually less influential as it goes on. Can't see either "retiring" formally.

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

Given at Euro 2024.

http://www.avsforum.com/photopost/data/2204128/f/f7/f79437b5_arnold-terminator-face-25058-20111114-154.jpeg

Ian Lawlah?

[DeLorean]

Jonathan Wilson on the success of 3-5-2 at this Euros:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jul/05/the-question-why-has-3-5-2-worked-at-euro-2016-jonathan-wilson

This is why I think we should look at it. Not because of an ideological predilection (though I admit I love 352) but because it’d suit us, it’d suit our players and their strengths, because nobody would be asked to do a role that doesn’t suit him. I loved the balance of our 2002 side, a 442 with square pegs in square holes, partnerships and combinations in every key segment. Wales have this lovely balance in their system and I think we’d have it if we used it.


Like you I love 3-5-2 and have been so frustrated over the years as to why we don't play it given the available players.

3-5-1-1 (with a diamond). I do like the look of it. Keogh and Clark are probably mobile enough for now to pull it off and Hendrick and McClean would be ideal for working back and filling the gaps. You could try swapping McClean and Brady also or obviously play a more traditional 3-5-2 with two strikers instead of having Hoolahan.

http://www.footballuser.com/formations/2016/07/1468007_Ireland.jpg

[Fixer82]

I'd suggest that both to an extent consider themselves to have unfinished business with Ireland. I can imagine a scenario where they are both around for the whole of the next campaign and becoming gradually less influential as it goes on. Can't see either "retiring" formally.

I agree, a la Kevin Sheedy in the USA '94 qualification

[BonnieShels]

3-5-1-1 (with a diamond). I do like the look of it. Keogh and Clark are probably mobile enough for now to pull it off and Hendrick and McClean would be ideal for working back and filling the gaps. You could try swapping McClean and Brady also or obviously play a more traditional 3-5-2 with two strikers instead of having Hoolahan.

http://www.footballuser.com/formations/2016/07/1468007_Ireland.jpg

Play that against Oman and watch us fly.

Unless that's Long in goal and we're playing Herbert Chapman stylee.

[davidatrb]

Wow. Wales really have a few things to put right in this qualifying group. They beat Austria in 1975 and Moldova once in the 90's. Apart from that their record against these particular teams in competitive internationals is dire. Some examples.

1994-10-12 Moldova 3-2 Wales
1994-11-16 Georgia 5-0 Wales ... Neville Southall, Gary Speed, Dean Saunders, Ian Rush and interestingly Chris Coleman played in this one. Unbelievable. Okay Georgia had Kinkladze and Ketsbaia at the time but still.
1995-06-07 Wales 0-1 Georgia
2012-09-11 Serbia 6-1 Wales
2013-09-10 Wales 0-3 Serbia

I have no doubt that these results are less relevant than their recent excellent Qualification campaign and Finals. Just saying that they can put these things right and probably will.

[tetsujin1979]

According to wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_UEFA_G roup_D#Discipline - Duffy is suspended for the group opener against Serbia, but so are Kolorov and Matic.

[DeLorean]

We'll take that!

[paul_oshea]

We'll take that!


Strange Matic isnt listed here for some reason...was he injured? He played the game beforehand
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbia_national_football_team

Nothing to fear in that squad with those two missing we should be looking to win that game in my opinion.

[DeLorean]

Probably injured, unavailable anyway (http://www.internationalsoccerteams.com/match-previews/serbia-vs-russia-preview/). He's on the list underneath it. He threatened to quit international football unless the attitude of his teammates improved after they lost 4-1 to Czech Rep in a friendly last November.

Didn't realise Mitrovic is only 21, looks a lot older.

I'd still take a draw.

[Kingdom]

A draw in Beograd will be a result I'd walk away with every day of the week. They are going to be up for this group after their last two disasters, and with the under 20 prospects.

Also, I've been espousing the merits of a 352/3411/343 as a cure for our ills for about 18 months now. With the options we have on the flank, and at centre back, it's disappointing that we haven't given it a run-out yet.
I'd state that it could be a runner with Whelan as the stopper for the likes of Moldova and Georgia also, keeping the system and playing more on the front foot. We've a lot of players that are interchangeable around the pitch. We need an interchangeable formation.

[jbyrne]

A draw in Beograd will be a result I'd walk away with every day of the week. They are going to be up for this group after their last two disasters, and with the under 20 prospects.


agree. when was the last time that we beat any team of any sort of quality away from home in a qualifier? was it Scotland in 87??

[DeLorean]

We probably treated it as a must-win at the time but the victory in Armenia turned out to be a pretty impressive result in hindsight.

[paul_oshea]

I had a look at thay squad and makeupq and also the clubs played for. I was specifically thinking about osarusan and nigel harps points about players prefering to stay in their own leagues as more chance of international recognition or chances and also uprooting their family. I am not really sure i ever bought that point or argument. There is a serbian midfielder playing in Astana. Now i have no idea of the wages being paid but if a player is willing to move to kazakhstan and is still getting called up for his country then a move to ireland would surely be just as appetising. And id imagine a player playing for the serbian national team would be an asset to any Loi club. Sometimes I think its more about being open minded and taking a risk than anything else.

I'd imagine bar astana kazakh football isnt of a much better standard than Loi(as previous club have shown)

Is there any website that details countries by average wage for a soccer player?

[tetsujin1979]

his transfer value is estimated here at 1.4million: http://info.nowgoal.com/en/team/player.aspx?playerid=126953&teamid=683 and the Astana stadium holds 30,000
I'm going to guess his wages are out of the reach of any League of Ireland club

[Charlie Darwin]

his transfer value is estimated here at 1.4million: http://info.nowgoal.com/en/team/player.aspx?playerid=126953&teamid=683 and the Astana stadium holds 30,000
I'm going to guess his wages are out of the reach of any League of Ireland club
It holds 30,000 but I don't think they've ever filled it. Their average attendance is around 5,000, which is 60% higher than Cork City's. Astana have a massive, potentially limitless (within FFP) budget because they're owned by the state oil company. They bought a player for €2 million a couple of years ago, for instance. Plus the difference in cost of living means their players are among the best-paid people in the country, whereas even the highest-earner in the LOI doesn't earn much over the average industrial wage.

[paul_oshea]

I didnt find astana that cheap! I think its similar to brazil in its distribution of wealth. And to enjoy your lifestyle you need to be earning western wages. I remember asking a yank working there how much a standard 2 bed would be there and he was saying $200-250k. stadium is never full alright ice hockey is much bigger over there.

But fair enough their transfer budget is still much bigger by the sounds of it.

[paul_oshea]

But the overall point i was trying to make was these lads can obviously be enticed regardless of situation, circumstance or international aspirations.

[Stuttgart88]

Lots of Irish guys have gone to mad places to play, but none of our decent players, that's probably true. I'm just not sure far flung foreign clubs have that much interest in our players though. It's both a supply and demand issue.

[paul_oshea]

I was also saying it the other way around as well Stutts.

In the Seribans case, I'm sure he speaks Russian, and the Kazakhs all speak russian, so there wouldn't be a language barrier, so that might be one plus in that type of transfer.

[Kingdom]

We probably treated it as a must-win at the time but the victory in Armenia turned out to be a pretty impressive result in hindsight.

It absolutely was - with hindsight. Nobody expected Armenia to figure as much as they did in that group.

Since we've started challenging for groups (okay okay, for runner's up in groups) the formula is pretty simple. 6 points from the weak teams or lower seeds. Draw with the higher seeds away and nick one win at home. That's a pretty solid template if you're a second or third seed to begin with. When you're fourth seed that is a different kettle of fish!

If we were to remain unbeaten on the road, beating Moldova and Georgia home and away, and got one victory at home remaining unbeaten against the others, I'd be happy enough with that.

[paul_oshea]

You might be happy enough, but there is no Germany, Spain or France to run away with the group. So that will not be enough. I predict us needing two home wins at least and draws against all of them away. That might still not be enough, for second - if the 2 wins don't come against those who would/will/are finish ahead of us.

Yours would have us at 19 points, assuming we draw the other 1 at home, I am not sure that would be enough, as tight and all as the group could become.

[Kingdom]

You might be happy enough, but there is no Germany, Spain or France to run away with the group. So that will not be enough. I predict us needing two home wins at least and draws against all of them away. That might still not be enough, for second - if the 2 wins don't come against those who would/will/are finish ahead of us.

Yours would have us at 19 points, assuming we draw the other 1 at home, I am not sure that would be enough, as tight and all as the group could become.

Listen it's all about opinions. For us not to lose a game snatch one win at home against our rivals and draw the rest, while doing the double over Georgia and moldova would give us 20 points.

Wales d d 2
Serbia w d 4
Austria d d 2
Georgia w w 6
Moldova w w 6
20 pts.

Austria quite frankly have a stinker of a start. After the disaster of the Euro campaign, they've to go to Tblisi and win, then they host Wales and visit Beograd in the Oct double-header. Regardless of how they've done, I'm happy to go to Vienna and come away with a point at the end of this year. If Austria aren't careful, they could be out of contention by the time 2017 rolls around - just look at how tough it was for us after Euro 2012, despite us not really having a swinging chance in 2012, Austria had a nice group this time round.

I decided to have a look back to see how implausible it would be for us to remain unbeaten and not make the top two.

Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? 0
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a World qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Once - our group in 2006.
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after remaining unbeaten in the past 18 years? Twice, one of which was our group for Euro 2000 when Croatia didn't make it through.
Do you know how many teams have not finished in the top 2 in a Euro qualifying group after losing one game in the past 18 years? 4 times, again which included our group of 2006.