For Ireland to make the Round of 16...

[legendz]

We need at least two third placed teams on less than 4 points.

A: Romania not to beat Albania.
B: England to beat Slovakia. Wales and Russia can't both finish on 4 points.
C: Germany to beat N. Ireland.
D: Czech Republic not to beat Turkey.
F: Portugal not to beat Hungary or Iceland and Austria to draw.

E: We have to beat Italy. If we can't win a game having lost a game, we'll deserve to be going home.

Groups B and C seem our best hopes. I'll be eagerly watching Romania v Albania in group A tonight. Come on Albania! Do it for Ireland.

[Stuttgart88]

Thanks for this. Weds will be awful if we need to win 5-0!

[legendz]

Thanks for this. Weds will be awful if we need to win 5-0!

Exactly! In some ways it's where having some 3rd placed teams go through makes things interesting though not everyone would agree with that. I'll be watching all the group games before we kick-off against Italy eager for certain results to go our way. While the players will be down after yesterday, if results go our way that knowing a win over Italy, while very difficult, puts our destiny back in our hands, it should be a lift to the squad.

After yesterday's defeat against Belgium, the first hurdle in making the Round of 16 starts with Romania v Albania tonight. Come on Albania! At least draw!!

[davidatrb]

If Romania do look like winning then a 3-0 win for France versus Swiss might help us too especially if Swiss pick up a few cards. An early red for Swiss would be a good omen.

[legendz]

If Romania do look like winning then a 3-0 win for France versus Swiss might help us too especially if Swiss pick up a few cards. An early red for Swiss would be a good omen.

Yeah, if Romania do win, we'll need France to win 4-0 over Switzerland to ensure any unlikely win over Italy will get us above the Swiss! The old enemy England v Slovakia and their old enemy Germany v N. Ireland seem best placed to help us out in that regard.

The four best third-placed teams are determined according to the following criteria:

1. Higher number of points obtained;
2. Superior goal difference;
3. Higher number of goals scored;
4. Fair play conduct;
5. Position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system.

[davidatrb]

Adding some objective assessments of probabilities

A: Romania not to beat Albania. (Albania or draw is 8/11 ~ 58% chance)

B: England to beat Slovakia. Wales and Russia can't both finish on 4 points. (3/4 ~ 57% chance)

C: Germany to beat N. Ireland. (2/7 ~ 78% chance)

D: Czech Republic not to beat Turkey. (Turkey or draw is 8/13 ~ 61% chance)

F: Portugal not to beat Hungary (11/5 ~ 31% chance) or Iceland and Austria to draw (13/5 ~ 27% chance). Combined about 50% chance of at least one..

I think we would be very unlucky if at least two of those didn't happen.

We WILL know exactly what we need before our match. We play last.

Finally Ireland are 9/4 with the bookies to win the match and also 9/4 to qualify from group! so taking all into account a quick guess would be 33% chance of qualifying... So all not lost at all. Better than the roll of a dice but not as good as a coin toss.

[IsMiseSean]

Am I right in thinking we could finish 2nd if Sweden beat Belgium 1-0 and we beat Italy 3-0 therefore finishing above them on goals scored?

[davidatrb]

Am I right in thinking we could finish 2nd if Sweden beat Belgium 1-0 and we beat Italy 3-0 therefore finishing above them on goals scored?

Yes.

I think the difference is that runner up probably gets Portugal but could be lucky and face Hungary or Iceland either.

3rd in E will play probably France or Spain. Or Swiss or Croatia if they can win their last games.

So now I'm cheering for either a Swiss win or a 3-0 plus France win tonight!

[legendz]

Am I right in thinking we could finish 2nd if Sweden beat Belgium 1-0 and we beat Italy 3-0 therefore finishing above them on goals scored?

That's correct.

3rd place from Group E if amongst the best 4 will take on Group A winners, most likely France, or Group D winners, most likely Spain.

Group E runners-up will take on Group F winners, mostly likely Hungary or Portugal.

Italy the Group E winners will take on Group D runners-up, most likely Croatia or Czech Republic.

[Stuttgart88]

Am I right in thinking we could finish 2nd if Sweden beat Belgium 1-0 and we beat Italy 3-0 therefore finishing above them on goals scored?
I'll have some of what you're having Sean!

[IsMiseSean]

I'll have some of what you're having Sean!

It's probably a tad out of reach alright.

[legendz]

I'll have some of what you're having Sean!


It's probably a tad out of reach alright.
No harm in mentioning what would be required. Essentially any win of any kind should do for the honour of taking on France or Spain!

[tricky_colour]

Am I right in thinking we could finish 2nd if Sweden beat Belgium 1-0 and we beat Italy 3-0 therefore finishing above them on goals scored?



Thinking we will win 3-0 is not right!! Stick to 1-0!

[SkStu]

A: Romania not to beat Albania. (Albania or draw is 8/11 ~ 58% chance)

Half way there...

[DannyInvincible]

Albania leading Romania 1-0, which is good for us. A Romania loss or draw means we'll just need one other result mentioned above to go our way if we do finish third on four points.

[Lionel Ritchie]

We need at least two third placed teams on less than 4 points.

A: Romania not to beat Albania.
B: England to beat Slovakia. Wales and Russia can't both finish on 4 points.
C: Germany to beat N. Ireland.
D: Czech Republic not to beat Turkey.
F: Portugal not to beat Hungary or Iceland and Austria to draw.

E: We have to beat Italy. If we can't win a game having lost a game, we'll deserve to be going home.

Groups B and C seem our best hopes. I'll be eagerly watching Romania v Albania in group A tonight. Come on Albania! Do it for Ireland.

Albania just hit the front against Romania. The stars are aligning. I can feel it in my dicky knee. I fully agree with point E as well. Italy or no, if you can't beat a team with no skin in it you deserve to go home.

[tricky_colour]

Albania are winning I should know I backed them at 3-1 one of my fav teams I livke the underdogs, the love hier
football too, first ever championship goal


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhaWoc1_oDg

[tricky_colour]

I like his run after


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9Az0mIxpFc

[IsMiseSean]

The football experts over at Balls.ie have tweeted 'Not good news for Ireland, as Albania take the lead'.
Go home lads, you're drunk.
https://twitter.com/ballsdotie/status/744616801556926464

[Stuttgart88]

I even love their flag even if it has all kinds of far right connotations. That's a proper fcuking eagle.

[DannyInvincible]

The football experts over at Balls.ie have tweeted 'Not good news for Ireland, as Albania take the lead'.
Go home lads, you're drunk.
https://twitter.com/ballsdotie/status/744616801556926464

The only scenario where they think it might be ideal is if we were to finish third on two points, I'm guessing, but even if that was to happen, it's unlikely two points would be enough for us to progress. Even if there were a number of other third-place teams with two points, our goal difference would do us no favours either as it would remain at -3 if we draw with Italy. Romania's would be -1 if they draw this game against Albania, so they'd be ahead of us anyway.

Edit: Romania lost anyway.

[IsMiseSean]

If Albania & Romania had drawn, I think it still would have been impossible for us to qualify on 2 points because of our -3 GD.

[TrapAPony]

Albania just hit the front against Romania. The stars are aligning. I can feel it in my dicky knee. I fully agree with point E as well. Italy or no, if you can't beat a team with no skin in it you deserve to go home.

Ya, everything will probably go in our favour...everything except for us doing the business.

[legendz]

Result 1 has gone our way. Thank you Albania! 2 points was never going to be enough for us with a goal difference of -3. Usually at least 3 points are need with a win and a draw always have being enough so far.

Result 2 that we need is the old enemy England to beat Slovakia tonight. That will guarantee that a win of any kind on Wednesday night will guarantee qualification to take on France or Spain.

Sometimes in sport when you suffer a setback, a result can come in from somewhere to lift spirits. The players are naturally down after Saturday. If they get word tonight that a win over Italy will do, it should help lift spirits in the camp and set focus on what's required. It will be good to have our destiny in the tournament back in our own hands.

[Real ale Madrid]

If England win tonight a 1 goal defeat for NIR puts them into the L16 I think.

[davidatrb]

Yes I think it will be clearer tonight.

If England win as expected then N. Ireland (Group C) is likely to be a best placed third (if you assume that they more or less match Slovakia's margin of defeat with a goal to spare).
I also think that if Portugal get at least a point then there is no way that Group F won't take another best third.
Then assume (as we have to) that Ireland win then we will also be a best place third.

That gives C,E and F. With the last best placed 3rd probably going to Czech (D) if they beat Turkey - otherwise Slovakia (B) might hold on.

I'm kind of assuming no massive swing in goal differences, its been a low scoring tournament so far, and also considering the last round of games can be quite cagey (eg last night 1 goal in 2 games).

So if my assumptions hold (England win, Portugal at least 1 point, no hammerings, Ireland win) then CDEF gives us Spain or Croatia in the Round of 16 but if Czech slip then BCEF gives us France (would also see England get N.I. by the way).

I know we have to win and that is all that really matters, but this analysis kind of keeps the interest up for the next couple of days ....

[Stuttgart88]

I'd say the real-world odds are very much that 3rd place in our group will be max 2 points.

[davidatrb]

I'd say the real-world odds are very much that 3rd place in our group will be max 2 points.

We are 9/4 to win which implies about 30% chance we win or 70% chance we don't.

Sweden are 4/1 which implies about 20% chance they win and 80% chance they don't.

Probability that both DONT win is 0.7 * 0.8 = 0.56.

So you're about right, at 56% chance it's more likely that both teams will finish on two points or less. But that's not worth thinking about, I think with our goal difference that it's impossible to qualify on 2 points? Most 3rd placed teams already have 3 points except Portugal and Czech. Czech if they lose Turkey will be third, if they draw their goal difference can't disimprove - so that's no good.

I honestly fancy our chances to win the match. We are playing for our lives, Italy have nothing to play for - we should win or as ppl have said we don't deserve our place in the competition any way.

[Morbo]

The group F winner would be nice, that is a weak group, we could take them. I hope if we go a goal up we don't settle fro 1-0 against Italy, we should go gung-ho to try and get the 3-0.

[Lionel Ritchie]

The group F winner would be nice, that is a weak group, we could take them. I hope if we go a goal up we don't settle fro 1-0 against Italy, we should go gung-ho to try and get the 3-0.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/b1/7c/ce/b17cce305734368fbafecb0e257300b4.jpg

...though any win will do nicely thanks.

[legendz]

The group F winner would be nice, that is a weak group, we could take them. I hope if we go a goal up we don't settle fro 1-0 against Italy, we should go gung-ho to try and get the 3-0.

I've enjoyed watching Portugal in the tournament so far. I think they have played some of the best football. Just because they've drawn the first two games, it doesn't mean they won't click into some form in the knockout stages if they get that far.

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/andy-mcgeady-luck-of-the-draw-will-play-little-part-in-euro-2016-1.2459018

It doesn't make much of a difference to Ireland as we can't win the group but the article above sets out unfairness in the tournament set-up.

Essentially group winners paths to the semi-final are as follows:
Winner A: CDE3 - B2/F2
Winner B: ACD3 - F1/E2
Winner C: ABF3 - E1/D2
Winner D: BEF3 - A2/C2
Winner E: D2 - C1/ABF3
Winner F: E2 - B1/ACD3

Winners A and D paths to the semi-finals are: 3rd place and runners-up.
Winners B and C paths to the semi-finals are: 3rd place and group winners.
Winners E and F paths to the semi-finals are: runners-up and group winners.

Of the group winners, A and D would seem to have an easier semi-final route while E and F winners will have a tougher task ahead of them. A more evenly balanced semi-final route would have been:

Winners A, B, C and D semi-final route: 3rd place and group winners.
Winners E and F semi-final route: group runners-up and group runners-up.

[Stuttgart88]

Wanting England to win is hard work

[legendz]

The old enemy didn't help us. The point should see Slovakia into the last 16 as one of the best 3rd placed teams.

Over to Germany next. We need them to beat N Ireland tomorrow.

[davidatrb]

The old enemy didn't help us. The point should see Slovakia into the last 16 as one of the best 3rd placed teams.

Over to Germany next. We need them to beat N Ireland tomorrow.

And the result for Slovakia tonight will make N. Ireland even more desperate for a draw.

[BonnieShels]

I figured if we were going down that we may as well take England with us. With Wales coasting I figured that a Slovakia victory would soothe my seemingly inevitable disappointment as England squirm in 3rd. But alas they do the worst possible thing and bloody draw, so they still go through and knacker us up. GAH!

Now for Germany to tank the North. That'd be nice.

[Metrostars]

Or Turkey to beat or draw the Czech Republic would be sufficient as well.

[Stuttgart88]

Yeah, but I want this to be determined asap.

The Germans are angry after criticism from Ballack. The false 9 didn't work against Poland so Muller and/or Gomez may be given a more orthodox role.

[legendz]

There's a strong possibility if we get through, we'll take on France on Sunday with the winner taking on the winner of the England game.

[Stuttgart88]

I'd bite your hand off for that right now.

[Morbo]

I've enjoyed watching Portugal in the tournament so far. I think they have played some of the best football. Just because they've drawn the first two games, it doesn't mean they won't click into some form in the knockout stages if they get that far.

They are nice to watch but they are underachieving choke artists, always have been, went out in the group stage 2 years ago, couldn't win the final in their own backyard against Greece. Maybe if they got to the knockouts they might play well for a game or 2 but they won't win it.

[Stuttgart88]

For a team of such talent and technical ability Portugal have rarely ever had really good striker in the modern era. Figo and Ronaldo both were/are reliable goalscorers but from attacking midfield or wider positions but I can only remember Nuno Gomez and Pauleta as traditional central strikers and while they were both OK, neither pulled up any trees.

Portugal have always struggled for goals a bit. They can't line up against a back 5 of Forde, Kelly, Keogh, Duffy and McClean every game!

[davidatrb]

There's a strong possibility if we get through, we'll take on France on Sunday with the winner taking on the winner of the England game.

Winner A (France) plays third E if third place team are from following groups
ABEF
BCEF
BDEF

Winner D (Spain or Croatia) plays third E if third place is from groups
ABCE - unlikely Albania A will hold on with 3 pts and poor gd
ABDE - unlikely, same reason
BCDE
CDEF - almost impossible that Slovakia B won't make it

So the most likely way we qualify and avoid France and potentially England is BCDE. So a good result for NI and Czech. And Portugal/Iceland then have to sort it out so that 3rd finishes on 3 points or less. So hope they don't both win I think. In other words we need to sweat to the last minute before we know if a win against Italy will do. Then we would have Spain/Croatia in round of 16 and Switzerland/runner up C(Germany/Poland/n ireland) in quarter....

So if results go our way then we could have Croatia next round and n. Ireland in quarter and suddenly we are in the semi! Possible, not likely.

Bookie seems to think BCDF will be magic groups. Or BCEF most likely of combinations that Ireland will still be involved.

[Real ale Madrid]

So lets say things go badly for us over the next 30 hours.....

Northern Ireland hold out against Germany.
The Czech Republic beat Turkey.
Austria beat Iceland and Portugal beat Hungary.

If Austria beat Iceland by 1-0 or 2-1 - we will need to beat Italy by 2 goals to go through on goals scored.
If Austria beat Iceland by 2 goals we will need to win by 3 goals.

I'm not even sure why I shared that. But FYI etc.

[pineapple stu]

I guess the big advantage we have is that we're last group to finish, so we'll know what we need.

Though realistically, all we'll know is whether a win will be enough or not, I would say.

Poor Albania have to hang around for a couple of days not knowing if they're through or not - they probably aren't, but they'd be looking at our group for starters as one they could finish ahead of.

[paul_oshea]

Why are ye bothering with any of this lads? no point at all.

[Metrostars]

Why are ye bothering with any of this lads? no point at all.

https://cdn.meme.am/instances/30169950.jpg

[Real ale Madrid]

Why are ye bothering with any of this lads? no point at all.

Why are you not bothering with it?

[paul_oshea]

Exactly. Doesn't mean I amn't going to go out and go the game, but I wouldn't bother wasting my energy going through these permutations but maybe thats the thing of this forum. Time to waste, to waste time.

[BonnieShels]

Why are ye bothering with any of this lads? no point at all.

Why do you even bother? For a man who dwells in such a world of realism it seems strange to me that you ever watch Ireland or Mayo games at all? Now that's just silly.

[Real ale Madrid]

Top 5 things I like.

1. Club Co-efficients
2. Bonus points
3. The Away goals rule
4. 24 team football tournaments
5. Fantasy football.