Free Bet Strategies

[davidatrb]

Can I share some tips and strategies here? I've done pretty good this month on working free bets. I know no after eventing but I only saw this forum today.

There is a bookie giving free €10 bet for staking €20. This promo will run for the euro playoff games tomorrow and plenty more games before the end of the month. I Have a no risk and low risk strategy for this promo.

Low risk: http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2015/05/free-bets-review.html
No risk: http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2015/08/paid-by-paddy.html

The same bookie is putting up crazy enhanced odds as well this month. They had Ireland at 6/1 today, I know it wasn't a winner but still good odds (best I heard was 4/1).

http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2015/11/has-paddypower-lost-their-mind.html

I think it's the real deal. Working both these promos (and something on the horses) since May on a deposit of €20 and my balance is tipping €1000. So either I'm lucky, or there is something in these strategies. Judge for yourself, and have a browse on my blog.

I hope this post is the appropriate tone and the appropriate forum.

[davidatrb]

To follow up on this, lets see how I get on today. I'm nervous to post this in case I look stupid and make a monumental loss! I've never betted so much money in one day in my life. But I've been doing well so far on these strategies so lets see. Obviously with gambling you can't win every day so don't jump on me if I lose here today, but my good days outnumber my bad days.

I am earning free bets on Punchestown, Cheltenham and Lingfield.

I am earning free bets on Russia vs Portugal, Ukraine vs Slovenia and Sweden vs Denmark.

And I am playing ALL the pricegasms!

Punchestown (everything 3/1 and less)

All €25 stakes.

Clonard Street @ 10/11
Gitana Du Berlais @ 8/1
Free Expression @5/4
Outlander @6/4
Guitar Pete @5/2
On his own @11/10
Quantitativeeasin @2/1
Beau Mome @4/7
Avenir Dune Vie @6/4
De Plotting Shed @5/2

Cheltenham(everything 3/1 and less)

All €25 stakes.

Romain De Senam @6/4
Oceane @9/4
Un Temps Pour Tout @10/11


Lingfield(everything 3/1 and less)

All €25 stakes.

Race Day @10/11
Battle Pride @ 7/4
Brasted @3/1
Fast Sprite @2/1
Revolutionist @ 2/1
Polybius @ 5/2
Lets Go @ 2/1

Total on horses: 20 bets * €25 = €500

Now I'm not pretending to be an expert on horses so I don't expect to win on the real bets. But betting on favourites and good chances - so dont expect to lose too much - I'll be happy with 10% loss or €50.

A lot of these horses will finish second and I am earning a free bet on each one - generally 22% of the time I'll get a free bet - so €500*22%= €110 in free bets.

€110 is not real money, so convert to real money by betting on horses, I like @9/2, 5/1 about with any free bets and I estimate to win 70% of the €110 back in real money = €77.

Total bet: €500
Real Money loss: €50
Free Money Profit: €77

Total Profit = €27

A lot of work for a small profit, but its not really that much work - no research, no studying form, just scan through the races and tap on anything 3/1 and less. The 10% loss on real money bets and 70% conversion from free money to real money are conservative estimates. So usually can make more depending on other offers like Best odds Guranteed.

[davidatrb]

I bet total €20 in singles on each of these - to earn two €5 in-play bets in each match. So betting €60 total today for €30 free. Real money on low risk as allowed. And free bets on 7/1.

Ukraine vs Slovenia

All €4 stakes.
Ukraine to score first @ 4/7
Ukraine to be winning HT or FT @ 8/15
Draw at 30 mins @ 8/15
1st half over 0.5 @ 8/15
Under 2.5 goals @ 1/2

Sweden vs Denmark

All €4 stakes.
Sweden no 1st half goals @ 8/15
Denmark and Draw @ 8/15
Denmark to score @ 1/2
Draw at 30 mins @ 1/2

Russia vs Portugal

All €4 stakes.
Russia no goals 1st half @ 4/7
1st half over 0.5 @ 8/15
Portugal and Draw @ 8/15
Draw at 30 mins @ 1/2
Under 2.5 goals @ 1/2

Again expect a small loss (10%) on real bets and to convert 70% of free money into real money.

Total on Football: €60
Expected Real Loss: €6
Expected Free Profit: €21

Expected Total Profit: €15

[davidatrb]

Finally the pricegasm on paddypower. 8 today so far €20 on each:

Leinster Ulster and Munster all to win @ 2/1
Nani any time scorer @ 5/1
Sheff Utd and Bradford @ 4/1
Lewis & MVG Darts @ 2/1

Borus Brooks @ 3/1
Un temps pour tout @ 4/1
Bollin Ace @ 3/1
Call to Order @5/2

So there is a total of €160. And Im estimating winning 33% on these pricegasm enhanced odds.

Estimated profit here: €52.

So total today I am hoping for between the three strategies is 27 + 15 + 52 = €94 profit today.

I'll post my free bet selections as I get them. And then post a summary of results for each strategy. Nervous.

[centre mid]

you'll have your account closed fairly sharpish for bonus abuse

[davidatrb]

Does that happen? Its been since May and mine is still open. I know 888sport have barred me from their promotions, but paddypower seem to be a little more forgiving. Skybet, betfair and betway have also let me win modest amounts on their promotions without closing me down.

I can only classify myself as a recreational gambler...

Anyway, so far today has been a bit of a blowout but earned a free bet there.

Im backing Dromnea @ 5/1 for €25 FREE.

[davidatrb]

Another free bet.

Im going for Mindurownbusiness @ 9/2 in Lingfield.

[davidatrb]

Two more free bets

Herbert Park @ 4/1
Leave at Dawn @ 5/1

Two market favs in Cheltenham 15:35

[davidatrb]

Two more free bets, winning too many free bets and not enough money so far

Copper Kay @ 4/1
Snaglist @ 9/2 - [edit not sure why they gave me a free bet here, i wont count this one - double edit I see what this was now, it was one of the pricegasm horses finished 2nd at Cheltenham so can count this after all.]

[davidatrb]

Another Free bet.

Champagne Express @ 9/2 [edit: this free bet was for another bet promotion that I didn't post earlier- not counting this then]

[davidatrb]

Back to the football.

It's half time in Russia vs Portugal. I have two free €5 bets.

Score draw @ 6/1
Russia by exactly 2 @ 8/1

[davidatrb]

Another free bet going on Tabugalou now at 11/2.

[davidatrb]

So that is all my horses ran.

It's okay - small profit - not great.


Punchestown (everything 3/1 and less)

All €25 stakes.

Clonard Street @ 10/11 --- lost
Gitana Du Berlais @ 8/11 - lost
Free Expression @5/4 ---- free bet (Leave at Dawn - win €125)
Outlander @6/4 ---- €68.75 payout
Guitar Pete @5/2 -------- lost
On his own @11/10 -------- lost
Quantitativeeasin @2/1 --- €93.75 payout (includes Best Odds Guaranteed bonus)
Beau Mome @4/7 ----------- lost
Avenir Dune Vie @6/4 ----- lost
De Plotting Shed @5/2 ---- free bet (Tabougalou - lost)

Cheltenham(everything 3/1 and less)

All €25 stakes.

Romain De Senam @6/4 ------ lost
Oceane @9/4 ------ lost
Un Temps Pour Tout @10/11 -- free bet (Dromnea - free bet Snag List - lost)


Lingfield(everything 3/1 and less)

All €25 stakes.

Race Day @10/11 --- €47.73 payout
Battle Pride @ 7/4 --- lost
Brasted @3/1 --------- free bet (Mindurownbusiness win €125)
Fast Sprite @2/1 ---- free bet (Herbert Park - lost)
Revolutionist @ 2/1 -- lost
Polybius @ 5/2 ------- lost
Lets Go @ 2/1 -------- €75 payout



Total Spent: €500
Total won back: €285.23 + 6 freebets
Free won: €250
Profit: €35.23

[davidatrb]

Half time in Ukraine.

I've put my two free €5 bets on:

Ukraine by 3 @ 6/1
Score draw @ 5/1

[davidatrb]

I notice I left out Over 1.5 goals for Sweden vs Denmark @ 1/2. Need this to make the €20 stake for the free bets. Match hasn't started yet so hope nobody minds me correcting this now.

[davidatrb]

Leinster and Munster all to win @ 1/1 -- Finishes tomorrow.
Nani any time scorer @ 5/1 ------------- lost
Sheff Utd and Bradford @ 4/1 ----------- lost
Lewis & MVG Darts @ 2/1 ---------------- lost

Borus Brooks @ 3/1 ----------- €80 payout
Un temps pour tout @ 4/1 ----- freebet (Copper Kay - won €80)
Bollin Ace @ 3/1 ------------- lost
Call to Order @5/2 ----------- lost

Broke even on the pricegasms, only because they gave me a free bet for Un Temp Pour Tout, which I wasnt expecting. Still have Leinster to play tomorrow. Ulster game was cancelled so the rugby was downgraded to 1/1 for Leinster and Munster.

Disappointed with this.

[davidatrb]

Half time in Sweden.

Two more free €5 bets...

Exactly 3 goals for Sweden @ 6/1
Exactly 2 goals for Denmark @ 7/1

And I'm done!

[davidatrb]

Ukraine vs Slovenia

All €4 stakes.
Ukraine to score first @ 4/7 ---------- €6.29 payout
Ukraine to be winning HT or FT @ 8/15 -- €6.13 payout
Draw at 30 mins @ 8/15 ----------------- lost
1st half over 0.5 @ 8/15 --------------- €6.13 payout
Under 2.5 goals @ 1/2 ------------------ €6.00 payout

Ukraine to score 3 ------------ lost
Score Draw -------------------- lost

Sweden vs Denmark

All €4 stakes.
Sweden no 1st half goals @ 8/15 ---- lost
Denmark and Draw @ 8/15 ------------ lost
Denmark to score @ 1/2 ------------- €6.00 payout
Draw at 30 mins @ 1/2 -------------- €6.00 payout
Over 1.5 goals @ 1/2 --------------- €6.00 payout

Sweden to score 3 -------------- lost
Denmark to score 2 ------------- lost

Russia vs Portugal

All €4 stakes.
Russia no goals 1st half @ 4/7 ----- €6.29 payout
1st half over 0.5 @ 8/15 ----------- lost
Portugal and Draw @ 8/15 ----------- lost
Draw at 30 mins @ 1/2 -------------- €6.00 payout
Under 2.5 goals @ 1/2 -------------- €6.00 payout

Russia by 2 @ 8/1 ------------------ lost
Score Draaw @ 6/1 ------------------ lost

So I just broke even here, well a tiny profit. But came pretty close on some of my free bets.

[davidatrb]

Anyway total profit of only about €35 - all on horses while breaking even on the other strategies.

And haven't been barred for bonus abuse. I don't think Paddy are worried about small profits like that.

End of experiment - hope someone found it a little interesting.

[Real ale Madrid]

How did you select the horses to back? The only comment I would make is that just because a horse at 10/11 is available at 3/1 that doesn't nessecarily make it a good value bet. That's obviously a judgement call for you but, I'd be very wary about backing all the enhanced prices blind just because you can get better odds. In fact it seems that you have done much better with the free bets , as you probably judged who you felt was going to win the race at the price instead of just backing a horse because you thought you were getting a good deal!

Well done on making a profit anyhow . €35 is as good in your pocket as anyone else's!

[davidatrb]

I picked all horses 3/1 and shorter for real money. And for free bets I tried to pick 4/1 or 5/1 and preferably where I already had the favourites covered off in the same race with my real bets.

Thanks. I'm doing okay on promos, been able to withdraw €100 per month from paddy since May. Disappointed it didn't really show in the results today.

They have huge promos since the start of November. I'm up a few hundred in the couple of weeks in November.

I agree with your comment I'm sure the bookie can carefully select the under priced odds and only boost them.

[davidatrb]

Did anyone follow my horses free bet strategy today? Because I made a little fortune today. (Yes I know nobody will believe me - I floundered yesterday when I was open with all my bets and today I didnt bother posting all the tips up front).

But just check the winners in Punchestown, Cheltenham and Fontwell. So many 3/1 and shorter.

I am afraid my winnings today might raise some red flags with paddy power.

Im up €300 today with still some open bets.

I know this isnt proof.

This was my balance at close of the day yesterday €800 and some.
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This is my balance now €1200.
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I built my balance up from just a €20 deposit last May - selectively playing paddy power promotions...

[davidatrb]

2349

List of my winners today above.

The full strategy explained on my blog:

http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2015/08/paddy-power-money-back-on-horses.html

Okay, I'll stop being smug now ...

[bennocelt]

Good job, will try and follow when I have A) time, and B) money...............:D

[tricky_colour]

you'll have your account closed fairly sharpish for bonus abuse


What is bonus abuse?
How is he abusing it?
They give him a free bets and he he uses it, isn't that what is supposed to happen?

[davidatrb]

What is bonus abuse?
How is he abusing it?
They give him a free bets and he he uses it, isn't that what is supposed to happen?

I don't see it as Bonus abuse. But I can see how they could. There are sites like Profit Accumulator that can engineer your bets and (ab)use the promos so you win either way (matched betting). It's not gambling. It's not what I am doing but pretty close.

I've been barred from promotions by 888sport and betway. Paddy power maybe have let me alone because I have an account there for a long long time and sometimes have played their poker too. Will hill and sky bet have let me alone as well, I'm up a few hundred on both of them. I have a couple of thousand profit on paddypower promos since April. They have no good promos at the moment though.

These are the reasons that I have been barred from others:

http://fog2014.blogspot.ca/2015/11/no-thanks-betway.html

http://fog2014.blogspot.ca/2015/07/the-bookies-dont-want-you-to-know-this.html

So betway gave no reason and 888sport want to protect their recreational customers.

[davidatrb]

Booo.

Paddy Power barred me from the Bet 20 get 10 promotion.

The strategy here is to bet 20 pre match on something safe - look for odds about 1/2, 8/15 something like that. I usually used to split my 20 across a number of different safe bets.

Then with my free bets I would find something that would pay back enough money - look for something like 7/1.

You will break even on your real bets and every now and again win nicely on your free bet. (About €35 every 8 matches).

I won enough money off them that way. Totalled over 2000 profit off a 20 deposit on Paddy so far since April 2015.

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Paddy are offering this again for all live tv premier league games, read the terms and conditions.