Euro 2016 Play-Offs - November 13th and 16th

[Littlest Hobo]

At the moment we will be un-seeded for the play-offs draw. Some of the other games would need to finish the following way, if we are to be seeded;

Turkey v Iceland (Draw)

Cyprus v Bosnia (Home win)

Malta v Croatia (Away win)

Italy v Norway (Home win or draw)

If all of these 4 results come in, regardless of what happens elsewhere, then we would be seeded. The draw would then look like this.

Seeded
Ukraine (assuming Slovakia win away to Luxembourg and Ukraine don't beat Spain at home).
Sweden (assuming Sweden and Russia both win their last games).
Denmark
Republic of Ireland

Un-Seeded
Norway
Turkey
Slovenia
Cyprus

Wouldn't fancy Turkey. But we could take the others over two legs.

[tricky_colour]

This seems mind blowingly complicated!!

[Littlest Hobo]

Yeah tricky, its the situation we find ourselves in... we need a cascade of certain results to occur for us to be in the seeded pot. And the four above are highly probable.
But then football is a funny old game and anything can happen!

[tricky_colour]

Highly probably or improbable?
Individually the last two might be quite probably but the others look like 2-1 shots.

Anyway if win lose and draw are equally probably you have 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 2/3 = 2/81 =~ 1/40

So even if some result are more likely than the bare maths we will be looking at 1 in a fairly big number ie 1 in 10+

So I think we should work on the basis we will not be seeded.

[davidatrb]

Highly probably or improbable?
Individually the last two might be quite probably but the others look like 2-1 shots.

Anyway if win lose and draw are equally probably you have 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 2/3 = 2/81 =~ 1/40

So even if some result are more likely than the bare maths we will be looking at 1 in a fairly big number ie 1 in 10+

So I think we should work on the basis we will not be seeded.

I built the relevant accumulator on paddy power. They are paying out €18.59 for a €1 stake. So about 17/1 or 6% chance of happening.

So within the realms of possibility but unlikely.

[davidatrb]

At the moment we will be un-seeded for the play-offs draw. Some of the other games would need to finish the following way, if we are to be seeded;

Turkey v Iceland (Draw)



Or if Netherlands fail to beat Czech then a loss for Turkey is also acceptable.




Cyprus v Bosnia (Home win)

Malta v Croatia (Away win)

Italy v Norway (Home win or draw)

If all of these 4 results come in, regardless of what happens elsewhere, then we would be seeded. The draw would then look like this.

Seeded
Ukraine (assuming Slovakia win away to Luxembourg and Ukraine don't beat Spain at home).
Sweden (assuming Sweden and Russia both win their last games).
Denmark
Republic of Ireland

Un-Seeded
Norway
Turkey
Slovenia
Cyprus

Wouldn't fancy Turkey. But we could take the others over two legs.

[IsMiseSean]

I wouldn't mind Sweden from a footballing point of view. I reckon they've gone backwards since our last meetings with them.
Travel wise I wouldn't fancy it again...

[zero]

i had assumed it's the case that the unseeded team would be home first - but perhaps not. from

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/finals/news/newsid=2262387.html

"Those eight teams will be divided into two groups of seeded and non-seeded teams, based on the UEFA national team coefficient rankings (see the latest here). Each fixture will see a seeded team play against a non-seeded team, with the first team drawn to play the first leg at home."

[jbyrne]

i had assumed it's the case that the unseeded team would be home first - but perhaps not. from

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/finals/news/newsid=2262387.html

"Those eight teams will be divided into two groups of seeded and non-seeded teams, based on the UEFA national team coefficient rankings (see the latest here). Each fixture will see a seeded team play against a non-seeded team, with the first team drawn to play the first leg at home."

maybe they will draw the unseeded team first each time

[zero]

maybe they will draw the unseeded team first each time

yes - it's ambiguous. probably deliberately so, such that they can make the decision that best suits...

[Nugget]

Clutching at straws here, but would I be right in thinking that if Luxembourg somehow get a result against Slovakia, Slovakia could slip to 3rd and be seeded below us?

[davidatrb]

Clutching at straws here, but would I be right in thinking that if Luxembourg somehow get a result against Slovakia, Slovakia could slip to 3rd and be seeded below us?

Yes I think so. Slovakia just lost at home vs Belarus so on the slide a little and should be totally behind us in uefa coefficient.

Is it clear that the point deduction for Croatia will apply to their ranking as best 3rd place team? The results against bottom team is discarded but do points deductions apply? The point deduction was due to an incident against Italy if that matters..

[triggsrevenge]

I'd take a pop at any of these teams, I would argue that we have had the toughest group of all, and managed a third place spot. So we've nothing to fear from teams that could only manage third in a weaker group.

[nigel-harps1954]

Hate to burst the optimism bubble, but Cyprus won't beat Bosnia.

[Fizzer]

You're probably right but Cyprus have already beaten them in Bosnia

[Real ale Madrid]

Hate to burst the optimism bubble, but Cyprus won't beat Bosnia.

I would have said the same before the first match between the sides in qualifying. Cyprus only lost to Wales and Belgium with a goal in each game in the last ten mins, it's certainly not a done deal by any means. A win for Cyprus and they are in the playoff unless Israel beat Belgium.

[zero]

I would have said the same before the first match between the sides in qualifying. Cyprus only lost to Wales and Belgium with a goal in each game in the last ten mins, it's certainly not a done deal by any means. A win for Cyprus and they are in the playoff unless Israel beat Belgium.

bosnia have only picked up 4 points on the road - 3 of those from andorra. lost heavily in israel (3-0), lost 3-1 to belgium but did pick up a 0-0 in wales.

it wouldn't be the end of the world to draw them as seeds in the playoffs, especially if we were away first...

[back of the net]

Sweden and Russia both 2-0 up in their respective games .....55 mins gone in both


Sweden will be in Playoffs and Russia qualify automatically (provided they avoid defeat)

[Cymro]

bosnia have only picked up 4 points on the road - 3 of those from andorra. lost heavily in israel (3-0), lost 3-1 to belgium but did pick up a 0-0 in wales.

it wouldn't be the end of the world to draw them as seeds in the playoffs, especially if we were away first...

I think in the away game in Israel Bosnia had a number of injuries and had to play players out of position. That isn't a good marker for how they will perform tomorrow night.

Bosnia are heavy favourites but Cyprus and Israel both have realistic chances, bearing in mind Belgium have already qualified.

I hope Israel draw with Belgium, Cyprus beat Bosnia and we beat Andorra.....leaving us to top the group. :D

[tricky_colour]

So how are things going from Ireland's perspective?
Bit to complicated for me to have a clue atm.
However Russia getting second is good I assume as they are ranked higher.

[DannyInvincible]

We're hoping for a Ukraine victory over Spain, right? That would ensure Ukraine go through as best third-placed finisher (assuming Slovakia in that group beat Luxembourg) and consign Hungary (who are ranked below us) to the play-offs.

Ukraine have made a strong start. Are Spain playing a second-string or is this their full-strength team?

[jbyrne]

Ukraine have made a strong start. Are Spain playing a second-string or is this their full-strength team?

sky commentary saying its a weakened spain side

[zero]

spain one up. questionable defending but a good goal.

edit: and now spain have a pen. but they miss it...

[DannyInvincible]

Saved. Remains 0-1.

[davidatrb]

We're hoping for a Ukraine victory over Spain, right? That would ensure Ukraine go through as best third-placed finisher (assuming Slovakia in that group beat Luxembourg) and consign Hungary (who are ranked below us) to the play-offs.

Ukraine have made a strong start. Are Spain playing a second-string or is this their full-strength team?


No I read that this morning and don't think it's right. Hungary will have more coefficient points according to football seeding.com. Which is unofficial but looks to be on the button. The official coefficient hasn't been updated since sept. The advantage in Ukraine winning for Ireland is that they will qualify automatically and we won't have to meet them. Hungary would be a nice draw for us.

[back of the net]

Saved. Remains 0-1.

Ukranian fans shining a laser pen in Fabregas's eyes and face as he prepares to take the penalty.....utter assh%les

[zero]

seems the commentators on sky aren't aware that a ukraine win would very likely give them best 3rd place. they have said ukraine are DOOMED to a playoff now given slovakia are 3-0 up in luxembourg.

[TrapAPony]

So then it's very very likely to be one of Denmark, Sweden, Ukraine or Bosnia for us.

[geysir]

The Ukrainian goalie
http://shakhtar.com/data/imgdata/foto/news/183363__max_news.jpg



reminds me of




Jens Lehman
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/SPORT/Pix/pictures/2011/12/8/1323339607981/Jens-Lehmann-007.jpg


maybe it's the curls.

[davidatrb]

Luxembourg making a comeback.

[geysir]

Lux are on a comeback from the dead v Slovakia. now 2-3 and their blood is up.

[zero]

ukraine lose, slovakia win. despite the loss ukraine looked pretty strong - would be a horrible draw for us.

[geysir]

Slovakia finish 2nd, Ukraine into the playoffs.
Ukraine aren't what they use to be, no Voronin these days.

[davidatrb]

2333

Starting to look clear. Currently seeds are Ukraine, Sweden, Croatia and Bosnia with Denmark likely to be promoted to seed if Croatia seal automatic qualification tomorrow (they need a favour from Italy which looks likely).

We are next in line for promotion if anything funny happens between Cyprus, Israel and Bosnia. But Turkey could take that chance away from us for themselves with a win against Iceland or hand our chance to Netherlands with a loss.

[davidatrb]

despite the loss ukraine looked pretty strong - would be a horrible draw for us.



Ukraine aren't what they use to be, no Voronin these days.

Who to believe :)

[zero]

Who to believe :)

well they are the highest ranked 3rd place team in the co-efficients we've been poring over the past few days...

[Littlest Hobo]

we need the 4 results I mentioned at the beginning to come in and we're seeded.

[geysir]

Who to believe :)
That would depend on how you rate Voronin.

[davidatrb]

Yes or a turkey defeat works too if Netherlands don't take advantage.

[eekers]

I don't think the rankings are factoring in the extra points Platini give us with the Euro 2012 award.

[Closed Account 2]

seems the commentators on sky aren't aware that a ukraine win would very likely give them best 3rd place. they have said ukraine are DOOMED to a playoff now given slovakia are 3-0 up in luxembourg.

they were pretty clueless, they spent a good 2-3 mins wondering why Mourinho would be at a Ukraine v Spain game, "when Costa was never likely to feature" - they obviously didn't realise that Chelsea's next CL game is against Dinamo Kiev.

[tricky_colour]

http://foot.ie/attachment.php?attachmentid=2333&stc=1

Starting to look clear. Currently seeds are Ukraine, Sweden, Croatia and Bosnia with Denmark likely to be promoted to seed if Croatia seal automatic qualification tomorrow (they need a favour from Italy which looks likely).

We are next in line for promotion if anything funny happens between Cyprus, Israel and Bosnia. But Turkey could take that chance away from us for themselves with a win against Iceland or hand our chance to Netherlands with a loss.

Looks like a question from a maths A level exam paper that you know you are gonna get zero marks for!! ;)

[tricky_colour]

Isn't penalties a very likely option? Ie like a 1-0 win v Germany and 2-1 defeat to Poland giving a 2-2 draw?

In that situation would we qualify on away goals?

On the betting one bookie has it a a coin flip (5/6 v 5/6) for qualification, another goes 5/4 yes 4/7 no, another 1/1 yes 8/11 no.

But they also went 6-1 and 7-1 to beat Germany so not a great guide.

[DannyInvincible]

I don't think the rankings are factoring in the extra points Platini give us with the Euro 2012 award.

What's this about? The award for our support? I assume you're joking...?

[ArdeeBhoy]

Nah. Let's just say that play-off draw then, was pre-destined, as some recompense for Paris...

[TheBoss]

At the moment we will be un-seeded for the play-offs draw. Some of the other games would need to finish the following way, if we are to be seeded;

Turkey v Iceland (Draw)

Cyprus v Bosnia (Home win)

Malta v Croatia (Away win)

Italy v Norway (Home win or draw)

If all of these 4 results come in, regardless of what happens elsewhere, then we would be seeded.

Turkey v Iceland (Draw) - It will either be a draw or Turkey win but feel latter will just happen, 40% Chance
Cyprus v Bosnia (Home win) - Possible but think a draw is more likely, 35% Chance
Malta v Croatia (Away win) - A certain banker, 98% Chance
Italy v Norway (Home win or draw) - Highly likely, 75% Chance

[geysir]

Ukraine Sweden Denmark are already in the play off draw and seeded ahead of us
Slovenia are in the play off draw and unseeded.

Afaiu, we need 2 of these three outcomes to happen in order that we take the 4th seeded spot.

Norway to finish third
Turkey draw
Bosnia to commit suicide + Israel to get a result in Belgium



There is still a live chance that Turkey can secure the best 3rd spot with space to spare, therefore they will be all out for victory.

[back of the net]

Ukraine Sweden Denmark are already in the play off draw and seeded ahead of us
Slovenia are in the play off draw and unseeded.

Afaiu, we need 2 of these three outcomes to happen in order that we take the 4th seeded spot.

Norway to finish third
Turkey draw
Bosnia to commit suicide + Israel to get a result in Belgium



There is still a live chance that Turkey can secure the best 3rd spot with space to spare, therefore they will be all out for victory.
From rte.ie


Ireland will be banking on a series of results to fall their way in tonight’s Euro 2016 qualifiers that could result in Martin O’Neill’s men being seeded for the play-off draw in Nyon next Sunday.
If Norway fail to beat Italy, Croatia overcome Malta, Bosnia lose to Cyprus and Turkey draw with Iceland the knock-on effect on the coefficent rankings system will elevate Ireland to seeded status and give them a very welcome boost ahead of the draw.

[geysir]

So we need a hat-trick not a brace :) we would need all three group outcomes to go our way. And only one of them (Norway) has a reasonable favoured chance to happen.

[back of the net]

So we need a hat-trick not a brace :) we would need all three group outcomes to go our way. And only one of them (Norway) has a reasonable favoured chance to happen.


Well cyprus beat Bosnia in bosnia....so it gives us some hope that something can happen there


Add in if Cyprus win they have a massive chance to qualify for the playoffs