The Promotion Steeplechase

[SeanDMRooney]

1 Wexford P21 Pts 43 Maximum of 21 left

Games Remaining; Waterford, Cobh, UCD, UCD, Athlone, Shelbourne and Harps

2 Finn Harps P22 Pts 41 Maximum of 18 left

Games Remaining; Cabinteely, Waterford, Cobh, UCD, Athlone and Wexford

3 UCD P20 Pts 39 Maximum of 24 points left

Games Remaining; Athlone, Shelbourne, Athlone, Wexford, Wexford ,Harps, Cabinteely and Waterford

4 Shelbourne P22 Pts 35 Maximum of 18 points left

Games Remaining; UCD, Cabinteely, Athlone, Waterford, Wexford and Cobh

Its all set up for an interesting run in for promotion in the First Division and I suspect it will go right down to the wire. I included Shels here despite the fact that they are basically mathematically eliminated being a full 2 games back with 6 to play and an almost insurmountable goal difference but stranger things have happened like Limerick winning 3 on the bounce. Right now I dont think I could tell you with an great degree of certainty who will win as we seen last night the whole complexion can change in two minutes

[nigel-harps1954]

The biggest games of the lot left are the two Wexford v UCD games in a row. Two draws there would tighten everything up and would almost certainly go down to the last games of the season.

[brendy_éire]

Would fancy Wexford to see this through, with UCD second.
Still waiting for Harps annual collapse.

Would Harps or UCD fancy themselves in the playoff though? Historically, it's been difficult for Firs Division sides to get promoted down that route.

Odds:
Wexford 5/6
UCD 2/1
Harps 5/1

[pineapple stu]

Depends who's in the play-off really - are they a team on the up (like Limerick would have to be) or a team on the down?

This'll come back to bite me I'm sure, but I'm struggling to see who'll beat us between now and the end of the season. We've stepped up another gear since the European campaign (bar maybe Harps at home when we were still a bit tired). Unbeaten in 16; we had been giving away too many draws, but it's four wins in a row now. Best defence in the league and (along with Furlong) the best attack. Wexford beat us early in the season but we hammered them in the Bowl. Agree the two UCD v Wexford games in a week will be crucial.

Though I'd like to see Wexford come up one way or the other. Interesting to see if a season in the Premier would help them grow any.

[MattB11]

Unfortunately I think it'll be UCD and I'd predict Youths to get the better of us in a play off our record against UCD and Wexford this year has been poor 1 win in 6.

[nigel-harps1954]

Would fancy Wexford to see this through, with UCD second.
Still waiting for Harps annual collapse.

Would Harps or UCD fancy themselves in the playoff though? Historically, it's been difficult for Firs Division sides to get promoted down that route.

Odds:
Wexford 5/6
UCD 2/1
Harps 5/1


Think we've already seen our collapse. June/July and August haven't been good for us by any stretch of the imagination. Only won 3 games from 12 from end of may until before Shelbourne game.

I think we'll surge on from here though. We need to start scoring goals though.

Honestly, I think UCD will win the league, but it could go right down to the last day and the Harps v Wexford game last game of the season could go a way to deciding where the title goes.

In our favour though, our last six games fall fairly well for us with both UCD and Wexford at home.

It's going to be exciting either way.

[Charlie Darwin]

Would fancy Wexford to see this through, with UCD second.
Having seen both play a few times, UCD are both the better side and the deeper squad. Only way Wexford win the league is if UCD collapse, in my opinion.

[ger121]

UCD playing teams of a higher standard made them up their game during those fixtures. I think they've brought that standard back into the League games which will see them finish top. Would like to see Wexford Youths come up for a new away day option but if UCD come back up then would have no complaints. Jesus those European performances must be clouding my opinion of the students😮

[Charlie Darwin]

UCD were terrific even before the European games, to be fair. Something like 20 games unbeaten in the league now? And their second-string could compete in the FD too.

[Sam_Heggy]

If UCD had Furlong they'd have won the league weeks ago. Best side in the league bar imo.

Wexford are poor enough overall but Furlongs goals are dragging them through. They will always feel like they can out score any side which is a huge psychological boost.

Harps goalscoring is our major downfall, defence (apart from a few games) has been solid.

Having UCD and Wexford travel to Finn Park within the last 3 games of the season should be interesting. If we're still in the chase at that point then I wouldn't completely rule us out, but it is a long shot at this stage.

[SeanDMRooney]

UCD look like they could possible hand the impetus back to Wexford if they lose the Athlone game this evening currently 1 down

[pineapple stu]

Oh ye of little faith. :)

Five wins in a row now; 17 unbeaten in the league.

Shels away next, but each hurdle we overcome makes those two Wexford games all the bigger.

[SeanDMRooney]

So UCD falter and Wexford grind out another win
with Wexfords vastly superior goal difference they are essentially 3 points clear
Do Harps need UCD to beat Wexford in the game in hand to be able to be in with a shout of the league ?

[joey B]

Wexford must be massive favourites for the league after tonight,UCDs next 4 games are Athlone (A),Wexford (A),Wexford (H) and Harps (A) as hard a run as it could be they'll be doing very well to come out on top after those but who knows ,Id fancy UCD to beat Wexford at least once but they'll probably have to win both to have a chance at the league,I wouldn't rule us out just yet but we do have a habit of throwing away points which will probably count us out!

[SeanDMRooney]

Seems to be game over now with Wexford to be automatically promoted with the lineup for the playoffs basically set unless Shels can produce a masterclass to unseat Harps or UCD

[nigel-harps1954]

Play-offs are by no means guaranteed for either Harps or UCD now. Harps draw with Waterford didn't help matters, and UCD have had a poor run of results recently. Wexford aren't guaranteed anything, but it's hard to see them being caught. Still all to play for between Harps, UCD and Shelbourne though.

[pineapple stu]

Wexford have won the league. And congrats to them; the goal last night was a proper promotion-sealer. 30-yard rocket into the wind and the top corner.

Shame the weather impacted on the game - even though both sides played commendably well given the conditions, I'd have liked to see how we'd have done on a normal day.

We have to make sure we stay ahead of Shels now.

Not entirely sure why we've dropped off so badly the last three games - throwing the ball into the net twice didn't help of course - but maybe it's just a case of our usual problem where we're much better suited to restricting better teams and not so much suited to having to win every week.

Still, not over for us yet.

[gufcfan]

I notice that Danny Furlong in the league this year, when he has scored, has been more likely to score another than just finish with the one goal.

/useless info

[nigel-harps1954]

We can all but congratulate Wexford Youths on their promotion at this stage. A Harps win tomorrow night would see them 7 points clear with three games left. Incredibly unlikely to be caught now.

Looking like a Wexford, Harps, UCD finish now with Shelbourne blowing a great chance to go one point behind UCD tonight.

Play-offs will be interesting.

[Mr A]

Shels could still catch UCD, and UCD could very easily finish ahead of Harps.

[pineapple stu]

Shels have really blown it the last couple of weeks - draw with Cabo and a loss to Athlone. Two wins and they'd be third.

No idea what's happened us the last month. Though at least we played ok tonight.

Wexford deserved league winners though; congrats to them.

[El-Pietro]

Hopefully Wexford can win it on the pitch. I've always wondered how fans would deal with winning promotion based on a game they aren't playing in. Cork City may not have won much over the year but when we do win, we do it in style, nothing but the last day victory will do it for us!

[NeverFeltBetter]

Happened to Limerick only a few years ago, just went mad for the following nights game.

Fair dues to Wexford, will be interesting to see how they get on in the top tier. Hopefully won't be too much of a leap for them, how is the club financially?

[pineapple stu]

A related topic is the relegation steeplechase btw.

Looking more like Harps v UCD in the play-offs - though not confirmed, as Mr A notes. But if we beat the bottom two teams, Shels can't catch us.

The winners play - who? It could be any of the bottom seven really. Bray look solid enough not to get dragged back down into things, unless the Cup semi distracts them (happened us in 2007 - we were safe and then collapsed; only avoided the play-offs because of Longford's points deduction)

Derry might get new manager boost and survive. Sligo and Limerick are the form teams and I can't see both in the bottom two by the end. Then there's Longford, Galway and Drogheda.

I think the FD's best hope is Drogheda, their recent win in Derry aside (which was their first win since June). But they could still freefall straight past the play-offs.

Galway v UCD could be interesting too - I don't remember it happening before that the play-off final was a repeat of the previous year's?

In the next week, Bray v Limerick and Sligo v Bray are the only matches involving teams in the bottom seven. So a result for anyone elsewhere has to be seen as a bonus.

[SeanDMRooney]

A related topic is the relegation steeplechase btw.

Looking more like Harps v UCD in the play-offs - though not confirmed, as Mr A notes. But if we beat the bottom two teams, Shels can't catch us.

The winners play - who? It could be any of the bottom seven really. Bray look solid enough not to get dragged back down into things, unless the Cup semi distracts them (happened us in 2007 - we were safe and then collapsed; only avoided the play-offs because of Longford's points deduction)

Derry might get new manager boost and survive. Sligo and Limerick are the form teams and I can't see both in the bottom two by the end. Then there's Longford, Galway and Drogheda.

I think the FD's best hope is Drogheda, their recent win in Derry aside (which was their first win since June). But they could still freefall straight past the play-offs.

Galway v UCD could be interesting too - I don't remember it happening before that the play-off final was a repeat of the previous year's?

In the next week, Bray v Limerick and Sligo v Bray are the only matches involving teams in the bottom seven. So a result for anyone elsewhere has to be seen as a bonus.

Relegation is actually more interesting now seeing as the lineup is all but set for the First Division
Another year in the graveyard is criminal for Shels

[EAFC_rdfl]

A lot of change from comments on page 1 of this thread!

[ForzaHoop]

If Harps beat UCD on Friday they will cement there place in the play off's

[Mr A]

We'll secure 2nd if we win. Already we're 9 points ahead of Shels with a better goal difference. UCD have Waterford and Cabinteely in the last two games so should secure at least third.

[jinxy lilywhite]

Hopefully Wexford can win it on the pitch. I've always wondered how fans would deal with winning promotion based on a game they aren't playing in. Cork City may not have won much over the year but when we do win, we do it in style, nothing but the last day victory will do it for us!

Tbh I don't really think it matters. Leagues, relegations and promotions are decided over the course of a season and not on the final day of the season.

[dundalkfc10]

Tbh I don't really think it matters. Leagues, relegations and promotions are decided over the course of a season and not on the final day of the season.

Of course it matters.

You really want us to wrap up the league with Cork losing/drawing some night we are not playing or wrap it up when we are playing.

If we win tomorrow, and Cork drop points either tonight or in their next game, we can win it in Tallaght. How good would that be :o

Good luck to the Wexford lads tonight, enjoy it! Kildare away was one of the best nights of my life a few years back

[SeanDMRooney]

So with Harps and UCD confirmed for Friday the 23rd/30th the focus now shifts to who people think will be the Premier Divisions contribution to the Playoffs
I think neither Harps nor UCD would want to see the surging Limerick be in the playoffs.
Harps - Sligo would be a big draw and as strange as a consideration as that is it is one. Also would be cheap travel

[nigel-harps1954]

So with Harps and UCD confirmed for Friday the 23rd/30th the focus now shifts to who people think will be the Premier Divisions contribution to the Playoffs
I think neither Harps nor UCD would want to see the surging Limerick be in the playoffs.
Harps - Sligo would be a big draw and as strange as a consideration as that is it is one. Also would be cheap travel

Speak for yourself.

Personally, without getting too far ahead of ourselves, I'd like to potentially avoid seeing Sligo in the play-off.

Going to look firmly at UCD first though. They've the ability to really blow Harps out of the water yet and their form of recent is no indication of how they'll perform in the playoff.

Big interest from Harps though in travelling down to Dublin, could well be 250+ Harps fans down for the game in Belfield, which should be fun.