Predictions for remaining Group D games [Archive]

Littlest Hobo

29/03/2015, 11:40 PM

After that one all with Poland and our much improved 2nd half performance, I still think we're in with a shout of qualifying from this group.

Here are my predictions for the remaining games;

JUNE
Poland 3pts (home v Georgia)
Rep of Ire 3pts (home v Scotland)
Germany 3pts (away v Gibraltar)

SEP
Scotland 3pts (away v Georgia)
Germany 3pts (home v Poland)
Rep of Ire 3pts (away v Gibraltar)

Poland 3pts (home v Gibraltar)
Rep of Ire 3pts (home v Georgia)
Germany 3pts (away v Scotland)

OCT
Germany 3pts (away v Rep of Ire)
Scotland 1pt (home v Poland)
Poland 1pt (away v Scotland)

Germany 3pts (home v Georgia)
Scotland 3pts (away v Gibraltar)
Poland 1pt (home v Rep of Ire)
Rep of Ire 1pt (away v Poland)

FINAL TABLE
Germany 25pts
Poland 19pts
Rep of Ire 18pts
Scotland 17pts

TrapAPony

30/03/2015, 12:03 AM

Prediction is that we will draw with Scotland & lose to Poland & Germany and not qualify in the end.

Fergie's Son

30/03/2015, 12:06 AM

Basically we have to beat Scotland. End of story.

swinfordfc

30/03/2015, 3:02 PM

We have to beat Scotland in June - thats for sure but i think Scotland will draw in Georgia ......

elroy

30/03/2015, 8:58 PM

Agree, I think Scotland could find Georgia tricky. It would be typical Ireland to draw with Scotland but then to be thrown a lifeline by Scotland slipping up in Georgia.

I think we must beat Scotland at home. If we dont then we deserve nothing. Simple as that really. If we beat Scotland, then it is very conceivable that we get 9 points out of 9 leaving us with 17 points going into the final two games. It could be a case of winner takes all then against Poland. Its hard to be overly confident but for now we cant look beyond the Scottish game.

DeLorean

31/03/2015, 9:28 AM

I think Scotland probably have enough about them to grind it out in Georgia but we could test their new found confidence if we beat them. Getting extremely greedy now but we could probably do with bettering their 1-0 win against us also, or at least replicating it. The group is so tight it's very possible that we could finish on the same amount of points. Needless to say I'd take any sort of win though.

Stuttgart88

31/03/2015, 10:36 AM

Win first, win by two next.

Bungle

31/03/2015, 11:43 AM

It's hard to make predictions because it doesn't feel right saying Ireland will have a bad result. What I do think is that Ireland, Scotland and Poland are broadly similar in terms of ability - the Poles have the most quality in terms of personnel, with Ireland and Scotland having probably the better team spirit.

Anyhow here goes:
Ireland 2 Scotland 1
Ireland 2 Georgia 1
Gibraltar 0 Ireland 5
Ireland 0 Germany 4
Poland 1 Ireland 1

I still think Georgia could play a part in this group, be it by drawing/beating Scotland at home or by drawing with Poland in Warsaw. Unfortunately, I wouldn't be too shocked if they drew with us in Dublin, though I do expect us to have a little too much for them. The Germans will comfortably beat Scotland and Poland also.

I was looking at the likely third placed teams in the other groups. There's a few menacing looking teams but equally a few very mediocre teams as well. I'm guessing for us to be the best third placed team and avoid the playoff we would need something special like beating Germany or Poland.

jbyrne

31/03/2015, 12:03 PM

this wont help our cause if it happens...
http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/international/2015/0331/691099-georgia-fear-closed-doors-scotland-clash/

Littlest Hobo

31/03/2015, 12:46 PM

Prediction is that we will draw with Scotland & lose to Poland & Germany and not qualify in the end.

Quite a disappointing post mate. Was expecting something more positive.
I've just watched the game again and we played some great stuff. I've also watched Scotlands 6-1 win and they were pretty ordinary considering they had their strongest team. I'm gaining in confidence we'll win in June.

paul_oshea

31/03/2015, 12:54 PM

It's too late in the day now for Georgia to bother about getting a draw against Scotland. It's a pity but its a thing I've always emphasised on here. Luckily for us though we just about squeezed a win out of Georgia.

It's down to us lads at this stage, us and no one else.

Metrostars

31/03/2015, 12:58 PM

Ireland missed their chances against Scotland(draw) and Poland(win) already so we are unlikely to qualify at this stage.

Best we can hope for is to be still in with a chance for the final game needing a win in Poland to qualify.

Poland 3pts (home v Georgia)
Rep of Ire 1pt,Scotland 1pt (home v Scotland)
Germany 3pts (away v Gibraltar)

Scotland 3pts (away v Georgia)
Germany 3pts (home v Poland)
Rep of Ire 3pts (away v Gibraltar)

Poland 3pts (home v Gibraltar)
Rep of Ire 3pts (home v Georgia)
Germany 3pts (away v Scotland)

Germany 1pt Ireland 1pt (away v Rep of Ire)
Ireland 1pt (home v Germany)
Scotland 1pt (home v Poland)
Poland 1pt (away v Scotland)

Germany 3pts (home v Georgia)
Scotland 3pts (away v Gibraltar)
Rep of Ire 3pts (away v Poland) Heart say Ireland win, head says poland

Germany 23
Ireland 19
Poland 18
Scotland 18

Real ale Madrid

31/03/2015, 1:32 PM

Hard to predict what is going to happen next week let alone from June onwards but here is my take on what’s going to happen for the craic.

Currently:
Poland 11
Scotland 10
Germany 10
Ireland 8

JUNE
Poland 3pts (home v Georgia)
Rep of Ire 1pt (home v Scotland)
Germany 3pts (away v Gibraltar)
Scotland 1pt (away to Ire)

Poland and Germany win.
We draw with Scotland, either we go a goal down early and go all out for the draw or we get an early goal and retreat further and further…..

Poland 14
Germany 13
Scotland 11
Rep of Ire 9

SEP
Scotland 3pts (away v Georgia)
Germany 3pts (home v Poland)
Rep of Ire 3pts (away v Gibraltar)

Germany are stuck right in a battle so they beat Poland at home.
Scotland scrape past Georgia and Robbie Keane gets a double hat trick against The Island Rock.

Germany 16
Poland 14
Scotland 14
Ireland 12

Poland 3pts (home v Gibraltar)
Rep of Ire 3pts (home v Georgia)
Germany 3pts (away v Scotland)

Germany have their tails up now and beat Scotland in Hampden but not without a battle .
Keano is dropped for the Georgia game and Shane Long scores twice. The debate rages on.
Poland score 10 against the British Overseas territory.

Germany 19
Poland 17
Ireland 15
Scotland 14

OCT
Germany 1pt (away v Rep of Ire)
Scotland 1pt (home v Poland)
Poland 1pt (away v Scotland)
Ireland 1pt (home to Germany)

Germany know they only need 1 win to secure qualification and with a home game to come later in the week against Georgia, are happy not to take too many risks in Dublin 0-0
Scotland / Poland is very cagey with no-one wanting to make a mistake. Scotland also know that they have Gibraltar in the last game and with Ireland away to Poland – they know a draw virtually guarantees a play-off spot. 0-0

Germany 20
Poland 18
Ireland 16
Scotland 15

Germany v Georgia
Scotland v Gibraltar
Poland v Rep of Ireland

So what happens next is anyone’s guess - Germany and Scotland are guaranteed to win.
A draw is enough for Poland. With Scotland in the play-off. However if Poland lose they are also out, given the tie-breaker with the scots has the scots through on away goals.
There would be no play-off in this scenario for Ireland – win and we are through – lose or draw and we are out, given our inability to defend leads over the past few years – not the worst scenario to be in.

paul_oshea

31/03/2015, 1:50 PM

Given our inability to defend leads but score late goals? Our big win away from home due? Beating a team seeded higher than us in a must win clash away from home?

That's fairytale stuff, real fairytale stuff - its never going to happen. It would be some party though, nice to dream.

I do think the outcome until the last group game above is very likely though. A campaign that pitters out a bit like Kerrs.

Real ale Madrid

31/03/2015, 1:56 PM

That's fairytale stuff, real fairytale stuff - its never going to happen.

I do think the outcome until the last group game above is very likely though. .

Thanks for clarifying?

paul_oshea

31/03/2015, 2:16 PM

The must win game in poland, last group game, against a direct competitor for the one position, winner takes all, we will not win it, what i meant was all the other results leading up to that game are all very likely.

Real ale Madrid

31/03/2015, 2:20 PM

Stuttgart88

31/03/2015, 2:34 PM

I think England exposed Scotland's weaknesses and I expect a highly professional German outfit to do the same. Germany realise they have work to do in this group and Scotland, Poland and ourselves exploited a post WC hangover / complacency. That'll be gone in the autumn. The Poland result keeps us in it and it's still very tight. As usual we have kicked the can down the road and "need a good back 9" to make it up the leaderboard. I fancy we can do better than Scotland against Germany, I think we can beat Scotland, and Poland away is anyone's guess. Georgia away is not a shoo in for Scotland but I think they'll sneak it.

paul_oshea

31/03/2015, 2:45 PM

I think Germany will be far more aware of our ability to score a last minute goal and will control proceedings towards the end. I also have a feeling that Strachan might change things around again, certainly we wont see 3 at the back for them again...I think they will get a draw at home to Germany.

jbyrne

31/03/2015, 2:50 PM

I think Germany will be far more aware of our ability to score a last minute goal and will control proceedings towards the end

well, they didn't learn the lesson of the last min Ibaraki goal did they? maybe third time lucky

sorry, fourth time lucky.... Keoghs goal in 2012

Charlie Darwin

01/04/2015, 5:10 PM

well, they didn't learn the lesson of the last min Ibaraki goal did they? maybe third time lucky

sorry, fourth time lucky.... Keoghs goal in 2012
I wonder if the Germans have a phrase: "Never write off the Irish." Probably not actually. "Pixieheads."

SwanVsDalton

01/04/2015, 7:26 PM

I wonder if the Germans have a phrase: "Never write off the Irish."

More likely it's "never underwrite the Irish".

nigel-harps1954

01/04/2015, 7:36 PM

Eminence Grise

01/04/2015, 8:56 PM

More likely it's "never underwrite the Irish".

That's one of those posts that make me wish I wore a hat so I could doff it in your direction.

Stuttgart88

01/04/2015, 9:19 PM

I usually reserve that accolade for you your eminence. Can we just cancel the April POTM award and give it to SVD now?

Stuttgart88

01/04/2015, 9:25 PM

Draw with Poland and Scotland and lose to Germany. Beat Georgia and Gibraltar but miss out on play-offs.

Final table:

Germany 23 pts
Poland 19 pts
Scotland 19 pts
Ireland 16 pts
Georgia 6 pts
Gibraltar 0 ptsif your maths is correct, it just goes to show you how much there is still to play for. Do sh1t and still only lose out by one good result out of 5, ok realistically 3, games. That's the context for the jubilation after a very late equaliser.

DeLorean

01/04/2015, 9:58 PM

Yeah a win against Scotland and we'll more than likely be joint second by the time Germany come to Dublin in the penultimate round of games. Poland go to Hampden that evening so whatever happens there we'll definitely be in the mix come the final game. It's even possible we could be guaranteed at least third after losing to Germany and going to Poland with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Obviously a lot of football to be played between now and then but once we beat Scotland we really are going to be very hard to catch for third at least. Just effing beat Scotland!!

nigel-harps1954

01/04/2015, 10:37 PM

if your maths is correct, it just goes to show you how much there is still to play for. Do sh1t and still only lose out by one good result out of 5, ok realistically 3, games. That's the context for the jubilation after a very late equaliser.

Simply worked out realistic outcomes of each of the rest of the games in the group and that was the result. My maths is excellent thank you very much ;)

Crosby87

01/04/2015, 11:15 PM

[QUOTE=DeLorean;1812042]Yeah a win against Scotland and we'll more than likely be joint second by the time Germany come to Dublin in the penultimate round of games./QUOTE]

Penultimate. Great word. Good scrabble word.

geysir

02/04/2015, 1:16 PM

nigel-harps1954

02/04/2015, 1:30 PM

It's quite simple really, Ireland need to beat all of Poland, Scotland, Georgia and Gibraltar. A draw with Germany would potentially see Ireland top the group after that......but obviously, none of this will happen.

DeLorean

02/04/2015, 2:09 PM

Poland beat Geo,Gib,Irl but lose to Germany and Scotland = 19 points

Scotland beat Geo Gib and Poland but lose to Germany and draw with ireland 20 points

Ireland beat Geo, Gib draw with Scotland but lose to Germany and Poland 16 points

Even if Ireland were to beat Scotland, then Scotland would still take the 3rd spot. Only if Scotland collapse totally will we finish ahead of them.
Also in that case where we would beat Scotland, we would then face a very determined Polish team out for 2nd spot, would certainly nail us in Warsaw, with McClean getting sent off after 10 minutes.

It's grim.

I would look at it from a more positive angle but we simply have to beat Scotland or I'll join yourself and AB down in Doomsday Land. If we do win that, which we clearly can, then...

-We'll beat Gibraltar and Georgia and have decent monentum
-Scotland will be under severe pressure to win in Tblisi with their confidence dented
-Poland, having already lost in Germany, will be desperate for a result in Edinburgh. Could easily be another draw but any result brings it's own advantages/disadvantages
-We can get something in Poland. I think, as a footballing nation, they tend to be fairly flimsy when the pressure is on and they look pretty average in any case. It's also possible that a draw will do them to secure second and a draw will do us to secure third.

We really need to just beat Scotland and take it from there.

paul_oshea

02/04/2015, 3:05 PM

if your maths is correct, it just goes to show you how much there is still to play for. Do sh1t and still only lose out by one good result out of 5, ok realistically 3, games. That's the context for the jubilation after a very late equaliser.

Stutts you're still not looking in from the context of experience, ability and previous results. We don't win these big games its as simple as that, if we did, then yes of course everything would be rosey in the garden. It's all about context.

DeLorean

02/04/2015, 3:22 PM

And what context of experience do Scotland have from the recent past? Maybe you should look at that instead.

Why is the Armenia game just ignored completely in relation to these contexts of experience? We played them in a winner takes all (i.e. gets a playoff place) game at the end of the 2012 qualifying? Granted they're not a recognised force in European football but neither are Scotland. Armenia were after putting eight past Slovakia (away) and Macedonia in their previous two games and were a fellow contender in the group. We beat them, therefore winning a vital game that we needed a result in.

geysir

02/04/2015, 4:27 PM

It wasn't the game against the inexperienced Armenia which mattered most, it was that miraculous day when we came away with a point in Moscow and later that evening watched Armenia unexpectedly roast Slovakia. After that day's results, we were full of confidence that we would do the rest. 'We' meaning the more knowledgeable football fans :)

I know permutations exist atm, but I don't need to construct a distant hope out of the permutations in order to deal with the reality of our poor situation in the group.
I feel similar to when we lost to France Eur 2008, I felt really disappointed and that our chance was all but lost, but it didn't mean I wasn't glued to the watching the last game.

DeLorean

02/04/2015, 5:04 PM

Doesn't matter... we beat a direct rival in the group in a vital match. If loose stats/records are going to be thrown about, they should at least be accurate.

You say "our poor situation in the group". Fair enough if you see it that way and obviously it could, and should, be better, but until we fail to beat Scotland I don't see them as being in any better a situation really. They've won their home match against us so that's job done as far as they're concerned which we have yet to do, but our bonus point in Germany means that we can win back pole position in the battle for third at least. That'd be a good start but obviously it's going to be a tough ask to win back pole position for second from the Poles, who you'd almost forget are in pole position in the group full stop. Damn those Poles, it's almost as if they feel a natural entitlement to pole position.

Stuttgart88

02/04/2015, 6:28 PM

Paul, if you were told at any point in the last 12 months "beat Scotland in Dublin to secure a play off", would you have taken it? I would, all day long. 2012 was an anomaly, qualifying without a good home win (point taken about Armenia though). My point above was simple enough and not requiring context. In Nigel's scenario we missed out by one result despite not actually getting any really good results. Just one better than usual result will probably do.

If we beat Scotland at home I'd be genuinely surprised if we don't get third. I wouldn't bet on us beating Scotland but I wouldn't be fearing them either.

geysir

02/04/2015, 7:18 PM

Doesn't matter... we beat a direct rival in the group in a vital match. If loose stats/records are going to be thrown about, they should at least be accurate.
That's a blatantly false accusation and a poor attempt to throw a shoddy insult in my direction, back that one up or else it's pistols at dawn :)

DeLorean

02/04/2015, 7:43 PM

It was actually in Paul's direction really, in response to "we don't win these big games it's as simple as that", which you kind of backed up. I know the Armenia game sounds like a bit of a stretch but it's surely relevant when we're discussing the possibility of beating the 4th seeds in our group. Pistols at dawn sounds awesome! The Optimists v The Pessimists, we just need to find a realist to referree!

Eminence Grise

02/04/2015, 9:16 PM

I usually reserve that accolade for you your eminence. Can we just resurrect the April POTM award and give it to SVD now?

I agree (with a slight amendment)!

geysir

02/04/2015, 10:21 PM

It was actually in Paul's direction really, in response to "we don't win these big games it's as simple as that", which you kind of backed up.!

I didn't in my sweet árse back anything Roscommon man wrote
....... kind of! :)

I know the Armenia game sounds like a bit of a stretch but it's surely relevant when we're discussing the possibility of beating the 4th seeds in our group
I directly gave my opinion on the relevance.

Pistols at dawn sounds awesome! The Optimists v The Pessimists, we just need to find a realist to referree!
If I was really a pessimist, don't you think I would have played the "I'm not a pessimist, I'm a realist" card by now?
And we duellists have 'seconds', not referees.

DeLorean

02/04/2015, 11:36 PM

I directly gave my opinion on the relevance.

But I don't really get the relevance of your opinion :p

geysir

03/04/2015, 12:08 PM

But I don't really get the relevance of your opinion :p
That's okay then,
but now that you are starting to learn to differentiate between an opinion and a fact, is a good sign.

DeLorean

03/04/2015, 12:17 PM

I'm going to regret this... but when was I unable to differentiate between an opinion and a fact?

geysir

03/04/2015, 1:11 PM

I'm going to regret this... but when was I unable to differentiate between an opinion and a fact?
When you replied to my opinion piece.

Doesn't matter... we beat a direct rival in the group in a vital match. If loose stats/records are going to be thrown about, they should at least be accurate. (http://foot.ie/threads/199477-Predictions-for-remaiing-Group-D-games?p=1812201&viewfull=1#post1812201)

DeLorean

03/04/2015, 1:56 PM

geysir

03/04/2015, 6:09 PM

Oh right... but your opinion piece didn't change the fact that the Armenia game was a crucial one against a direct group rival. Whether one considers the Moscow game more important or not doesn't really matter in the context of the point I was making. Fair enough if you were only throwing it in as an aside, I presumed you were questioning the credibility of the Armenia game counting as a vital game that we won. Or am I totally missing the point?

Yes, sadly you are missing the point. I was only expressing an opinion. I was not in any way, shape or form, presenting stats or records, never mind inaccurate facts or stats.
I never alluded to that the game was not important, I was confident that we would beat them. Just because I was confident didn't mean it was a mickey mouse game against a mickey mouse team.
As of yet, you still haven't demonstrated the capacity to tell the difference between the opinion and a fact. And I had such high hopes there for a brief moment in time, possibly I was just overwhelmed by my abundant positivity about the human kind and their capacity to learn :)

Stuttgart88

03/04/2015, 6:35 PM

Jeeps Geysir, what's eating you these days? You're even picking quarrels with the sensible guys.

DeLorean

03/04/2015, 7:20 PM

Yes, sadly you are missing the point. I was only expressing an opinion. I was not in any way, shape or form, presenting stats or records, never mind inaccurate facts or stats.

I never said you did... In fact, I explained that was a response POS and those who have said that we haven't beaten a direct group rival in however long. Fair enough if your point about the Moscow game was completely unrelated to the point I was making. Don't know how I missed that. Okey-doke, we'll leave it there so...