First Division Betting 2015 [Archive]

nigel-harps1954

06/02/2015, 9:47 AM

ybig

06/02/2015, 10:35 AM

Athlone 10/3 looks decent to me. Shelbourne are after losing Dylan Connolly

Dodge

06/02/2015, 10:48 AM

I think everyone knew he was going to Ipswich the last few months so that's not a loss. Tough market to price up because they're guessing on squad make up for most of them

outspoken

06/02/2015, 10:54 AM

Wexford the same price as Athlone? That's laughbale. Athlone will win the first division with a bit to spare this season in my opinion, Theyve hardly reduced the budget from the premier and have managed to keep one of the leagues great poachers in gorman. Shels to finish 2nd with the final play off place wide open between Wexford, UCD and maybe even Cobh who could be surprises packs this year.

nigel-harps1954

06/02/2015, 12:04 PM

Wexford won't be far off at all in my opinion. They'll push all the way this year. Cobh will certainly be a great deal stronger than last season.

Has all the makings of a very close division right from top to bottom this year. Wouldn't discount Harps either at all, strengthened a bit from last season the addition of this French lad and Garbhan Friel from Cockhill up front may help matters too.

paykanti

06/02/2015, 1:16 PM

Agree with the Athlone bandwagon. Shels to run them close.

GitYerKorna

06/02/2015, 3:48 PM

JC_GUFC

06/02/2015, 7:02 PM

Pretty much impossible to price this. Shels, although losing Connolly and Desmond have kept most of the rest of last season's squad and Kevin Doherty in for Johnny Mc will make little difference.

Wexford have a good continuity from last season and weren't flattered by last year's finish.

Athlone should definitely be competitive but their squad has changed a fair bit since last season. I wouldn't get too carried away with a 4-1 friendly win over Cork who were playing their 3rd match in less than 24 hours!

UCD are a total unknown. Their LSL team has been decent the last few years and I expect a few to "graduate" to LoI.

I don't see the rest putting in a sustained challenge. Harps and Waterford faded badly last season and though Cobh have clearly strengthened it may not be enough.

Cabinteely? Anyone's guess!!

gufc2000

06/02/2015, 8:12 PM

Should be an interesting Division.

I'd expect Athlone and Shels to head up the pack, but Wexford to be closely behind them. If Finn Harps can score more goals this year and keep their discipline in more games, they'll be a hard side to beat as well. The draws and lack of discipline cost them a lot of points last year.

UCD are pretty much unknowns.

From the outside looking in, Cobh seem to be much better prepared and have added some decent players. They could upset a few teams. Waterford are relying on a lot of locals and probably be lower mid-table again. Too early to comment on Cabinteely!

ATFC-1887

07/02/2015, 12:05 AM

By all accounts Athlone were well organised against Cork last week. The Rovers friendly tonight should provide some additional insights.
I see them being well short of Div 1 Champions unless they strengthen the squad with some real experience.
On a separate not has Ian Sweeney left the club? He showed some potential last year when played.
To be fair we probably have as much experience as anyone in the division. Cusack, Shortall, Aido Collins, Philly Hand, Derek Doyle, Purdy, Philly Gorman, Coughlan and a few others with plenty of experience. I reckon we will be fine

Martinho II

07/02/2015, 4:08 PM

[QUOTE=JC_GUFC;1803553

Athlone should definitely be competitive but their squad has changed a fair bit since last season. I wouldn't get too carried away with a 4-1 friendly win over Cork who were playing their 3rd match in less than 24 hours!

[/QUOTE]

was it not the local roscommon league side that beat Cork? maybe I am wrong!

ATFC-1887

07/02/2015, 7:00 PM

was it not the local roscommon league side that beat Cork? maybe I am wrong!
No they lost 4-1 to cork. We beat cork 4-1 the next day

Pablo Escobar

09/02/2015, 8:40 AM

No they lost 4-1 to cork. We beat cork 4-1 the next day

We also played Finn Harps on the morning of that game and the team that played Harps only arrived at Lissywoolen just before half-time. Having said that, Athlone do look a very good side.

nigel-harps1954

12/04/2015, 11:10 PM

Paddypower released their odds for the First Division this season:

Shelbourne 7/4
Athlone 10/3
Wexford 10/3
UCD 10/3
Waterford 20/1
Cobh Ramblers 25/1
Finn Harps 25/1
Cabinteely FC 40/1

Couple of very interesting ones there.

Interesting to note the changes in odds already:

Wexford Youths: 2/1
Athlone Town: 11/4
Shelbourne: 7/2
Finn Harps: 9/2
UCD: 6/1
Waterford: 50/1
Cobh Ramblers: 100/1
Cabinteely: 100/1

ATFC-1887

12/04/2015, 11:17 PM

2254

Boyles still have us as favourites.

total hoofball

13/04/2015, 12:52 PM

I've seen all the title contenders in the first round of matches and Wexford were definitely the most impressive of the lot but I think it will be very tight come the end of the season between Wexford, Athlone, UCD and Harps. Shels won't trouble the top 4 they look particularly abysmal.

nigel-harps1954

13/04/2015, 1:18 PM

Only teams I've not seen so far are Wexford and Waterford and I have to say, despite where they are in the table, UCD are the team that have impressed me most.

Shelbourne look like they're lacking around 2 or 3 players, but will probably still be there or there about at the end of the season.

Athlone looked tired and unfit against Harps.

Cabinteely and Cobh were pretty poor.

Harps really haven't got out of second gear yet. We've not performed for a full 90 minutes yet, but look physically strong and fit which has got us over the line so far. It's as good a side as I've seen though since our last promotion season, which bodes well.

ATFC-1887

14/04/2015, 2:04 AM

Yeh Harps definitely looked sharp against us. Thought we were very unlucky not to take the lead in the first half, but we created nothing in the 2nd. Hopefully we can get back on track with 5 of our next 7 at home.

ybig

14/04/2015, 9:26 PM

Leinster Senior league match betting now on bet365..firhouse clover v wayside..firhouse decent price at 2/1..longer than pp

whitehall

17/04/2015, 11:59 AM

Been to the Shels v Wexford and the Shels v Athlone games and I haven't been overly impressed with Shels in either. In saying that Athlone and Wexford were both very good on the nights. I'd expect both to be there or there abouts at the end of the season.

Gareth Coughlan in and out of the Shels team seems a bit baffling. Was impressed with Danny Furlong for Wexford, watched him a few years ago at Cork and he didn't seem up to it but looks a handful at Wexford.

Sam_Heggy

20/04/2015, 6:06 PM

PP latest odds:

Wexford 11/4
Harps 3/1
Athlone 7/2
UCD 4/1
Shels 9/2
Waterford 50/1
Cobh 50/1
Cabinteely 100/1

Some big swings from the 1st set of odds

ForzaForth

20/04/2015, 7:39 PM

Thanks, Sam

It's hard to understand how we're still in front of Harps in the betting. Stephen Hunt must be going to sign for the Youths in the summer or something.

ATFC-1887

22/04/2015, 1:53 AM

2257
Even stranger that boyles still have us as favourites

nigel-harps1954

22/04/2015, 9:04 AM

Bet365 is even stranger yet with Athlone and Shels still predicted 1st and 2nd.

Athlone 5/2
Shels 11/4
Wexford 9/4
Harps 5/1
UCD 8/1
Waterford 50/1
Cabinteely 250/1
Cobh 500/1

I'd love to throw a fiver on Cobh now for the craic, but I'm not that brave to throw away the cost of a pint.

Dodge

22/04/2015, 9:37 AM

Bet365 is even stranger yet with Athlone and Shels still predicted 1st and 2nd.

Betting odds aren't predictive. They're just tools to make maximum money for the company (at the lowest possible risk).

nigel-harps1954

22/04/2015, 9:45 AM

Betting odds aren't predictive. They're just tools to make maximum money for the company (at the lowest possible risk).

Okay, okay...favourites then. Jeesh..

Dodge

22/04/2015, 10:01 AM

Okay, okay...favourites then. Jeesh..

Jeesh, all you like, it's an important distinction.

paykanti

23/04/2015, 1:09 PM

The two aren't mutually exclusive. If the odds don't reflect the probability of the event, the bookie won't make any money so yes, they are predictive to a very significant degree.

Dodge

23/04/2015, 1:46 PM

The two aren't mutually exclusive. If the odds don't reflect the probability of the event, the bookie won't make any money so yes, they are predictive to a very significant degree.

They're not predictive at all. You can use it as an indicator if you like but they're not predictive.

Ezeikial

23/04/2015, 4:13 PM

What is the correct spelling of pedant, please?

Sam_Heggy

23/04/2015, 10:29 PM

Bookies will keep odds out a bit on Harps to draw in a few quid on them hoping they will drift off for one of the "favourites" to overtake them in the business end of the league.

They'd be plain silly to make Harps evens for example so early in the season.

Either way, at least Ollie and the lads are doing something right to be cut from 25/1 to 3/1.

eL Bettor

24/04/2015, 1:09 PM

Anyone who thinks the bookies are giving a whole lot of thought or strategy to pricing up the first division is wrong.
It's not going to attract money based on name or sentiment in the way the EPL or Champions League might.
And the bookies odds do in general reflect the predictions made by their models. I doubt bet 365 are sitting on a massive loss on any team which they are trying to hedge by offering odds that don't reflect their predicted outcome. I say this as someone who has worked in the industry.