Big Bad Bears - Russia and Putin

[mark12345]

I asked some friends yesterday about whether there will be an impact in the Balkans as this could further embolden Serbia (a strong ally of Russia's and to whom they have been funneling arms) to strike for their own expansion gains in Kosovo, along the B&H border and possibly even the Croatian border (far less likely I suppose given their EU and NATO status). This would tally with the increase in tension and nationalist sentiments observed there recently and particularly in relation to B&H. It doesnt seem to be seen as a legitimate risk currently but I am very interested to see how it plays out.

Regarding the Baltic states, they have every right to be worried and it remains to be seen if it makes sense for Putin to go there. That would be a game changer as they are NATO members and it would likely force some sort of military response. Maybe not straight away for Putin but if China doubles down on their alliance with Russia and even make a push for Taiwan, then i think that gives Putin the green light to do whatever the f**k he wants.

A lot of interesting points Stu. Didn't know that about Serbia. You are right on the money about China though. They are standing on the sidelines watching all of this. I expect Taiwan to fall before the summer is out. We are living in a very different world now.

[John83]

... You are right on the money about China though. They are standing on the sidelines watching all of this. I expect Taiwan to fall before the summer is out. We are living in a very different world now.
I don't agree. If things had gone differently for Russia, maybe, but I think China will most likely continue boiling the frog with Taiwan for now.

[Crosby87]

Yes I don't think china likes what they see....the whole world is united pretty much...I mean can you imagine if they kill Zellinsky??!! He will be a martyr of martyrs.

[joey B]

Today feels like a real defining moment of this conflict with Russia’s annexation of 4 different regions of Ukraine,none of which they completely control and are on the backfoot in some areas..
Feels like the risk of something truly terrible happening because of this war is at an all time high….

[dahamsta]

Agree with you 100%. Ukraine needs to be accepted into NATO ASAP, but of course that will raise tensions even further. At least, for the moment, it looks like Putin doesn't have the support - or indeed the weapons - that Hitler had. For the moment. However the rest of the nutty right-wing crap going on around the world is just as terrifying.

[CraftyToePoke]

How does this end for Prigozhin ?
He really is all in, every chip, car keys, house deeds the lot.

You'd assume he has backers inside / higher up to make this play.

[pineapple stu]

It is extraordinary really.

Putin is reported to have left Moscow today (though hard to be sure; the Kremlin seem to be denying it but FlightRadar picked it up), which would indicate he's worried at least.

But then what happens when Prigozhin gets there?

I suspect the Russian oligarchs are getting ****ed off not being able to siphon funds out of the country they way they used to, and even though a surprising amount of them seem to have very accidentally fallen out of a window in recent times (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_businesspeople_(2022% E2%80%932023)), it may be easier to quietly support Prizoghin than to take Putin on directly.

The Russians aren't any strangers to coups, but even if they topple Putin, there's huge changes needed there to get the KGB out of power and stop things from falling back into kleptocracy again. That'll be harder said than done.

It'll be interesting to see if any of the Russian republics like Kalmykia try move for independence while Russia is focussed on other things, or if there's a move to get South Ossetia/Abkhazia back under Georgia control.

[pineapple stu]

So he's turned around after Lukashenko brokered a deal.

That is quite literally the last thing I expected. His safety is guaranteed in the deal - but that means **** all in Russia. Yet we have to assume Prizhogin isn't a colossal moron either.

I've no idea what to make of all that

[joey B]

Prigozhin folded basically,he's been exiled to Belarus, some of his mercanaries have been integrated into the Russian armed forces and none of the top people in the Russian MOD have been removed,he'll live for now but hard to see Putin or his inner circle letting this just slide......

[samhaydenjr]

So he's turned around after Lukashenko brokered a deal.

That is quite literally the last thing I expected. His safety is guaranteed in the deal - but that means **** all in Russia. Yet we have to assume Prizhogin isn't a colossal moron either.

I've no idea what to make of all that

Yeah, it is difficult to figure out what is going on - and up to now I have had a voice in the back of my head saying that Prigozhin's pronouncements could all be a ruse, making Ukraine and the West think that there is division, just before the launch of a major offensive. Having gone this far, it seems that the cracks are real, but that voice is still saying "this could be a trap" - and that's down to this video from documentarian Adam Curtis that I saw on one of Charlie Brooker's shows years ago (around the time of the initial incursions into Ukraine)


https://youtu.be/3UstNBrmJFc


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[pineapple stu]

I can't see how it was a ruse given Putin had left Moscow. If it was in any way coordinated, Putin would want to come out of it with a public show of strength. But he hasn't.

And if Prigozhin has folded, why pardon him? That's bizarre. Any army legion now knows they can march on Moscow. That's no way of preventing future coups (which Putin has to want, given previous coup history there)

[joey B]

So Prigozhin didn’t even make it to September..his private plane shot out of the sky in Russia today….

[pineapple stu]

Crikey

Flying with him was surely taking your life into your own hands

A really bizarre episode overall

[Mr A]

Mafia state, anything can happen. Sooner it falls apart the better.

[seanfhear]

Mafia state, anything can happen. Sooner it falls apart the better.
A lot of them about.

[pineapple stu]

Wagner mercenaries threaten to march on Moscow (https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/wagner-group-threatens-putin-as-mercenaries-prepare-march-on-moscow-to-avenge-yevgeny-prigozhin/ar-AA1fI4SN?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=4b16de30b70c4b48973368c0d766f01e&ei=15) if it's confirmed Prigozhin is dead. Meanwhile, in a display of world-class scumbaggery, Putin has sent his condolences to Prigozhin's family on his death (https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2023/08/24/yevgeny-prigozhin-plane-crash-believed-to-have-killed-wagner-chief-viewed-as-revenge-by-putin/).

What a mental country.

[joey B]

I'd say Wagners chances of marching on Moscow are long over....

I've followed the conflict in Ukraine bascially since it started in 13/14 and if you are a figurehead on the Pro Russian side in Eastern Ukraine be it military or political you end up dead or in jail,either the Kremlin disposes of you or the Ukranians will have you assassinated,not a safe career choice!

[seanfhear]

Wagner mercenaries threaten to march on Moscow (https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/wagner-group-threatens-putin-as-mercenaries-prepare-march-on-moscow-to-avenge-yevgeny-prigozhin/ar-AA1fI4SN?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=4b16de30b70c4b48973368c0d766f01e&ei=15) if it's confirmed Prigozhin is dead. Meanwhile, in a display of world-class scumbaggery, Putin has sent his condolences to Prigozhin's family on his death (https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2023/08/24/yevgeny-prigozhin-plane-crash-believed-to-have-killed-wagner-chief-viewed-as-revenge-by-putin/).

What a mental country.America is pretty crazy as well.

[SkStu]

And we're just great craic!

[seanfhear]

And we're just great craic!
Better than Crack and Fentanyl anyway ~ Mind you, we have plenty of drug problems now as well.

[joey B]

1903237498266165725

It’s genuinely amazing how stupid some of the current American government is….

[CraftyToePoke]

1903237498266165725

It’s genuinely amazing how stupid some of the current American government is….

Turns out that was just some gentle stretching, a mere warm up.

[pineapple stu]

So yesterday Poland invoked Article 4 of NATO - the eighth time it's been invoked, and the seventh since 2010.

Since the Donald met with Putin recently, he seems to have been emboldened to really push the boundaries (if that's not an unfortunate turn of phrase), increasing its attacks in Kyiv, striking the Ukrainian government buildings, jamming Ursula von der Leyen's jet, and now launching a drone attack into Poland. Poland didn't exactly cover itself in glory, shooting down less than a third of the drones. Even Hungary has condemned the move, which surely brings us to the most dangerous state Europe has been in since Able Archer in 1983.

Meanwhile Putin was welcomed to an Asian conference of leaders as if nothing at all was wrong with that.

I do think European leaders have been asleep on the job lately, too focussed on economies and assuming everyone was finished with war and just wanted to be nice. It's not really clear how quickly we're going to be able to retreat from that standpoint - there's a lot of thoughts and prayers sent to Poland, but do we really have the stomach for a full scale war with Russia if it comes to it?