Euro 2016 Qualifying

[DannyInvincible]

I posted about this in the "Trap's replacement" thread (http://foot.ie/threads/157804-Trapattoni-who-would-you-replace-him-with?p=1709539#post1709539), but it's probably worth a thread for discussion of its own, especially with round 7 of a scrap over Darron Gibson and whataboutery about to get underway between SvD and Irwin over there! :p

GreenScene.me have just published this Euro 2016 qualifying seeding predictions list: http://greenscene.me/2013/09/euro-2016-qualifying-seeding-predictions/

It potentially sees us as the highest ranked team in the third pot based on World Cup 2010 results (weighted at 20 per cent of the ranking points total), Euro 2012 results (weighted at 40 per cent) and World Cup 2014 results (also weighted at 40 per cent). For some reason, I'd feared our current FIFA ranking within UEFA would play a more significant role in dictating our seeding. If our seeding was dependent on that, I'm pretty certain we'd have been in pot four.

Anyway, the draw for the qualification groups is set for the 23rd of February, 2014.

[NeverFeltBetter]

They haven't made any decision on the qualifying format correct? 23 places to fill. Can only assume the number of qualifying groups will be extended and the top two going in automatically.

Could see ten groups maybe. Top six third place teams play-off?

[DannyInvincible]

This was an earlier prediction made in June by Football-Rankings.info: http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/06/euro-2016-qualifying-draw-seeding-14.html

It also states:


The qualifying format (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/03/euro-2012-qualifying-format-update.html) is already known (but things will most likely change (http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/06/euro-2016-uefa-looking-to-change.html)): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

[NeverFeltBetter]

A five team group, only eight games, where more than half the teams could qualify? Would be interesting.

[SwanVsDalton]

Going by those Greenscene predictions: Greece, Hungary, Finland, Lithuania and Gibraltar would be the dream ticket for qualifying and travelling.


with round 7 of a scrap over Darron Gibson and whataboutery about to get underway between SvD and Irwin over there! :p

It went the distance, unfortunately for everyone. :bulgy:

[Charlie Darwin]

A trip to Gibraltar would be lovely. I'd say tickets would be hard to come by though.

[Kingdom]

Seeds1:
Avoid: Everyone!
Buy, Buy, Buy: Croatia, Greece

Seeds2: Really tough pool of teams.
Avoid: Belgium, Ukraine, France, Bosnia
Buy, Buy, Buy: Sweden, Serbia, Czech's, Hungary (not as weak as they seem)

Seeds4:
Avoid: Poland, Scotland,
Buy, Buy, Buy: Albania, Estonia, Latvia, Wales,

Seeds5: tough group of "weak" seeds:
Avoid: Belarus; Iceland (good youth teams coming through, and still on course to make playoffs); the North.
Buy, Buy, Buy: Azerbaijan, Moldova, Georgia

Seeds6:
Avoid: Cyprus - we just don't need to go there. Gibralter - They might be gash, but let someone else have them first time out.

best case scenario: Greece, Hungary, Estonia, Azerbaijan, San Marino - oooh!
worst case scenario: Spain, Belgium, Poland, Northern Ireland, Cyprus - ugh!

[ArdeeBhoy]

We could beat the bottom three, even in the 'worst case' scenario...

[SwanVsDalton]

We could beat the bottom three, even in the 'worst case' scenario...

Would hate to have to do it though. Sack any accusations of luck, I'll take a jammy draw any day especially with a new manager coming in.

[ArdeeBhoy]

We are due some major luck as we always seem to draw at least one really strong side and not just because they're 'top seeds'...

[tetsujin1979]

We are due some major luck as we always seem to draw at least one really strong side and not just because they're 'top seeds'...
immaterial, even the "weaker" sides we're drawn against get annointed as heirs to the Barcelona/Bayern/Brazil/Ajax throne by journalists here, see Macedonia, etc

[zero]

We are due some major luck as we always seem to draw at least one really strong side and not just because they're 'top seeds'...

i thought we were fairly lucky with the groups we've got until this one, where i always felt would be hard to overcome sweden, and with little prospect of getting anything off germany who hammer all comers in qualifying (as do spain and holland recently).

regards the rankings - as france are auto qualified, does that make us 2nd seeds?

[Bungle]

There's a fella on ybig who worked it out that we are dependent on Norway and Turkey not winning their two remaining matches - taking it that we lose to the Germans and we beat Kazakhstan, to be second seeds.

[DannyInvincible]

regards the rankings - as france are auto qualified, does that make us 2nd seeds?

Nah, I initially thought that myself, but you'll notice GreenScene included an extra spot in pot two, which is occupied by France, of course. Each other pot has one team less than the number in the second pot.

[Crosby87]

Here's a good question with this: 12 months from now, Qualifying for Euro starts, right? What is your best case scenerio for Irelands starting lineup? What players do you hope take the next step over the next year, come back into the fold, or keep their spots, etc? Gun to your head.....who would you love (or at least like) to see as Irelands Starting Eleven from where we are right now?

[Kingdom]

There's a fella on ybig who worked it out that we are dependent on Norway and Turkey not winning their two remaining matches - taking it that we lose to the Germans and we beat Kazakhstan, to be second seeds.

Well both of them must win their final two games to get into the play-offs, but I think neither will get 2/2. Norway face Iceland, who will only need a point away to Norway to make the playoff(they've Cyprus at home first), and Slovenia away.
The Turks are going to have to beat Holland at home to make playoff as Hungary are a point ahead with a better head to head and face Andorra the same night the Turks face Holland.

[ArdeeBhoy]

immaterial, even the "weaker" sides we're drawn against get annointed as heirs to the Barcelona/Bayern/Brazil/Ajax throne by journalists here, see Macedonia, etc

Do they?
Honestly. If they write that, are only worthy of ignoring...

[as_i_say]

We are due some major luck as we always seem to draw at least one really strong side and not just because they're 'top seeds'...

Sadly I think we've already had our once in 10 years dose of luck getting to the euros.

The collapse of Slovakia, the miracle in Moscow, the hilarious last game v the very improved Armenia with a fantastic own goal and a red card that never should have been awarded, and then the holiest of holies a play off against Estonia.

Reckon we're gonna have to do it by playing well instead:doctor:

[jbyrne]

Sadly I think we've already had our once in 10 years dose of luck getting to the euros.

The collapse of Slovakia, the miracle in Moscow, the hilarious last game v the very improved Armenia with a fantastic own goal and a red card that never should have been awarded, and then the holiest of holies a play off against Estonia.

Reckon we're gonna have to do it by playing well instead:doctor:

you conveniently ignore the very decent 1-1 draw away to slovakia and impressive win away to armenia in that campaign. you also ignore that we earned the right to be seeded in the play-off draw hence the Estonia draw for us.

one of our players (richard dunne) playing unbelievably well to greatly help us get a draw in Moscow (where most teams come back with nothing) isnt necessarily a miracle. teams rely on great individual performances all the time.... alaba in both our austria matches immediately comes to mind

[as_i_say]

agree re: Armenia away certainly and I remember that game well. It was a perfect away performance against a team far better than us technically and who beat Slovakia home and away. But after that game though, it was all downhill for us I think. Moscow was a miracle, not just Dunne. I 've never seen a team get pummelled like that for an entire 90 mins and not concede at least 1 goal.

Fair enough re seeding, I had forgotten that but still any luck we missed out on in Paris we got in spades to get to Euro 2012 imo

[ArdeeBhoy]

Tbf, was at that Armenia game. We were the better team and deserved to win!

[as_i_say]

Yeah agree we did, just saying that they were technically better than us but so is most of Europe:eek:

[legendz]

We're not top 3 in our current group so no one can ever take qualification for granted. With a greater chance of making the Euro's following it's expansion, it's important the right manager is brought in that'll make sure the team does not under perform. There's a good chance of making the Euro's and surely the FAI will be thinking of the cash injection that brings for their coffers. Finishing in the top 2 in a group has never easy. Finishing third and going into a play-off does not guarantee a finals place.

[ArdeeBhoy]

From our rotund 'friend'...
http://www.wsc.co.uk/forum-index/27-football/832487-euro-2016-qualifying

[geysir]

agree re: Armenia away certainly and I remember that game well. It was a perfect away performance against a team far better than us technically and who beat Slovakia home and away. But after that game though, it was all downhill for us I think. Moscow was a miracle, not just Dunne. I 've never seen a team get pummelled like that for an entire 90 mins and not concede at least 1 goal.

Fair enough re seeding, I had forgotten that but still any luck we missed out on in Paris we got in spades to get to Euro 2012 imo
Ireland v Netherlands - sept 2001
Game and qualification should have been over for us in 5 first half minutes, and God knows how that stonewall penalty against Given wasn't awarded, I suppose you could argue the toss for Dunne's hand ball. Then fortune of all fortunes, we got the weakest team in the play offs, nearly made a hash of it at home, managed by some miracle to avoid conceding a goal and with a major slice of extra fortune, Iran bottled it at home when with a bit more conviction we would have collapsed into a heap of jelly.

Oh I forgot, those were our good days, only a Trap team gets lucky :rolleyes:

[ArdeeBhoy]

Nothing ​lucky about that campaign. Bad analogy.

[Stuttgart88]

I'm totally biased Geysir, but all RVN did was run straight into Shay. Shay stood his ground and barely moved into RVN's path. Probably the right call, albeit one always called wrong. I agree about the first 5 mins though!

[geysir]

Nothing ​lucky about that campaign. Bad analogy.
I agree that we got through totally on merit to WC2002, Just the same that we got through to Euro 2012, totally on merit.

However the comparison with 2002 is good. Netherlands should have beaten us that day, just the same as Russia should should have beaten us in Russia. Iran were the weakest play-off opponents just the same as Estonia were the weakest.
And as heroic as Dunne's performance was in Russia, the point we won was not a qualification deal breaker. Not losing in Dublin to Netherlands was a qualification deal breaker.


I'm totally biased Geysir, but all RVN did was run straight into Shay. Shay stood his ground and barely moved into RVN's path. Probably the right call, albeit one always called wrong. I agree about the first 5 mins though!
Then we were fortunate the ref saw it that way, If ever there was a clash in the area that you could say, 'I've seen them given', that was one.
If it was our player who clashed with the goalie and denied a penalty, i'm sure we would all be saying, 'good one ref' :)

[ArdeeBhoy]

Except we deserved it over the whole '02 campaign...
Not just one excellent performance.

[youngirish]

I agree that we got through totally on merit to WC2002, Just the same that we got through to Euro 2012, totally on merit.

However the comparison with 2002 is good. Netherlands should have beaten us that day, just the same as Russia should should have beaten us in Russia. Iran were the weakest play-off opponents just the same as Estonia were the weakest.
And as heroic as Dunne's performance was in Russia, the point we won was not a qualification deal breaker. Not losing in Dublin to Netherlands was a qualification deal breaker.



Then we were fortunate the ref saw it that way, If ever there was a clash in the area that you could say, 'I've seen them given', that was one.
If it was our player who clashed with the goalie and denied a penalty, i'm sure we would all be saying, 'good one ref' :)

Whilst I agree on the day the Netherlands were the better team (they possibly may have deserved a 1 goal win) there wasn't that much in the game. Russia on the other hand pummelled us for the full 90 minutes and should have beaten us by about 4 goals. The Dutch were also extremely lucky to get a point off us at home earlier in the campaign so swings and roundabouts.

The main differences between both campaigns were in 2002 we were a good team who played decent football (as shown when we qualified) and fully deserved our place in the last 16 of the World Cup. In 2012 though we were dreadful. We bundled our way through the qualification groups playing horrible, primitive football and were the worst team in the competition by a distance once we got there.

[geysir]

Whilst I agree on the day the Netherlands were the better team (they possibly may have deserved a 1 goal win) there wasn't that much in the game. Russia on the other hand pummelled us for the full 90 minutes and should have beaten us by about 4 goals. The Dutch were also extremely lucky to get a point off us at home earlier in the campaign so swings and roundabouts.

The main differences between both campaigns were than in 2002 we were a good team who played decent football (as shown when we qualified) and fully deserved our place in the last 16 of the World Cup. In 2012 though we were dreadful. We bundled our way through the qualification groups playing horrible, primitive football and were the worst team in the competition by a distance once we got there.

There wasn't that much in the game against Holland?
You have to be kidding, the Dutch were superior on the day and went home banging their heads against the wall, wondering how they lost to that team.
We were good against Netherlands away, still ended up having to escape with a draw.
Ultra defensive against Portugal away, one 1/2 chance - one equalising goal.
Pretty scrappy against Portugal at home, we were negative and killed football that day.
Crap games against Estonia.
We got Iran the weakest team in the draw and got through that shakily. Where was all the good football in the qualifiers and the play off? There was some no doubt - most of it against Holland, but not very visible in most of the qual games.

We qualified for the play off in 2012 with 4 points to spare, we beat Macedonia and Armenia away and easily qualified for the finals. How on earth is that called 'bundling ones way to the Finals' ? you need your head screwed on youngirish if thats 'bundling ones way to the finals'.
You can say we bundled our way after we qualified.

[ArdeeBhoy]

The revision of history continues...

[geysir]

The revision of history continues...
You do remember the home game against Portugal? We should have been 4 or 5 goals down at half time and Keane single handedly kept us going in the 2nd half in a one man show..
Don't torture the history records by claiming that we played good football against Portugal. We survived by the football grace of Roy Keane. They were on another planet from us in the first half and it's not as if they had a great team by Portugal standards.

[tetsujin1979]

You do remember the home game against Portugal? We should have been 4 or 5 goals down at half time and Keane single handedly kept us going in the 2nd half in a one man show..
Don't torture the history records by claiming that we played good football against Portugal. We survived by the football grace of Roy Keane. They were on another planet from us in the first half and it's not as if they had a great team by Portugal standards.
Here's the lineups: http://www.soccerscene.ie/ss_gen/matchdetails.php?id=366&level=sssenior
Pretty good team from Portugal

[Fixer82]

Ireland v Netherlands - sept 2001
Game and qualification should have been over for us in 5 first half minutes, and God knows how that stonewall penalty against Given wasn't awarded, I suppose you could argue the toss for Dunne's hand ball.

What about the opening game in Holland where we really should have beaten them and were indeed the better team?
Swings and roundabouts

[Stuttgart88]

Could Ireland (or any country our size) ever qualify for a tournament without some slice of luck on the way? We've been eliminated by some outrageous bad luck over the years. I'm happy to accept some good luck when it comes along without having my head wrecked by catholic guilt for years afterwards.

[BonnieShels]

Could Ireland (or any country our size) ever qualify for a tournament without some slice of luck on the way? We've been eliminated by some outrageous bad luck over the years. I'm happy to accept some good luck when it comes along without having my head wrecked by catholic guilt for years afterwards.

We have had more than our fair share.

At this stage I am convinced we are owed a tournament win.

[Sleepingpartner]

You do remember the home game against Portugal? We should have been 4 or 5 goals down at half time and Keane single handedly kept us going in the 2nd half in a one man show..
Don't torture the history records by claiming that we played good football against Portugal. We survived by the football grace of Roy Keane. They were on another planet from us in the first half and it's not as if they had a great team by Portugal standards.

So what? They didn't win. And we were unbeaten and thoroughly deserved qualification. As someone else said 'Get over it'.

Plenty of times had no luck at all.

[Junior]

What about the opening game in Holland where we really should have beaten them and were indeed the better team?
Swings and roundabouts

No doubt we played very well that night and going 2 up, you would hope for the best. One of, if not the, best away performance I can rember being at). The reality however (as geysir states above) is we were very lucky to get out of there with a point and were it not for an outstretched Richard Dunne leg in the last few seconds we would have been coming home empty handed.

[DannyInvincible]

What about the opening game in Holland where we really should have beaten them and were indeed the better team?
Swings and roundabouts

Maybe we "should have", but we didn't. We might have been 2-0 up but they also scored as many goals as we did on the night. Was that really "bad luck" or just another case of our chronic inability to hold on to leads and see out games? I remember Mick expressing his delight with coming away from Amsterdam with a point in an interview after the game.

[Fixer82]

Maybe we "should have", but we didn't. We might have been 2-0 up but they also scored as many goals as we did on the night. Was that really "bad luck" or just another case of our chronic inability to hold on to leads and see out games? I remember Mick expressing his delight with coming away from Amsterdam with a point in an interview after the game.

Kilbane also should have scored and i remember Holland's second goal was wickedly deflected lifting it over Alan Kelly in goal

[Charlie Darwin]

Maybe we "should have", but we didn't. We might have been 2-0 up but they also scored as many goals as we did on the night. Was that really "bad luck" or just another case of our chronic inability to hold on to leads and see out games? I remember Mick expressing his delight with coming away from Amsterdam with a point in an interview after the game.
I believe the prawn sandwiches played a role too.

[BonnieShels]

Maybe we "should have", but we didn't. We might have been 2-0 up but they also scored as many goals as we did on the night. Was that really "bad luck" or just another case of our chronic inability to hold on to leads and see out games? I remember Mick expressing his delight with coming away from Amsterdam with a point in an interview after the game.

And Carr and Keane fit to kill someone because of the draw.

[Stuttgart88]

My recollection is that we had a threadbare bench that night and no substitutions were feasible that wouldn't have weakened us. Harte was asleep at the back post for their first, KK missed a great chance immediately afterwards and from that point on all the momentum was with Holland. They got lucky with the equaliser but the rookie Richard Dunne made the tackle of his career on Kluivert in injury time, to save a certain goal. It was in the context of the last ten mins that people were happy because in that ten mins we escaped a near-certain defeat.

[osarusan]

Maybe we "should have", but we didn't.
And maybe the Dutch should have beaten us in Dublin, but they didn't.

Can't see what this has to do with future campaigns.

[DeLorean]

The trick really is maximise the luck when it comes your way and try to minimise the effect of any misfortune when it goes against you. Try to put yourself in a position where one bad stroke of luck won't be too costly. If we had taken our chances in Paris the handball wouldn't have mattered a jot... in fact it wouldn't have happened full stop. Easier said than done obviously.

[ArdeeBhoy]

And maybe the Dutch should have beaten us in Dublin, but they didn't.

Can't see what this has to do with future campaigns.
Good point. The past is gone as are virtually all the players from 12 years ago...

[paul_oshea]

I'm just back from my sojourn across Eastern europe that started after the sweden game.

I hope we don't ever need to rely on David Forde again. How he got beaten for that goal against sweden ill never know and under his body too. He was very poor in that game, didn't look confident at all. Thats the kinda thing i envisaged from what I had seen of him before.

Ibra is pure class. The ground he covers in two movements is about 6 steps for someone like McCarthy. Same player got a schooling both nights, he is nowhere near a £13million pound player, only time will tell will he ever be near it.

I lay most of the problems, with the last 2 games, on the dropped the points against Austria. Purely Traps mistake. Ill repeat it now as well, had this been the group we faced when we got to the world cup 2010 play-off or that Euro play off, we would have had a similar outcome. Trap got lucky, was found out and it came home to roost. I do feel sorry that certain players didn't perform for him over the last 2 games but perhaps they had grown tired of him also.
What we need for the next campaign is to focus on our positives and shore up and breed confidence among the players. Too fragile and weak-minded, very bad trait for young players. They can do it at their clubs so why not for us?

[geysir]

Here's the lineups: http://www.soccerscene.ie/ss_gen/matchdetails.php?id=366&level=sssenior
Pretty good team from Portugal
Yes it was a pretty good team, but didn't do much at the 2002 World Cup, therefore I said they didn't have a great team, by Portugal standards.
Didn't they manage to get well beaten by the USA, who are probably ranked as cr'ap by those who think we blundered our way to the 2012 Euros? :)

[geysir]

And maybe the Dutch should have beaten us in Dublin, but they didn't.

Can't see what this has to do with future campaigns.
Maybe the Dutch should have beaten us, for sure Portugal should have spanked us, maybe we didn't even play decent football in most of the games.
Just in case people think that we played a special brand of champagne football then, or the opposition didn't miss a hatful of chances in the two key games, when we qualified for WC2002. That we never had the worst team in a play off draw before.
There appears to be a relegation of the achievement of getting to euro 2012, to that of a blunder following more blunders, that we sort of stumbled there, experiencing an incredible amount of the luck, the equivalent of one lotto win a month for two years. That we never experienced getting a draw, when we should have been hammered.

I wouldn't mind if we had to blunder our way through the next qualifying group to the finals, not in the same way of course, a different type of blunder will do.