Remaining games prediction and final table.

[tricky_colour]

If found this remarkably easy to do.

ire cro = cro
spain ita = dra


cro 3
ita 1
spa 1
ire 0

ire ita = ire
croa spa = dra

cor 3
ire 3
spa 2
ita 1

ire spain = dra
croat italy = dra

cro 4
ire 4
spa 3
ita 2

I do have one doubt, I think we may well beat Spain rather than draw, but I
have been conservative and settled for the draw.

Now it is off to the bookies to slap some big money on, but I will cover the Ireland win as well.


9/4 x 5 (12 with Ireland win) x 3 x 4

so I have 60 x 2.25 = 135-1

or

144 x 2.25 = 288+38 = 324 -1

Just a question of how much to put on.

[nigel-harps1954]

Put your house and your entire life savings on it. It's a cert.

[Charlie Darwin]

I like your idea of playing Italy next and saving Spain for the final day. Not sure it will fly with UEFA however.

[boysingreen]

Is head-to-head the first tiebreaker, say we were tied with Croatia at the end? I assume it is, followed by goal difference.

Is it possible for us to get 4 points from our next 2 games and NOT advance? Messaging on the run here, otherwise I'd parse the permutations myself. Has anyone already looked at it?

[tricky_colour]

I like your idea of playing Italy next and saving Spain for the final day. Not sure it will fly with UEFA however.

Yes I am aware the order I wrote them down on might be incorrect, but that wil not affect the results.
I am very confident of my predictions.

[tricky_colour]

Is head-to-head the first tiebreaker, say we were tied with Croatia at the end? I assume it is, followed by goal difference.

Is it possible for us to get 4 points from our next 2 games and NOT advance? Messaging on the run here, otherwise I'd parse the permutations myself. Has anyone already looked at it?

I am assume head to head is the first tie breaker, that seems to be the norm these days, also whatever method they
use we usual come out second best, head to head might actually be the best we can hope for.

4 points and not qualify? Not sure. I think I made a mistake in my initial tables.
Corrected (missed point for Croatia in second game)

ire cro = cro
spain ita = dra


cro 3
ita 1
spa 1
ire 0

ire ita = ire
croa spa = dra

cor 4
ire 3
spa 2
ita 1

ire spain = dra
croat italy = dra

cro 5
ire 4
spa 3
ita 2

[tricky_colour]

Does this leave us on 4 points and not qualifying?
I think it does I need to check again.

ire cro = cro
spain ita = dra


cro 3
ita 1
spa 1
ire 0



ire spa = ire
cro ita = ital


cro 3
ita 4
spa 1
ire 3


ire ita = dra
spa cro = cro

cro 6
ita 5
ire 4
spa 1

[tricky_colour]

So it seem if Croatia win one and lose one we are in big trouble and need to win both our matches!!!

(assuming I made no mistakes).
Draws help because it means 2 not 3 points are distributed to other teams.

[tricky_colour]

Actually the tie breaker rules are pretty simple :p

Tie-breaker rules

POINT SYSTEM :
Three points for a win, one point for a draw, and no points for defeat.

TIE-BREAKER RULES :
If two or more teams finish equal on points after all the group matches have been played, the following criteria will be applied to determine the ranking :


(a) Greater number of points obtained in the matches between the teams in question.
(b) Goal difference resulting from the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).
(c) Greater number of goals scored in the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).
(d) Goal difference in all the group matches.
(e) Greater number of goals scored in all the group matches.
(f) Higher position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking.
(g) Fair Play conduct of the teams (final tournament).
(h) A drawing of lots by the Organising Committ

[koneinc]

Some good info here --> http://neverfeltbetter.wordpress.com/2012/06/11/permutations-for-ireland-looking-ahead-and-markets-field-problems/

[SkStu]

I predict we will be out of the tournament on Thursday night. Don't think we have another gear to match Spain. Hoping for a victory over Italy to have something to cheer about.

[Real ale Madrid]

I think a Draw for us and a win for Italy tomorrow night would put us right back in the hunt really. That would leave the table:

Italy 4
Croatia 3
Spain 2
Ireland 1

A win for us against Italy and a decisive result in Spain / Croatia game would take us through.

Hard to see us fullfilling our end of the bargain at this stage but if you could get past stage 1 of above, then anything is possible on the last day - I think most would bite your hand off for that as it stands at the moment.

[legendz]

Italy 1 - 1 Croatia
Spain 0 - 1 Ireland

Croatia 1 - 3 Spain
Italy 0 - 2 Ireland

Ireland - 6
Spain - 4
Croatia - 4
Italy - 2

[Crosby87]

Me head says 6-1 Spain, Me heart says 5-1 Spain.
And the 1 will be a late meaningless goal from Sideshow Bob er Stevie Hunt.