Poll shows sharp drop in satisfaction with Government

[legendz]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0419/poll-shows-drop-in-satisfaction-with-government.html

Is this the start of the tide turning against the government and people scrambling looking for an alternative? Early days, only one poll. Will FG & Lab last the distance?

[dahamsta]

In other news, fire is hot!

[mypost]

Is this the start of the tide turning against the government and people scrambling looking for an alternative? Early days, only one poll. Will FG & Lab last the distance?

We were due to have an election next month if the last government remained in office.

The government have a comfortable majority and with no realistic alternative available, they will last the distance.

[Eminence Grise]

There is an element of surprise in the results - usually parties receive an artificial popularity boost in the few weeks following their national conferences. Other than that, it's of no great significance. The referendum will be a more telling poll.

[Mr A]

I think part of what they're suffering for is consistently poor communication. Whatever about their decisions, if they managed to articulate their reasoning without mixed messages from various ministers and basically looking like no one in there talks to each other, it'd be a start.

[Lim till i die]

The big story here is the fact that the Labour Party is terminally ill and Sinn Fein are going to be the party of the "left" for the forseeable.

Turns out Gilmore and Rabbitte were plants all along.

First they destroyed the Sticks, now they're finishing off "Labour"

Superb planning on the part of the Provos.

In all seriousness though, it must be a sickener if you're a Labour grass roots member (who quite possibly believed in something once upon a time.). Big Phil and Edna make a shambles of everything in sight and the Labour mud guard takes up all the flack.

And for what?? So a few of the boys and girls can ride off into the sunset with fat pensions.

[dahamsta]

I've never had any time for Gilmore, but I've been very disappointed with Rabbitte. I considered him a genuine Labour guy before he went into government. Gilmore is just a B.liar pretender. A bad one.

[culloty82]

Suddenly an FG government supported by FF looks a distinct possibility:

FG 72
SF 31
Lab 22
FF 15
Others 26

FG/Lab 94 (4/6)
FG/FF 87 (5/1 single-party, 6/1 coalition)

I suspect Burton will ultimately try for the leadership, but she'll wait until 2014 to make her move.

[BonnieShels]

Gilmore is a pox on Labour and has been since he took the leadership. his ego is way too inflated to be a no.2 in government.

The priority now for FG is to keep Burton from challenging for the leadership too soon and to stop Phil Hogan doing anything.

[Eminence Grise]

Some would argue that Gilmore really is a No.2...:poo:

The perfect solution for FG would be for Phil Hogan to become the next Labour leader!!!

[BonnieShels]

Some would argue that Gilmore really is a No.2...:poo:

The perfect solution for FG would be for Phil Hogan to become the next Labour leader!!!

He's a jammy s*** more than anything. He's below no. 2. Pat should still be leader in my view and should be about now, handing the reins over to Joan. More right place, right time than having any discernible political talent. He's horrible to deal with to boot.

[mypost]

Rabbitte lost them seats in 2007. Gilmore won 16 seats in 2011, who would you keep?

[BonnieShels]

Rabbitte lost them a seat (net) in 2007. Not a disaster in the overall scheme of things when you had a resurgent FG under Inda and FF lying like the sons of bitches that they were.

He could have easily achieved what Gilmore achieved and the rest in 2011 without the inflated ego and petulance that Gilmore is famed for. He also would be in a nice position now to do a handover which Gilmore won't do and will ultimately destroy the Labour Party in the long-term. But you can see that of course.

How can you live in such a black and white world? How?

[bennocelt]

Rabbite wasn't great either tbh

[BonnieShels]

Rabbitte is a bruiser and is remarkably more politically astute and able than Gilmore is. It has been borne out over the years.

Gilmore will destroy Labour. Joan is damned if she does and damned if she doesn't.

[mypost]

Rabbitte lost them a seat (net) in 2007. Not a disaster in the overall scheme of things when you had a resurgent FG under Inda and FF lying like the sons of bitches that they were.

He could have easily achieved what Gilmore achieved and the rest in 2011 without the inflated ego and petulance that Gilmore is famed for. He also would be in a nice position now to do a handover which Gilmore won't do and will ultimately destroy the Labour Party in the long-term. But you can see that of course.

Rabbitte had his shot, didn't do a great job. He would have been in government in 2007 had he secured another 5-10 seats, to go with the 20 more Kenny won. But he didn't, so he resigned.

[bennocelt]

Rabbitte is a bruiser and is remarkably more politically astute and able than Gilmore is. It has been borne out over the years.

Gilmore will destroy Labour. Joan is damned if she does and damned if she doesn't.

Not really, if you are looking for success. What will he be remembered for? I just know him as another one of these labour guys who steered labour widely off direction and Gilmore is just following on from that.

[Macy]

In all seriousness though, it must be a sickener if you're a Labour grass roots member (who quite possibly believed in something once upon a time.). Big Phil and Edna make a shambles of everything in sight and the Labour mud guard takes up all the flack.
The "grass roots" had the chance to vote against the motion to go in with FG in the first place. They and the leadership should've had the balls to sit it out, but then what would be the reaction to Labour not going in? Imagine what'd be whipped up against labour in the media if they'd forced FG elsewhere or a fresh election? Damned if they did, damned if they didn't.

Poor communication is killing the Government, and poor selection of briefs (albeit for the right reasons) is killing Labour. The Labour support increase was always going to be softer as a lot of it was in none traditional areas. However, on those figures this Government would still be returned. I do think the media have had a roll to play in this as well creating stories/ issues to a certain degree. Most of the "broken promises" stuff doesn't really stack up, and is often followed by demands to break actual promises they did make pre election regarding things like Welfare rates and the Croke Park Agreement. The FF lapdogs like Shane Coleman and various INM hacks and editors are especially bitter at Labour.

[Lim till i die]

The "grass roots" had the chance to vote against the motion to go in with FG in the first place. They and the leadership should've had the balls to sit it out, but then what would be the reaction to Labour not going in? Imagine what'd be whipped up against labour in the media if they'd forced FG elsewhere or a fresh election? Damned if they did, damned if they didn't.

Labour could have left Fine Gael hang in the wind and told the electorate exactly why they were doing so. (Fine Gael are a bit Fascist, hate the poor, stuff like that.)

This would have been a massive win for Labour. The best Fine Gael could have hoped for at that stage would have been to scramble together a minority government with various right wing independents (Donnelly and the likes.)

This government would have been almost universally despised, wouldn't have lasted its term and at the following election Labour would have flew in as the biggest party in a broad coalition. This was too big a risk for Gilmore and the old guard though so it didn't happen.

The result is that Labour are doomed and Sinn Fein will now eat them alive.


Most of the "broken promises" stuff doesn't really stack up

There's more than enough of it around to be incredibly damaging.

Gilmore and his past, for example, are poison.




On Burton making a push for the leadership - she must be in her sixties at this stage?? Is she really the answer?? And more importantly, is there any young people of any ability in the Labour party?? If so, where are they??

If you look around the Dail at the other parties, regardless of what you think of them (and I'm about to name a right few doozies here) relative youth is to the fore in the publics eye:

Fianna Fail - McGrath, Collins, McSharry
Fine Gael - Varadkar, Creighton, Coveney
Sinn Fein - Doherty, McLochlainn, McDonald

Even the SP have Claire Daly and the SWP have Boyd Barrett.

When I try to think of young Labour TDs all I can think of is floppy fringe from Clare (I just had to google to find out he's Michael McNamara.) and he's terrible.

[Mr A]

Derek Nolan from Labour is pretty young, he's in Galway West. Seemed a pretty decent guy when I spoke to him (which was only twice).

Another poll out yesterday also: http://www.thejournal.ie/new-opinion-poll-shows-dip-in-sinn-feins-popularity-425470-Apr2012/ This has SF down 4 points and FG + independents flying still.

I sometimes wonder how important it is for Labour to be seen as the party of the left. I see them as centre left (i.e. more centre than left). There is little historical evidence to suggest that there is a big appetite for a leftist party in Ireland. Even SF have been moving towards the massively towards the centre in recent years from their previous position.

Edit: just noticed the picture with that link. Looks like Gerry is highly amused that Mary Lou has turned up for work a bit plastered. :)

[Macy]

Labour could have left Fine Gael hang in the wind and told the electorate exactly why they were doing so. (Fine Gael are a bit Fascist, hate the poor, stuff like that.)

This would have been a massive win for Labour. The best Fine Gael could have hoped for at that stage would have been to scramble together a minority government with various right wing independents (Donnelly and the likes.)

This government would have been almost universally despised, wouldn't have lasted its term and at the following election Labour would have flew in as the biggest party in a broad coalition. This was too big a risk for Gilmore and the old guard though so it didn't happen.

The result is that Labour are doomed and Sinn Fein will now eat them alive.

Don't disagree with that at all. Would've much preferred Labour to stay out and force FG in with FF/ Independents. My point was that the grassroots can hardly moan, as they had the opportunity to vote on it.


There's more than enough of it around to be incredibly damaging.

Gilmore and his past, for example, are poison.
A lot of the stuff from before the election doesn't stack up, imo. And dragging stuff from 20+ years ago up is a bit ridiculous. His leaflet on water charges keeps cropping up, but are politicians not allowed change opinion over that type of timescale?


On Burton making a push for the leadership - she must be in her sixties at this stage?? Is she really the answer?? And more importantly, is there any young people of any ability in the Labour party?? If so, where are they??

If you look around the Dail at the other parties, regardless of what you think of them (and I'm about to name a right few doozies here) relative youth is to the fore in the publics eye:

Fianna Fail - McGrath, Collins, McSharry
Fine Gael - Varadkar, Creighton, Coveney
Sinn Fein - Doherty, McLochlainn, McDonald

Even the SP have Claire Daly and the SWP have Boyd Barrett.

When I try to think of young Labour TDs all I can think of is floppy fringe from Clare (I just had to google to find out he's Michael McNamara.) and he's terrible.
Hannigan, Keaveney, Kelly, Ó Ríordáin? (I'm trying to ignore the most prominent - that idiot Sherlock).

[mypost]

Would've much preferred Labour to stay out and force FG in with FF/ Independents.

People said it about the Greens last time, and the Libs in the UK, that they shouldn't have gone into power when they did.

Politicians want to be in power. They don't reject the opportunity to govern when the chance comes along.

[BonnieShels]

And that's why those expressing an interest and ambition to be involved in politics should be barred from doing so.