French Presidential Election 2012

[culloty82]

In just over a fortnight, the French go to the polls - ten candidates will be on the ballot paper, but only five will have significant support levels. Sarkozy has a narrow first-round opinion poll lead over his main rival, Francois Hollande, but all run-off projections give victory to the Socialist contender. Le Pen has finally retired, and while his daughter, Marine, has support levels in the mid-teens, she won't make round two, nor will the liberal candidate, Francois Bayrou. The main story of the last month, however, has been the steady rise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has the backing of the Communists and the far-left, making him the French equivalent of Joe Higgins. While he probably won't make the run-off either, he's currently polling third ahead of Le Pen, and will serve to make Hollande's margin of victory much tighter than predicted four weeks ago.

[Eminence Grise]

I still think it's going to be Hollande. Sarkozy is very unpopular, almost from the get-go, really. He's made a haimes of too many things - youth disaffection (mainly second generation North Americans), allowing a strong Germany under Merkel, the economy, the Gadaffi link, and never had the harness of 'cohabitation' to blame (hard to believe it's a decade since the Chirac-Jospin powershare.)... He's lucky that there are no real contenders on the right. Marine le Pen has moved the FN a little towards the centre (now a smidgin to the left of Hitler!!) but the FN has declined over the last few elections, and she had difficulty securing a nomination. Sarko'll survive till the second round. The only thing that could put a spanner in the works is Mélenchon; he could split the left vote, the same way it fragmented in Chirac's second run, allowing Bayrou to sneak into the second round - if he can regain some of the UDF vote he lost after he split to set up MoDem, and if he can pull other right of centre votes from Sarkozy. They're big ifs, though, and I don't see Mélenchon moving ahead of Hollande, so in the second round (just two go through) I'd estimate around 55:45 Hollande-Sarkozy.

Edit
RTE has this to say today:
'Supporters of French hardline leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon will be urged to vote for Socialist Francois Hollande in a presidential election run-off against incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, a spokeswoman said today.'
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0406/left-wing-candidates-unite-against-sarkozy.html

[culloty82]

There will be an amount of horse-trading between Melenchon and Hollande, as the parliamentary elections, where the Socialists, Communists and Greens traditionally form a pact, directly follow the presidential vote, so the first-round scores will determine the carve-up of territory.

[Eminence Grise]

Probably: Mélenchon has ministerial ambitions alright, but they may not be served by a first round pact. He would need a good showing (third place) to boost the MoDem.
So far, he's resisted a clear call for his supporters to vote for Hollande in the run-off, but there's a tacit approval for it. A left President and a left PM - it's been a while!

[Eminence Grise]

An unexpected surge for Marine le Pen has put her back in third place in the polls. She's the most popular candidate with young voters (18-24), but there is the caveat that they are less likely to turn out than older voters.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0411/1224314608134.html

[peadar1987]

My money's on Hollande, and I agree with him more than with Sarkozy on pretty much everything except for the opposition to nuclear power. Although to be honest, I can't see the proposed reduction from 70% to 50% grid penetration happening, there's just too much energy demand, with the rising cost of fossil fuels, and the Germans' decision to shut down their reactors.

[culloty82]

The Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/elysee) has probably the most in-depth coverage, even if predictably backing Sarkozy.

[culloty82]

Hollande has a two-point lead, but Le Pen does better than her father did in '02:

Hollande 28%
Sarkozy 26%
Le Pen 20%
Melenchon 12%
Bayrou 9%
Other Left 4%
Other Right 2%

Left 44%
Right 47%
Centre 9%

Like SF here though, the Front National voters don't transfer well to other parties.

[culloty82]

Le Pen announces that she will spoil her vote, advising her followers to do likewise or abstain, and in the process, copperfastens Hollande's position, as all the other left candidates have confirmed their support for the Socialists.

[mypost]

Francis Holland won the election. Despite promising all and sundry to the French voters, he's already had to backtrack on his promises to "re-negotiate" the Austerity Compact. If he can't stand up to Berlin, who can?