Growth in support for Sinn Fein?

[legendz]

Are we likely to see Sinn Fein being part of government this decade? They are campaigning against a lot of what people would not support. If people have firmly moved away from the toxic FF and are not pleased with FG/LAb, will Sinn Fein be able to be come a major player in Irish politics. The Presidential election gave Sinn Fein a chance for discussion to me made of their role in politics. It was believed once they got that discussion over with, they could grow from there.

[Macy]

I wouldn't be basing it on last weekends poll, but I don't see why not. I've never got the objection based on their past, given the history of most parties in this state. Labour (wrongly) going into Government has left them exposed on the left.

FF are in a very dodgy position. Excellently, they've really fecked up with Martin, and the only alternative view in the party appears to be that they should be complete hypocrits in opposition and not tied to views they held when in Government. I really hope they do, as they'll get absolutely hammered. That may be an approach with a totally untarnished front bench/ parliamentary party, but they don't have that.

[mypost]

FF are irrelevant in Irish politics atm. Indeed their most worthwhile contribution these days is stating that the current government are busy implementing their policies. SF and the Indies are the only credible opposition, but the reality is the Indies have more chance of being in power after the next election, as the mainstream parties refuse to have any dealings with Sinn Fein.

[drummerboy]

I reckon a lot of people who voted for Labour last time will now turn to SF. Labour have been a huge disappointment since they got into power. Burton treating people on the dole like scroungers does not go down well with people who have lost their jobs.

[Spudulika]

I'm with drummerboy on being disillusioned with Labour. At the time I felt they were wrong to go into government with FG, nothing has happened to change my mind. It's easy to draw similarities with the Lib Dems in the UK, so desperate to be important and get some jobs for the boys that they went in with their blood enemies. SF will pick up voters and there is room for a new party, though this is Ireland, it can only be a centrist group who will come from FF or FG.

[mypost]

Labour's biggest success so far was protecting basic social welfare rates. As for all the talk pre-election of reforming the welfare system itself, nothing has been done about it in the past year, except threatening the unemployed again that their dole will be slashed if they don't look for non-existent jobs.

The 45+ TD age bracket in the Dail in most of the centerist parties still see SF as a political wing of the IRA and don't want to be associated with them, while the Irish public see them as a radical alternative to banks and bankers, who are economically prioritised over everyone and everything in the state atm.

I don't know if there is room for another conventional political party though. FF-Reserves voted themselves out of existence 3 years ago, while Democratic Left and Workers Party have all long gone. The Greens are a footnote on the stage, and although Libertas tested the water 3 years ago and promptly got booted out of existence, there isn't the will imo to set up a new one. So inertia wins.

[Eminence Grise]

Interesting to hear Aengus O'Snodaigh on Morning Ireland this morning defending his use of €50,000 worth of printer cartridges over a two-year period in the Dail (2007-8, I thought I heard them say). Apart from being a very obvious abuse of resources (they were used to print constituency leaflets, but there are cheaper colour copying facilities for TDs, or they could have been done for a fraction of the cost by a print/copy bureau) the timing suggests to me that somebody somewhere was sitting on this story until the right moment came along...

[Macy]

I'm with drummerboy on being disillusioned with Labour. At the time I felt they were wrong to go into government with FG, nothing has happened to change my mind. It's easy to draw similarities with the Lib Dems in the UK, so desperate to be important and get some jobs for the boys that they went in with their blood enemies. SF will pick up voters and there is room for a new party, though this is Ireland, it can only be a centrist group who will come from FF or FG.
Unless my memory is failing me, why the feck would you be disillusioned with Labour, when you didn't want them near Government in the first place and weren't a labour supporter/ voter?

[culloty82]

Certainly after a decade, I think most people would now accept that SF are now entitled to be considered for government, the only question as I've said before, is whether the old guard are a help or a hindrance in that regard. They've certainly been to the forefront of opposition over the last 12 months, with FF merely taking a back seat and waiting to see which way the popular wind is blowing, and as drummerboy said, they're currently viewed as the major left-wing party, however true that may be. Further proof that FF have learnt nothing is that O'Donoghue, Coughlan and Pat "the Cope" Gallagher are all planning comebacks, with Gogarty also considering joining them. As for new parties, McDowell (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0227/1224312439734.html) seems to be about to launch one, presumably he's been in contact with current TDs?

Adrian Kavanagh gives his usual breakdown of the poll for Dáil numbers (http://politicalreform.ie/2012/02/26/has-sinn-feins-day-come-sunday-times-behaviour-attitudes-poll-26th-february-2012/#more-3220) - some constituencies a bit optimistic, but the trend is unmistakable:

FG: 63
SF: 44
FF: 24
Lab: 11
Oth: 24

[Spudulika]

Unless my memory is failing me, why the feck would you be disillusioned with Labour, when you didn't want them near Government in the first place and weren't a labour supporter/ voter?


I was a Labour voter (I just object to Joan Burton's whining) and was disillusioned seeing them go into government with FG, they should have left the FG'ers go in with FF and both then lose a generation of elections.

Actually, I was a proper Labourist as way back when I assisted the Mary Robinson campaign (well, was "encouraged" by my Mother and Father to go with them).

[legendz]

As for new parties, McDowell (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0227/1224312439734.html) seems to be about to launch one, presumably he's been in contact with current TDs?

McDowell was wrong about the referendum:

He said that if a referendum were required on the European fiscal compact, it would be a “no-brainer” because Ireland had no choice under current circumstances but to go along with what Europe was proposing.
There wouldn’t be a referendum because “despite all the bluffing and dissimulation” huge efforts were made to ensure the contract was drafted in a way that didn’t require a vote in Ireland.

[culloty82]

So will Inkgate leave any lasting impact on perceptions of SF? No illegal act was committed, but it did amount to abuse of a privilege hardly in keeping with the carefully-constructed image as the working-class party.

[Eminence Grise]

Not exactly the first time a Shinner got in trouble for possessing cartridges...

[born2bwild]

FF are irrelevant in Irish politics atm. Indeed their most worthwhile contribution these days is stating that the current government are busy implementing their policies. SF and the Indies are the only credible opposition, but the reality is the Indies have more chance of being in power after the next election, as the mainstream parties refuse to have any dealings with Sinn Fein.
Sinn Fein are far more conventional than the 'Indies' - because the 'Indies' are actually left wing while the shinners are no more left wing than Bertie Ahern the socialist. Mark my words: they'll be in power within 10 years and it'll be like Fianna Fail never went away, you know.

[Charlie Darwin]

Sinn Fein are far more conventional than the 'Indies' - because the 'Indies' are actually left wing while the shinners are no more left wing than Bertie Ahern the socialist. Mark my words: they'll be in power within 10 years and it'll be like Fianna Fail never went away, you know.
This isn't particularly unusual. I heard a rumour Labour were a left wing party too. Probably just kids joking around.

[BonnieShels]

Interesting to hear Aengus O'Snodaigh on Morning Ireland this morning defending his use of €50,000 worth of printer cartridges over a two-year period in the Dail (2007-8, I thought I heard them say). Apart from being a very obvious abuse of resources (they were used to print constituency leaflets, but there are cheaper colour copying facilities for TDs, or they could have been done for a fraction of the cost by a print/copy bureau) the timing suggests to me that somebody somewhere was sitting on this story until the right moment came along...

Funny I've been saying this since it broke and I was told I was very cynical. Imagine that, me, cynical. I was then accused of defending SF.

[BonnieShels]

Sinn Fein are far more conventional than the 'Indies' - because the 'Indies' are actually left wing while the shinners are no more left wing than Bertie Ahern the socialist. Mark my words: they'll be in power within 10 years and it'll be like Fianna Fail never went away, you know.

Nearly puked into my own mouth there.