Second placed team permutations and favourable results for Ireland

[Scooby Doo]

Ok so I have studied at length all the possible permutations with regard to the best second placed team across the Euro 2012 groups and have come up with the following. I'm open to correction on this but I reckon I've identified the results that we need to have fallen our way to clinch this automatic place, providing we have won our last two games and haven't already won the group.

So here goes:

Groups A-F (we’re in group B) have six teams and G,H and I have five. So when the final group results are in then the points gained against the worst placed team in each of group A-F will be deducted (in our case Andorra). The best second placed team will be decided from there.

If we win our next two games we will be on 21 points, minus the 6 v Andorra and that gives a final total of 15.

The only second placed teams that can beat that total are Sweden (max 24-6=18), Croatia (max 25-6=19) and Greece [same group] (max 24-6=18), Montenegro (max 17), Denmark (max 19) and the Czech Republic (max 16).

So providing we win our two matches we need the following results to go for us:


Group E – Finland v Sweden (a draw would be perfect)
Sweden v Holland (Holland win, or draw if Sweden failed to beat Finland)


Group F – Greece v Croatia (Croatia win)
Georgia v Greece (a draw or defeat for Greece would be great) We want Croatia to win this group.


Group G – Montenegro v England (England win)
Switzerland v Montenegro (Swiss win or a draw) Any defeat for Montenegro puts them out of running.


Group H – Cyprus v Denmark (Any result for Cyprus)
Portugal v Iceland (Portugal win)
Denmark v Portugal (Portugal win)

This is the most worrying group. I think that three points for Denmark puts them above us so we need to pray Cyprus can do us a favour and hope Portugal take something in Copenhagen!


Group I – Czech Rep. v Spain (Spain win or draw)
Lithuania v Czech Rep. (Lithuania win or draw but irrelevant if Spain have taken something from the Czechs).


So aside from Ireland, we’re also cheering on Finland, Holland, Croatia, Portugal, Cyprus, Spain, Lithuania, England and Switzerland!

Simples!

[SwanVsDalton]

Never heard of Times New Roman but they appear to be in a very strong position going into the final games.

EDIT - Never mind. You fixed the font issue fast there Scooby!

Good detailed work on this but it only goes to show how unlikely it is we'll make best runner up. Still good to keep an eye on it.

[Scooby Doo]

Never heard of Times New Roman but they appear to be in a very strong position going into the final games.

EDIT - Never mind. You fixed the font issue fast there Scooby!

Good detailed work on this but it only goes to show how unlikely it is we'll make best runner up. Still good to keep an eye on it.

Computers are not my friend SvD.

I'm somewhat optimistic that we will have qualified one way or another by next Tuesday night. Or maybe that's just wishful thinking and dread at the thought of a playoff.

[geysir]

I think we have a better chance of topping our group (slim) with 21 points, than coming in at best runner up (slimmer).

[Sullivinho]

Fair play for getting your head around all that Scooby. I think it'l be the playoffs for us again tbh but it's nice to know we have options!:)

[Scooby Doo]

Cheers. Looking at the above info in black and white it doesn't seem very likely that we'll nip in as best second place - however apart from maybe the Denmark/Portugal group where we need a minor miracle to keep the Danes from overtaking us - all other the desired results are entirely plausible; so, if our old friends Cyprus can give us a dig-out on Friday, then why not dream a little!?

[zero]

Cheers. Looking at the above info in black and white it doesn't seem very likely that we'll nip in as best second place - however apart from maybe the Denmark/Portugal group where we need a minor miracle to keep the Danes from overtaking us - all other the desired results are entirely plausible; so, if our old friends Cyprus can give us a dig-out on Friday, then why not dream a little!?

yeah it's a long shot. in that group, portugal failing to beat iceland at home on the 7th then losing in denmark would achieve the same result i think.

[geysir]

Sweden go into pole position to qualify as best runners up after beating Finland 2-1.
Scooby's 5000/1 shot, an accumulator of favorable results, fall with the first runner.
But full marks for looking for a glimmer of hope in that darkness.

[Scooby Doo]

Sweden go into pole position to qualify as best runners up after beating Finland 2-1.
Scooby's 5000/1 shot, an accumulator of favorable results, fall with the first runner.
But full marks for looking for a glimmer of hope in that darkness.
Denmark are four mins from a comprehensive win over Cyprus also, so its the playoffs to aim for, pure and simple. Tuesday will be a nervy evening.

[Cymro]

The playoffs don't look as strong this time around, certainly not as strong as the last time we were involved when we would have met one of Russia, Netherlands, Spain, Turkey (then WC semi-finalists at last WC), or Croatia (semi-finalists at WC '98). There are some favourable draws to be had in there.

[Fergie's Son]

Will the play offs be seeded?

[Stuttgart88]

Yes, they will.

[shakermaker1982]

No teams to fear IMO. Big ask of course if we do make play offs but I'd say we'll be in a close game whoever we play.

[culloty82]

Montenegro are guaranteed second, thanks to Wales' win last night. We now want Slovenia to draw with Serbia, allowing Estonia to finish runners-up to Italy, and Sweden to be best second place overall. Right to say no major teams involved, though if Bosnia beat France, we could be back to Stade de France.

[Kingdom]

Ignore this rubbish, for my opinion, just ask Irwin!

[Irwin3]

Thought Slovakia would put up more of a fight against Russia, but Russia deserve to top the group. I said all along that slovakia were poor, and that we dropped two bad points over there.

I think we'll be comfortable on Tuesday to be honest. The management have been made aware by the YBIG of the significance of a win on Tuesday night, a win would give us as good a chance of being seeded in the play-offs as possible. A draw would nearly certainly mean being unseeded.

As it stands the runners up will be:

Turkey/Belgium - Belgium must beat Germany in Dusseldorf to get second spot - not out of the question. Turkey
Estonia/Serbia. Serbia must beat Slovenia in Ljubliana to get 2nd, can't see it. Estonia
Sweden
Greece/Croatia - Greece need a point in Georgia to win group. Croatia
Bosnia/France. Bosnia need to win in Paris to win group. B&H
Czech Rep/Scotland. Scotland need to get the same result in Spain as Czech's do in Lithuania. Doesn't matter, they're both garbage. Czechs.
Montenegro
Denmark/Portugal. Portugal need a draw in the Parken to win the group. Should be good enough for it. Denmark

If it works out this way, we've the following runners-up:

Turkiye
Ireland
Eesti
Bosnia&Herzegovina
Swerige
Hrvatska
Crne Gore
Dansk
Ceske

with either Denmark, Sweden or Croatia (most likely) being the automatic qualifier. Assuming Croatia beat Latvia, and that Sweden and Denmark fail to beat Holland and Portugal respectively, Croatia (thankfully) would qualify automatically, therefore the seeds being:
Sweden, Denmark, Ireland and Bosnia
&
Turkey, Czech Rep, Montenegro and Estonia being unseeded
(based on this acknowledged website http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011)

The big game is Slovenia v Serbia. If Serbia were to win, they'd replace Estonia as runner-up, and knock Bosnia out of the seedings. It would put even more pressure on us against Armenia, as while we're far ahead of Mont & Estonia in the ranking points, there is virtually nothing between ourselves and Turkey and Bosnia. Bosnia are irrelevant as to go ahead of us, they'd have to beat France, which if they do, they'll win their group, and France would be a seed automatically anyway. If that were to happen (and I don't think it will), it would then be between ourselves and the *******s of the Bosphorus. They play Azerbaijan in Istanbul, and they have to win, and to be fair to the Azeri's they're gash, so Turkey could put a few past them (which has an effect on the rankings as well). They will usurp Bosnia in the seedings too.

So to summarise.
If we beat Armenia by more than 1 goal, and Serbia fail to beat Slovenia, with France getting a least a point against Bosnia, we'll be drawn against one of Estonia, Montenegro, Czech or Bosnia. I'd fancy us all night long against all except Bosnia, and even then we'd be more than a match for them.

Clear?

Denmark can stay ahead of Croatia even if they lose to Portugal. It would go to goal difference. Croatia would need a 5 goal swing in their favour if Denmark lose to overtake Denmark.
If Denmark beat Portugal then Portugal would finish second. Croatia would need a 7 goal swing to overtake Portugal.
If Denmark draw then they will have 17 points and Croatia would be behind.
If Sweden get a point then Croatia would have to beat Latvia by 5 goals to overtake Sweden.
I don't think Croatia are favourites.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2012_qualifying#Ranking_of_second-placed_teams

[Kingdom]

I doff my cap to you sir.
If that had't been a dual, I'd have had my cumuppence.

[Irwin3]

My brain is frying from thinking about this stuff. I just can't stop. The sooner Tuesday is over with the better!

[ArdeeBhoy]

Don't think we'll beat Armenia by more than one goal (if only), but assuming a draw in our game (a massive 'if' currently) we need Slovenia to not lose currently?
Who else should we be 'cheering' for? Not sure I can do that with at least one of the teams concerned?

[Irwin3]

Don't think we'd beat Armenia by more than one goal (if only), but assuming a draw in our game (a massive 'if' currently) we need Slovenia to not lose currently?
Who else should we be 'cheering' for? Not sure I can do that with at least one of the teams concerned?

A: Belgium and Azerbaijan (We want Belgium to match or better whatever Turkey do against Azerbaijan to stay 2nd)
C: Slovenia (Estonia finish 2nd if Sovenia get something against Serbia)
D: F..... (Bosnia 2nd if they don't beat F.....)
I: Lithuania and Scotland (Scotland need to equal or better the Czechs result against Lithuania to stay 2nd)

To be seeded, we'd need 3 of these groups to go our way if we draw.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Top man, yerself. Thanks.
And nicely put.

I trust you, but not those UEFA slimeballs to not not move the goalposts though.

[Closed Account]

As it stands.....

7 Portugal 32406 L
8 Croatia 32348 W
15 Ireland 27799 W
16 Bosnia and Herzegovina 27663 D
-------------------------------------------------------
18 Czech Republic 27124 W
19 Turkey 27006 W
33 Montenegro 23019
38 Estonia 20354
The Czechs could jump ahead of Bosnia as they won, but Bosnia are only drawing.

[Hibs4Ever]

Only waiting on Serbia. Even if France win we stay seeded

[BonnieShels]

Goal France.

Penalty from Nasri.

[Hibs4Ever]

We're seeded, Serbia lost

[Stuttgart88]

Maroon7 says otherwise on the other thraed. Clarify please.

[AlaskaFox]

According to UEFA, the Czech Republic have overtaken Bosnia. So our possible opponents are Turkey, Bosnia, Montenegro, or Estonia

[French Toasht]

Macroon is a scare-mongerer.

We're SEEDED.

Its Turkey, Bosnia, Montenegro or Estonia for us.

[lostinbrum]

BBC 5 Live, quoted some bloke from World Soccer magazine reckons its by UEFA rankings, putting Turkey ahead of us

[AlaskaFox]

BBC 5 Live, quoted some bloke from World Soccer magazine reckons its by UEFA rankings, putting Turkey ahead of us

He's using the June rankings. Idiot.

[abcd]

This really is ludicrous for such a major tournament. Its like the awarding of the licenses in the LOI with no-one knowing whats going on until the last minute. After the last time surely it should be 100% clear what the permutations are with regard to the play offs.

[Stuttgart88]

They probably are, it's just the punters that don't know (?).

[lostinbrum]

FAI tweet puts Ireland as seeds

[French Toasht]

WE ARE 100% SEEDS.

Anyone who says otherwise is scare-mongering.

[Stuttgart88]

Thanks.

Just reporting that SKY are saying Turkey and ourselves are vying for the last seeding.

[Irwin3]

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011

3rd seeds.

[boovidge]

Apparently the seedings will be calculated over results in the past two years?

[ArdeeBhoy]

The last 2 and a half years, allegedly.

FIFA/UEFA are morons when it comes to this sort of thing:they always have been and always will be.

The only good thing if we don't qualify, we won't have to endure their machinations for a little while.

[Stuttgart88]

Hang on. What'd be difference in seeding if ranking was decided on 2 yrs versus 2.5 years?

[Closed Account]

Hang on. What'd be difference in seeding if ranking was decided on 2 yrs versus 2.5 years?
The UEFA rankings are based on qualifying and finals for Euro 08, World Cup 10, and Euro 12, all weighted and averaged. Don't worry yourself with the calculations.
Fact is we are seeded and if we qualify, there is a small chance of getting in Pot 3 rather than Pot 4 where we are now.

[Stuttgart88]

Grand. Memories of George W. Bush being declared winner of Florida by Fox News are coming back, prompted by the FAI's announcement :).

Though I have every confidence in Toashtie's proclamations, and others'.

[Sullivinho]

Though I have every confidence in Toashtie's proclamations, and others'.

Ditto. Very glad fellas like Fench Toasht and joe_denilson are about tonight seeing as the RTE panel, SSN and apparently some guy from World Soccer magazine seem to be under the impression we're unseeded.

[Closed Account 2]

Goal France.

Penalty from Nasri.

It was a shocking decision, the refs have given Platini his qualification again:
Even if this was a foul, it was beyond penalty area.

http://pokit.etf.ba/get/548405e40ce249ae0c6ca5920477fdff.jpg

http://i52.tinypic.com/n2cvmo.jpg

Bosnia have suffered in Paris just like we did 2 years ago.

[BonnieShels]

It's not quite like us.

But hey. Who cares. We are in.

[backstothewall]

I dunno. French players knee seems ahead of his foot, and his foot is on the line, and the line is part of the area. Haven't seen it but based on the photos there I reckon thats a peno

[French Toasht]

The UEFA rankings are based on qualifying and finals for Euro 08, World Cup 10, and Euro 12, all weighted and averaged. Don't worry yourself with the calculations.
Fact is we are seeded and if we qualify, there is a small chance of getting in Pot 3 rather than Pot 4 where we are now.

We are the thirteenth best team in Europe over the last three campaigns. Considering Stan presided over one of those campaigns which was an absolute disaster, you can only imagine we'd be in the top ten over the 2 Trappatoni campaigns.

Those stats speak for themselves.

Trapattoni for president.

[bennocelt]

We are the thirteenth best team in Europe over the last three campaigns. Considering Stan presided over one of those campaigns which was an absolute disaster, you can only imagine we'd be in the top ten over the 2 Trappatoni campaigns.

Those stats speak for themselves.

Trapattoni for president.

Then lest talk about Bran Kerr's record, his stats were amazing:rolleyes:

[ArdeeBhoy]

Were they? How so?

[Stuttgart88]

Were they that different to Trap's?

Marginally worse. The biggest issue was that the relationship between Kerr, players, employer & press broke down.

[Stuttgart88]

As it stands.....

7 Portugal 32406 L
8 Croatia 32348 W
15 Ireland 27799 W
16 Bosnia and Herzegovina 27663 D
-------------------------------------------------------
18 Czech Republic 27124 W
19 Turkey 27006 W
33 Montenegro 23019
38 Estonia 20354
The Czechs could jump ahead of Bosnia as they won, but Bosnia are only drawing.

Pah, inaccurate as always :)

From UEFA.com:

Play-off draw
Pot 1 (seeded teams)
Croatia (coefficient 32.723)
Portugal (31.202)
Republic of Ireland (28.203)
Czech Republic (27.982)

Pot 2 (unseeded teams)
Turkey (27.601)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (27.199)
Montenegro (21.876)
Estonia (20.355)