The Future of the League [Archive]

shep

22/09/2011, 1:39 PM

With my own club seemingly in the sh*t,it just got me wondering how everyone else is feeling at the minute.Attendences are dropping alarmingly(oriel is like a ghost town most weeks) and i couldnt believe how bad the turnout from Bohs was the other night for a cup quarter final.Apart from Rovers...is there actually any clubs coming even close to breaking even,while remaining competative on the field???

The future seems very bad...i will continue to go...i am not having a personal moan...but am just wondering will there be a league at all,the recission seems to be hitting sponsership really hard and with revenues down it is hard to imagine the best players sticking around.

Yours in sport

A worried L.O.I fan

pineapple stu

22/09/2011, 1:44 PM

There will be a league; it may continue to decline in standard though. It's ironic that in one of the poorest seasons quality-wise for a while, we've finally gotten a team through to the group stages.

Other leagues around Europe will be the same though. The recession isn't just an Irish phenomenon.

Dodge

22/09/2011, 1:54 PM

Income's down alright. Crowds still brutal. Always have been though. We;re getting more through the gate now thatn when we won the league in 1990 with a brilliant team.

I've enjoyed this season more than most I've had following Pats, even with our various troubles.

As ever, some clubs are going to be happy with how things are going; Rovers, Derry (big crowds in first year up), Sligo (challenging for honours, good crowds), Cork (big crowds in the first), Shels (finally coming back up), Limerick (exciting moves off the field). While others can only see bad; Galway (Leeson messing them up), Dundalk (off field issues), Bray (boardroom struggles).

Others like Bohs and Pats are trying to sort themselves out off the field while tryingto be competitive. Other relatively big clubs like Harps and AThlone are in particularly bad runs at the moment but have decent infrastructure eithee behind them or planned.

I don't really think we're unlike any other league in the world. Some happy, some middling, some struggling

Mr A

22/09/2011, 2:07 PM

I think the difference at the moment as opposed to previously is that if you carried in debt to the bust you're in very serious trouble as it's incredibly difficult to trade your way out currently.

For FHFC, it's a massive battle just to keep going at all. The Donegal economy never really soared in the boom but has been absolutely decimated in the bust. Emigration of young men, the core following of any club, has reached frightening proportions. And we're struggling more than ever to get people involved in helping out.

If we didn't have the stadium project to provide hope, I think we may well have slipped beneath the waves already. It could still happen. It scares the living crap out of me to be honest.

But hopefully we'll hang in there, and with the stadium on the way should come out the other end of this stronger than we've ever been.

Dodge

22/09/2011, 2:42 PM

I should point out, I wasn't trying to downgrade any club's individual problems. most of them are very real, and very serious

A positive sign is that most clubs seem fairly determined to tackle their problems. Not as many looking to put their head in the sand and hope it works out

Guinney

22/09/2011, 3:44 PM

At the moment the league is only surviving. Its hard to ever see a time in the future when it will prosper. The poor crowds seem to be getting poorer every year. Due to their size Derry and Cork will always have decent to good sized crowds, Sligo will get the crowds when they are doing well and Rovers now have by far the biggest support. I'm not to sure on figures but Dundalk, Bohs, Drogheda's and Brays crowds have been poor this year. UCDs will always be minuscule. For a cities and even counties as big as Limerick and Galway they should be getting much larger crowds, even Waterford should be getting in more.

So basically what I'm trying to say is that for whatever reason in a football mad country, the fans are not coming out to support their local clubs. Alot might be into the GAA or even rugby and thats fair enough. But there are to many barstoolers and event junkies in Ireland. To many who are quick to criticise the league without giving it a chance.

Its all been said before but the league needs to change. The FAI need to put more effort into the structures of the league and creating a better image of it as a whole. Personally I feel the league is to small, a 16 team league is needed. Its like ground hog day at times playing the same teams over and over. Only problem is there may not be enough teams to have a strong Premier division and a similar sized First division. In my opinion joining the the Northern and Southern leagues is the only way forward. Its has mentioned before and is probably unlikely due to the many difficulties (co-operation between IFA & FAI, lose of European places, increased trouble, etc) but for me these potential problems would be outweighed by the benefits of joining the two struggling leagues together.

legendz

22/09/2011, 4:46 PM

freewheel30

22/09/2011, 4:59 PM

Nesta99

22/09/2011, 5:12 PM

Guinney you are relatively new to LoI, what was it that got ye up to Oriel? I myself had little choice as I 'inherited' supporting DFC growing up practically under the floodlights. Ive often felt that many people when they give LoI a chance are pleasantly surprised, the bug bites and then continue to attend matches! A lot of my old college mates over from England always enjoyed going to games when visiting, they were a lot less critical of the League (standards etc) than us ourselves. LoI fans seem to be very easily disillusioned with their clubs - couple of bad games and its 'f*ck that i'm not coming back'. If these 'fallen' fans returned attendances would dramatically up. It is very annoying that every second person asks how the game went walking through Dundalk after a match when seeing ye wearing colours so there is an interest.

Just out of interest question for other posters here. How did you get in to LoI eg dragged along by parents, simple curiosity, following mates etc. What keeps you going back apart from some wierd masochistic streak? Very open questions i know - i simply grew up 5mins from Oriel so it was always just a feature of life heading to games on a Sunday/Thursday, it was almost habit..

This Irish inferiority complex, driven by the media, that causes our obsession with the English/Scots leagues is an infuriating blight. Armchair republicans wearing liverpool shirts etc always amuse me!

The whole all-Ireland league debate has been done to death i know but the big deal with the Nordies i know, is that the FAI is the break-away association and as such must dissolve prior to a 32 county league, its a principled thing.

Candystripe

22/09/2011, 5:15 PM

As ever, some clubs are going to be happy with how things are going; Rovers, Derry (big crowds in first year up),

Dodge I don't think our crowds are up very much at all.

The atmosphere was a lot better last year and we had some really good gates compared to this year.

Lim till i die

22/09/2011, 5:21 PM

For a cities and even counties as big as Limerick and Galway they should be getting much larger crowds, even Waterford should be getting in more.

Limerick senior football is SEVENTEEN years in the First Division.

Our ground has 200 seats and no covered standing.

Munster play about two miles away.

I'm happy enough with our crowds to be honest!

Poor facilities at grounds and poor European results were two of the big things that drove the crowds away - nowadays those things aren't really a problem but still the crowds aren't interested.

Facilities, bar one or two notable exceptions, are still stone age compared to anything across channell and indeed compared to a lot of GAA grounds.

European results are never going to be of a high enough standard for them to be relevant as to whether people will support League Of Ireland.

Future wise, clubs need financial backers if they are to make any headway. These days they aren't forthcoming. IMHO over the next five years, the league will continue to stagnate at best, crowds will level out at about 50% lower than the halcyon days of the mid noughties, some clubs will die, or at the very least go in to long term comas and the standard will settle somewhere a nice bit above the Welsh League and a nice bit below the Scottish League. Which is probably where it should be.

Rovers will dominate domestically for the next decade unless there's something very wrong, with an occasional challenge from a provincial team spending far too much money. (Come on Limerick!!!!)

Lim till i die

22/09/2011, 5:28 PM

Just out of interest question for other posters here. How did you get in to LoI eg dragged along by parents, simple curiosity, following mates etc.

My dad dragged me until I was old enough to go on my own......... then the ****er stopped going!!

I've started to drag him back since he got laid off, thank you Michael Dell. :ball:

What keeps you going back apart from some wierd masochistic streak?

Keeping the family tradition going.

By Jesus, I'll be damned if my son doesn't suffer the way I've suffered!!

born2bwild

22/09/2011, 6:04 PM

Just out of interest question for other posters here. How did you get in to LoI eg dragged along by parents, simple curiosity, following mates etc. What keeps you going back apart from some wierd masochistic streak? Very open questions i know - i simply grew up 5mins from Oriel so it was always just a feature of life heading to games on a Sunday/Thursday, it was almost habit..

I went along to a Bray - Fingal play off in the absolute p1ssings a couple of years ago, got pneumonia and hooked on live footie. Hope I don't outlive my current local club. I honestly don't know what I was doing with my life before this. I don't know if I fit the profile of a typical LoI fan, generally speaking, but I suppose I do in one respect: I love football.

Guinney

22/09/2011, 7:20 PM

Guinney you are relatively new to LoI, what was it that got ye up to Oriel? I myself had little choice as I 'inherited' supporting DFC growing up practically under the floodlights. Ive often felt that many people when they give LoI a chance are pleasantly surprised, the bug bites and then continue to attend matches! A lot of my old college mates over from England always enjoyed going to games when visiting, they were a lot less critical of the League (standards etc) than us ourselves. LoI fans seem to be very easily disillusioned with their clubs - couple of bad games and its 'f*ck that i'm not coming back'. If these 'fallen' fans returned attendances would dramatically up. It is very annoying that every second person asks how the game went walking through Dundalk after a match when seeing ye wearing colours so there is an interest.

Just out of interest question for other posters here. How did you get in to LoI eg dragged along by parents, simple curiosity, following mates etc. What keeps you going back apart from some wierd masochistic streak? Very open questions i know - i simply grew up 5mins from Oriel so it was always just a feature of life heading to games on a Sunday/Thursday, it was almost habit..

Well like yourself I live beside Oriel, for me though I literally live across the road. I wouldn't say I am relatively new to the league, I always had an interest just not as strong as interest as I have now. It would be nearly impossible for me not to have some sort of interest, as on match night my road is full of cars parked and people walking up to Oriel. Sometimes the feckers block my driveway. But after I spent a year in Cork for college about 5 years ago I started going to as many matched as I possibly could. Basically I started hanging around with a bunch of lads who always went to Dundalk matches, enjoyed myself, got a couple of jerseys, had a few pints in the Lilywhite Lounge, realised this is much better than watching football on the TV and caught the bug. I have tried and failed to bring other mates over to Oriel but after one or two matches they lose interest.

legendz

22/09/2011, 7:45 PM

Poor facilities at grounds and poor European results were two of the big things that drove the crowds away - nowadays those things aren't really a problem but still the crowds aren't interested. People's "love" for English clubs is very deeply ingrained - but I think there's also just a primal fear on the part of some people. Going from my experience of trying to get people to go I sometimes reckon they think they're going to get "noticed" as a newcomer to the ground and that they'll be laughed at or attacked or something. :cat: Maybe people just don't think they have the "right" to be there :confused:

I don't work in marketing or anything like that but it'll take at least 6 weeks exposure to the domestic game for someone like that to start looking at the domestic game on a more regular basis. I wouldn't see it as a lost battle. If clubs have the right structure and the right people in place, clubs can establish themselves more within their regions. There' no quick fix and a lot of hard work.

legendz

22/09/2011, 7:52 PM

Just out of interest question for other posters here. How did you get in to LoI eg dragged along by parents, simple curiosity, following mates etc. What keeps you going back apart from some wierd masochistic streak? Very open questions i know - i simply grew up 5mins from Oriel so it was always just a feature of life heading to games on a Sunday/Thursday, it was almost habit..

This Irish inferiority complex, driven by the media, that causes our obsession with the English/Scots leagues is an infuriating blight. Armchair republicans wearing liverpool shirts etc always amuse me!

The whole all-Ireland league debate has been done to death i know but the big deal with the Nordies i know, is that the FAI is the break-away association and as such must dissolve prior to a 32 county league, its a principled thing.

I come from a region about as far away from a LoI club as you will get in this country. I've always have had an interest in world football. While I like the domestic game, I watch other leagues as well.
RTE TV were good in the early 90's in showing highlights of league games on a Saturday morning. RTE radio gave good coverage of the games as well. The three way play-off one year stands out. My general interest in the game of football was LoI on Saturday mornings and Italian football on Monday nights. I keep an eye out across the water as well but I don't make any apologies for that. It's not an obsession though and to be honest Gaelic Football is my bigger interest.

It'll be great to see a Kerry club part of the LoI, it'll be fantastic.

Martinho II

22/09/2011, 7:55 PM

I got into the loi bug twenty years when me and sorbo the greek and close friends on sundays used to cycle to town matches in abbeycartron. the same lads that were goin back then are the same lads that do be in section o! the recession hasnt dramatically reduced our attendances as they were crap the season we went down anyway!

Charlie Darwin

22/09/2011, 8:09 PM

It'll be great to see a Kerry club part of the LoI, it'll be fantastic.
What's the story with Tralee, out of interest? Are there any plans to apply for a league spot?

legendz

22/09/2011, 8:20 PM

What's the story with Tralee, out of interest? Are there any plans to apply for a league spot?

http://www.kerryman.ie/sport/gaelic-football/tralee-dynamos-gearing-up-for-u19-league-while-application-to-join-airtricity-league-division-one-has-been-lodged-2820294.html

Tralee Dynamos gearing up for U-19 League while application to join Airtricity League Division One has been lodged

TRALEE Dynamos boss Noel White says that the club are presently making preparations for the under19 league which kicks off on August 28.

The structure has been formulated and Tralee Dynamos will be carrying the Kerry flag in the competition and are in the Southern section in a seven-team division.

The teams in their group are Athlone Town, Longford Town, FC Carlow, Cobh Ramblers, Galway United, Limerick FC and Tralee Dynamos.

There are two other divisions Premier and Northern with 12 teams in each group.

The league will consist of three rounds so Dynamos will have 18 games in total.

"At present we are drawing up a panel of players and signing on a few new players also.

There are other players that want to sign up but they can't until the Kerry District League programe is concluded," Noel White explained.

" We see the under-19 league as an opportunity to nurture the younger players and get them to progress to the senior side.

"We have also made an application to join Division One of the Airtricity League next season as the Newstalk A championship will be terminated at the end of the season.

"We will have to meet the requirements set out by the League of Ireland to obtain a club license.

"The big obstacle in our way is financing the team if they are allowed into Division One.

"We are disappointed at the poor attendances at our games and we will have to do everything we can to get more people out to view our games," Mr White said.

"All players should aspire to playing the game at the highest level and as we are the only club providing League of Ireland football in Kerry should have the support of all Kerry clubs involved in the game.

"We will have to upgrade our facilities at Cahermoneen with new seating in the stand and also get the flood lights up and running for evenings games.

"We are committed to the challenge ahead of us and do our utmost to meet the requirements asked of us. After that it is up to The League of Ireland to delegate the clubs to go into Division One. The situation at the moment is that two clubs, which include Tralee Dynamos, will be allowed enter Division One but there will be four clubs seeking it.

"We are under no illusions regarding what a big step this would be but we believe we can rise a step further on the ladder and bring Division 1 football to Kerry," he added.

Charlie Darwin

22/09/2011, 8:22 PM

Cool, thanks. Pity about the attendances though.

Martinho II

22/09/2011, 8:57 PM

I dont think that groupin in the under19 league is right as longford town played sligo rovers away last week? I would like to see some new teams in it like Tralee Dynamoes whose manager is ex LTFC coach Noel White and FC Carlow to freshen it up a bit.

legendz

22/09/2011, 10:09 PM

CraftyToePoke

23/09/2011, 2:38 AM

Just out of interest question for other posters here. How did you get in to LoI eg dragged along by parents, simple curiosity, following mates etc. What keeps you going back apart from some wierd masochistic streak?

It started for me watching Newcastle West in their brief time at LOI standard when I was very young, I would see their results in the six o'clock news along with the countrys big sides and I remember wanting to see this for myself, I pestered my dad into bringing me and after a 3-4 FAI Cup game Vs Harps I was hooked, I thought it was the most exciting thing I had ever seen. I remember when Derry came as well, with all their air horns and flags, and our FAI Cup run being ended by non league St Francis in the year they made the final, and the rivalry of sorts with Cobh. Id meet several of my friends there and we would have kickaround after, great memories.

When the club dropped out of LOI and ended up dropping to a level I would later play at myself, naturally, interest waned and nearest other LOI side, Limerick began to get my attention, and I have watched Limerick in several of their homes around the city since and always enjoyed it. I will hopefully finally get to see them in The Markets Field next season. Its funny, all these years later, I now live in England but my dad, who I used to have to drag to Ballygowan Park in the late 80's to watch NCW, is now a regular at Jackman Park in Limerick and will text me the updates each Friday night as it happens. He would have been more of a GAA man at one point.

I have brought some bar stooler friends along at times but they never developed any affinity, even when they have been pleasantly surprised and well entertained, but I suppose LOI does not provide the reflective glory and super slow motion multi angle replay carry on that Celtic and the EPL sides give them, that sense of occasion, however artifically hyped and vacuous it may be.

I have always maintained there was real talent in LOI and the recent years movement of lads to cross channel sides has confirmed something most of us knew for a long time, but its also something which sustains my interest now, the opportunity to see the next Coleman, Doyle or Gaynor in their early days.

And the final deciding factor when planning the visit home is the Limerick fixtures, always, no Ryanair booking completed untill the home game is confirmed.

srfc1928

23/09/2011, 9:39 AM

As Mr A said about donegal, Sligo got no benefit from the Celtic tiger at all.
But now with the recession the NW area is really struggling.
Emmigration/ migration has had a negative effect on attendances and revenue,
we lose so many fans through this, and of course unemployment.

Now to dissappoint the shams conspiracy theory that we are in debt, we're not.
Things are extremley tight, and we survive from month to month like we always have for the last 82 years, always paying our debts.
Since our inception we've nearly always had to have full time pro's on our books to have a team due to our location so its nothing new for us.
You can still have full timers and be fiancially frugle, we've built a club around it.

legendz

23/09/2011, 9:52 AM

Cool, thanks. Pity about the attendances though.

Yeah it's a pity. The A Championship never caught the public's attention really. It was a good idea by the FAI but could have been implemented better. I mean like, last year there were 5 teams Cobh, Carlow, Tralee, Tullamore and Castlebar. It'd have been better if all these teams were playing against each other than a split. The Harps lads have made good points regards travel but Tralee to Castlebar would've been the furthest and manageable. There would've been enough optional reserve teams to make a decent league, the likes of Limerick, UCD and Shelbourne did ok at that level. There wasn't any onus on Limerick and Shels when they were involved.

Anyways it's neither here not there now, the clubs themselves never really lobbied for anything.

Dodge

23/09/2011, 10:54 AM

I hope the league futures lies in being expanded from the current 21 clubs to 24. Cobh, Tralee and Carlow have been working hard these last few years. The league should open the door for these 3 clubs.

As the thread is, primarily, about clubs struggling. How do you think these 3 clusbw ill help the existing ones?

Dodge

23/09/2011, 11:01 AM

There would've been enough optional reserve teams to make a decent league, the likes of Limerick, UCD and Shelbourne did ok at that level. There wasn't any onus on Limerick and Shels when they were involved.

Limerick competed in 3 of the 4 years, never going above 6th in the group tables

Shels only competed in one league, finishing 6th in their group

Even UCD, who have always treated reserve and underage leagues with great respect didn’t enter when they didn’t have to.

Cork and Derry dropped their A team when they weren’t obliged to have it (and Dundalk didn’t have it for their year in the first either).

The only club that put out an A league when they didn’t have to for each of the 4 years was Finn Harps.

legendz

23/09/2011, 12:00 PM

As the thread is, primarily, about clubs struggling. How do you think these 3 clusbw ill help the existing ones?

This thread is about the future of the league as well. The attitude above is part of the problem with the league. There seems to be a reluctance to welcome or invite new regions into the league. The league is not going to have a strong footing nationally if more regions are not involved. At least with the A Championship there could be no argument that the league was a closed shop.

legendz

23/09/2011, 12:02 PM

Limerick competed in 3 of the 4 years, never going above 6th in the group tables

Shels only competed in one league, finishing 6th in their group

Even UCD, who have always treated reserve and underage leagues with great respect didn’t enter when they didn’t have to.

Cork and Derry dropped their A team when they weren’t obliged to have it (and Dundalk didn’t have it for their year in the first either).

The only club that put out an A league when they didn’t have to for each of the 4 years was Finn Harps.

I wouldn't blame Shels or anyone for pulling out this year when the league was ending anyway. You could well be right that no reserve team would get involved but can we say that for sure?

pineapple stu

23/09/2011, 12:14 PM

This thread is about the future of the league as well. The attitude above is part of the problem with the league. There seems to be a reluctance to welcome or invite new regions into the league.
You've completely misrepresented Dodge's post. He asked how inviting new clubs - like Mervue or Salthill - would help the existing ones. He didn't show any reluctance to invite new clubs or regions. You, however, said you hoped the league's future lay this way. The likes of Mervue, Salthill and Wexford - with the greatest of respect to them - haven't improved any other club in the league.

legendz

23/09/2011, 12:39 PM

As the thread is, primarily, about clubs struggling. How do you think these 3 clusbw ill help the existing ones?

Ok, I'll answer this question. If these clubs are invited, the league will have full representation nationally of regions that want to be part of the league. All other areas not involved cannot have complaints when they have the same opportunity to work at A Championship level towards being fully involved in the League of Ireland. From there at the end of the day it is down to every club to get their own structures right. Limerick have been doing good work in the community in recent years. While not all clubs are going to be lucky with the backing Limerick have, getting involved in the community like that has to be central to what clubs are about.

Personally, it'll be fantastic to see 8 or 9 of the current first division clubs coming to Tralee next year.

pineapple stu

23/09/2011, 1:04 PM

Ok, I'll answer this question. If these clubs are invited, the league will have full representation nationally of regions that want to be part of the league. All other areas not involved cannot have complaints when they have the same opportunity to work at A Championship level towards being fully involved in the League of Ireland.
None of that will have any bearing on UCD.

legendz

23/09/2011, 1:11 PM

None of that will have any bearing on UCD.

If Tralee are in the league, it'll increase the league's profile in Kerry. A good number of people from Kerry will go to UCD. They might be more encouraged to take in UCD's games when they are in the capital then as well as a result.

Mr A

23/09/2011, 1:13 PM

I get what you're saying legendz and agree with letting in new clubs.

But if anything they slightly hurt the clubs already there- clubs that are unknown in League of Ireland terms are a hard sell in terms of getting people interested. (Fortunately we get around that problem by being completely pish and putting punters off via our own ineptitude rather than the unknown nature of the opposition.)

pineapple stu

23/09/2011, 1:15 PM

If Tralee are in the league, it'll increase the league's profile in Kerry. A good number of people from Kerry will go to UCD. They might be more encouraged to take in UCD's games when they are in the capital then as well as a result.
Didn't happen with Wexford. Won't happen with any other new club. And that's taking into account that we may be a special case because we're a college.

I've no problems with other clubs joining the league, but there's no point saying they'll revolutionise things.

culloty82

23/09/2011, 1:17 PM

Like Wexford, the three clubs, if selected, will hopefully prove that it is fully sustainable to run a League of Ireland club on an amateur, locally-centred basis, driven by a solid youth structure from the earliest ages right up to senior level. That, at the very least, would be the lesson for existing clubs, and if an added benefit is greater interest in and affinity with the League through a more "national" representation, then that can only boost attendances.

legendz

23/09/2011, 1:17 PM

I see what you're saying Mr A. I think as a once off though if the league is revamped to being two divisions of 12, the new clubs coming in will be a breath of fresh air and give some new energy and buzz to the league. From there then the league needs a stable structure and time to bed in. There will be slight hurt initially but in the long run I think it'll be looked back on as a good move for the league.

legendz

23/09/2011, 1:19 PM

Didn't happen with Wexford. Won't happen with any other new club. And that's taking into account that we may be a special case because we're a college.

I've no problems with other clubs joining the league, but there's no point saying they'll revolutionise things.

I'm not suggesting they will revolutionalise anything. As I suggested in my last post, I just think this once as a one off it can work.

pineapple stu

23/09/2011, 1:20 PM

As I suggested in my last post, I just think this once as a one off it can work.
Define "work"?

osarusan

23/09/2011, 1:25 PM

As I suggested in my last post, I just think this once as a one off it can work.
But it isn't a one off. Lots of clubs have joined the league, and none of them have 'been a breath of fresh air' for the league. Each club that joins will become, instantly, just another club in the league.

legendz

23/09/2011, 1:31 PM

Expanding the league to two divisions of 12 will be a once off. It'll bring more symmetry to the divisions where they can have the same format and numbers of games. The new clubs will need time to bed in but in the long-term it'll work in terms that the league will have a better spread nationally, all regions wanting to be involved will be involved and I think myself it'll be great for the league as a whole while it's down to the individual clubs themselves to have their own houses in order.

Macy

23/09/2011, 1:31 PM

Píssing about with the number of teams won't make any difference. I also think the setanta cup shows that adding teams from the North won't do anything, on it's own. There may be some case to be made for radical reform - one proposal that I thought had some merit was as two even conferences (north/south or east/west) played on a home and away, with one cross conference series of games, and then a play off for the championships. But I wouldn't be convinced it'd do that much bar a short term shot in the arm. It would give teams space to sort themselves out though.

As ever, the bottom line is that teams have got to start budgeting based on the worst case scenario rather than the best. I don't believe it'll effect the standard that much - where the feck do we think the players we have are going to go?