Preliminary Draw of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil

[Deckydee]

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminarydraw/index.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)

Hi,

Does anyone know what station this will be shown on and at what time?

I watched the Euro 2012 draw on Eurosport, I guess it could be the same?

[tetsujin1979]

It's on RTE2 at 8:15: http://www.rte.ie/ten/listings/16399856_tv_World_Cup_2014_Draw

[BonnieShels]

That's my Saturday night sorted.

[Deckydee]

Thank you sir!

Excellent! - I am looking forward to this now.

[IsMiseSean]

This is already in the rankings thread, but I dont see any harm putting it in here too.
Pots according to the football rankings website. http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/06/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-uefa-pots_24.html


Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece

Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia

Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary

Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Lithuania, Albania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland

Pot 5: Armenia, Finland, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands

Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

[Kingdom]

Really excited about this (even if somewhat confused why this is happening so early)

Looking at the pots, as usual there is some horrible possibilites, but more than normal there are some really nice ones too.

New thread so not going to jinx it by saying who I'd like us to avoid, but if we could avoid any derbies (either with teams or coaches ;-)), and have a bit of Luxembourg, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Norway, that would be great. If you're listening up there Batman, please make it so!

[AlaskaFox]

Really excited about this (even if somewhat confused why this is happening so early)

They're doing all the draws together. Think the Asian campaign starts this year.

[mypost]

:sun:
Greece
Serbia
Albania
Macedonia
Malta

:angry3:
Spain
France
Romania
Cyprus
Kazachstan

Croatia
Slovenia
Austria
Moldova
Luxembourg

:smile:

[Fixer82]

From Pot 1 I'll take Italy or Norway, Pot 2 - Slovenia, Albania, Latvia, Lichtenstein thereinafter respectively

[Kingdom]

They're doing all the draws together. Think the Asian campaign starts this year.

The Asian campaign has already started. There are prelims this week with some big countries involved (all bar the Koreas, Australia, China and Japan I think)

[Kingdom]

:sun:
Greece
Serbia
Albania
Macedonia
Malta

:angry3:
Spain
France
Romania
Cyprus
Kazachstan

Croatia
Slovenia
Austria
Moldova
Luxembourg

:smile:

That sunny group wouldn't be the handiest on the field either. The bad group is very bad.

[mypost]

From Pot 1 I'll take Italy or Norway

Italy or Norway? Italy or Norway??

Italy are through before the draw is complete. We could be fighting with Norway for the final play-off spot.

Again.

[Crosby87]

Kerr is just praying he gets a chance to take key points off us in front of the nice 2,000 fan crowd in the Faroes.

[BonnieShels]

I don't think he cares.
Delighted with his role in moving the Faeroes up a pot. That it contributes to the fall of Wales is also welcome.

[Noelys Guitar]

We qualified for 1990, 1994 and 2002 coming out of possibly the toughest of groups each time. I would love us to get Spain as our first seed (as in 90 and 94). After that I don't care who we get from Pots2/4/5/6.

[christo]

Delighted with his role in moving the Faeroes up a pot. That it contributes to the fall of Wales is also welcome.

My thoughts exactly

I'd be looking at Greece, Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Estonia and Wales as the perfect draw.

How does the qualifying work this time round?

[Wolfie]

My thoughts exactly

I'd be looking at Greece, Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Estonia and Wales as the perfect draw.

World Cup qualifying rules dictate that the cohort of teams above are reserved for England.

[Yard of Pace]

The Asian campaign has already started. There are prelims this week with some big countries involved (all bar the Koreas, Australia, China and Japan I think)

Carribean lads are well underway too. Still digesting the aggregate hammering The US Virgin Islands gave the British Virgin Islands a couple of weeks ago....

I don't get why everyone thinks Kerr would love to take points off us. He's a proud Irishman as far as I can see and I don't think he'd ever hope to hinder our chances to qualify for something, despite what happened with him and the FAI. He's not that bitter, imo.

[tetsujin1979]

Carribean lads are well underway too. Still digesting the aggregate hammering The US Virgin Islands gave the British Virgin Islands a couple of weeks ago....

I don't get why everyone thinks Kerr would love to take points off us. He's a proud Irishman as far as I can see and I don't think he'd ever hope to hinder our chances to qualify for something, despite what happened with him and the FAI. He's not that bitter, imo.
Are you serious? I struggle to think of a single article he wrote since leaving the job that wasn't laced with poison

[AlaskaFox]

Carribean lads are well underway too. Still digesting the aggregate hammering The US Virgin Islands gave the British Virgin Islands a couple of weeks ago.....

Just has a look at the results, Aruba v Saint Lucia ended 6-6 on aggregate after two 4-2 wins. There's something you don't see every day.

[ArdeeBhoy]

If we're worried about Kerr or the Faroes, :rolleyes: then we might as well withdraw, FFS.


Even I'm not that pessimistic.

[Yard of Pace]

Are you serious? I struggle to think of a single article he wrote since leaving the job that wasn't laced with poison

His match previews/reviews in the Irish Times often did betray some bitterness, that's true. But he always came across as a fan of the Irish team and wanted us to do well. I'd say his success with the Faroes has erased that bitterness a fair amount. He got a raw deal from the FAI and from the fans and he was entitled to feel peeved. I think he's restored his reputation now somewhat and I don't for a second think that he'd really really hope to take points off us, if we ended up in their group. (Of course, if we're dropping points to the Faroes we'd probably not be good enough to qualify anyway)

[culloty82]

Don't forget the mammoth 16-game South American round robin will take two years to complete also. Interesting that Montenegro have climbed all the way from the last to the second pot, I'd happily take Norway, Slovenia, Albania, Faroes and San Marino.

[Hibs4Ever]

Would like:

Norway
Slovakia
N.Ireland
Estonia
San Marino

[CraftyToePoke]

I don't for a second think that he'd really really hope to take points off us

I would disagree there, Id say he would relish the chance, and it would boost his standing further, which will be his priority these days, not our campaign. And if he managed it, good luck to him, as sore as I'd be about it.

[Sullivinho]

Would like:

Norway
Slovakia
N.Ireland
Estonia
San Marino

I'd take that, even though Estonia seem to have improved of late. Two competitive games against the North of Ireland would be tasty. Wouldn't fear Greece from the top pot either. Ditto for Kerr's Faroes. I'd worry more about a Staunton-fueled Liechtenstein.

[mypost]

We qualified for 1990, 1994 and 2002 coming out of possibly the toughest of groups each time. I would love us to get Spain as our first seed (as in 90 and 94).

We got out of the 1990 group by 4 points and 12 goals. It wasn't the hardest group.

In saying that, I don't want Spain this time.

[Closed Account 2]

I've an excel sheet that does a random draw, if anyone wants it I can send via email / pm.

Here are the three last random draws I did:

Croatia
Sweden
REP IRELAND
Albania
Macedonia
Kazakhstan

Italy
Turkey
REP IRELAND
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Malta

Netherlands
Serbia
REP IRELAND
Poland
Cyprus
Wales

First seeds I'd like Norway, Greece or Croatia, even Italy at a push. I really wouldnt want Germany and to a lesser extent Holland.

2nd pot I'd take Slovenija and Denmark, I wouldnt want Russia or France (except for revenge on the latter), possibly not Serbia but the rest I would be happy enough with.

As were in the 3rd block I'm glad we avoid Switzerland and Israel as we dont have a great history against them. Bosnia and Belgium are two teams I'm happy to avoid as well. In pot 4 I'd take Lithuania or Scotland, of the rest I'd want to avoid Romania but wouldnt be devastated if we got them.

In pot 5 I wouldnt want Armenia or Finland and in Pot 6 Wales or Iceland, but you would hope to be able to beat all of the pot 5/6 teams anyway.

[Crosby87]

Is Borat the manager of Kazakhstan? My sister. She is prostitute.

[Deckydee]

To be honest I would love to get England. I have nothing against them personally, I visit there on a regular basis and could never ever say anything bad about them.

We've had some cracking matches over the years and there is always that something (as the french say, a certain "je ne sais quoi") when we play them.

My group:

England
Sweden
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
Lithuania
Azerbaijan
Luxembourg

[Closed Account 2]

I don't want England or the North, not because I am worried about the technical ability of either team (in terms of ability they are pretty much in the middle of pots 1 and 4). I don't want a scenario where either of them could lose against another contender in the last set of fixtures.

For instance, if we were in the following group (England, Sweden, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta) and, with the final round of games to go, say England were 6 points clear (already won the group), and we were one point behind Sweden, and the last set of fixtures were Sweden v England and Ireland v Latvia, England could put out a weak team in Stockholm meaning irrespective of our result we couldnt catch the Swedes. England did something similar in Dnepetropetrovsk in 2009 - they lost to Ukraine meaning Croatia couldnt catch Ukraine.

Or another example, if the group was (Greece, Slovakia, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Latvia) and we were neck-and-neck with Greece and Slovakia going into the last set of games (like we were with the Swiss and Israel a few years ago) and the last fixtures were Northern Ireland v Slovakia, Ireland v Greece, the North might lose heavily to Slovakia and we wouldnt be able to catch them irrespective of our result with Greece).

I think it's better to avoid playing teams with whom we have sensitive relationships in the group stage.

[Noelys Guitar]

[QUOTE=mypost;1512985]We got out of the 1990 group by 4 points and 12 goals. It wasn't the hardest group.

In saying that, I don't want Spain this time.[/QUOTE

1990 3 teams that had qualified for the 86 world cup (Hungary, NI, Spain)and Malta made it a very tough group. Qualified

1994 we had Spain, Denmark, NI, Lithuania and Latvia. Qualified

1998 Easiest group possible of Romania, Iceland, Macedonia, Lithuania, Lichenstein. Did not qualify.

2002 Holland, Portugal, Estonia, Cyprus, Andorra. Qualified.

We always do better in a tough group. I would be quite happy with Spain and a very good second/third/fourth seeds as they tend to take points off one another. We are a very hard team to beat and are quite capable of going through a group unbeaten.

[AlaskaFox]

My random draw:
Croatia
Slovakia
IRELAND
Bulgaria
Azerbaijan
Malta

Would take that. Actually I'd probably be happy with 90% of the draws, but I am an eternal optimistic.

[SkStu]

Is Borat the manager of Kazakhstan? My sister. She is prostitute.

2006 called - it wants its joke back... ;) ;)

[Kingdom]

I've an excel sheet that does a random draw, if anyone wants it I can send via email / pm.

Here are the three last random draws I did......


dear chris....please, please stop doing random draws, they're horrid and if they come through, I'll cry a little. Send me the link!

[Cymro]

Probably for the first time ever, people will not want to get us in the draw, if only because we're in pot 6. Although Liechtenstein are known for springing the odd shock so maybe they'll be more feared than us.

I hope we get a top team like Spain so I can watch some high-quality football in this next campaign. Northern Ireland and Estonia from the 4th and 5th pots would be nice and should see us finish top 4 in the group. Montenegro would also be good as I reckon we could beat them despite the good run of form they're having now.

[Bungle]

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece

Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia

Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary

Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Lithuania, Albania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland

Pot 5: Armenia, Finland, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands

Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino[/QUOTE]

I think we're going to get Greece (happy days), Serbia (very tough 2nd seed), Poland (very tough 4th seed), Armenia (tough 5th seed) and San Marino. Pure random guesswork but every time I do predictions of our groups for qualifying I get about 2 teams right!!

All in all if we got a group like that I'd be fairly happy, though I would worry that it might be like our group for 2006 where there is alot of draws and we end up with a low points total and a nightmare scenario that we come 2nd and with the lowest points total of all 2nd place teams we don't even make the playoffs.

[Crosby87]

Just asking why would anyone need a excel sheet to do this? Can't you just eye up the pots and get a general idea for the possibilities in like 2 seconds?

[DannyInvincible]

Just asking why would anyone need a excel sheet to do this? Can't you just eye up the pots and get a general idea for the possibilities in like 2 seconds?

Hehe, indeed. Isn't it all terribly pointless as the draw is done at random anyway? A bit like a BBC headline about the draw yesterday, I kid you not: "England could face France in 2014 World Cup qualifying (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/14318611.stm)".

Yes, England could face France, as well as a possible selection of 43 other teams.

[gastric]

This article while possibly a bit sensational in content says a lot about where Irish soccer is at. I have put in here as I wasn't sure where else to put it.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/generosity-2834709.html

[Closed Account 2]

Just asking why would anyone need a excel sheet to do this? Can't you just eye up the pots and get a general idea for the possibilities in like 2 seconds?

The thing is a human is unlikely to reliably pick a random selection when they have an interest in the outcome, there will always be an underlying bias, even when someone (attempts to) randomly pick outcomes. Psychologically speaking, any fan is likely to be wanting either a glamour draw (e.g. Spain, France, etc) or an "easy" draw (e.g. Greece, Slovenia, etc) or a pessimistic draw (Holland, Russia etc) or some other set of criteria depending on their outlook. There are also other constraints, for instance there is a chance of being in a 5 team group (with the 6th seed being blank), yet due to human bias noone has really considered this, a blank team is similar to a "no answer" or "n/a" in a survey and with human input this will be under-selected.


Hehe, indeed. Isn't it all terribly pointless as the draw is done at random anyway? A bit like a BBC headline about the draw yesterday, I kid you not: "England could face France in 2014 World Cup qualifying (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/14318611.stm)".

Yes, England could face France, as well as a possible selection of 43 other teams.

The actual probability is more subtle than say 5 in 44 (France + the other "43 other teams"). As the teams are set into six pots, once a team is drawn from one of those pots the remaining 8 teams cannot go into that group. For instance England could draw France, Bosnia, Poland, Cyprus, San Marino. But once France had been drawn, they could then no longer draw Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia or Slovakia.

Also as mentioned above, using 5 in 44 (5 being seeding pots 2-6; 44 being the other 43 + France) is slightly wrong anyway, since England can draw a blank team in pot 6 (i.e. be in a 5 team group instead of a full 6 team group), so mathematically "Blank" needs to be a team, so it needs the baseline needs to be 45 not 44.

[pineapple stu]

A bit like a BBC headline about the draw yesterday, I kid you not: "England could face France in 2014 World Cup qualifying (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/14318611.stm)".

Yes, England could face France, as well as a possible selection of 43 other teams.
In fairness, how often has that been the case? England and France would usually be first seeds. The headline - which was really about the seeding confirmation - was pointing out that France have dropped to second seeds.

[jbyrne]

This article while possibly a bit sensational in content says a lot about where Irish soccer is at. I have put in here as I wasn't sure where else to put it.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/generosity-2834709.html

i dont have a problem with a 3 man team going to the draw. i am sure good contacts and relationships with other associations are formed at these things. I am also sure that there are other events staged around the draw that we should be well represented at.

as for the shower issue and delaneys salary.... i 100% agree with the article.

[Crosby87]

Is it really that big of a surprise that France dropped to anyone who even remotely follows Football though Pineapple? Half the team didn't even want to play in the World Cup.

[pineapple stu]

It's just a way to grab attention to the article is all. Think it's being over-criticised.

[Junior]

Is it really that big of a surprise that France dropped to anyone who even remotely follows Football though Pineapple? Half the team didn't even want to play in the World Cup.

I think most football observers (who dont religously follow the seedings thread :D) may be surprised that Norway are in Pot1 and Montenegro in Pot2, I was. And I wouldnt have been surprised if France had remained in Pot1 to be honest.

Reading the seedings thread over the years - quite often a trend in recent results doesnt appear to reflect itself in the seedings because of the various weightings applied to historical results.

[CraftyToePoke]

I reckon other countries are out there, looking at the pots and hoping they can avoid us as their third seed opponent, us and France as second seeds would be one to be avoided by most, even top pot dwellers. Including ourselves avoiding France hopefully. I have a feeling we are going to get a real beast of a draw, our present group could have been much tougher so we are due a downturn and I have a feeling England and ourselves will be paired together, its been a while. Its time.

[hoops1]

How did Norway manage to get into pot 1?

[CraftyToePoke]

How did Norway manage to get into pot 1?

All done with mirrors apparently.

[Torn-Ado]

Norway
Montenegro
Ireland
Northern Ireland/Georgia
Faroe islands
San Marino