FAO First Division Stat Fans

[Lim till i die]

With the First Division only having thirty games this year and Limerick making a pretty disappointing start myself and one of the lads have been fiddling around with the stats to figure out how many points would be required to be in the promotion shake up.

Averaging out the 2005-2010 season spread over thirty games gives us:

1st - 61 points
2nd -59 points
3rd - 55 points

Leaving out 2005 because the First Division was ridiculously competitive that year for some reason (51 points would have won you the league were it over 30 games.) the figures give you:

1st - 63 points
2nd - 61 points
3rd - 57 points

Now looking at these figures you could argue that with one round of games left in the first series Shels on 22 points look in a really strong position, beat Cork and they only need to win twelve of their remaining twenty games to be safe.

You could also possibly argue Limerick v Waterford is the biggest game of the weekend, both sides would have considered themselves contenders but are left with an awful lot of ground to make up, if Waterford lose Friday night, they would need 47 points from their last twenty games to reach the sixty point mark, very little room for slip ups.

Any thoughts??

Are these statistics wholly irrelevant and a waste of all our time??

Discuss the issues.

[MagicMon]

Don't forget that with more promotion places and less games there will be more teams still in the hunt in August/September, so there won't be as many games against mid-table sides with nothing to play for.

[bluemovie]

Think you're about right there, Lim till i die. I had totted it up earlier this week too and reckon Waterford need 47 points from 21 games to get automatic promotion. That could be 14 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats. I just can't see us getting anywhere near that kind of consisitent form. So far, we've beaten the bottom four and lost to the top four. And with our record in play-offs, I wouldn't hold out much hope of winning a one-off tie in Drogheda (they'd probably sign Jeff McNamara for the day).

I know there's a long way to go, but I'll be surprised if Shels and Cork don't get the automatic places. Third could be between Monaghan, Limerick and maybe us unless Longford are this year's Monaghan.

[CSFShels]

With the First Division only having thirty games this year and Limerick making a pretty disappointing start myself and one of the lads have been fiddling around with the stats to figure out how many points would be required to be in the promotion shake up.

Averaging out the 2005-2010 season spread over thirty games gives us:

1st - 61 points
2nd -59 points
3rd - 55 points

Leaving out 2005 because the First Division was ridiculously competitive that year for some reason (51 points would have won you the league were it over 30 games.) the figures give you:

1st - 63 points
2nd - 61 points
3rd - 57 points

Now looking at these figures you could argue that with one round of games left in the first series Shels on 22 points look in a really strong position, beat Cork and they only need to win twelve of their remaining twenty games to be safe.

You could also argue Limerick v Waterford is the biggest game of the weekend, both sides would have considered themselves contenders but are left with an awful lot of ground to make up, if Waterford lose Friday night, they would need 47 points from their last twenty games to reach the sixty point mark, very little room for slip ups.

Any thoughts??

Are these statistics wholly irrelevant and a waste of all our time??

Discuss the issues.
Shels v Cork is probably a little bit bigger to be fair.
A game between 2 underachieving promotion candidates is a big game, but you'd have to say that 1 of 3 probable title deciding games is a bit bigger.

[bluewhitearmy]

Shels v Cork is probably a little bit bigger to be fair.
A game between 2 underachieving promotion candidates is a big game, but you'd have to say that 1 of 3 probable title deciding games is a bit bigger.

Only 20 games left sure. :roll:

[CSFShels]

Only 20 games left sure. :roll:
Don't worry, I know all too well how these things can go. But I think if you asked most people their predicted 1-2 it would be Shels and Cork in either order. I'm definitely not saying Limerick, Waterford or Monaghan are unable to go on and win the league this year, but I still don't think its a particularly arrogant statement to bill a game between the 2 strong promotion favourites a title decider. If either side takes 7 out of the 9 points from our 3 games, I've no doubt they'll win the league. If we share the points out more evenly, then it could be anyones.

[bluewhitearmy]

Im not saying we will be in it i dont think we will be...Just bit early to be calling it a title decider in my view...If we win Friday and ye beat Cork we are only a point behind Cork

[A face]

No one is mentioning Longford being in the title race as well. They are up the top end so surely they have to be counted as well.

[CSFShels]

Im not saying we will be in it i dont think we will be...Just bit early to be calling it a title decider in my view...If we win Friday and ye beat Cork we are only a point behind Cork
Which will have meant we've gone 6 points clear of them, 7 ahead of you and 12 ahead of Waterford. See how it kinda does become a bit of a title decider over the 3 games? If we split the points up over our 3 games, that lets the likes of yourselves and Waterford catch up the stupid points they've dropped, but if one side shows a bit of dominance in our 3 games, they'll take some catching from anyone in the league.

[CSFShels]

No one is mentioning Longford being in the title race as well. They are up the top end so surely they have to be counted as well.
Lets wait til we see where they are after their bye week and then trip to play us before we make that sort of call.

[L.T.F.C.]

Lets wait til we see where they are after their bye week and then trip to play us before we make that sort of call.

How can you discount the at worst 4th place team after the first round of games?

[Jofspring]

How can you discount the at worst 4th place team after the first round of games?

He hasn't though. He is saying wait till after the first series of games to either count or discount ye. Longford are up there and if they strengthen in July they'll be real contenders. No one from top to 6th can really be discounted yet. If Waterford beat us they are back in it. From what has been seen this season everyone is beatable, I know Cork haven't lost yet but they haven't been outstanding or a cut above everybody else in my opinion. Not like Derry last season.

[Macy]

No one is mentioning Longford being in the title race as well. They are up the top end so surely they have to be counted as well.
STFU - happy enough under the radar thanks! :)

[A face]

STFU - happy enough under the radar thanks! :)

No chance mate, you're not under the radar (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hXNYpx7QX0U/S8cYvY6R-QI/AAAAAAAAAAw/UxXTuzRDuLY/S1600-R/limelight_logo.png) if we can all see ye :)

[micls]

Shels are dead certs for automatic promotion imo. They're just too strong and are killing off the 'weaker' teams very professionally. I think they'll win the division too, but a couple of slip ups might make a good competition of it.

After that, I think we're doing reasonably well, but despite being undefeated I think we still drop points where we could win (Mervue, Longford) and whether we can stop this or not will decide if we get promotion. That and Graham Cummins staying fit!

Monaghan have started very well and if they can keep it p with consistency despite the Roddy factor they'll be there or there abouts.

Waterford and Limerick have both started poorly compared to expectations but I expect both to improve, Limerick moreso, and a decent run will have them challenging at the top again.

It's very tight and this weekend will tell a fair bit. If Shels beat us then think the confidence will take a knocking and theyl be in prime position to win it after one series. a win for us or a draw keeps it tighter. A win for Limerick will badly hurt Waterfords chances this year and could be the end of Hendo, but on the other hand a win could springboard them into a decent run. If either team loses really they'll have a hill to climb.

Oh the excitement of it all :D

[GalwayRed]

I wouldn't be confident to call us promotion certainties or anything like that even if we do win on Friday. Not after my experience of us in the first division so far :(. Right now I would take a draw on Friday happily and come out of series one with a 3 point lead.
The stats there do appear to put us in a strong position but I seem to remember us taking 31 points from 33 available in the second series of games in 2009 and that still wasn't enough for promotion.
A win on Friday would put us in a strong position though no doubt about it. We have a chance to put down a marker with the back to back home games anyway. Wouldn't rule out any of the top 6 but Waterford and Limerick is definitely a big one for both sides and Monaghan will want a win going into their bye week so as not to fall behind too much.

[orielabu]

Think you're about right there, Lim till i die. I had totted it up earlier this week too and reckon Waterford need 47 points from 21 games to get automatic promotion. That could be 14 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats. I just can't see us getting anywhere near that kind of consisitent form. So far, we've beaten the bottom four and lost to the top four. And with our record in play-offs, I wouldn't hold out much hope of winning a one-off tie in Drogheda (they'd probably sign Jeff McNamara for the day).

I know there's a long way to go, but I'll be surprised if Shels and Cork don't get the automatic places. Third could be between Monaghan, Limerick and maybe us unless Longford are this year's Monaghan.
Have you heard that Jeff McNamara was a guest of Dundalk's at the Setanta Cup match against Linfield and that the play-0ff story against Waterford was 'replayed' many times that night.!

[Raheny Red]

They're just too strong and are killing off the 'weaker' teams very professionally.

Beating Harps 1-0 at homes and Salthill away 1-0 is nothing to be shouting about. Harps were very unlucky not to have beaten us. And Cork will get at least a point tomorrow in Tolka.

[micls]

Beating Harps 1-0 at homes and Salthill away 1-0 is nothing to be shouting about. Harps were very unlucky not to have beaten us. And Cork will get at least a point tomorrow in Tolka.

Maybe killing off was the wrong word, I meant more that even when ye're not playing particularly well ye seem to be getting the results, nicking a goal. That's what I meant by professionally.

I hope you're right, I'd happily take a point now.

[BonnieShels]

Dying for tonight. It's gonna be a whopper.

It's interesting when its put this way.

If only we had the Apertura/Clasura system in this country. Campiones!