Election 2011 - Polling Day Announcement Poll [Archive] - Page 3

culloty82

05/02/2011, 4:45 PM

How many candidates are the Socialists and the ULA overall running?

Pretty sure ULA are running in 18 constituencies, including Healy's group in Tipp. Looks like the midweek poll was a rogue:

FG 35% (-2)
Lab 22% (+3)
FF 17% (-1)
SF 13% (+1)
Oth 11% (0)
GP 2% (-1)

superfrank

05/02/2011, 8:58 PM

Boards are doing their own poll. The latest results show FF getting slaughtered.

http://www.boards.ie/vote/

Charlie Darwin

05/02/2011, 10:44 PM

Is this really the best possible use of taxpayers' money?

http://i54.tinypic.com/2n0n14k.jpg

osarusan

06/02/2011, 9:23 AM

I'd say election campaign funds come from 'donations' and fundraising, rather than the taxpayer.

BohsPartisan

07/02/2011, 4:32 PM

Connolly is ex-SP... apparently going around saying he's "approved by Joe Higgins"! :)

Nope, Connolly is STILL SP.

FAO Jebus, think John Lyons is PBP but not sure if he's SWP/PBP or just randomer/PBP.

One thing though if the ULA is an alliance and the pbp is an alliance exactly whats the point of an alliance of an alliance?

.

Well PBP is essentially a SWP front that has managed to attract some randomers. SP were asked to get involved at one stage time but after the SWP had more or less decided the programme so they declined. I suppose the rational is that now PBP have established their own identity the SP would lose theirs by becoming part of it. Also, the ULA is a lot looser as an alliance than PBP, in fact it is not really an alliance at all but an electoral slate.

BonnieShels

07/02/2011, 9:33 PM

Well PBP is essentially a SWP front that has managed to attract some randomers. SP were asked to get involved at one stage time but after the SWP had more or less decided the programme so they declined. I suppose the rational is that now PBP have established their own identity the SP would lose theirs by becoming part of it. Also, the ULA is a lot looser as an alliance than PBP, in fact it is not really an alliance at all but an electoral slate.

Ah BP that was rhetorical.

On the other point about Connolly. I didn't know he was still SP. Though once a leftie...

peadar1987

08/02/2011, 11:56 AM

Boards are doing their own poll. The latest results show FF getting slaughtered.

http://www.boards.ie/vote/

At the risk of generalising, those who don't use the internet (the really old, and people from Roscommon) will be a lot more likely to vote FF. I have the horrible feeling that these promising internet results aren't going to be replicated on D-Day

culloty82

08/02/2011, 12:40 PM

True, but the fact that no party has a distorted percentage (except FF) after 8000+ votes, suggests that it is more credible than most online polls. In the real election, you can expect FF's vote to be at least double that, but this just shows they've problems attracting voters under 40 (most forum users) and that their recovery won't be as instant as you would expect.

Macy

08/02/2011, 1:14 PM

It'll be interesting to see the results when they do the full job on it including transfers. Can't see an independent topping the poll, which the one for Wicklow suggested (his supporters are active on boards.ie and must be distorting the vote).

I take the point about online polls and FF, however, it'll be interesting to see how they manage their vote this time. Firstly, there's less vote to actually manage, and secondly at such low polls will their candidates stick to management plans? And that's before you add in independent FFers. In Wicklow I could see Provisional FFer Behan take a seat at the expense of the Officials because of this, and he may be (for some reason) more transfer friendly - he'll be back in the party quicker than you can say "I voted for the budget and the IMF deal" though, imo.

John83

08/02/2011, 1:51 PM

It'll be interesting to see the results when they do the full job on it including transfers. Can't see an independent topping the poll, which the one for Wicklow suggested (his supporters are active on boards.ie and must be distorting the vote).
Ross is topping Dublin South too, by a distance. That's an odd one though. It's a 5-seater, 2 FF 2 FG 1G in the last election. FF nearly got a third seat too, but then Lee won the by-election with a landslide. FF have lost their established names there - Kitt retired and Brennan died. Anyway, I think the demographic on boards is skewed young, and it's showing in a preference for new blood above what I'd expect from the electorate as a whole. FG's 3rd candidate, Mathews, is miles ahead of their incumbents (Mitchell & Shatter). Granted, he looks a good candidate on paper, but I'd be surprised if that matters a damn come polling day.

dahamsta

08/02/2011, 1:53 PM

Boards are doing their own poll. The latest results show FF getting slaughtered.

It's a nice setup, I like it. It's not representative though, as peadar says. Generally, technophiles tend to be more liberal than technophobes, and Boards users in particular tend to be very liberal. "Online votes" are getting better, but they're still a mile away from a proper poll. The problem now being that there are very few actual proper polls any more, they either have crap sample sizes or they're phrased and focussed to go a particular way.

Is this really the best possible use of taxpayers' money?

I noticed that yesterday, incredibly bad ad design; no background colour chosen. I left it there, because the idiot that commissioned it from another idiot deserves to pay for any actual clicks it gets.

Macy

08/02/2011, 2:03 PM

The problem now being that there are very few actual proper polls any more, they either have crap sample sizes or they're phrased and focussed to go a particular way.
Whatever about the general numbers polled (for national polls), i'd have little faith in the follow up stuff like leadership satisfaction etc, as they can be totally skewed depending on the question asked. Do agree if they're going to regional breakdowns that they have to up the samples significantly.

Just on polls, did RTE really pay someone to do what seemed like just an average of the polls over the weekend? No spreadsheets in Montrose? If they were going to do such an analysis they could've at least used one of the several online and/or academic commentators who attempt to translate polls into seat numbers!

dahamsta

08/02/2011, 2:05 PM

The wife was doing her nut over that "poll of polls". It seems to have used polls from all over the shop, including well before the dissolution. It's the kind of garbage you'd expect from Fox News.

John83

08/02/2011, 2:13 PM

Just on polls, did RTE really pay someone to do what seemed like just an average of the polls over the weekend? No spreadsheets in Montrose? If they were going to do such an analysis they could've at least used one of the several online and/or academic commentators who attempt to translate polls into seat numbers!
Oh dear. I withdraw my earlier comments on this site about the use of statistics in sport being exceptionally retarded. The word exceptionally is clearly unwarranted.

Magicme

08/02/2011, 5:14 PM

I know you are all already glad you dont live in Monaghan (or Cavan for that matter) but now even more reasons have emerged. We have 3 independants running: 1, Jonathon Rainey whom I mentioned previously. 2. John McGuirk - Ex-libertas and am pretty sure I bumped into him years ago when had to do a speech at the Christian Solidarity Party Ard Fheis 3. Seamus Treanor - bread delivery man from the town who did well in the local elections but made some very unsavoury remarks about asylum seekers when speaking about their accommodation in Monaghan (which was highlighted on prime time some months back) and has therefore really put me off.

Really was hoping for an independant I could give a vote to but with the above dross, there arent really any viable options.

Schumi

08/02/2011, 6:35 PM

That boards.ie poll isn't too useful as a guide to any particular constituency as it's not a random sample so someone's 50 mates can skew a constituency poll hugely.

ArdeeBhoy

11/02/2011, 4:48 PM

Time for a new poll yet, please??

culloty82

11/02/2011, 8:21 PM

When he does put up a new poll, it'll probably be most useful to ask 1st, 2nd, 3rd preferences.

ArdeeBhoy

13/02/2011, 5:51 PM

Or cover as many candidates that are as likely to be on the ballot paper. Or at least the first 6 or 8?

dahamsta

13/02/2011, 5:54 PM

You can't do a preferential poll in vBulletin. We'll be doing one more poll when I get the time to implement it, and when the candidates are finalised we'll be doing constituency polls, if someone will take the job on.

culloty82

13/02/2011, 8:49 PM

Final day for nominations was Tuesday, so all candidates in every constituency have been declared now.

Charlie Darwin

13/02/2011, 9:06 PM

Show your love with a Fine Gael valentine's day e-card now!! (This is 100% real)

http://finegael2011.com/valentine.asp

dahamsta

13/02/2011, 9:44 PM

Final day for nominations was Tuesday, so all candidates in every constituency have been declared now.

So, anyone want to take the job on? It's a lot of work and while ordinarily I'd take some or all of it on myself, I have a lot on my plate at the moment. I'm happy to create the polls if someone will create lists of the candidates.

dahamsta

13/02/2011, 10:38 PM

Show your love with a Fine Gael valentine's day e-card now!! (This is 100% real)

100% real, 100% insecure (http://www.mulley.net/2011/02/13/send-anonymous-hate-messages-powered-by-fine-gael/).

I don't know who FG's IT guy is, but he should be taken outside and shot. My 14yo could genuinely do a better job.