Election 2011 - First Pre-Election Poll

[dahamsta]

For reference, the last pre-election Foot.ie poll (http://foot.ie/threads/59062-Election-2007) in 2007. Thanks Dodge for tracking it down.

[BonnieShels]

Well the removal of Fianna Fáil is always to be welcome.
:)

What about the coherent gaggle of People Before Profit Alliance?
They're always game for a laugh policy wise.

[centre mid]

Workers Party - Currently only has 2 councillors but still an active party, unclear whether they will stand any candidates in a General Election.

Communist Party of Ireland - Still a official party, haven't stood any candidates in years but you never know.

Libertas - got hammered at the last local elections & European elections

People before profit - Only have councillors (6 or 7 I think) all around Dublin so might run a candidate or two in south dublin.

Christian Solidarity Party - I've no idea but they do exist.

Cant think of anymore.

[Dodge]

I reckon the People befoe Profit people will get at least one seat. Came close last time out

[Spudulika]

The CSP kind of dropped off the scene after they were duped by a couple of comedians. And their rhetoric won't be allowed by "right on" media - even if they explicitly state that they are non-sectarian.

Are the Commies throwing in their lot with the Workers Party?

[Dodge]

The CSP kind of dropped off the scene after they were duped by a couple of comedians. And their rhetoric won't be allowed by "right on" media - even if they explicitly state that they are non-sectarian.

Hilarious. Its completely the fault of the "right on" media that they've consistently lost deposits

People before Profit is effectively the Workers Party

[Aberdonian Stu]

Isn't PBP the SWP? That's a different lot to the WP last I checked.

[Macy]

PBP are mainly the SWP, although it is a wider grouping than simply a SWP cover.

Boyd Barrett came very close to a seat last time out, although I'm not convinced he'll do as well this time (it was on the back of a local issue he was at the forefront of).

Surely fringe groups such as Libertas and CSP on the extreme right and the Workers Party and the Communists on the left are covered by "others"? I doubt any would be in with a real shout of a seat (only perhaps Ganley if he stood).

And the problem the nutters in the CSP have in getting votes is the "right on" media? Give me a feckin break. And just because they say something, doesn't make it true spud!

[dahamsta]

Reopened, let's stick with parties with sitting TDs or we'll be here forever. Perhaps an Other?

[Macy]

Reopened, let's stick with parties with sitting TDs or we'll be here forever. Perhaps an Other?
Technically that means no Socialist Party, but I guess MEPs are members of the main parties Parliamentary Party.

[dahamsta]

Sorry, I meant to mention that's why the Socialist Party is there. Is Higgins standing as a TD though? If he's not, I'll remove tha party.

[Mr A]

I think he intends to stand yes- he said so after becoming an MEP.

[osarusan]

I know it infuriates you, but how about a 'not voting / don't care' category to see how many people just don't give a crap?

[Dodge]

I know it infuriates you, but how about a 'not voting / don't care' category to see how many people just don't give a crap?

If they really didn't give crap they wouldn't open the thread...

Good catch on the PbP/SWP mistake I made above lads...

[dahamsta]

If they're not going to vote, they have no right to be in here, or to pass comment in any other forum, online or offline.

Non-voters can take what they got, and they can keep their mouths shut about it whether they like it or not.

[Macy]

I think he intends to stand yes- he said so after becoming an MEP.
Actually he said it before and during the campaign, much to the disappointment of the other parties who were attempting to use it against him!

[Bluebeard]

I won't / can't actually vote as I no long live or pay tax in the country, and am not likely to in the future (choice, not recessionary circumstance btw). In the absence of such an option I have voted as I might vote were the option open to me, and a candidate available.

[John83]

Holy crap - Labour are running away with it. Anyone have a link to the last election thread to compare?

[centre mid]

FF got about 40% in the last poll. Probably will again in the next election too.

[Dodge]

http://foot.ie/threads/59062-Election-2007

[centre mid]

OK 25% then.

[superfrank]

I'll probably vote for Labour, although I despise Gilmore. He's great at complaining to the media but I haven't heard him offering any real alternatives.

I would vote FG but they seem even more useless than Labour. I'd vote for them if Bruton was leader.

[BonnieShels]

Finally someone with the same opinion of Gilmore as me. I fret for an Ireland with him in power.

The idea of Boyd Barrett as a td has jarred me into considering running against him on anti boyd barrett ticket. I'm nor joking. Deal with him and his crony Hugh Lewis everyday and they drive me spare.
Local issues have no place in a national legislature.
just like protesting against the changes to the 46a route AFTER they've been implemented is retarded.

[dahamsta]

I don't get Gilmore's popularity at all. He's a soundbyte queen, worse then Enda even. Total bulls*t artist. That said, if the local Labour guy doesn't make the same mistake he did the last time - campaigning with Oireachtas prepaid envelopes - they'll get my first preference. (Let's be honest, he probably will.)

EDIT: I've asked the Labour Party for their current position. See here (http://verbo.se/dear-senator-alan-kelly) for context.

[Lim till i die]

Tis an interesting one.

I've never voted Fianna Fail, from a local point of view (don't ban me hamster!!) Willie O'Dea is a creep and a liar, Peter Power is a cretin. In more general terms I find Fianna Fail people to be among the worst people in Ireland.
I find the policies of The Green Party abhorrent to the point where if the only two candidates in Limerick East were a Green and a Nazi I would tick the box next to the Nazi.

Then on the otherside you have Fine Gael who have a long history of hating the working class.
And Labour who don't really seem to believe in anything. I will never vote for their Limerick East candidate because of her carry on in local council (which again would make you wonder where they're coming from as a party)

Then you have the Shinners who have shown in the Northern Assembly that they don't believe in anything.
The Socialist Party (who are less active in Limerick than Republican Sinn Fein)


In summary, I fully intend to vote but some party or other needs to grab me damnit!!

[dahamsta]

Of course it's not all about the party, sometimes you need to focus more on your local candidate.

The poll simply can't be done from that POV, it's not technically feasible.

[mypost]

I don't get Gilmore's popularity at all. He's a soundbyte queen, worse then Enda even. Total bulls*t artist.

Yes, well when it comes to getting across your message, soundbytes work. Gilmore has great soundbytes, but bores the viewer when he has to make speeches. Kenny has the opposite problem. He fails to score punches against Cowen in the Dail, an accent like his can sound very very dull, but he can nail a speech with targeted jabs at the government. Trouble is, broadcasters don't have the time to show 20-30 minute speeches in parliament. They do have the time to show 2-3 minute clips on any given day and that shows Gilmore very well.

Libertas have been wound up recently by Ganley, which is a shame, as after the next election, there will probably only be 4 sitting parties in the Dail, and therefore less choice for the electorate. More ammo for the "they're all the same" crowd.

[mypost]

As for 4 parties in the Dail - not once in my voting life have I been faced with a ballot with only 4 parties. If we end up with only 4 parties then that's up to the electorate (and that's the reason why they are all heading towards the same ground, unfortunately).

We've lost the Socialists and the PD's from the Dail, and most likely the Greens after the next election when they get wiped out. I'd be surprised if they even won a seat. That will leave us with the Big 3 and Sinn Fein afterwards. Nobody else has the time, the money, or the drive to set up a new party or offer something else to the electorate.

[Mr A]

This time I hope there'll be an independent voice, someone who can do something locally and work for the community - Dublin West has been one of the hardest hit in terms of unemployment, has suffered greatly in the property meltdown and ultimately while there is alot of recommend it (business parks, IT, services) there are still areas that are side stepped in the Dail.

All politics may be local, but it bloody should be national, as it's a big part of the reason we end up with gombeens in the Dail. I don't want pothole fixers in there, I want competent legislators.

[Macy]

We've lost the Socialists and the PD's from the Dail, and most likely the Greens after the next election when they get wiped out. I'd be surprised if they even won a seat. That will leave us with the Big 3 and Sinn Fein afterwards. Nobody else has the time, the money, or the drive to set up a new party or offer something else to the electorate.
But the Greens and Socialists will be on the ballot paper (I expect at least one socialist seat anyway, so think you'll be wrong on that), along with others such as People Before Profit, Workers Party and several nutjob parties such as CSP and ICP, as well as many independents.

If we end up with only 4 parties that is because that is the electorates choice, not because there is no choice.

[dahamsta]

I've moved the candidate discussion here (http://foot.ie/threads/142273-Candidate-Dicussion), my own fault for bringing it up. Please keep this thread focussed on parties. I may look at doing local polls later.

[TheBoss]

I personally think that independents should be banned from National Elections, have them at council level, that is what they are there for. They hold governments to ransom and virtually bribe them aswell, is that how a democracy is supposed to work ?, Like, ''Get me a school in my constituency, or I am not voting for you''. It should not work like that.

[mypost]

And how does that differ to the power a 6-seat party holds over a 78-seat party now?

There are Independents in every election, not just in Ireland. They're a nuisance to big parties, but there were only 5 of them elected to the current Dail, even though with FF/PD dropouts since, there are now more of them for the government to cater for.

[Macy]

And how does that differ to the power a 6-seat party holds over a 78-seat party now?
Some systems (Germany rings a bell, but haven't time to check) require a minimum national vote before a seat can be taken. Not sure how those systems handle people losing the whip, or resigning from parties though.

Independents do differ from the likes of PD's and Greens, as incenerators excepted, they do at least have a national platform & policies.

[BonnieShels]

Wahey. Someone who's on my side. I'm shocked at the level of consensus amongst us all. I hate hate hate local politics influencing the national debate. There are certain instances Luke the Noel grealish use west stance, though a nicely timed move for him, where certain local items have a bearing on the national.
But there is also the clear reality that FF couldn't juve a monkeys about the west.

I've Petulant Gogarty, Haymaker Harney and John Slugworth Curran are my local tds. It's hellish.

[Spudulika]

Before we eliminate Independents we should always look at those who did more than just "get a local school", the prime example being Tony Gregory (RIP). While local TD's will tell their local party colleagues in the council what to do, they will ultimately toe the party line. I mean, I had always supported the bulk of the Green agenda, especially in relation to improving living space, renewable fuels etc, but when you hear their TD's backing the government lies on how a nuclear power plant would be "great" for Ireland - I mean, I have a paper that was rehashed and presented to the Green Party conference back in 1995 that completely disproved Ireland's need for it, as well as how putting it in Wexford was a farce (even last year the Greens pretended that the State Geology Service was wrong in how the bedrock of Carnsore would be a disaster for such a plant).

I wonder will SF gain anything in this election or will they even hold? The border TD's will be okay I presume, while FF will not meltdown and have the brass neck to form a rainbow coaltion if they can see the IMF bandwaggon or some other bailout on the horizon - that way they'll have their snouts in the trough yet again!

[culloty82]

I wonder will SF gain anything in this election or will they even hold? The border TD's will be okay I presume, while FF will not meltdown and have the brass neck to form a rainbow coaltion if they can see the IMF bandwaggon or some other bailout on the horizon - that way they'll have their snouts in the trough yet again!

Can't see SF winning more than 7 seats, with 4 more likely - Doherty must be nailed on to win in Donegal, and Mary Lou will probably win wherever she re-materialises in Dublin, but Ferris will probably lose out in Kerry and O'Snodaigh's seat wasn't terribly secure in '07 either. Higgins will likely return for the Socialists, but Boyd-Barrett's day has arguably passed, so that's the extent of progress for the minor parties.

[Aberdonian Stu]

I'm from Dun Laoghaire and am not a Boyd-Barrett supporter by any stretch but I think he has a chance at winning a seat. He topped the poll in the Dun Laoghaire Ward at the local elections and while that support doesn't transfer directly into the General Election it was still a massive improvement from his previous performance at the previous locals where he ended up without a seat. With Dun Laoghaire losing a seat the odds are against him but the picture is quite scattered as Cuffe is favoured to lose while FG has a remarkable habit of turning their vote into less seats than one would expect with such a return. Throw in two strong FF candidates where only one will likely survive and you have an extra element of chaos.

Right now my best guess has him down as missing out, with a 2 FG 1 FF 1 Lab result, but I am biased against him and even then I only think he will miss out by a whisker. Like many constituencies, Dun Laoghaire should be fascinating for election junkies.

[Spudulika]

I think the question is will FF and their cronies allow FG keep their leader until the election and what other disasters will be hidden away from the public to be unleashed in another major scare tactic? I had and still have the feeling that FF did their best to lose the last election. I still feel that FG knew what was coming down the line with Anglo et al and didn't bust a gut to go into power. The bluster over "we won't join with SF" won't happen this time if they get close to the finish line, because they know if they fail to win this election then they'll be rejected as failures. I foresee a Labour-FF government with Gilmore as the feisty Tanaiste and Burton taking over from an "exhausted" Lenihan.

[Macy]

Before we eliminate Independents we should always look at those who did more than just "get a local school", the prime example being Tony Gregory (RIP).
I had massive admiration for Gregory, but he was most well known for deliverying for his consituents. The "Gregory Deal" with Haughey was where he made his name ffs.


I foresee a Labour-FF government with Gilmore as the feisty Tanaiste and Burton taking over from an "exhausted" Lenihan.
I really don't see that at all. Only outside bet would be a Labour Led FF coalition, but then I don't think FF would go for that even if Labour members would, and it would depend on FG/ Kenny playing silly buggers in the event of a virtual tie in seat numbers between FG and Labour forcing Labours hand. (which given how he's clinging to the FG leadership I suppose is hard to rule out!). But in those circumstances I wouldn't rule out a "National Government" in the "National Interest" between FG and FF - Kenny would do anything to be Taoiseach.

[dahamsta]

Discussion continued in the General thread (http://foot.ie/threads/144298-Election-2011-General).