The Bank Guarantee

[Mr A]

[MOD EDIT: Thread title was "No wonder the country is fecked."]

When you look at this picture from the Irish Times:

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4121/4798942968_0cc46b154e.jpg

(You can find the original here (http://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/)- until they fix it of course :) )

On a more serious note, it is becoming increasingly evident that the advise offered by the department of finance in the run up to the bank guarantee was simply rubbish. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0716/breaking2.html)

[pineapple stu]

Seems appropriate.

[Macy]

On a more serious note, it is becoming increasingly evident that the advise offered by the department of finance in the run up to the bank guarantee was simply rubbish. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0716/breaking2.html)
Oh look, the Dáil isn't sitting and all the leaks, releases etc suit the Government... The bottom line is Lenihan still had a fair idea that Anglo was fecked. It was always obvious that Anglo wasn't of systemic importance and shouldn't have been included in the guarantee (even if they guaranteed deposits in Anglo).

[osarusan]

Government was advised not to introduce a guarantee just before it did so.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0716/banks.html


Documents published by the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee show that the Government was advised not to introduce a blanket guarantee for the six Irish banks just before it did so.

An email from financial consultants Merrill Lynch on 29 September 2008 advised the Government to introduce a Secured Lending Scheme for the banks, under which commercial property could be exchanged for Government bonds or cash.
It said the alternative was a blanket guarantee covering all depositors and senior creditors, which would involve more than €500bn.
Merrill Lynch said this would 'almost certainly negatively impact the State's sovereign credit rating and raise issues as to its credibility'.

[total hoofball]

Govt advised not to introduce bank guarantee

Friday, 16 July 2010 13:28


Documents published by the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee show that the Government was advised not to introduce a blanket guarantee for the six Irish banks just before it did so.

An email from financial consultants Merrill Lynch on 29 September 2008 advised the Government to introduce a Secured Lending Scheme for the banks, under which commercial property could be exchanged for Government bonds or cash.

It said the alternative was a blanket guarantee covering all depositors and senior creditors, which would involve more than €500bn.

Merrill Lynch said this would 'almost certainly negatively impact the State's sovereign credit rating and raise issues as to its credibility'.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0716/banks.html

Lenihan called it 'the cheapest bailout in the world so far' and nearly two years on were are saddled with Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide both of whom are draining so much cash that our deficit this year will stand at a terrifying 20% of our GDP.

Lenihan and Cowen assured the people of this nation that they took their decision to implement a blanket guarantee on best advice, that assertion has been blown out of the water today and unless they can produce where and whom their 'advice' orginated then there is no way these two and this government can continue.

[osarusan]

On another thread.

http://foot.ie/threads/138143-No-Wonder-the-Country-is-fecked?p=1376920&viewfull=1#post1376920

Maybe it's worth its own thread though.

[OneRedArmy]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0716/banks.html

Lenihan called it 'the cheapest bailout in the world so far' and nearly two years on were are saddled with Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide both of whom are draining so much cash that our deficit this year will stand at a terrifying 20% of our GDP.

Lenihan and Cowen assured the people of this nation that they took their decision to implement a blanket guarantee on best advice, that assertion has been blown out of the water today and unless they can produce where and whom their 'advice' orginated then there is no way these two and this government can continue.Given the same report went on the say 'all of the Irish banks are profitable and well capitalised', and given Merrill's own experiences in the US (they almost went to the wall themselves), I wouldn't be treating this report like some kind of definitive statement.

The synthetic securitisation of commercial loans to free up liquid assets as recommended by Merrill as an alternative to a blanket guarantee was subsequently put in place by the ECB.

The interesting bit here IMO, is that as late as Autumn 2008 you have
investment banks (Merrills and the Goldman info also released today)
auditors
FinReg
rating agencies
Department of Finance

all saying that the banks, and in particular Anglo and Nationwide, were well capitalised and loans adequately provided....

That all of them could be so wrong, together, is staggering groupthink and in many ways is more important for the future that the guarantee.

[Spudulika]

I had an interesting chat last week with one Mr. Paddy Kelly (he of NAMA fame). Most of the chat was about football, GAA, golf and then he brought up finance. Most of what we spoke about was private, however one thing he did say was that he'd been guaranteed by "a senior figure in government" that when Anglo and IN were rescued that there would be cash pouring in from around the world as everybody was on their side. However within 4 weeks he was called to a meeting in Dublin to be told that all his loans were being called in. I asked him how bad was the situation - assets of c. €350million, debts of over €2.5billion. I felt sick and wondered how could that happen. Listening to and reading reports this week and I wonder how much more they'll pour into Anglo to cover the golden circle!

Only after meeting did I see this article in the weekend Indo.
http://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/from-trophy-assets-to-deep-trouble-2263235.html

[osarusan]

Newsweek calls Cowen one of the top 10 leaders in the world.

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/16/go-to-the-head-of-the-class/the-fiscal-taskmaster-brian-cowen.html


Prime Minister Brian Cowen and his able finance minister, Brian Lenihan, are prescribing harsh medicine. They've pushed through austerity packages drastic enough to win the admiration of the international community

Check out some of the comments below.

[Mr A]

Join us next week when Josef Fritzl makes the babysitter top ten.


Freaking sweet.

[Fr Damo]

AAAAAAAAAAAAA........now I see.......... the reason we are fc*ked is cos S&P's rating is flawed! http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0825/ntma.html

yet whe when "Newsweek" said Cowan was in the top ten world leaders the same clowns smiled smuggly saying we are a model to the rest of the world.

Blame everyone but ourselves. Listen to what we want to hear. The ISEQ at the lowest point in over 12 months yesterday, we are running out of IOUs big style, & Septemeber 30th is nigh.
I was abroad two weeks ago and could only read the UK times without going on the net which I avoided. Ireland and the Economy here was conspicous by our absence with little or no comment. It dawned on me, we are a blot on the copy book of europe, one that they would like to erase with Tip ex. Greece got several mentions and how thay are turning the corners we turned last year 4 times (to leave us back were we started), and England is going to be back into recession shortly.
The only indeginous sector doing ok at the moment is agriculture, so we have progressed forward and back to the 70s.

[Macy]

The entire handling of the bank problems has been flawed from the start, from guarantee to NAMA. Thanks Brian.

[Macy]

Again on the bank guarantee, seeing as the Government and it's agencies have been coming out with how the ratings agencies are "wrong". The whole justification for not letting Anglo go under, guaranteeing it, and then nationalising it, was that we couldn't let sub ordinated debt holders take a hit as we'd be reliant on them to buy our bonds and the markets would react badly to it. Now it is precisely because of the cost of the Anglo bail out and the guarantee of sub ordinated debt that our ratings are going down and our yeilds are going out.

We were sold a pup - I guess whether by accident or design is up to each of us to make up their own mind (the media are still on the blame anybody but brian - he's ill you know - buzz).

[OneRedArmy]

The only indeginous sector doing ok at the moment is agriculture, so we have progressed forward and back to the 70s.Completely and utterly wrong. Pharma and high tech amongst others, are performing extremely strongly and will continue to until the Yanks go into their double dip recession. Agriculture is a overly subsidised farce that has cost us more than the bank bailout since we joined the EU.


The entire handling of the bank problems has been flawed from the start, from guarantee to NAMA. Thanks Brian.I think its too early to call NAMA a failure. Time will tell (at least a decade). Anglo and Nationwide being kept going is the true failure. The bank guarantee is hard to prove as a failure as we really don't know how the alternatives would have fared, but its now time to cut it and see what happens.


Again on the bank guarantee, seeing as the Government and it's agencies have been coming out with how the ratings agencies are "wrong". The whole justification for not letting Anglo go under, guaranteeing it, and then nationalising it, was that we couldn't let sub ordinated debt holders take a hit as we'd be reliant on them to buy our bonds and the markets would react badly to it. Now it is precisely because of the cost of the Anglo bail out and the guarantee of sub ordinated debt that our ratings are going down and our yeilds are going out.

We were sold a pup - I guess whether by accident or design is up to each of us to make up their own mind (the media are still on the blame anybody but brian - he's ill you know - buzz).Regardless of Anglo and the banks the Government borrowing would have increased significant. We are still running a primary budget deficit. I'm not denying that the bulk of the deficit is banking related, but it isn't the only cause.

[Macy]

Regardless of Anglo and the banks the Government borrowing would have increased significant. We are still running a primary budget deficit. I'm not denying that the bulk of the deficit is banking related, but it isn't the only cause.
No doubt - different debate, but again the majority fault of the current largest party in Government. Rightly or wrongly, the measures taken to address the current account deficit is getting a mostly positive reaction. However, the banking "solution" followed by Lenihan is the primary cause of the negative ratings and the cost of our borrowings.

Lenihan and the Government continually said that including Anglo in the Guarantee and nationalising it was the only option because of negative market confidence effects of letting it go to the wall and the subordinated debt holders taking a hit would have on this states ability to raise money. It's turned out to be the exact opposite, with the market hammering us because of the billions being piled into Anglo (mainly). Rather than inspire confidence saving anglo has turned out to be the noose around our necks. That, of course, assumes it was saved for economic reasons in the first place.

[Fr Damo]

Completely and utterly wrong. Pharma and high tech amongst others, are performing extremely strongly and will continue to until the Yanks go into their double dip recession. Agriculture is a overly subsidised farce that has cost us more than the bank bailout since we joined the EU.

How many of these pharma and high tech companies are Irish? i.e keep profits here for further investment? That's my understanding of indeginous anyway.......

I made no mention of CAP, why did you feel the need? Fact is they are spending money on capital equipment, consumer goods, investing in land (reps) and adding value (cows eat grass and somhow their by products ends up in Malteasers in case you didn't know).. Out of this primary activity came some of the world leaders in farming technology, Cashels Engineering (sell to the USAF) McHale (export to Newzealand among other places), Dromone Engineering, (OE supplier to John Deere), C&F Tooling (now in renewable energy and own Iralco) Keenan in Carlow (balers). I could go on. All Irish owned (indeginous), Irish run providing employement and retaining profits here, manufacturing invoative products having seen the need through hands on experiences.

Another storey but you brought it up ORA, but please detail how much CAP has cost Ireland bearing in mind we benifited hugley when the governments of the 70s and 80s hadn't a pot to pi$$ in, or as this is OT please quantify the Guarentee in euros?

[dahamsta]

Most of the older high tech companies, that actually paid our already limited taxes, are gone. The newer ones will have major tax incentives in place that likely give them net zero tax exposure in Ireland. Their only contribution to the country is employment, and I remain sceptical about the long term economic advantages of the focus on employment at the expense of everything else.

The world is short of food and energy, we need to get back to farming in Ireland to feed both demands. We also need to stop pussyfooting around with retailers on wholesale food prices, but this is a global problem and another topic entirely.

[OneRedArmy]

Most of the older high tech companies, that actually paid our already limited taxes, are gone. The newer ones will have major tax incentives in place that likely give them net zero tax exposure in Ireland. Their only contribution to the country is employment, and I remain sceptical about the long term economic advantages of the focus on employment at the expense of everything else.

The world is short of food and energy, we need to get back to farming in Ireland to feed both demands. We also need to stop pussyfooting around with retailers on wholesale food prices, but this is a global problem and another topic entirely.By high tech I mean Google, Norkom and the like and true indigenous IT firms in the SME sector, of which there are many.

Dell and Co weren't high tech. They screwed together parts made elsewhere as part of a transfer pricing tax whizz that the US Government have gotten wise to.

Probably a discussion for another thread, but my opinion would be that the world isn't short on food or energy, it just uses them extremely inefficiently. In the same way Irish taxpayers (rightly) object to their tax money bailing out banks, I object to mine paying recreational farmers to not grow things.

[Fr Damo]

The world is short of food and energy, we need to get back to farming in Ireland to feed both demands. We also need to stop pussyfooting around with retailers on wholesale food prices, but this is a global problem and another topic entirely.


Dahamsta I agree and did you know the UAE and Saudi are buying up land and production capacity in South America and Austrialasia to do just that, grow food?
I also agree with ORA's sentiment regarding payments to hobby farmers (decoupling and the single payment) but these will quite literally stop over night in about three years meaning you are either in farming or out of it. (anyway most of this loot is from Brussels) & those who can gear up and gain effeciencies will only prosper. It is by far a better and more honoroable bet than banking, financial services and construction.

[Macy]

Probably a discussion for another thread, but my opinion would be that the world isn't short on food or energy, it just uses them extremely inefficiently. In the same way Irish taxpayers (rightly) object to their tax money bailing out banks, I object to mine paying recreational farmers to not grow things.
The world maybe isn't, but we have very little security in either. We have a whole farming sector which is struggling while we import food that could be grown/ raised here. On the other hand we do have energy, but we've given it away for peanuts (and the Green Minister continues to do so) with not even security of supply.


I also agree with ORA's sentiment regarding payments to hobby farmers (decoupling and the single payment) but these will quite literally stop over night in about three years meaning you are either in farming or out of it. (anyway most of this loot is from Brussels) & those who can gear up and gain effeciencies will only prosper.
I doubt "hobby" farmers get much subsidy - maybe you (either deliberately or by accident) confusing part time farmers, most of who would rather be working the land. They probably wouldn't need the subsidies if the state/ eu tackled the issue of the major multiples (such as Tesco) driving down prices to the producer and driving up their profit margin on the other side.

We shouldn't let the market decide our food security, imo. Why do you think the countries you quote are buying up land in South America? To secure their food supply, but you want to drive Irish farmers out of business at the behest of the market?

[dahamsta]

By high tech I mean Google, Norkom and the like and true indigenous IT firms in the SME sector, of which there are many.

Dell and Co weren't high tech. They screwed together parts made elsewhere as part of a transfer pricing tax whizz that the US Government have gotten wise to.

Probably a discussion for another thread, but my opinion would be that the world isn't short on food or energy, it just uses them extremely inefficiently. In the same way Irish taxpayers (rightly) object to their tax money bailing out banks, I object to mine paying recreational farmers to not grow things.

Google and their ilk will have tax breaks up the wahooney. Indigenous IT firms - I am one, remember - are in the bizarre position of paying more taxes than international firms, making it incredibly difficult to compete; and more importantly on this particular thread, grow and pay more taxes.

Dell and their ilk - MS and Oracle are far worse, all they do in Ireland is print CDs and DVDs - are still considered high tech by our moronic government, which is the one that matters here. They throw money at these companies because every time the tax breaks expire, they drop hints about pulling out.

Can't argue with you on inefficiencies on the food and energy side, but that's not going to change anytime soon. The fact remains that Ireland would be a lot better off if it weaned itself off it's incredibly risky dependence on multinationals, and onto sustainable business like food and energy production via farming. We were good at farming until relatively recently, there's no reason we can't get back to it again, without the admittedly ridiculous subsidies cycle.

(EDIT: We should be planting millions of trees too, but again, that's a subject for another thread.)

[OneRedArmy]

How many of these pharma and high tech companies are Irish? Lots of IT firms and a few pharma. They are not huge individually, but they are exactly what we've been trying to do for 30 years, which is not be in thrall to large foreign owned MNE's (e.g. Dell) who aren't sticky and go where the subsidies are big and costs low.

I made no mention of CAP, why did you feel the need? Because you can't assess the success of the sector without considering the subsidy. Its like saying the banking industry is performing well as its well capitalised (ignoring that the capital was almost exclusively taxpayer provided!
Fact is they are spending money on capital equipment, consumer goods, investing in land (reps) and adding value (cows eat grass and somhow their by products ends up in Malteasers in case you didn't know).. Out of this primary activity came some of the world leaders in farming technology, Cashels Engineering (sell to the USAF) McHale (export to Newzealand among other places), Dromone Engineering, (OE supplier to John Deere), C&F Tooling (now in renewable energy and own Iralco) Keenan in Carlow (balers). I could go on. All Irish owned (indeginous), Irish run providing employement and retaining profits here, manufacturing invoative products having seen the need through hands on experiences.Irish farmers are buying those products with our tax money. Just to be clear. As for the exporting companies, in full agreement, they are doing brilliant, in the same way Irish owned IT firms such as Norkom, Lagan are. The challenge is to get the many SME's to grow into larger, sustainable employers with global recognition. As long as we were throwing money at foreign companies to bring in low-skill assembly jobs this next step was never going to happen. So it unemployment terms, the situation is dire, but there is hope for the future. I would argue that until Ireland develops a real venture capital culture of investing to fail (i.e. making lots of bets in the recognition that only one or two will suceed) then we will struggle to turn SME's into world beaters.


Another storey but you brought it up ORA, but please detail how much CAP has cost Ireland bearing in mind we benifited hugley when the governments of the 70s and 80s hadn't a pot to pi$$ in, or as this is OT please quantify the Guarentee in euros?Surely you're aware of the concept of opportunity cost? There are much better things to be spending money on (and the same applies to propping up dead banks). No idea how much CAP has cost Ireland, I suspect I'd need to do a PhD to unwind that one, but I remember reading that the cumulative cost of CAP subsidies since the mid-70s is about €2trillion at current prices. This document tells me that Ireland has received €44bn in CAP funds since 1974 http://ec.europa.eu/ireland/ireland_in_the_eu/impact/effects/index_en.htm

[Fr Damo]

We shouldn't let the market decide our food security, imo. Why do you think the countries you quote are buying up land in South America? To secure their food supply, but you want to drive Irish farmers out of business at the behest of the market? I am pointing out a feckin opportunity here, in the ways Goodman did with Iraq years ago. I'm saying we have neglicted this area and now we must get back to basics (as per dahamasta comments). I never said I wanted drive Irish farmers out nor can i understand where you got that from.

Hobby farmers are the exception to the rule on the small holding guys and I accept that.



Surely you're aware of the concept of opportunity cost? There are much better things to be spending money on (and the same applies to propping up dead banks). No idea how much CAP has cost Ireland, I suspect I'd need to do a PhD to unwind that one, but I remember reading that the cumulative cost of CAP subsidies since the mid-70s is about €2trillion at current prices. This document tells me that Ireland has received €44bn in CAP funds since 1974 http://ec.europa.eu/ireland/ireland_...s/index_en.htm (http://ec.europa.eu/ireland/ireland_in_the_eu/impact/effects/index_en.htm)
i.e............... a nett benificory so.

[dahamsta]

Nothing wrong with recreational or hobby farming, I'd like to be one some day!

[OneRedArmy]

I am pointing out a feckin opportunity here, in the ways Goodman did with Iraq years ago. I'm saying we have neglicted this area and now we must get back to basics (as per dahamasta comments). I never said I wanted drive Irish farmers out nor can i understand where you got that from.. I'm not sure holding Larry Goodman up as a positive example to anything is particularly wise.....!

i.e............... a nett benificory so.That wasn't my point, as I said.

[osarusan]

Wasn't sure whether to put this in the 'Anglo Billions' thread or this one - this one is probably more suitable.

From RTE - http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0912/iceland.html


Iceland's former prime minister Geir Haarde and three ministers should be tried for negligence that led to the country's 2008 banking and financial meltdown, a parliamentary commission has said.

The ad hoc Special Investigation Commission blamed extreme negligence of the former conservative government for the fall of three Icelandic banks in October 2008 that led to the country's unprecedented financial crisis.

I look forward to the Irish special investigation commission reaching the same conclusions.

[Macy]

I look forward to the Irish special investigation commission reaching the same conclusions.
Pravda are all ready doing the softening up process for the results of that commission with the preemptive revisionist spin of "Freefall".