Belgium to split?

[culloty82]

There's been tension between Dutch and French speakers in Belgium for over 30 years, with separate political parties, parliaments and TV stations, but after yesterday's election, the country could finally be about to break up. The New Flemish Alliance, who want an independent Flanders became the largest party with 29 seats and the same percent of the Dutch vote, but the next PM could be the francophone Socialist leader. There's already been speculation that if Flanders does split, Brussels and Wallonia would merge with France, but given that the King is a French-speaker, it's more likely that the francophones would carry on as a smaller Belgium. No doubt the Scots, Basques and Catalans will be watching what unfolds in the coming weeks with interest.

[The Fly]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/10303179.stm

[Real ale Madrid]

Most people are totally disillusioned with the political system over here which to be fair is a bit of a shambles at the moment, too many different parties. ordinary voter on the street hasn't a clue whats going on. Most up here in Flanders viewed this NVA ( New Flemish allaince ) as extremists up until about 18 months ago. But they are capitalising on people's indifference.

I think at this stage people would like to split the country and get it over and done with. I reckon its inevitable eventually.

Not sure what relevance this has to Scots, Basques and Catalans mind you.

[John83]

I had dinner with a few Flemish Belgians I met at a conference two years ago. They said that the French speaking part was traditionally the wealthier part, but this has been reversed, and the Flemish kind of resent carrying people who traditionally looked down on them.

[Spudulika]

I know one guy who was running for the election with the Vlaams Blok (I think they're called), he's over the moon with things now, however to be honest I wouldn't like to see him and his buddies as part of a government. They're very right wing, anti-immigrant, quite racist and very much aligned with fascist parties like HDZ in Croatia. I can't see the country splitting, though stranger things have happened!

[Rasputin]

I had dinner with a few Flemish Belgians I met at a conference two years ago. They said that the French speaking part was traditionally the wealthier part, but this has been reversed, and the Flemish kind of resent carrying people who traditionally looked down on them.
Yup Wallonia was traditionally the economic heartland of Belgium being the centre of industry and Flanders being traditionally agricultural heartland with the Flemish being looked down on as Peasants.
But when heavy industry in Europe was packed off to the third world and the old industrial power houses went into decline the Flemish region over took Wallonia and Wallonia went into deep economic decline with all the problems assosciated with it.
But as was mentioned in the thread a nasty tendency of real reactionary Nationalism exists in Flemish politics, from the times of NAZI collaborators to this day with the strong far right.

[Spudulika]

Rasputin I was loathe to mention the Nazi past, the Flemish were amongst the most decorated and feared of the SS groups. That far right nonsense continues today, as I mentioned the guy I know who ran for election would have views that would kind of run along those lines. He came down to buy a place where I was living and after a bit of time with him I realised that this wasn't the kind of neighbour I'd like - and oddly enough he was in love with "Celtic" and Anglo-Saxon mythology, more "Celtic" really - and I kind of burst his bubble when I told him that "Celtic" Ireland was all a myth anyway. Maybe that's what pushed him over the top :-)

[peadar1987]

From what I know of Wallonia, it couldn't survive as an independent state, at least, not a prosperous one, so it would have to merge with France. If France don't want it, they could be in trouble.

Can anyone recall if there has ever been a case where the majority in a government has elected to cut adrift a region of the country who don't particularly want to go? I can't offhand

[Gather round]

From what I know of Wallonia, it couldn't survive as an independent state, at least, not a prosperous one, so it would have to merge with France. If France don't want it, they could be in trouble

From what I know of Wallonie (only as a tourist, so maybe less than you) it could survive pretty comfortably as an independent country. Yes, it would have economic problems in the Sambre-Meuse valley where all the closed mines are, but it's got them already. Brussels (which is mainly French-speaking) would dominate the country even more than it does now.


Can anyone recall if there has ever been a case where the majority in a government has elected to cut adrift a region of the country who don't particularly want to go? I can't offhand

Ha ha. Wallonia joining France is about as likely as Britain merging with the Republic of Ireland.

[shantykelly]

what, if any, implications would this have for the eu?

[John83]

what, if any, implications would this have for the eu?
Do you mean for the EU membership of the two spun-off states, or for Brussels as the EU headquarters? The former is unclear, and the latter would depend on the former. If the Francophone side of things (Wallonia?) is feeling a bit nationalistic, they might be a bit reluctant to join up, but it's probably an economic necessity.

[Riddickcule]

Not sure what relevance this has to Scots, Basques and Catalans mind you.
Because these 3 have significant support for a break up aswell.

[culloty82]

Do you mean for the EU membership of the two spun-off states, or for Brussels as the EU headquarters? The former is unclear, and the latter would depend on the former. If the Francophone side of things (Wallonia?) is feeling a bit nationalistic, they might be a bit reluctant to join up, but it's probably an economic necessity.

Lisbon has an article controlling how states would withdraw from the EU, so it would appear that Flanders or any other European breakaway region would remain in the EU unless they voted to leave by referendum, at least that's how I understand it.

[peadar1987]

So who else is concerned about being knocked out of the next world cup qualifiers by either Flanders or Wallonia?!

[John83]

Lisbon has an article controlling how states would withdraw from the EU, so it would appear that Flanders or any other European breakaway region would remain in the EU unless they voted to leave by referendum, at least that's how I understand it.
You may be right, but it would seem a bit strange for a new country to be automatically tied to the EU.

[Aberdonian Stu]

Actually the split from a footballing perspective would be very interesting. Particularly at club level where if the league split then it would radically reduce the overall value of each and push both down the UEFA rankings (even if one or both got 5 years grace)

[peadar1987]

Actually the split from a footballing perspective would be very interesting. Particularly at club level where if the league split then it would radically reduce the overall value of each and push both down the UEFA rankings (even if one or both got 5 years grace)

And would the leagues split? It seems to me like the situation is radically different to that in say, Montenegro, where independence was seen as freedom from Yugoslavia. Having the majority declare that Wallonia was no longer part of the country would be different. Would FIFA allow the leagues to remain unified, or demand a split?

[John83]

There's no precedent I can think of Peadar. They don't like multi-national leagues, but maybe the Belgian league would ask for an exemption given the circumstances.

[osarusan]

Lisbon has an article controlling how states would withdraw from the EU, so it would appear that Flanders or any other European breakaway region would remain in the EU unless they voted to leave by referendum, at least that's how I understand it.

I'm not sure that an article controlling the withdrawal of existing states could be applied to newly formed states though.

[culloty82]

The Belgian league is fairly short on teams from French-speaking areas, with only Anderlecht, Standard Liege, Charleroi and a newly-promoted club Eupen from Brussels-Wallonia. There were stories a few years ago that the levels below the Second Division would be regionalised, but doesn't seem to have happened yet.

[Gather round]

The Belgian league is fairly short on teams from French-speaking areas, with only Anderlecht, Standard Liege, Charleroi and a newly-promoted club Eupen from Brussels-Wallonia. There were stories a few years ago that the levels below the Second Division would be regionalised, but doesn't seem to have happened yet

Although Anderlecht is in Brussels, they have fans all over Belgium, and I think more in Flanders than Wallonia.

Eupen is a German-speaking town on the border.

[superfrank]

It'd be fairly interesting if Belgium were to break up but it seems to pose more questions than anything.

Although Brussels is mainly French-speaking, it is surrounded by Flanders. It would, in effect, be an exclave/enclave (I can't remember the right word) of Wallonia but would the Flemish accept that? Or would the EU try to make it's own independent city-state to protect the EU's operating infrastructure?

Of the few Belgians I know (all French-speaking ones), they seem to dislike Dutch/Flemish things and have more of an affinity to French culture. I'd imagine those people would rather become a part of France than have their own country. Is it different with other Walloons?

Also, what would happen to the small German-speaking region, about c. 70k. Would they be given independence or would they want to be part of Germany?

[Eminence Grise]

If Belgium does split, can we look forward to threads on the Walloon “foot.wa” site where supporters of a French-speaking OWC (Notre P’tit Pays, maybe?) ask whether it’s fair that the makey-uppy state down the road is poaching all their best underage players?

[Rasputin]

And would the leagues split? It seems to me like the situation is radically different to that in say, Montenegro, where independence was seen as freedom from Yugoslavia. Having the majority declare that Wallonia was no longer part of the country would be different. Would FIFA allow the leagues to remain unified, or demand a split?
The case for Wollonian and Flemish Nationalism is a hell of alot stronger than for Montenegrian Nationalism.

[OneRedArmy]

The case for Wollonian and Flemish Nationalism is a hell of alot stronger than for Montenegrian Nationalism......purely on the basis that the referendum was only narrowly passed in Montenegro?

You've got to remember that there are a lot of ethnic Serbs who settled in the modern Montenegro during its time as part of Yugoslavia and again immediately following the break up when they fled Kosovo, Bosnia and Croatia. This significantly impacted the referendum vote.

[Schumi]

The case for Wollonian and Flemish Nationalism is a hell of alot stronger than for Montenegrian Nationalism.
Montenegro was independent before WWI. Have Flanders or Wollonia ever been independent?

[Rasputin]

.....purely on the basis that the referendum was only narrowly passed in Montenegro?
Not really, more so on the most common bench marks academics use to denote a peoples "Nationalism" or "Nationality".
Such as Language and cultural practices and ethnicity etc.
From my limited knowledge of Montengrian Nationalism it seems to have been formed due to some brief historical incidents which helped forment an insular identity of a region that was largely accepted as just another province of Serbia.

[Rasputin]

Montenegro was independent before WWI. Have Flanders or Wollonia ever been independent?
Depends how one defines "independance".
One could argue that Flanders received a level of autonomy during the reign of the NAZI's.
Or it could be argued that long before Nation states were formed the people of Flanders were "independant" such as rabid Irish Nationalists do harking back to the pre-plantation days.
Either way its largely irrelevant whether it was once independant or not because in the wider context many more influential factors are taken into account on the forming of a National consciousness.

[culloty82]

This was written when the SNP won the Scottish election, but it seems no-one knows what would definitely happen:

http://euobserver.com/9/23197

[pineapple stu]

Can anyone recall if there has ever been a case where the majority in a government has elected to cut adrift a region of the country who don't particularly want to go? I can't offhand
There was a referendum in the Netherlands Antilles (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Netherlands_Antilles) about their status - each island voted on what it want, and one (Sint Eustatius) voted to stay within the Netherlands Antilles whereas all the rest voted to become part of the kingdom of Holland. So Sint Eustatius basically voted to remain part of a country that the other islands all voted to dissolve. It's the only thing I can think of that comes close. The country gets dissolved in October.

[culloty82]

Yes, the most boring crisis ever is still rumbling on three months later, Friday seeing the talks breaking down when the Francophone leader handed his resignation in to the King. The Dutch have also gone three months with the government, and yesterday long-time friend of foot.ie, Geert Wilders stormed out of coalition negotiations. Then again, would anyone notice the difference if we had no-one in charge !

[culloty82]

A bit of a running gag at this stage, but yesterday Belgium celebrated one year (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/12/belgian-waffle-coalition-no-closer?INTCMP=SRCH) without a government. The regional set-up is the reason it's working so well, so Spain or Germany could get away with it, but we'd collapse within days.