League of Ireland Betting [Archive]

weecountyman

11/01/2010, 3:13 PM

Top 2 I'm okay with, but Cork 3rd favourites? Do they know something punters don'? Or rather, has a little birdy in D.15 been singing to them?

Agreed on Fingal, but each way they're okay, maybe Galway might nip 3rd place, if they get lucky.

Boo_Boy

11/01/2010, 3:14 PM

fingal not a bad bet worth a tenner you never know who they could get in over the season

With mostly the same squad that struggled in the first division?

pineapple stu

11/01/2010, 3:14 PM

Jesus - 200/1 for us? There's no way we're that much of an outsider.

Schumi

11/01/2010, 3:16 PM

Jesus - 200/1 for us? There's no way we're that much of an outsider.

Looks reasonable to me, there's no way in hell we'll win the league. Plenty of the ones above us are pretty stingy though.

Acornvilla

11/01/2010, 3:17 PM

With mostly the same squad that struggled in the first division?
'm sure therel be improvments as the season progresses and they will probably be a lot more up for games this year its a very experienced squad anyway

pineapple stu

11/01/2010, 3:18 PM

Sam_Heggy

11/01/2010, 3:19 PM

fingal not a bad bet worth a tenner you never know who they could get in over the season

Would agree with you here. The Fingal squad last season were not interested in travelling to Finn Park, Limerick, etc but, when they were at the business end of the season they showed their worth beating Sligo in the cup final and Rovers on the way. They also won the promotion play-off at a canter.
Outside of that, I would say Pats could be the surprise package to Challenge and don't rule out a UCD top half finish.

Cork though at 8/1 to be in the Prem would be a better price imo.

danthesaint

11/01/2010, 3:19 PM

Agreed on Fingal, but each way they're okay, maybe Galway might nip 3rd place, if they get lucky.

they will be doing well to get a team together next season,

With mostly the same squad that struggled in the first division?
ah they have made a few good signings. reckon they will defo stay up

Jesus - 200/1 for us? There's no way we're that much of an outsider.

ah yaz are!! you will be doing well to stay up imo

Acornvilla

11/01/2010, 3:20 PM

I'd not put us that far adrift like. I'd have us up more level with Galway and Drogs. Plenty of others around 12s and 16s who aren't that far ahead of us either at the moment (Pat's being an obvious example).
well sure its good to be underestimated gives ye the element of suprise. ya might get good odds s for the first few games of the season.

pineapple stu

11/01/2010, 3:22 PM

ah yaz are!! you will be doing well to stay up imo

Wouldn't agree at all. We won away to Galway last year and topped the First Division ahead of Fingal and Shels, improving all the time. We'll improve all the time in the Premier too. We took the lead in Tallaght, although by all accounts Rovers were comfortable in the end (could have been different had their keeper been sent off though). Other teams seem to be weakening a lot, whereas we've only lost Finn (big loss) and Rocco. Those odds would have us about 8/1 to beat Pat's, and given the squad ye have so far, I'd definitely have some of that.

DmanDmythDledge

11/01/2010, 3:23 PM

Paddy Power up with prices for the Prem

Galway - 66/1
Drogheda - 150/1

Any chance of odds for Galway to be relegated or Drogs to avoid relegation (or even better markets on both :) )?

shep

11/01/2010, 3:25 PM

We have not even got a squad together yet...and we are 16's...its just the bookies playing it safe really

Schumi

11/01/2010, 3:26 PM

I'd not put us that far adrift like. I'd have us up more level with Galway and Drogs.

So would I but at odds much nearer 200/1 than 66/1.

DmanDmythDledge

11/01/2010, 3:27 PM

...its just the bookies playing it safe really
Absolutely. Clearly don't want to give Bohs or Rovers long odds and are keeping the rest with chances close together to avoid good e/w prices.

Schumi

11/01/2010, 3:28 PM

We took the lead in Tallaght, although by all accounts Rovers were comfortable in the end (could have been different had their keeper been sent off though)

Rovers were miles better than us that day, I can't see us getting anywhere near them in the league.

Clearly don't want to give Bohs or Rovers long odds
I think the Bohs and Rovers odds are pretty decent tbh, I can't see anyone else winning the league.

danthesaint

11/01/2010, 3:28 PM

Wouldn't agree at all. We won away to Galway last year and topped the First Division ahead of Fingal and Shels, improving all the time. We'll improve all the time in the Premier too. We took the lead in Tallaght, although by all accounts Rovers were comfortable in the end (could have been different had their keeper been sent off though). Other teams seem to be weakening a lot, whereas we've only lost Finn (big loss) and Rocco. Those odds would have us about 8/1 to beat Pat's, and given the squad ye have so far, I'd definitely have some of that.

that was last year tho, we got beat 4 times by galway, 4 times by rovers, 3 (i think) times by Derry. We beat a maltese and a russian team in europe. last years results are in the past. you cant base next season on last season results.

pineapple stu

11/01/2010, 3:39 PM

you cant base next season on last season results.
Way too simplistic. We've probably the least squad turnover of anyone in the Premier, for example. It's almost the same squad. We went and beat one Premier team last year away from home and gave a top Premier side a bit of a scare away from home.

So would I but at odds much nearer 200/1 than 66/1.
On the basis that both 66/1 and 200/1 mean "Not going to happen", then I've no problems with the odds per se, but rather how far adrift of everyone else we are. We should be way closer to Pat's, Dundalk and Sligo, and whether that's by lenghtening them or shortening us is just semantics. Cork's odds are just funny. :p

But as acornvilla says, it's good to be underestimated. But I wouldn't mind having us at shorter odds to massage the collective UCD ego. :)

Schumi

11/01/2010, 3:43 PM

On the basis that both 66/1 and 200/1 mean "Not going to happen", then I've no problems with the odds per se, but rather how far adrift of everyone else we are.Sure we're always under-rated (look at our own predictions at the start of last season!), it won't do us any harm.

Cork's odds are just funny. :pWhat are the odds for Bray? :D

The Lep

11/01/2010, 3:44 PM

Silly prices there, UCD won the league and are 200/1 ? Should be at least in the 20's same as us.
Bohs and Rovers will be up there again and the rest is too close to call with Derry being relegated and possibly Cork as well .
At 200/1 it could make someone a few quid before the season starts as that price will fall dramatically if UCD win their first 2 games.

danthesaint

11/01/2010, 4:28 PM

Way too simplistic. We've probably the least squad turnover of anyone in the Premier, for example. It's almost the same squad. We went and beat one Premier team last year away from home and gave a top Premier side a bit of a scare away from home.

but that was last year. waterford, limerick and monaghan gave us scares also last season. (well waterford knocked us out of the cup), we also beat a russian team, doesnt mean we are going to do that every week.

pineapple stu

11/01/2010, 4:30 PM

It means you're inconsistent, that's all. With a new manager and new players this year, that may well change. We've the same manager and the same players, so we'll be similar to last year.

GGAJD

11/01/2010, 4:37 PM

Shligo at 16's looks a good e/w.

DmanDmythDledge

11/01/2010, 4:41 PM

I think you're underestimating how big of a loss Finn is going to be, there's nobody in our midfield or attack near his level.

You compare us to Fingal and say we should be similar price but I think the main difference between the two sides last season was that I think the way we played and our strengths suited playing against weaker teams more and we were always able to put them away while Fingal were always a bit inconsistent in that regard, whether it be due to how they played or simply a lack of motivation/over-confidence. Like us, they put out a few Premier teams in the cup competitions (also I don't think the win against Galway is anything to read into, they were seemingly on top before going down to 10 men). Also, they beat us on two occasions which can't be ignored. Add in that we're minus Finn while they've added him, plus they have strengthened even more once again and I can see why they would be a lot shorter than us.

I think our price and Drogs are a bit out and as usual the person setting the odds is showing Galway bias despite strong rumours that they will be amateur next season. :)

pineapple stu

11/01/2010, 4:48 PM

I never said we should be a similar price to Fingal.

Celdrog

11/01/2010, 5:27 PM

De Town

11/01/2010, 6:22 PM

It's Rovers league imo. Will be investing a tenner on them, and a sneaky 5 e/w on ourselves.

A Sligo fan calling Shamrock Rovers "Rovers" :eek:

Hairy Bowsie

11/01/2010, 6:27 PM

Bohs will win it easily.

CF1989

11/01/2010, 6:29 PM

A Sligo fanThat's debatable

sheao

11/01/2010, 9:22 PM

8/1 with 5 players, i would like to see our odds with a full squad .

Acornvilla

11/01/2010, 9:37 PM

when will there be 1st division odds?

total hoofball

11/01/2010, 10:25 PM

when will there be 1st division odds?

from what I remember last season they came out a week or two before the season kicked off

I'd guess anyway Waterford and Derry City mk.2 will be favourites with Shels, Bray, Monaghan and Limerick behind in the odds in that order

shellshocked

11/01/2010, 10:41 PM

We are 150/1 :D
So 50/1 to finish in the top 3. So if we borrowed €5M and used €4M for wages and €1M for the bet and put the €50M winnings into the club when Paddy Power pays out, we'd still be under the 65% rule and be up €45M:D

We could build our ground then......

C'mon - its almost worked before

I was thinking that you guys were a big price especially with clouds hanging over Cork and Galway and maybe Bohs participation in the Premier league this year.. But Celdrogs plan is a beauty... :D

CMcC

12/01/2010, 8:35 AM

Those odds would have us about 8/1 to beat Pat's, and given the squad ye have so far, I'd definitely have some of that.

How do you make that out? With the overround on that market? Also you cannot compare season long odds with individual match odds - there is no comparrision in fact or odds calculations.

I think those odds are fair for UCD for finishing in the first 3. If you think they are over priced and you believe you have a chance of finishing in the top 3 then fill your boots. If on the other hand you dont fancy them over the season to be in the top 3 it doesnt matter a jot what price they are.

pineapple stu

12/01/2010, 9:06 AM

FWIW, I don't think we have the side - let alone the squad - to come third. We've a couple of fairly weak spots. But I don't see us being that far removed from everyone else. I think it'll be Bohs, Rovers and Feckall, with a gap to fourth (assuming all transfers go through).

Larry 'da' Wyse

12/01/2010, 9:08 AM

8/1 with 5 players, i would like to see our odds with a full squad .

Dunno. Galway are 66/1 even with Sean Connor's tactic of playing with 9 men from time to time:D

shep

12/01/2010, 9:32 AM

We are 150/1 :D
So 50/1 to finish in the top 3.

Sorry to be pernickity mate but 1/5 odds at 150s is only 30/1!!!

CMcC

12/01/2010, 10:27 AM

Pats at 12's and Dundalk at 16's look interesting with Cork possibly gone, Derry obviously already down, Fingal who I dont fancy, Galway's possibly small squad with the spoofer there.

Sligo I just dont know about.

Pats are skimpy enough but if there was slightly better around I maybe tempted to have a nibble at say 14's each way.

If Dundalk slipped out anymore I would also have a cut.

eL Bettor

12/01/2010, 2:16 PM

Sorry to be pernickity mate but 1/5 odds at 150s is only 30/1!!!

And due to it being each way rather than place betting, you'll have the losing "win" part of the bet so assuming they dont win the league you're only getting 15/1 on them coming 2nd or 3rd.

KUFCMan

12/01/2010, 4:22 PM

Boyles Latest Betting

7-5 Bohs
13-8 Shams
7 Fingal
11 Pats
11 Cork
16 Sligo
25 Dundalk
50 Drogs
100 Galway
100 UCD

E/W 1/5 1.2 AND 3

Raheny Red

12/01/2010, 5:10 PM

With UCD at 200/1 I'd love to see what they are at in the handicap markey.

Weatherman

12/01/2010, 9:04 PM

Fingal are an absolute steal for the title!!!!

Dodge

12/01/2010, 9:19 PM

I'd not put us that far adrift like. I'd have us up more level with Galway and Drogs. Plenty of others around 12s and 16s who aren't that far ahead of us either at the moment (Pat's being an obvious example).

YOur odds don't represent your chances of winning. They represent the odds that PP (or JC_gufc) think will earn them the most money, with the least amount of risk.

If 50 Pats fans stick a tenner on Pats @ 12/1 and you're the only bloke sticking a tenner on UCD @ 200/1, the odds on Pats will go down. Regardless of who they sign

Acornvilla

12/01/2010, 10:13 PM

Eh when they couldn't win the first division with the squad they had last year, they'll hardly win the Premier.
well did you see rovers being as good or pats being as bad last year? stranger things have happened sir

Acornvilla

12/01/2010, 10:38 PM

Yes actually.

Rovers being bouyed by Tallaght and home support were always tipped for success, even when there were doubts over O'Neill at the time.

Pats had their budget slashed, and I never liked Kenna so..
fair enough:o
still as i said further down the threat they have experienced and tallented well capable for this level and also have the ability to improve the squad damiticly if needs be and you never know what king of spport they could drum up if the get on a good start and the european games will raise their profile also

Sam_Heggy

13/01/2010, 8:49 AM

Eh when they couldn't win the first division with the squad they had last year, they'll hardly win the Premier.

But didn't they win the cup?

pineapple stu

13/01/2010, 8:52 AM

YOur odds don't represent your chances of winning. They represent the odds that PP (or JC_gufc) think will earn them the most money, with the least amount of risk.

If 50 Pats fans stick a tenner on Pats @ 12/1 and you're the only bloke sticking a tenner on UCD @ 200/1, the odds on Pats will go down. Regardless of who they sign
True, I suppose.

So what the odds really show is that we've the fewest fans, and by extension the fewest fans who have an over-inflated view of our club. I can live with that. :)

JC_GUFC

13/01/2010, 9:48 AM

At this stage of the close season the odds are really a reflection on the expected squads each team will have.

Cork may be in a shambles at the minute but the fact is that very few of their players have signed for any other clubs so chances are they could have a majority of the squad that came 3rd last season.

UCD on the other hand have lost their best player and have virtually no buying power compared to the other Dublin clubs.

Even the situation at Bohs is a bit unclear and there's a chance that by the time the league starts Rovers will actually be favourites - or even Fingal!!!