Brian Lenihan reported to have pancreatic cancer

[Poor Student]

http://tv3.ie/article.php?article_id=28526&locID=1.2.&pagename=news

According to wikipedia pancreatic cancer has a 5 year survival rate of less than 5% and a median survival rate of 3-6 months.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancreatic_cancer

[weecountyman]

I hope this isn't true, I'd a tutor who passed away from the same and it was horrific. It spreads so quickly. I wonder is it a genetic thing, Brian Sr. died of liver or pancreatic cancer I think.

[Ringo]

I think TV3 were to break this. If its true , he's very little chance of survival. Very tabloid the way the news was given on the TV3 news. Even Moan Burton thought it was wrong.

[Angus]

Firstly and primarily this is a human and personal and family issue. Davin Power used the word "serious" on the RTE news earlier, so that is, de fact, serious.

There are clearly political implications but I would suggest that we defer any discussion thereof until we know more - any other course of action would be imappropriate

[Mr A]

Not quite sure what all the anger is about. If the second most important politician in the state is seriously ill then there is a public interest in the story. Plus they held it for two days before releasing.

Didn't see the actual report so can't comment on the style of it however.

Edit: Watched the report. **** poor standard from the reporter but nothing earth shatteringly unfair I thought.

[DmanDmythDledge]

Can't agree with you Mr.A to be honest. His illness must have been leaked by somebody working at the hospital before he got a chance to publicly announce it himself when he is ready to so that's an intrusion right there as far as I'm concerned. There's more than that to consider though, with the timing of the alleged diagnosis (Christmas time) it's quite possible that perhaps he has not told his children yet.

Also, he would be perfectly entitled to never make it publicly if he so wished. It's his private life and he should decide what parts of that are made public.

[brianw82]

I agree with Mr. A in that it most definitely is a story that is of interest to the public, he is the 2nd most important politician in the state after all.
Having said that, I agree with Dman in that if this news were to be made public, it should have been allowed to come from the Lenihan camp directly.

[Fr Damo]

His illness must have been leaked by somebody working at the hospital before he got a chance to publicly announce it himself when he is ready to so that's an intrusion right there as far as I'm concerned.

Also, he would be perfectly entitled to never make it publicly if he so wished. It's his private life and he should decide what parts of that are made public.



Or someone in FF. It seems (according to the indo today) quite a few within the party were aware prior to 24/12/09.

Irrespective of that, I think TV3 should not have broadcast this news for one reason only. It is xmas time, and I'm sure Mr Lenihan viwed this week as a week away from the cameras. He desrves the time "off" after what has been a very tough year for him personally even before this medical news. Then come Jan 2nd 2010, yes it is fair to say, it is in the National Interest.

I wish him the best of luck, and my thoughts are with his wife and two children.

[Angus]

You are both right - this is both a private matter and also in the public interest - counterintuitive as it seems

This had to be made public but you would have expected a lot more than the 2 days that TV3 "gave" him - he should have been given time to inform the public in a time convenient for him

[Macy]

It should've been held until this week, as seems to have been agreed but was broken by TV3. But I can't see how it's not in the public's interests to know.

[Fr Damo]

I read today, he says he'll be making a statement tomorrow on the course of treatment etc and expects to be able to fill his duties certainly for the first two quarters of 2010. I don't want to sound selfish here but we certainly need him somewhere near the helm over the next while.

[NeilMcD]

No we don't we need that party out of government as soon as possible. Get him and his mates out of government asap. May he recover from his illness though to have many years in opposition.

[Macy]

I don't want to sound selfish here but we certainly need him somewhere near the helm over the next while.
Because he's done such a good job while able to fully concentrate on the job?

[Fr Damo]

Simply because we aren't going to have an election anytime soon and the fact remains he is one of the best politicans in this Dail. & yes he has had a good 12 months IMO! (professionally speaking) He was rowing the boat when the sh*t was stirring, but not at the helm.

I thought this was about Mr Lenihan anyway, not FF or elections! There are many other threads to discuss those topics.
I'd perfer to See FF with him than without him. I've nuff said!

[Macy]

Simply because we aren't going to have an election anytime soon and the fact remains he is one of the best politicans in this Dail. & yes he has had a good 12 months IMO! (professionally speaking) He was rowing the boat when the sh*t was stirring, but not at the helm.
Which one of the three budgets he delivered in the last 12 months good? Is NAMA, which still hasn't happened, good? I hope he gets better, and only wish him political ill, but his political elevation (from an already unfounded high) since St Stephens Day is ridiculous.

[Fr Damo]

Macy...
As far as i can remember his first budget was Oct 08, second was April 09 and third was dec 09. Think that's two budgets in 12 months. (and you know it too)

The last one (dec 09 for clarity!) was very tough and yes some aspects seem harsh but all he did was take away from some areas of our spending that quite honestly wouldn't/shouldn't have received or attained the level, if managed correctly over the "boom" years. in other words, shouldn't have been there in the first place!
I was out on the 26th ( PI$$ED) and at lunchtime 27Th when I turned on the text and read the storey, the first thing I thought of, was the budget and what would happen, and then where would it leave Ireland Inc. This gut feeling was replaced by my hopes he makes a good recovery from a personal perspective. I think your view that he has received some sort of political evalation is quite honestly childish. When appointed by Bertie as Justice minister he was applauded into office by his piers all accross the house. He's in the top 5 in terms of ability up there IMO.

As for NAMA, I agree, we have been sold a pup ( not going to discuss it here)

[Macy]

Macy...
As far as i can remember his first budget was Oct 08, second was April 09 and third was dec 09. Think that's two budgets in 12 months. (and you know it too)
You forgot the february one that cut spending and introduced the "pension" levy, so no, I wasn't counting the October 2008 farce.


I was out on the 26th ( PI$$ED) and at lunchtime 27Th when I turned on the text and read the storey, the first thing I thought of, was the budget and what would happen, and then where would it leave Ireland Inc. This gut feeling was replaced by my hopes he makes a good recovery from a personal perspective. I think your view that he has received some sort of political evalation is quite honestly childish. When appointed by Bertie as Justice minister he was applauded into office by his piers all accross the house. He's in the top 5 in terms of ability up there IMO.
I suppose you could argue he's amongst the best of a bad lot on the Government benches, but imo he's Cowen mark II. You yourself are calling his one big idea a "pup".

[Fr Damo]

You forgot the february one that cut spending and introduced the "pension" levy, so no, I wasn't counting the October 2008 farce.


I suppose you could argue he's amongst the best of a bad lot on the Government benches, but imo he's Cowen mark II. You yourself are calling his one big idea a "pup".

Wouldn't have regarded the levy as a budget as it didn't do anything on the expenditure side, nor did it effect 1.5m in the private sector at that time but take your underlying point. Again I would defend him saying our expenditure was based income from on the three card trick of property and associated taxes, (stamp, VAT, Capital Gains etc) and not something he designed.

We agree on NAMA.

[bennocelt]

Simply because we aren't going to have an election anytime soon and the fact remains lhe is one of the best politicans in this Dai. & yes he has had a good 12 months IMO! (professionally speaking) He was rowing the boat when the sh*t was stirring, but not at the helm.

I thought this was about Mr Lenihan anyway, not FF or elections! There are many other threads to discuss those topics.
I'd perfer to See FF with him than without him. I've nuff said!

If so then why did he have to reduce the VAT and Social Welfare? Rectifying his mistakes that have cost the state well over 4 million and over 30,000 jobs (border shopping, etc)

[Fr Damo]

I cannot believe this.
The main problem was the euro verses sterling. Wages. Rents etc etc.

Do you think the 1/2 % he increased last year and the 2.5% cut the Brits implemented drove the shoppers north? Seriously? To start with there is no VAT on food, so it made zero difference to the price. Therefore no contribution lost or gained when people went to Tesco etc up there. That aside, the revenue lost was about 900m as far as I know so 15% was tax to HRM customs when perhaps 21.5% of the 900m could have stayed in the south.

You say 30000 jobs lost as a result of cross boarder shopping? I'd like that proven please.
And finally, as per my last post, Mr Lenihan, is trying to make some amends for the niave, idiotic and childish mistakes of his predessors (McCreevey and Cowan, Cowan who was guided by Bertie but not innocent by any stretch) as they bought votes. Some aspects of Social welfare had to be cut, the gap between min wage and the dole was / is too close.

[superfrank]

What do people think about him staying on while receiving treatment? I read somewhere else he'll have to cut back on his hours as well.

I think someone else should come in, at least for the short term.

[mypost]

Simply because we aren't going to have an election anytime soon and the fact remains he is one of the best politicans in this Dail. & yes he has had a good 12 months IMO! (professionally speaking) He was rowing the boat when the sh*t was stirring, but not at the helm.


Best politicians? Lets see.

He was given the job of finance minister with no qualifications for the role. He was a barrister, not an accountant. This is someone who doesn't fully read financial reports, and "welcomed" a highly critical IMF report on this country last year.

The figures he calculated his first budget on, were wildly way off the mark. So bad, that he needed to introduce a pension levy, and an emergency budget within 6 months. None of which contributed to cutting the public deficit. In fact, it increased it by 2 billion.

NAMA has been established involving €54 billion, while this week, the first of his fines in his latest budget kick in. Hitting the lowest rung of society by €8 per week, and only if they are over 25. Even more draconian if you're under it. Interesting to see him praising his doctors in his radio interview. The very same doctors he's hitting in the pocket again this week.

Last January, Superquinn reacted to cross-border shopping, by closing their Dundalk branch. People are going to the UK to shop, but people will shop around for the best value. Germany is surrounded by cheaper non-Euro neighbours, however I've yet to see millions of Herren flocking to Poland, Czech Republic, Denmark, or Switzerland for cheaper goods every weekend, or when on strike. And Germany isn't the cheapest country in the world.

His illness should not deflect from the fact he has been completely incompetent in his role to date. And only when Bruton or the Banshee get in, who've some knowledge of what they're talking about, will we see some form of recovery.

[Macy]

What do people think about him staying on while receiving treatment? I read somewhere else he'll have to cut back on his hours as well.
I'd be very sceptical, after witnessing close relatives going through Chemo, and one of them Chemo and Radiation at the same time. The effects may vary, but it is sure they'll be some effect. What happens if there's some crisis on one of the days he's suffering?


His illness should not deflect from the fact he has been completely incompetent in his role to date.
Hear hear. He's made a complete balls of the banks, from the bank guarantee, the nationalisation of Anglo, and NAMA. And still his stated aim of a properly functioning banking sector has not happened.


Wouldn't have regarded the levy as a budget as it didn't do anything on the expenditure side, nor did it effect 1.5m in the private sector at that time but take your underlying point.
The "pension" levy was only part of a package of expenditure cuts. It's the one that got the headlines - cuts in the early childcare supplement weren't public sector only, and Farm waste management payment delays didn't hit the public sector. But anyway, that's what I was counting as the three, which was the main point.


Again I would defend him saying our expenditure was based income from on the three card trick of property and associated taxes, (stamp, VAT, Capital Gains etc) and not something he designed.
He was lucky he wasn't a member of the Government benches, and a Junior Minister, who voted for all those policies....

[Fr Damo]

[QUOTE=mypost;1300027]Best politicians? Lets see.

He was given the job of finance minister with no qualifications for the role. He was a barrister, not an accountant. This is someone who doesn't fully read financial reports, and "welcomed" a highly critical IMF report on this country last year.



While obvioulsy it would help and certainly give the economy stupid "re assurance" if he was an qualified charterd accountant but know plenty of accountants who couldn't manage a a nun shoot in an nunnery to coin one of my favorite sayings. At his level of delegation he does not need to know any of the FRS rules on financial reporting.
On the IMF, why wouldn't he welcome it, it gave him the leverage to implement some of the actions carried out in the last 12 months. Most of which obviously I support (i'm not FF, in fact I voted labour last time)



The figures he calculated his first budget on, were wildly way off the mark. So bad, that he needed to introduce a pension levy, and an emergency budget within 6 months. None of which contributed to cutting the public deficit. In fact, it increased it by 2 billion.


Alot of this was some poor take on VAT returns due to, VRT, and huge increases in social welfare spend after the builders holiday that started on dec 23 2008. It limited the increase in public deficit to 2" billion


NAMA has been established involving €54 billion, while this week, the first of his fines in his latest budget kick in. Hitting the lowest rung of society by €8 per week, and only if they are over 25. Even more draconian if you're under it. Interesting to see him praising his doctors in his radio interview. The very same doctors he's hitting in the pocket again this week.

I think NAMA valuations (on which the whole concepts pivots) are more than questionable and worry. However, property prices do return so if it means waiting 12 years instead of ten then so be it. I don't know the fine details on it, obviously few do due to the manner it was pushed through. My only hope on it Alan Ahearn isn't far away. Did Morgan Kelly publish his yet?

On the social, IMO, it had to be cut, as per my previous posts.


Germany is surrounded by cheaper non-Euro neighbours, however I've yet to see millions of Herren flocking to Poland, Czech Republic, Denmark, or Switzerland for cheaper goods every weekend, or when on strike. And Germany isn't the cheapest country in the world.

Surprised at you mypost. Germany has 60million huns, the vast majority live Rhine Rhur and through the center. Are they going to drive for two days for cheap Pop and Ice cream? Na.
Do they on the borders? Dunno but probably!
How many southerners as a % of 4millon travel on a monthly basis? I would say 4% i.e 100,000.

Bruton I have lots of time for, god help us if Labour get in (with FF or FG) cos the Unions will hinder any form of recovery.

[Fr Damo]

He was lucky he wasn't a member of the Government benches, and a Junior Minister, who voted for all those policies....


Is that a question, a statement, opinion or.........

That's twice in two days you've used sarcasm against me Macy, although you use it as a line of war far against "stupidity" as you put it, it's disingenuous IMO.
Your sentiment casts an opinion that you are more superior than every body in the FF Government of now now and old. May I suggest, you stop reading that Dunuphy wanna be, Dave Mc-Whats-his-face.

[Macy]

You are exempting him from responsibility because he wasn't in Finance. He has collective responsibility for those decisions as he voted for them, and was a member of the Government that made them. He was complicit in the three card trick that you say wasn't his making.

[Fr Damo]

You are exempting him from responsibility because he wasn't in Finance. He has collective responsibility for those decisions as he voted for them, and was a member of the Government that made them. He was complicit in the three card trick that you say wasn't his making.
Thank you.

I don't support FF (as I keep saying) and do you think a back bencher would have any sway at cabinate level with B Ahearn, C McCreevy and a vew others holding the power. They were all close to Charlie, P Flynn et all and would have got no soot.
All I am saying is if B Lenihan was in the dail perhaps 5 years earlier, (i.e 1990) he would have been closer to the cabinate when this kicked off in 97 and I honestly believe in this chaps ability and integrety that I don't believe we would have made such a bo*ix of things with him and a couple of others.
He is streets ahead of Ahern (a PR Master) and Cowan (obviously intellectual but with no back bone or leadership).


What do people think about him staying on while receiving treatment? I read somewhere else he'll have to cut back on his hours as well.

I think someone else should come in, at least for the short term.

I think for now, things will be okay but agree that as time elapses things will get difficult for him. Yes, it would make sence to have someone else lined up as planned B but I worry who? I hear he rand Richard Bruton and Joan burton on Sunday night to explain things prior to his press conference. Could they be allowed to have an input on managing or who they want to work within the FF policies even from a far?
In the National interest of course.

[Macy]

He was a Junior Minister, so he was a member of Government. Irrespective, there were plenty of people saying the direction being taken was wrong. So he either wasn't paying attention and just followed the whip, or he agreed with the policies. Either way he is culpable.

If he's not capable to do his job during treatment it's up to FF to step up, not the opposition. That's just the FF wet dream of a national government by the back door - shared responsibility for having to clear up their mess.

[bennocelt]

Another mess from the budget was the increasing of home fuels - Coal, Brickets, etc
Just got some Polish coal today - a full bag for 13 Euros, in shops its 17/18. All the way from Poland. Everyone around here is buying Polish coal and brickets - hilarious stuff when you consider Bord na Mona are only up the road!!!!

[John83]

Another mess from the budget was the increasing of home fuels - Coal, Brickets, etc
Just got some Polish coal today - a full bag for 13 Euros, in shops its 17/18. All the way from Poland. Everyone around here is buying Polish coal and brickets - hilarious stuff when you consider Bord na Mona are only up the road!!!!
All the more so when you consider the disastrous consequences of rising fuel costs for the elderly poor in one of the coldest Christmas periods I can remember.

[mypost]

All I am saying is if B Lenihan was in the dail perhaps 5 years earlier, (i.e 1990) he would have been closer to the cabinate when this kicked off in 97 and I honestly believe in this chaps ability and integrety that I don't believe we would have made such a bo*ix of things with him and a couple of others.

The Lenihan's have had someone in the Dail for the past 30-40 years. 3 of them are in the present Dail. 2 of them are in the current cabinet. You won't get more experience than them.

And they still can't run the country well.

[Fr Damo]

The Lenihan's have had someone in the Dail for the past 30-40 years. 3 of them are in the present Dail. 2 of them are in the current cabinet. You won't get more experience than them.

And they still can't run the country well.
Old B Lenihan was way before my time and cannot comment. Wouldn't have been a fan however, sterotypical I think of FF during the 60s, 70s and early 80s.
Conor Lenihan, is his brother and off topic.
Brain Lenihan was a the "leading edge" (sarcasm Macy) of political decesions during his time as a back bencher from 96-2002 and thrust forward into the sharp end as "Minister for Children" from 02-07. In 2007 he was promted by Bertie in a reshuffle to Justice minister (to much applause in the house) and when Bertie finally went in 08 Biffo made him No.2. The brown stuff was well and truly on the fan blades at that stage.


He was a Junior Minister, so he was a member of Government. Irrespective, there were plenty of people saying the direction being taken was wrong. So he either wasn't paying attention and just followed the whip, or he agreed with the policies. Either way he is culpable.

If he's not capable to do his job during treatment it's up to FF to step up, not the opposition. That's just the FF wet dream of a national government by the back door - shared responsibility for having to clear up their mess.

So you would rather let FF make a complete and utter Balls (instead of just a Balls) of things by giving Dempsey, D Ahern or Hanifin a whirl? (these clowns are going full term!)
The is about now, perception is reality, the markets have faith in Lenihan's actions (iseq up 5% on the back of CRH and the banks yesterday) this means banks "might" be able to borrow from abroad again and money "might" free up. Lots of ifs I knoiw but it's better than, " Mr Bank Manager can I have 10k overdraft till June please" and the Answer being a straight "no."

I'd be worried that without B Lenihan for say 6months or a very credible replacement, the recovery could be delayed another year or two and as people are saying 2011/12 I'd be fearful of what another year or two will do.
I suppose that's my underlying point on all this and will leave it there!

[mypost]

Saying that there will be recovery in 2011/12 is imo, hopelessly optimistic.

[Fr Damo]

Fair enough, think there is another thread(s) on that one. A general election or a "less credible" finance minister might mean it takes longer than our current course, that's all I ment.

[dahamsta]

Recovery is a matter of definition and, has been said, belongs in another thread. Back on topic please.

Personally I'm finding it hard to believe that the political kingdoms that are partly responsible for Ireland's continued corruption and incompetence appear to be a-ok with some.

[Fr Damo]

Adam,

Political kingdom, you mean FF, right, and not Lenihan/ORourke? I'll be voting them out like the rest of us come the time. For now I think we have trimmed the aircraft to ride the turbalance. Alter the configeration and we could end up falling like a stone.
We may never have majority government in this country, if Brian Lenihan was independant i'd like to see him at the top table, that all.

[dahamsta]

Political kingdom, you mean FF, right, and not Lenihan/ORourke?I mean all of them, in every party. Open your eyes man.

[Fr Damo]

Shane Ross is of the same of view of myself..... not that it means i'm right or anything but but I value his views, & confirms, maybe to myself alone, I'm not completly mad!

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/shane-ross/shane-ross-taoiseach-in-all-but-name-2007137.html

Someone said here last week that Lenihan wasn't qualified to be in charge of the books because he wasn't an accountant, an accountant like Haughy, McCreevey and Ahern (who I think was a book keeper, nothing wrong with that btw) so it's fairly clear accounts don't make the best ministers of Finance!!

[NeilMcD]

Wow shock horror, you value someone who has the same view as yourself!!! Now there is a turn up for the books.

When the whole cut cut cut argument was being put forward by Lenihan and others, and you agreed. I think I said that the problem was that it was an accountants budget. In that it makes sense on balance sheet level but not at societal level.

Also Shane Ross thinks its more important that the Minister for Finance talks to him than go to other more important meetings. Shane Ross is a cheer leader of right wing free market ultra capilasim so of course he is going to cheer lead a minister who believes in this also.

[Fr Damo]

When the whole cut cut cut argument was being put forward by Lenihan and others, and you agreed. I think I said that the problem was that it was an accountants budget. In that it makes sense on balance sheet level but not at societal level.

I could draw a football comparision very easily Neil. Pat Fenlon / Dundee United. For the greater good and interests of P Fenlon, and on the back of all he has done for Bohs shouldn't ye have let him persue pastures new rather than bohs very short term objective (survival), that without him and a bad year, you guys are the next big club to go bang? (by all accounts that could happen with him too!)

We are obviously polar opposites on Lenihan (and I would say other issues) when words such as right wing and capitalism are mentioned much emotion takes hold (on all sides) I maintain what I said regarding integraty and ability and I believe his decesions are as close to money as anybody else in that house. Who would you have in the hot seat (out of them all) and what policies would you like to implement?

[NeilMcD]

I dont see what the football comparison is to do with anything. Firstly you dont even know if I agree with Bohs views on it and secondly it no way ties into the quote you used from me there. The job of Bohs is to Bohs, not to society, whereas the job of the government is to society, but they only look at the economy all the time, and when I say economy, I mean balance sheet view of economy.

Well number one I would not have Fianna Fail anywhere near the government to be honest. I would not have them anywhere near it for a very very long time.

So its a bit like the person who is asked for directions, and he says i would not start from here.

I think both Joan Burton and Richard Bruton would do a better job that is been done at the moment. That is not to say they are perfect. A few things, I think the government have got wrong in recent times. Even when they have got decisions right, they have got them politically wrong. They would have achieved more lasting cuts in the public service if they had of led from the front and taken big cuts in TD wages and high public servant wages from the start.

Secondly, ideologically Lenihan wanted wages cut across the board, but ran with the view that he wanted a reduction in the public service costs of 1.3m, however when that was proven that it could be achieved without pay cuts for the lower and medium paid, he was not interested as it did not fit into his ideologyo that the way out of this is to cut wages across the board both private and public. The public were led to believe that somehow cutting wages in the public service would keep the wages and jobs safe in the private sector. In fact the opposite will happen, as less spending will happen from public servants with less money. Even those that do have money will now save more and not spend as much as they have bee threatend by Lenihan and others that more pay cuts will happen next year if they do not agree to reform, the same reform that was on the table back in the talks.

Basically we are being led by ideology over humanity. The talk of Leniham as somehow a genius or the intellect of the Dail is rubbish. He was floundering at the start and needed basic economic lessons by Mc Williams and others. If he was that hard working and that much of a genius he would have been preparing for this before the **** hit the fan.

[osarusan]

The third line from the quoted article is this:

Lineage once gave you a leg up in Irish politics, but no more.
It's hard to take somebody seriously who writes a line like that while being aware of Councillor Michael Healy-Rae.