2010 qualifying latest

[pineapple stu]

Is there a thread on this? Seem to remember a continuous one for previous campaigns.

Anyways, all the confederations are entering the closing stages. Some unusual teams going to be in South Africa, it seems, including the possibility of some more new teams (there's never been a World Cup yet without a debutante team)

Qualified already are -
South Africa
Japan
Australia
South Korea
Holland
North Korea
Brazil
Ghana
England
Spain
Paraguay

North Korea last played in 1966, South Africa last played in 2002 and all the others were in Germany.

In Africa, the Ivory Coast are all but through. Cameroon beat Gabon last week; Gabon, who've never qualified, had been two points clear. Egypt host Algeria on the last day, with the winner probably taking all. Algeria go through if it's a draw; they haven't featured since 1986.

In Asia, Bahrain beat Saudi Arabia in a play-off and meet New Zealand in another play-off next month. Saudi Arabia made it 2-1 on aggregate in the 91st minute of the second leg only for Bahrain to equalise in the 94th minute. Bahrain have never qualified, New Zealand played in 1982.

In North and Central America, Mexico recovered from their bad start - three defeats in four - and are nearly through along with the US. Honduras (last qualified in 1982) are in the third spot a point ahead of Costa Rica; both have to play America. Third qualifies; fourth gets into a play-off against South America.

In South America, Argentina are only in the play-off spot (having won their first three games) and have to play Peru at home (should win) and then Uruguay away, where anything could happen. Argentina last didn't qualify in 1970. Venezuela, the only team from South America never to have qualified, are at home to already qualified Paraguay and away to already qualified Brazil; they're a point off the play-off and two off automatic qualification.

Finally, in Europe, Latvia - who've never qualified - are just one goal behind Greece in the race for a play-off spot; Greece v Latvia is next up. Portugal could sneak a play-off spot as they're home to Malta and Hungary, by far the easiest run-in; Sweden could miss out if they lose in Denmark. A draw in Slovenia will see Slovakia qualify for the first time ever. Russia host Germany next month with the winners probably qualifying automatically. If Bosnia & Herzegovina, who've never qualified, win in Estonia, they'll confirm a play-off spot. If France beat the Faroes at home, they'll confirm their play-off spot. If Brian Kerr manages the unthinkable, France would play Austria, with defeat sending them out altogher.

Top scorer in the whole World Cup so far is Osea Vakatalesau of Fiji with 12, albeit with 6 against Tuvalu.

[superfrank]

I'd love it if Gabon if got through. David Cousin is one of my favourite strikers of all time.

It'd be great to see the likes of Latvia and Slovakia make it. Latvia were rather unlucky in Euro 2004. Beaten 2-1 by Czech Rep after leading 1-0 at half-time and then drew 0-0 with Germany when they had two desent penalty shouts turned down, iirc.

New Zealand were a horrible side to watch at the Confed Cup.

[bennocelt]

It's awesome that North Korea are there, it sets up so many possibilities............will they win the thing (via North Korean TV)...will they have their own verison of effents....and what happens if they draw thew USA

[centre mid]

South Korea v North Korea final is a certainty.

[DaveyCakes]

....and what happens if they draw thew USA

That would be brilliant. Remember Iran v USA in 98(?), hillarious stuff.:D

[DeLorean]

David Cousin is one of my favourite strikers of all time.

Are you actually serious and do you mean Daniel Cousin?

[superfrank]

Yeah, Daniel Cousin. :o

[Closed Account 2]

what about my cousin Kevin... he's very good at subbuteo.

Serbia v France group looks interesting, could be a Bosnia / Serbia / Croatia / Slovenija play-off.

The match to watch will be Russia v Germany on a winters night in the Luzniki. I think the old Lenin stadium could witness another Red October... I fancy the Russians to sneak it and put the Germans into the playoffs.

[Zizou]

Please tell me some of you guys watched Argentina last night????
Drama of the sort your highest paid Hollywood hacks couldn't write!
A nervous start, a debut goal, a tropical storm, a last minute equaliser, a country and a legend on the brink of destruction, a 35 year old forgotten striker, Diego doing a Klinnsman!! UNREAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Closed Account 2]

Certainly did, I thought the Peruvians had made it 2-2 when the guy punted it right from kick off.

[Zizou]

Certainly did, I thought the Peruvians had made it 2-2 when the guy punted it right from kick off.
That was some effort!! Delighted for Diego. I see them losing on Wed but Bielsa doing them a favour against Ecuador. Argentina-Honduras play-off.

[NeilMcD]

Just heard an amazing Stat.

Germany have never lost an away world cup qualifying match. They have only ever lost 2 matches in all world cup qualifying.

Russia lost their first ever home world cup qualifying and that is including when they were USSR too.

[pineapple stu]

Wow.

Was it Portugal and the North who beat Germany?

[Closed Account 2]

Pretty sure one of the two was the english in 2001 ?

[pineapple stu]

Oh yeah.

The North beat them in euro 84 qualifying apparently. Must be getting mixed up with that.

[Gather round]

Oh yeah. The North beat them in euro 84 qualifying apparently. Must be getting mixed up with that

We beat them both home and away in that series. Deutschlands angstgegner :)

[Metrostars]

Honduras qualify for the first time since 1982... in quite dramatic fashion too, with Costa Rica beating the US 2-0 in the first half, then Bradley scores for USA, then they're down to 10 men after they use their 3 subs and Onyewu stretchered off. Ticos time wasting, 5 minutes of injury time, all they had to do was hold off the last corner kick. You know what happens with about 20 seconds left injury time, USA scores it's 2-2. Honduras are in, Ticos to play Uruguay in the playoff.

[endabob1]

Of the 23 already confirmed for 2010 17 are back from 2006.

Considering there are 200ish countries entering, the same countries are qualifying year in year out, is International football becoming as staid and predictable as club football?

[pineapple stu]

I don't think that's fair.

First off, we've never had a World Cup with no debutantes, and Slovakia have ensured that'll continue. That's an impressive stat.

Secondly, four years is too short a time-span to judge international trends; a team will last for four years. Look at those countries who haven't made it - Sweden, Belgium, Poland, Bulgaria, Croatia, Turkey, Cech Republic - some decent teams not going to South Africa. All bar Bulgaria and the Czechs were at the 2002 World Cup, for example. International football will ebb and flow, as we nkow ourselves, but it'll do so over a longer time span than four years.

[endabob1]

Well Concaf is going to be USA, Mexico & 1 other
South America is going to be Brazil, Argentina & 2/3 Others plus Paraguay have now been 3 times in a row I think
Asia will be Japan, Australia, South Korea & 1/2 Others
Europe will probably be France, Italy, Spain, England, Germany, Holland, Portugal (over half our allocation right there) Since it went to 32 teams only Holland & Portugal have missed the finals from that group
Africa is probably the most open, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Nigeria & Egypt are probably the big 5 but you will always get a couple of other well drilled teams with 1 or 2 names coming to the fore like Togo & Senegal have done recently.
But the point is that with the number of teams entering basically I would say a minimum of 50% of the places are pretty much sewn up before qualifaction even starts.

[pineapple stu]

There'll always be big countries, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's staid and predictable.

You mention Ghana and the Ivory Coast as two of the big countries in Africa, for example. They qualified for the first time in 2006. Nigeria and Egypt are on the verge of missing out for the third and fifth successive time respectively. The countries who would qualify at their expense - Tunisia and Algeria - would in previous years have been in your list of the big five African countries, along with Morocco. That's just normal flux.

In asia, Japan's first World Cup was 2002, and 2006 was Australia's first since 1974. North Korea haven't been in since 1966. Honduras from Central America haven't been in since 1982. Chile in South America haven't been in since 1998.

[endabob1]

It's only since the expansion to 32 teams that Africa & indeed Asia have had anything like a fair representation at the WC.
Ghana's domestic league is one of the strongest in Africa; Ivory Coast I'll grant yo uare fiarly new to the big name list but they've been one of the best sides in Africa for the best part of a decade.
Maybe I'm wrong but I get fed up seeing the same old sides there time & time again. An interesting stat would be the number of different teams in the last 8 of the last 3 world cups. I suspect there would be a fair few repeat offenders

[pineapple stu]

Given African and - in particular - Asian nations' performances at recent World Cups, I'd have to disagree that they now have fair representation.

In the last 8 in the last three World Cups, you've had -

Argentina x 2
Brazil x 3
Croatia
Denmark
England x 2
France x 2
Germany x 3
Holland
Italy x 2
Portugal
Senegal
South Korea
Spain
Turkey
Ukraine
United States

16 countries in 24 spots, and only six repeat offenders. Not bad, I think. Go back to 1994 and you find Sweden, Romania and Bulgaria. In 1990, you had Ireland, Cameroon, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. I think that's quite a good mix of regulars and upstarts.

[endabob1]

Actually that's not a bad mix but really you have 8 spots and 6 repeats, 2 have been there all 3 times so I would say you can almost guarantee that half of the quarter finalists will come from those 6 teams.

To me it's becoming like the Premiership, Serie A, La Liga a handful of teams capable and they are pretty much set in stone.

I meant in terms of pure numbers as much as anything else, Africa have had a lot of success at the Olympics & to a lesser degree at World Cups (apart from the last word cup you have to go packed to the rigged West Germany v Austria game in 82 for the last World Cup where an African team failed to progress beyond the group stages). I expect Ghana & Ivory Coast to make a real impact next year and wouldn't be surprised to see an African Semi-Finalist.
The Asians progress is slightly stilted by the occasional battering, particularly evident when Japan/Korea hosted it meant you had much weaker Asian sides, China & the Saudi's bt Japan especially are no mugs.

[pineapple stu]

But you'll always have the big countries. Nothing wrong with that. And if half of the last 8 comes from the big 8 (say the six repeats plus Spain and Holland), then you've half of the last eight who are rotating underdogs. That's not bad at all. Really the only thing the World Cup has lacked is a surprise winner, or even a surprise finalist. The likes of Croatia, south Korea, Turkey, Sweden and Bulgaria have all reached the semis in recent years, but none have made the next step.

African nations do well in the Olympics in part because it's an underage tournament, and Africans have notoriously shady age records. And I think by saying that you half expect an African side to make the semis - which none has ever done - you're undermining your predictableness argument to a degree.

[endabob1]

To a degree.... but I think it'll be one of 2 Ivory Coast have a very good side imo & Ghana have that big nation knack of getting results when it counts.
Plus it's a home tournament Japan & Korea's performances in 2002 USA & Mexico in 1994 show that a home (in continent terms at least) tournament is hugely beneficial.

I think African sides do well in the Olympics because it's not taken as seriously by European Countries plus Africa has 3 slots & Europe 4 making it a whole lot easier for them to progress. How cynical of you to suggest dodgy birth certs ;)

I still think the winners will be from the same batch which is the frustrating thing
France
Italy
Germany
Brazil
Argentina

You have to go back to 1978 to find a world cup without one of those as a finalist and to 1966 to find a winner that wasn't one of those.

[superfrank]

I still think the winners will be from the same batch which is the frustrating thing
France
Italy
Germany
Brazil
Argentina

You have to go back to 1978 to find a world cup without one of those as a finalist and to 1966 to find a winner that wasn't one of those.
Nope. Every final has had one of those five in them.

[Schumi]

Nope. Every final has had one of those five in them.
1978 is the last time there weren't two of them in the final.

[superfrank]

Well, endabob1 said:

You have to go back to 1978 to find a world cup without one of those as a finalist

[Closed Account 2]

Paraguay are a very strong team, and having been their 2 years ago I can tell you they love their football with a passion and zeal unsurpassed in Latin America. Paraguay has suffered much especially in terms of relations with its neighbours. It had only thrown off the enslavement and subjugation of the Spanish Empire for around 50 years when it was invloved in the "War of Triple Alliance". Brazil, Uruguay (which Brazil had annexed) and Argentina saw it was developing economically faster them and so declared war. Before the war Paraguay had a population of 500,000 to 550,000 after the war it was around 200,000 with less than 30,000 of that figure being men. The Brazilians and their allies conducted a campaign of genocide in all but name. Paraguay also lost around 50,000 square miles (pretty much half its pre-war size) and the country was decimated. Less than 50 years later the Bolivans invaded the other side of Paraguay and attempted to capture the Chaco region. The Paraguyans fought back and in a bitter struggle (57,000 Paraguayans died) managed to keep the Bolivians at bay. I don't normally put too much creedance in socio-political backdrops fuelling football attitudes but it's easy to see why the Paraguay national team does so well at qualification, in the space of 3-4 generations 4 of the other 9 countries in Latin America* have tried to liquidate them as a nation.

*CONMEBOL nations, so not counting the Guyanas and Surinam