LOI series 23

[De Town]

Premier odds here (http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-leagues/other-leagues/ireland/eircom-premier-division)

First division odds here (http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-leagues/other-leagues/ireland/eircom-first-division)

Shels @ 8/13 (away to Longford) and Waterford @ 4/7 (away to Kildare) look particularly appealing to me, both prices available with Boyles.

[pineapple stu]

UCD beat Longford 3-0 away last week. Longford beat Athlone 5-2 away the week before. We're at home to Athlone this weekend. Go figure...

[The Betting Man]

UCD beat Longford 3-0 away last week. Longford beat Athlone 5-2 away the week before. We're at home to Athlone this weekend. Go figure...

An Away victory so ;)

[Longfordian]

I'm staying well away from UCD. They never do me any favours. Having said that they should win as they're a much better side but definitely stay away from handicaps. 1-0 UCD.

[brianw82]

I'll probably take that 8/13 on Shels with Boyles. I know they screwed up away to Athlone 2 weeks ago but 9/10 times they'd have won it. Stupid sending off and a freak equalizer, not likely to happen again.

As usual, not the slightest hint of value on Fingal. :( They look to be getting it together at last, interested to see the handicaps, although -1 is likely to be 2/5 or so only.

[brianw82]

Longford Town v Shelbourne


I'll probably take that 8/13 on Shels with Boyles. I know they screwed up away to Athlone 2 weeks ago but 9/10 times they'd have won it. Stupid sending off and a freak equalizer, not likely to happen again.

Not much more to be said on this. Longford have improved under Gareth Cronin, but only slightly. They've fallen to 2 successive 3-0 defeats to Fingal and UCD, and that luck is not likely to change against the league leaders, who got back to winning ways against Harps last week.

Backing Shelbourne @ 8/13 (Boyle sports) - 5 pts

[Raheny Red]

Longford Town v Shelbourne



Not much more to be said on this. Longford have improved under Gareth Cronin, but only slightly. They've fallen to 2 successive 3-0 defeats to Fingal and UCD, and that luck is not likely to change against the league leaders, who got back to winning ways against Harps last week.

Backing Shelbourne @ 8/13 (Boyle sports) - 5 pts

I want to back this but I can't due to two reasons. Our recent discipline problems have been a disgrace with 2 sendings off in our last 2 games for pettiness and it's cost us 3 points already with it nearly doing so again last week. Also our strikers aren't scoring. Hynes hasn't scored a single goal yet and I think Flood hasn't scored in 7 or 8 games now. Gooldluck, hope you win.

[De Town]

Longford Town v Shelbourne



Not much more to be said on this. Longford have improved under Gareth Cronin, but only slightly. They've fallen to 2 successive 3-0 defeats to Fingal and UCD, and that luck is not likely to change against the league leaders, who got back to winning ways against Harps last week.

Backing Shelbourne @ 8/13 (Boyle sports) - 5 pts

Hmmm yeah I was going to lump on this also, but am having second thoughts. Firstly, its hard to back against my own team. Secondly, Shels haven't been totally dominant lately, drawing with Athlone and only beating Harps by a single goal. And thirdly, we're due a result. Still might back Shels, but won't be going in too heavy I don't think.

[Longfordian]

If our defence sorts itself out and Ray Kenny has been taken out back and put out of his misery we can make life awkward for them. Hard to know though. Think I'm steering clear of this one anyhow.

[Raheny Red]

It's our midfield that has been winning the games for us recently, if you can stop them, or at least cut their chances in half you have a chance. While our defence is solid enough any striker with some sort of pace and creativity could easily cause us problems.

[brianw82]

Firstly, its hard to back against my own team.

I'll give you that one.


Secondly, Shels haven't been totally dominant lately, drawing with Athlone and only beating Harps by a single goal.

They've won the majority of their games this season by the odd goal. Nothing unusual there.


And thirdly, we're due a result.

I don't believe in this 'due a result' talk.

There are massive gulfs in quality in the 1st Division and I don't think these 'little things' matter so much. I was stung with the Athlone result as I said, but I'd do that bet again 10 times over.

[DmanDmythDledge]

Firstly, its hard to back against my own team.
You can't let sentiment get in the way of making money.:)

[De Town]

They've won the majority of their games this season by the odd goal. Nothing unusual there.
Valid point.

I don't believe in this 'due a result' talk.

There are massive gulfs in quality in the 1st Division and I don't think these 'little things' matter so much. I was stung with the Athlone result as I said, but I'd do that bet again 10 times over.
Fair enough. I still think it's possible we can get something from the game though. While I wouldn't be surprised to see us getting another 3-0 whipping, our general play hasn't been too bad lately, our defensive mistakes have been letting us down badly. All 3 goals last week against UCD were terrible goals to give away, all easily avoidable. If we manage to cut these silly mistakes out against Shels then I feel we have a decent chance of getting a point at least, leading to my reluctance to go in heavy on a Shels win.

You can't let sentiment get in the way of making money.:)
Or vice versa!;)

[brianw82]

Valid point.

Fair enough. I still think it's possible we can get something from the game though. While I wouldn't be surprised to see us getting another 3-0 whipping, our general play hasn't been too bad lately, our defensive mistakes have been letting us down badly. All 3 goals last week against UCD were terrible goals to give away, all easily avoidable. If we manage to cut these silly mistakes out against Shels then I feel we have a decent chance of getting a point at least, leading to my reluctance to go in heavy on a Shels win.

Or vice versa!;)

Again, we've (Rovers) been saying that all season. We're still giving away stupid goals week after week. There's no magic solution to it, and it's unlikely to change against the division's top team. If you were playing Mervue again, on the other hand... :D

[CF1989]

lumping into waterford 8/13 away to kildare.

kildare won 3-0 last week i know but waterford are flying and kildare cant be improved enough to take anything from them

[DmanDmythDledge]

Bohs@1.72 vs Cork- 2pts
Rovers@1.83 vs Drogs- 1pt
Dundalk@2.74 vs Sligo- 1pt
Fingal -1@1.4 vs Mervue- 4pts
UCD -1@1.8 vs Athlone- 2pts
Waterford@1.57 vs Kildare- 2pts
Shels@1.63 vs Longford- 1pt

Will go for Fingal -2 if I can get a price on that.

[De Town]

Just did a .5 pt accy on the top 4 teams in the 1st division -1 against the bottom 4. No doubt at least 1 of them will feck up but it's small stakes so would be a bonus if it comes off.

[Battery Rover]

Last minute goal saves Athlone bookmakers will be the headline this week. Virtually the whole town was on at 11/1 with Boylesports and had heard of people only being offered 13/2 later in the day but they were still taking it.

[Mr A]

Have a double on Shels and Waterford tonight at a bit better than evens.

[De Town]

Just did a .5 pt accy on the top 4 teams in the 1st division -1 against the bottom 4. No doubt at least 1 of them will feck up but it's small stakes so would be a bonus if it comes off.

UC fúcking D!:mad:

[Longfordian]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Never back UCD. They can't be relied upon!. Except if they're playing us, the feckers.

[De Town]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Never back UCD. They can't be relied upon!. Except if they're playing us, the feckers.
That's mainly why I did back them, coz I was so impressed with them against us last week! oh well..

[brianw82]

Longford Town v Shelbourne



Not much more to be said on this. Longford have improved under Gareth Cronin, but only slightly. They've fallen to 2 successive 3-0 defeats to Fingal and UCD, and that luck is not likely to change against the league leaders, who got back to winning ways against Harps last week.

Backing Shelbourne @ 8/13 (Boyle sports) - 5 pts

That'll do nicely.

Longfordian, I'd always put a team's consistency ahead of possible fears that they won't win. For the top team(s) in a division, they're simply always more likely to win than not.

[Longfordian]

Fair enough, it's just a personal decision because any time I've backed them they've let me down, usually against the poorer teams.

[Raheny Red]

Last minute goal saves Athlone bookmakers will be the headline this week. Virtually the whole town was on at 11/1 with Boylesports and had heard of people only being offered 13/2 later in the day but they were still taking it.

Why were so many people that confident or was it just the 11/1 that attracted so many people?

[Schumi]

That'll do nicely.

Longfordian, I'd always put a team's consistency ahead of possible fears that they won't win. For the top team(s) in a division, they're simply always more likely to win than not.

Handicap betting on us is silly though. Longford are the only team we've scored more than one against since the middle of June.

[Battery Rover]

Why were so many people that confident or was it just the 11/1 that attracted so many people?

Everyone was confident that Davy O'Connor and Andrei Georgescu would bring on the team a lot. On top of that our last two games against them we lost just 1-0 on both occasions and we were over ran in midfield in both those.

Our midfield Friday night was much more experienced than we last played them and we have the physical presence of Austin Skelly up front now as well.

There are tremendous things happening within the club under Brendan Place and the talk in the pubs are now about Athlone in a positive light whether we win, lose or draw.

[Raheny Red]

Cork City -V- Shamrock Rovers

Just clicked on odds checker to see if there is any value on tomorrow night’s games and I couldn’t believe my eyes when I seen the price on the away win. 11/5 for Rovers to win with VC is massive value in my opinion. I wouldn’t have the Hoops any bigger than 13/8 - 7/4 to be honest. The Hoops are a massive 13 games unbeaten in the league now and are real title contenders at this stage. They have a huge amount of momentum behind them and any side in this league will find it hard to stop them. Cork City, meanwhile, have been in turmoil in recent months off the pitch and things will get worse soon enough when they will have to shed their wage bill even further. If the rest of the players are feeling just as half as angry as Joe Gamble then this could be a doddle for Rovers, from today’s Sun:

"I didnt just wake up one morning and think ah sure i'll give this a lash, if we go part time i'll have to leave it,s as simple as that. Maybe if i was 30 or 31 it world be different but im 27 so i should have four or five good years left. If i didnt have a daughter, a missus and a house then maybe id stay but i have commitments. I owe it to them to do the best i can for them, just like any other family man would . I signed a contract last year for three years and four weeks later its gone wrong. It's not worth the paper its written on. I WAS DUE SIX WEEKS WAGES ON THURSDAY AND I ONLY GOT 20 PER CENT OF A MONTH'S WAGES - WHAT F***ING LOYALTY IS THAT, THEY CAN F*** OFF AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED. You tell me anyone who will work for six weeks and get 20 per cent for a months wages"

Cork can be difficult place to go for the 3 points and this season the games there have been tight affairs, there’s been 11 league games there so far with City scoring just 8 and conceding only 6. However, Rovers are 6 points clear of them, they are the better side. Rovers are going forward while Cork are going back. The 11/5 is unbelievable value and I’m 100% certain you won’t get any price close to that tomorrow evening. Max bet for me. Rovers to win 2-0.

Backing Shamrock Rovers @ 11/5 (Victor Chandler) - 7.5 pts.

[pineapple stu]

Good spot.

[eL Bettor]

The 2/1 with PP even looks too high to me - would be interested to hear JC_GUFC's views!

[brianw82]

Cork City -V- Shamrock Rovers

Just clicked on odds checker to see if there is any value on tomorrow night’s games and I couldn’t believe my eyes when I seen the price on the away win. 11/5 for Rovers to win with VC is massive value in my opinion. I wouldn’t have the Hoops any bigger than 13/8 - 7/4 to be honest. The Hoops are a massive 13 games unbeaten in the league now and are real title contenders at this stage. They have a huge amount of momentum behind them and any side in this league will find it hard to stop them. Cork City, meanwhile, have been in turmoil in recent months off the pitch and things will get worse soon enough when they will have to shed their wage bill even further. If the rest of the players are feeling just as half as angry as Joe Gamble then this could be a doddle for Rovers, from today’s Sun:

"I didnt just wake up one morning and think ah sure i'll give this a lash, if we go part time i'll have to leave it,s as simple as that. Maybe if i was 30 or 31 it world be different but im 27 so i should have four or five good years left. If i didnt have a daughter, a missus and a house then maybe id stay but i have commitments. I owe it to them to do the best i can for them, just like any other family man would . I signed a contract last year for three years and four weeks later its gone wrong. It's not worth the paper its written on. I WAS DUE SIX WEEKS WAGES ON THURSDAY AND I ONLY GOT 20 PER CENT OF A MONTH'S WAGES - WHAT F***ING LOYALTY IS THAT, THEY CAN F*** OFF AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED. You tell me anyone who will work for six weeks and get 20 per cent for a months wages"

Cork can be difficult place to go for the 3 points and this season the games there have been tight affairs, there’s been 11 league games there so far with City scoring just 8 and conceding only 6. However, Rovers are 6 points clear of them, they are the better side. Rovers are going forward while Cork are going back. The 11/5 is unbelievable value and I’m 100% certain you won’t get any price close to that tomorrow evening. Max bet for me. Rovers to win 2-0.

Backing Shamrock Rovers @ 11/5 (Victor Chandler) - 7.5 pts.

You spotted the odds but not my new midweek thread, RR? For shame. :(

I'm gonna be on Rovers like a fly on manure very shortly, those odds are insanely good. Won't be going with such high stakes as you, though.

[brianw82]

Cork City -V- Shamrock Rovers

Just clicked on odds checker to see if there is any value on tomorrow night’s games and I couldn’t believe my eyes when I seen the price on the away win. 11/5 for Rovers to win with VC is massive value in my opinion. I wouldn’t have the Hoops any bigger than 13/8 - 7/4 to be honest. The Hoops are a massive 13 games unbeaten in the league now and are real title contenders at this stage. They have a huge amount of momentum behind them and any side in this league will find it hard to stop them. Cork City, meanwhile, have been in turmoil in recent months off the pitch and things will get worse soon enough when they will have to shed their wage bill even further. If the rest of the players are feeling just as half as angry as Joe Gamble then this could be a doddle for Rovers, from today’s Sun:

"I didnt just wake up one morning and think ah sure i'll give this a lash, if we go part time i'll have to leave it,s as simple as that. Maybe if i was 30 or 31 it world be different but im 27 so i should have four or five good years left. If i didnt have a daughter, a missus and a house then maybe id stay but i have commitments. I owe it to them to do the best i can for them, just like any other family man would . I signed a contract last year for three years and four weeks later its gone wrong. It's not worth the paper its written on. I WAS DUE SIX WEEKS WAGES ON THURSDAY AND I ONLY GOT 20 PER CENT OF A MONTH'S WAGES - WHAT F***ING LOYALTY IS THAT, THEY CAN F*** OFF AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED. You tell me anyone who will work for six weeks and get 20 per cent for a months wages"

Cork can be difficult place to go for the 3 points and this season the games there have been tight affairs, there’s been 11 league games there so far with City scoring just 8 and conceding only 6. However, Rovers are 6 points clear of them, they are the better side. Rovers are going forward while Cork are going back. The 11/5 is unbelievable value and I’m 100% certain you won’t get any price close to that tomorrow evening. Max bet for me. Rovers to win 2-0.

Backing Shamrock Rovers @ 11/5 (Victor Chandler) - 7.5 pts.

RR has basically said all that needs to be said on this. The gut says Shamrock Rovers will win this one, and that's what I'm going with.

Backing Shamrock Rovers @ 3.2 (Betfair) - 2 pts.

[DmanDmythDledge]

Bohs@1.72 vs Cork- 2pts
Rovers@1.83 vs Drogs- 1pt
Dundalk@2.74 vs Sligo- 1pt
Fingal -1@1.4 vs Mervue- 4pts
UCD -1@1.8 vs Athlone- 2pts
Waterford@1.57 vs Kildare- 2pts
Shels@1.63 vs Longford- 1pt
Just UCD let me down. 5.38pts profit.:)

[brianw82]

Just UCD let me down. 5.38pts profit.:)

Rovers too. :)

However, you had to bet 13 points to get that. That gives you odds of 1.41. You could've just stuck it all on Fingal -1 at 1.4 without so much risk.

[De Town]

Rovers too. :)

:confused:

He had Dundalk to beat Sligo.

[ifk101]

That gives you odds of 1.41. You could've just stuck it all on Fingal -1 at 1.4 without so much risk.

He'd increase his risk by following your suggestion.

[brianw82]

He'd increase his risk by following your suggestion.

He'd only be waiting on one result instead of 7. That's reducing risk in my book.

[pineapple stu]

It'd be increasing his risk - all or nothing versus spread risk. You can work out expected results which would show the seven bets have a higher average expected outcome than the one bet.

[brianw82]

Fair enough. Just pointing out that 5 pts profit is nothing to boast about when you risked 13. :)

[eL Bettor]

Fair enough. Just pointing out that 5 pts profit is nothing to boast about when you risked 13. :)

He didnt risk 13 as such due to them being spread out. Not to mention the fact that you could only say after the event that Fingal -1 was safer. You'd swear they won 8-0, rather than 2-0 :rolleyes:

I place dozens of bets each week and if I can get a consistent yield of 20% I'm delighted and would be considered an excellent gambler. He got returns of 18 pts for stake of 13 pts which is a lot better than that.