View Full Version : Labour can kill off Coke and Pepsi politics
Fintan O Toole argues in today's Irish Times (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0512/1224246322181.html) that Labour should not form a coalition with either of the civil war parties and that to do so perpetuates their dominance.
It certainly would be very interesting if a resurgent Labour could hold aloof after the next general election and force an FF-FG coalition.
One suspects though that the civil war parties would rather go back to the electorate than govern together.
dahamsta
12/05/2009, 8:53 AM
They're politicians, they'll happily suck each other's balls for a seat at the Cabinet table.
(To preempt: They're politicians, they probably do anyway.)
Its tough for labour, as if they don't get involved some will criticise them for taking potshots fromt he outside when they could be effecting policies.
Personally I'd like to see them stand stronga nd stay away from FF and FG
Whatever about politicians wanting power (obviously, if you want to effect change), would they really get the support of the people if it forced a run of unstable Governments, in the current circumstances? It's up to the voters to give them a big enough mandate to allow that happen.
Personally, I think Springs big mistake was not hanging tough. However, right back to before the formation of the state Labour has the track record of putting state ahead of party, to it's own detriment.
dahamsta
12/05/2009, 9:24 AM
Personally I'd like to see them stand stronga nd stay away from FF and FGI might feel the same way after the election if they pick up a lot of seats, but in their current position I don't think they're a lot to be gained from it. They have very little say in Irish politics at the moment, and imho it's a bad thing to have the only credible left-of-centre party in that position. (They're not left-of-centre enough for me these days, but that's another debate.)
I don't think any party can approach an election saying they will not enter into government. When FF said they wouldn't go into coaltion that was seen as arrogant.
Coaltion is a fact of life in Irish politics. Probably the least stable colation would be one of equal parties - it seems best to have one clear leader.
The reason Labour had to accept policies of other parties is because they were a junior member in government. When they get 40+ seats then they will have greater say.
I find it hard to know what Labour stand for as it seems to vary from candidate to candidate.
The reason Labour had to accept policies of other parties is because they were a junior member in government. When they get 40+ seats then they will have greater say.
If they get 40+, it means total collapse of FF, and would open up the possibility of a Labour lead Labour-FF Coalition.
mypost
13/05/2009, 12:58 PM
Labour should not form a coalition with either of the civil war parties and that to do so perpetuates their dominance.
It certainly would be very interesting if a resurgent Labour could hold aloof after the next general election and force an FF-FG coalition.
How else are they going to find 83 seats?
FG could only recover the 20 seats they lost in 2002 last time, Labour lost one, and would gain only 10 more max. So they'll have to go cap in hand with FG to form a coalition as two official centre-left parties. FG have moved away from the left in recent years, but that's where their roots are.
dahamsta
13/05/2009, 1:05 PM
FG have moved away from the left in recent years, but that's where their roots are.I think by now those roots may have fallen off. FG is right-of-centre now, full stop.
FG have moved away from the left in recent years, but that's where their roots are.
FG centre left? When? O'Duffy must be spinning in his grave at that description of the FG roots...
By no stretch of any imagination could FG every be called a left wing party. or even left of centre. Or even centrist for that matter...
Indeed, the whole point of this discussion is that FF and FG are essentially the same in most ways (that said, I'd rather have FG in there than FF since they don't seem to have quite the same culture of incompetence and gombeenism), and that's an unhealthy thing for our democracy.
If Labour could force the two centre right parties into office together, they could reap real awards at the following election.
I suppose FF could be described as centre right depending on the time of day?
I suppose FF could be described as centre right depending on the time of day?
Or, we could simply use their track record in Government, particularly since 1997, to prove they're a right wing party.
Bald Student
13/05/2009, 2:37 PM
If Labour refused government and forced a second election we'd be left with having to give either FF or FG a straight majority, minus a half dozen green seats.
It'd be like Dr. Pepper trying to force an end to Coke and Pepsi by refusing to sell us any more Dr. Pepper.
If Labour refused government and forced a second election we'd be left with having to give either FF or FG a straight majority, minus a half dozen green seats.
Why would it be Labour forcing an election in those circumstances? There would still be an option for Government - FG/FF. You're right in how it'd be painted, but how come only Labour have to fall on the sword of "national interest" not the other two main parties?
Bald Student
13/05/2009, 3:28 PM
Why would it be Labour forcing an election in those circumstances? There would still be an option for Government - FG/FF. You're right in how it'd be painted, but how come only Labour have to fall on the sword of "national interest" not the other two main parties?
Because this entire argument is based around the notion that it's ignoble for a politician to enter government. There might be some romance in that idea but I think that most people go to vote for the person they want to run the country. If Labour chose to not do that job, we'd be faced with a straight choice between the two other main parties.
To put it more simply; if Labour say to the electorate that there's no point in voting for them unless we give them a majority, I think it's more likely that people won't vote for them than give them that majority.
To put it more simply; if Labour say to the electorate that there's no point in voting for them unless we give them a majority, I think it's more likely that people won't vote for them than give them that majority.
A good example is the Green Party. They had a choice, either go into government & try to prove they could make a different or forever remain on the sidelines. If it doesn't work out for them they could take a beating at next General Election but if they didn't take the gamble they would never move past maybe 10 seats.
In recent General Elections Labout put themselves under pressure by aligning themselves with FG both officially for one GE & unofficial for the last GE.
monutdfc
13/05/2009, 4:20 PM
In recent General Elections Labout put themselves under pressure by aligning themselves with FG both officially for one GE & unofficial for the last GE.
They were officially aligned with FG for the last election (the Mullingar Accord) and it was a tactical disaster fro Labour. It shored up FG's position as the main opposition party, the election became a straight choice between FG and FF (the Leader's Debate was only between Kenny and Ahern) with the smaller parties, including Labour, being squeezed out.
A good article by O'Toole, I agree with much of it.
Gilmore refuses to rule out going into power with FF
LABOUR leader Eamon Gilmore has again refused to rule out going into government with Fianna Fail.
He was speaking after Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny warned that only a vote for Fine Gael in the two forthcoming Dail by-elections could ensure that Fianna Fail returns to the opposition benches.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/gilmore-refuses-to-rule-out-going-into-power-with-ff-1738395.html
Mr Gilmore refused to be drawn on the comments yesterday, saying instead that the public were "rightly rejecting" Fianna Fail in what was a contest for the leadership of the next government.
In the national interest.
Gilmore refuses to rule out going into power with FF
In the national interest.
As I outlined earlier, if Labour do really well, and FF do really badly, there is the possibility of a Labour lead Labour-FF coalition. If it meant Labour as the main party he'd be mad to rule it out - FF will do anything to cling to power so would cave on pretty much everything Labour wanted whilst claiming they were centre left the whole time anyway. It's a different ball game from the last election.
I can't see anyway that FF would go into government as a junior partner. They would choose opposition before that happens.
I can't see anyway that FF would go into government as a junior partner. They would choose opposition before that happens.
Well the whole point of FF is to be in power, so I wouldn't rule it out pete
Labour can't rule out going into power with FF or they're effectively in bed with FG again and risk what happened at the last election happening again.
It's a tricky situation, and they may well end up damned whatever they do.
Clearly there is a lot of anti-FF feelings around & voters are looking for someone else to give their vote. If this was a General Election could a serious own goal by Labour as people may not want to vote for them if it returns FF to power.
Whether they go for official pack or not I don't see any option but for FG/Labour agreement in advance of next General Election. No one can afford to campaign with chance they would put FF back into power.
mypost
14/05/2009, 1:43 PM
As I outlined earlier, if Labour do really well, and FF do really badly, there is the possibility of a Labour lead Labour-FF coalition. If it meant Labour as the main party he'd be mad to rule it out - FF will do anything to cling to power so would cave on pretty much everything Labour wanted whilst claiming they were centre left the whole time anyway.
Gilmore will never be Taoiseach, as there has rarely, if ever been a Labour Taoiseach. He would be propping up FG or FF if he was in government.
The local elections imo, have always been joke elections. They're a chance for the electorate to jab a few punches at FF, instead of landing knock-out blows. If we really want to hurt FF, Lisbon in the Autumn is the time to do it.
If we really want to hurt FF, Lisbon in the Autumn is the time to do it.
Except that wouldn't just be a blow to FF now, would it?
mypost
14/05/2009, 2:10 PM
No, but if you want to hurt them, that's when to do it.
Even if they don't get a vote in the local elections, they'll still be in power in September. The by-election defeats wouldn't hurt them as they'd still have the majority. With the Europeans, they can ship someone off to Brussels if necessary.
Getting a grilling from Merkel and Sarkosy again, wouldn't go down well.
NeilMcD
14/05/2009, 2:13 PM
Gilmore will never be Taoiseach, as there has rarely, if ever been a Labour Taoiseach. He would be propping up FG or FF if he was in government.
The local elections imo, have always been joke elections. They're a chance for the electorate to jab a few punches at FF, instead of landing knock-out blows. If we really want to hurt FF, Lisbon in the Autumn is the time to do it.
Except I do not vote to hurt people I vote for whatever I think is best for myself my family and for the country.
bennocelt
14/05/2009, 8:36 PM
Except I do not vote to hurt people I vote for whatever I think is best for myself my family and for the country.
ah neil - as much as i love your posts - please:confused:
thats not the irish way - hurt the ff bassterds -
Gilmore will never be Taoiseach, as there has rarely, if ever been a Labour Taoiseach. He would be propping up FG or FF if he was in government.
It depends on how people vote. Basically, it always comes down to how the numbers stack up post election. Even if Labour doesn’t beat FF, it could be the price for coalition. See Dodge's post to see why that could still happen.
The local elections imo, have always been joke elections. They're a chance for the electorate to jab a few punches at FF, instead of landing knock-out blows. If we really want to hurt FF, Lisbon in the Autumn is the time to do it.
Total rubbish, local elections do affect people, but even then if they get decimated then it does help get FF out. With two lost Bye elections, and a really poor result, the independents, Greens (ministerial pensions achieved) and some back benchers will really start to see they have to be the ones seen to pull the house of cards down first.
Voting No to Lisbon would have little effect, as all the main parties will be supporting a Yes vote, so where exactly will the pressure come from?
NeilMcD
15/05/2009, 9:23 AM
ah neil - as much as i love your posts - please:confused:
thats not the irish way - hurt the ff bassterds -
Seriously I have never voted for FF in my life but my motivation was not to hurt them.
Well the whole point of FF is to be in power, so I wouldn't rule it out pete
It'll never happen.
FF will do bad in locals & european elections , They won't win either bye election( governments never do).After June there will be a heave against Cowan, Dermot Ahern becomes leader. New Cabinet. FF won't do as bad in the next general election as every thinks. Think Inda will drop the ball again.
Its difficult to see how Labour could becme the biggest party in a coaltion. Last election:
FF - 78
FG - 51.
Lab - 20.
Labour would have to double their seats & see FF lose half theirs for Gilmore to lead a Lab/FF government. For a Lab/FG government FG would need to lose seats which seems very unlikely.
Labour would have to double their seats & see FF lose half theirs for Gilmore to lead a Lab/FF government.
I know it doesn't necessarily translate proportionally into seats, but you do realise that on these figures the Labour vote has doubled since the last general election and the FF vote has halved since the last general election, don't you?
mypost
15/05/2009, 4:54 PM
local elections do affect people, but even then if they get decimated then it does help get FF out. With two lost Bye elections, and a really poor result, the independents, Greens (ministerial pensions achieved) and some back benchers will really start to see they have to be the ones seen to pull the house of cards down first.
Voting No to Lisbon would have little effect, as all the main parties will be supporting a Yes vote, so where exactly will the pressure come from?
FF were decimated in the locals in 2004, but after going away for the long snooze, were still in power when they returned, and they got back in in the general 2 years ago.
Basically, their "meltdown" will be a story for the journos to run with it for a few weeks, until the recess starts. It will die down after it.
I don't advocate hitting the government for hitting's sake, but if you want to land a big blow of punches, Lisbon is the time to do it. Everything else they can absorb. After all, Cowen is only interested in satisfying international investors with his policies, it's not looking after the people he's responsible for, i.e. us. His image abroad is what bothers him, not at home.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0515/labour.html
Mr Gilmore stressed that the Labour Party was different from both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but he did not rule out entering into a Programme of Government with Fine Gael in the future.
Gilmore falls into the trap. Were back to FG & Labour as the alternative.
mypost
16/05/2009, 5:48 AM
There is really no other alternative.
True, but now they'll have to jusify difference in policy & prove that they can work together as a potential government.
dahamsta
16/05/2009, 3:18 PM
Better now than after the election, like the lying bags of crap in the Greens.
Fine Gael rules out coalition with Greens
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/fine-gael-rules-out-coalition-with-greens-411171.html
Adams: FG vote won't bring change
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/adams-fg-vote-wont-bring-change-411172.html
So much for democracy. Were going to left with very little choice come the next election.:rolleyes:
OneRedArmy
17/05/2009, 7:06 PM
Better now than after the election, like the lying bags of crap in the Greens.I wouldn't be so harsh Adam.
Sure, they got played like fools like every FF partner, but I'd put that down more to absolute naivety rather than any Machavellian planning (possibly Gormley aside).
They looked like rabbits in the headlights for the first 12 months but in the last 6 months they have realised they neither can nor probably want to influence the wider programme for Government and have gone back to concentrating on traditional, narrow Green policies.
I wish they'd done this from the start.
I realise you disagree, but I believe the Greens deserve a small amount of slack for getting the hospital pass of all hospital passes (Bertie's legacy) and for this being the first time they've been near anything resembling Government. I wouldn't be lumping them in with the PDs yet.
mypost
17/05/2009, 7:21 PM
Unless they pull out of government, they'll go the same way as the PD's.
dahamsta
17/05/2009, 7:32 PM
I won't be cutting the Greens any slack ORA. They always featured on my ballot card based on their policies; if you take those policies away, as they themselves have done, there's nothing left. The reasons why are none of my concern, but I will say that in my opinion naivete is neither valid, nor (entirely) accurate. Eamon Ryan's behaviour in Government being a perfect example: I can't account for his naivete, but I do know for a fact that he's a bare-faced liar.
Gormley's probably naive though. Probably not the best character flaw for a party leader. I look forward to the return of Clever Trevor; assuming the Greens last long enough for it of course. He might be able to win me back as a voter.
adam
OneRedArmy
17/05/2009, 7:54 PM
Unless they pull out of government, they'll go the same way as the PD's.Disagree. As long as there is a green agenda (thats green with a small "g"), then they'll be around. If that disappears, they will disappear, but I don't see that happening.
I won't be cutting the Greens any slack ORA. They always featured on my ballot card based on their policies; if you take those policies away, as they themselves have done, there's nothing left. The reasons why are none of my concern, but I will say that in my opinion naivete is neither valid, nor (entirely) accurate. Eamon Ryan's behaviour in Government being a perfect example: I can't account for his naivete, but I do know for a fact that he's a bare-faced liar.
Gormley's probably naive though. Probably not the best character flaw for a party leader. I look forward to the return of Clever Trevor; assuming the Greens last long enough for it of course. He might be able to win me back as a voter.
adamTrevor was obviously unwilling to dilute his principles, but then we go straight back into the "compromise and try and be as effective as you can as a minority partner" versus "perpetual opposition party".
You only learn through your mistakes and whats important for the Greens(as opposed to whats important for the country) is that they learn from theirs.
Todays poll is the first sign that they are getting punished by the electorate, the Council elections will be interesting. Maintaining a green agenda when people are struggling to find work and make ends meet is a tough sell even ignoring that the FF association.
Poor Student
17/05/2009, 7:58 PM
Unless they pull out of government, they'll go the same way as the PD's.
Green political parties are still a relatively new force in Western European politics and with climate issues becoming more of a focus I think the policies they concetrate on will be increasingly relevant in the near term and they'll continue to exists.
dahamsta
18/05/2009, 12:00 AM
Trevor was obviously unwilling to dilute his principles, but then we go straight back into the "compromise and try and be as effective as you can as a minority partner" versus "perpetual opposition party".I agree with you that compromise is the essence of politics, which sadly many people don't understand. But don't forget that Sargent did compromise, by taking a junior seat at the table. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't call myself a fan of Sargent by any stretch of the imagination*, and I abhor the grandfathered junior ministries. But I'd have a hell of a lot more time for him than any current mainline Green. Gormley and Ryan are the worst though, utter lying pond scum. Boyle is a different type of scum. They've all done a huge disservice to their party.
adam
* Which isn't to say I'd rule that out for the future. Although the day when I ever become a fan of an Irish politician is hard to see. Sadly, the only ones I ever really cheer for are from other countries. (Mo Mowlam, Charles Kennedy, and perhaps Obama.) I think the best I could do for an Irish politician is a slight nod of respect, and then only for about a half a dozen of them.
I realise you disagree, but I believe the Greens deserve a small amount of slack for getting the hospital pass of all hospital passes (Bertie's legacy) and for this being the first time they've been near anything resembling Government. I wouldn't be lumping them in with the PDs yet.
They weren't needed for the numbers to stack up, and that's why they've got so little policy comprimise. They will probably pay the electoral price, whereas if they'd hung it out they'd be in a Rainbow Government (possibly by now anyway), with more sway after benefitting from the ABFF vote.
The Ministerial Pensions are nearly in the bag, hence the start of the exit strategy. They're not even principled when it comes to trying to pull the whole thing down...
The Greens in recent days were saying the programme for Government would be renegotiated but Cowan has firmly said that won't happen now.
Irish Times (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0518/1224246812172.html?via=rel)
THE GREEN Party has moved to play down the prospect of a split with its Fianna Fáil coalition partners over a Green demand to review the programme for government.
“We are not seeking a way out of government,” Minister for Communications Energy and Natural Resources, Eamon Ryan told The Irish Times.
“We are two years in Government and we are looking to see what we have done and what we do now,” he added.
Stressing that the Greens were not preparing an exit strategy, he said: “We are looking for ways of making Government work better”.
The Minister’s comments came after a weekend of intense speculation about the coalition’s future, sparked off by Senator Dan Boyle, who had described various aspects of Government policy generally associated with Fianna Fáil as “a disaster”.
Like any junior partner in government the Greens need a good excuse if they are to bring down the government. Electorates are very unforgiving of unecessary elections. The worse the Greens do in the elections the better it is for FF as the Greens will be less likely to want to call an election from such a low state.
Like any junior partner in government the Greens need a good excuse if they are to bring down the government. Electorates are very unforgiving of unecessary elections. The worse the Greens do in the elections the better it is for FF as the Greens will be less likely to want to call an election from such a low state.
Agree with this. If the greens were to pull out of government, they would effectively be signing their own death warrant. They would be slaughtered at the polls and whilst the likes of FF can absorb a beating, they would be set back years in terms of party popularity growth.
Im quite relieved that I will be out in Sofia for the upcoming elections, as I take voting seriously and put a fair bit of thought into my decision. I dont know what way to vote. I can knock off the likes of SF straight away because I would never vote for them but its hard to decide otherwise.
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