LOI Round 9

[adamd164]

Odds from Will Hill.

Sligo and Dundalk seem like high odds. Particularly Sligo 7/5 against Drogs given their recent form. Dundalk maybe unlikely to take anything but 6/1 is massive, worth a few euro perhaps.

Home | Draw | Away

Premier Division

Bohemians v Bray
3/10 | 10/3 | 7/1

Cork v Galway Utd
8/13 | 12/5 | 19/5

Drogheda v Sligo Rovers
8/5 | 21/10 | 7/5

Derry v Dundalk
2/5 | 11/4 | 6/1

First Division

Limerick 37 v Waterford
13/10 | 11/5 | 13/8

Mervue Utd v UCD
9/2 | 13/5 | 1/2

Monaghan Utd v Kildare
4/7 | 5/2 | 4/1

Shelbourne v Athlone
2/5 | 11/4 | 6/1

[eL Bettor]

I'd be surprised if Monaghan are still 4/7 by Friday. I know they lost 6-0 to Waterford but they are still a huge step above Kildare.

[JC_GUFC]

I'd be surprised if Monaghan are still 4/7 by Friday. I know they lost 6-0 to Waterford but they are still a huge step above Kildare.

Yeah you'd think Hills would've noticed by now that they keep laying whoever Kildare are playing. I'd say it'll be more like 1/3.

[brianw82]

I'd be surprised if Monaghan are still 4/7 by Friday. I know they lost 6-0 to Waterford but they are still a huge step above Kildare.

Maybe they are, but I couldn't possibly back a team that just lost 6-0.

I'm eager to see Fingal's odds against Longford.

[Longfordian]

Whatever they are lump on them, I don't see us having a hope to be perfectly honest.

[Raheny Red]

Mon U @ 4/7, lost 6-0 in last fixture, currently winless, second bottom -v- bottom - no thanks. I'd say you'd get a bigger price on Friday.

[adamd164]

Does no one else think 6/1 is very high on Dundalk? Derry haven't exactly been setting the world on fire lately and I think the stakes are getting higher all the time for Sean Connor to start putting points on the board.

[Raheny Red]

Does no one else think 6/1 is very high on Dundalk? Derry haven't exactly been setting the world on fire lately and I think the stakes are getting higher all the time for Sean Connor to start putting points on the board.

Yeah it's a bit high alright but I'll hang on till Friday. I was expecting to see Derry about 8/13 not 2/5!

[MariborKev]

We have been hot and cold at home.

Hold off until you hear the team news- Morrow, O'Brien and McGlynn all got knocks on Friday.

The draw might be worth the punt at 11/4.

[Dodge]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-leagues/other-leagues/ireland/eircom-premier-division

Check on the best prices as ever people

[brianw82]

Cork look a decent bet at 8/13, however, Galway's setup seems to suit them playing away. I'd be wary of this one.

Fingal 2/5 with Boyle. Could be worse, I guess. 10/11 ht/ft might be worthwhile.

[Raheny Red]

Cork look a decent bet at 8/13, however, Galway's setup seems to suit them playing away. I'd be wary of this one.

Fingal 2/5 with Boyle. Could be worse, I guess. 10/11 ht/ft might be worthwhile.

6/4 Hills

[brianw82]

Fingal 4/7 with Hills and Bet365, why didn't I see that earlier? Pretty decent considering they're playing a shoddy Longford side. Let's not forget that 4 of Longford's goals have come against Kildare.

[Sheridan]

I'm thinking Cork, Shels, UCD wins and Drogs-Sligo, Limerick-Waterford draws for the accumulator this week. Think it works out about 40-1.

Miserable showing last week, one result out of five!

[brianw82]

Going to do a Raheny Red-style write up for this. Starting kitty of 5 points.

Longford Town -V- Sporting Fingal

Sporting are really hitting top form after struggling to gel initially, and will take great confidence from their narrow win over Shels. Longford, on the other hand, have been on a miserable run. All the comments on their forum suggest that they're truly brutal at the moment. Their single win has come against the division's whipping boys Kildare, 4-0, who Fingal beat by double that score. I can't see anything other than a handsome Fingal win, but just to be safe, I'm going with the win-draw-win. Slow and steady wins the race.

Longford -V- Sporting Fingal, backing Fingal @ 4/7 (Will Hill) 2.5pts.

[ifk101]

Monaghan is a banker for me this week, they'll probably lose now. :D

[JC_GUFC]

Like a lot of people I'm wary of backing a team who haven't won all season and are on the back of a 6-0 hiding. Backing them at odds on seems to be crazy too but Kildare seem absolutely dire - in every game this season the scoreline appears to have flattered them!

I also think Fingal are very big @ 4/7 - at nearly 6/4 it looks a good double with Hills.

[Raheny Red]

I see Hills have a market for the Mon U and Kildare game for who will keep a clean sheet. Just wondering if anyone has come across a market for either side NOT keeping a clean sheet :confused:

[JC_GUFC]

For Premier Division games Paddy Power price this market - unfortunately they won't be offering it for Kildare's matches!

If anyone is interested this weekend's A Championship matches have been priced as well as the FAI Cup matches.

[Mr A]

For Premier Division games Paddy Power price this market - unfortunately they won't be offering it for Kildare's matches!

If anyone is interested this weekend's A Championship matches have been priced as well as the FAI Cup matches.

I think it's Salthill V Harps this weekend rather than Salthill V Sligo?

[Raheny Red]

For Premier Division games Paddy Power price this market - unfortunately they won't be offering it for Kildare's matches!



I'm actually looking for a price on Mon U conceding, i.e Kildare to go and score a goal :eek:

[brianw82]

For anyone interested in this sort of thing, Mon U v Kildare is currently only 98% covered.
1.57 home win Will Hill
4.5 draw Sporting bet
8.5 away win Bet 365

100e spread correctly gets you 102.37.

[ifk101]

I'm actually looking for a price on Mon U conceding, i.e Kildare to go and score a goal :eek:

There's an internet bookie, expekt.com, that usually offers prices for bets like yours.

Any opinions on Bohs to win and keep a clean sheet, priced at 6/5 with Boyles? Seems on the high side to me.

[brianw82]

expekt have good odds sometimes, but are usually fairly late with their prices.

[JC_GUFC]

I think it's Salthill V Harps this weekend rather than Salthill V Sligo?

The LOI site has it down as Salthill v Sligo - it's a game from later in the season being brought forward for some reason. They're due to play each other in Sligo next week!

[JC_GUFC]

Anyone else think Rovers look a bet this weekend? 2 very inconsistant teams but Rovers have Gary Twigg scoring goals. I think 2.4 is worth backing.

Also backed Sligo at Drogheda at 2.6 and Wexford at home to Harps at 2.3

[brianw82]

I think Rovers v Pats is the weekend's definite "Do not touch!" game. It's even stevens.

[micls]

Bohs, Cork City and Derry treble in the premier, UCD, Fingal and Waterford in the first

[Raheny Red]

I think Rovers v Pats is the weekend's definite "Do not touch!" game. It's even stevens.

The 2.4 looks good though and the stains look weak up front. First Dublin derby in the mountains and Shamrocks will be looking to gain some consistency. My opposing of Pats may continue this weekend.

[brianw82]

I'm actually looking for a price on Mon U conceding, i.e Kildare to go and score a goal :eek:

5/7 on expekt.com for Kildare to score. Evens for them not to.

[eL Bettor]

For anyone interested in this sort of thing, Mon U v Kildare is currently only 98% covered.
1.57 home win Will Hill
4.5 draw Sporting bet
8.5 away win Bet 365

100e spread correctly gets you 102.37.

I notice that Will hills odds were not updating on odds-comparison for most of today. They have cut Mons to 4/11 but it still shows on odds-comp as 4/7 and a 93% book shortly ago with Kildare available somewhere at a huge 11/1.

I went into my local Hills shop today to collect my winnings on Limerick from last week and decided to throw the whole lot on Monaghan @ 4/7 on their midweek coupon with a view to laying a lot of it off on betfair at a much lower price as I did last week for the Limerick-Kildare match. However, this time when she scanned the coupon she told me that the odds were now 4/11. The last few weeks I have been able to take a price from their midweek coupon as much as a day after they have been cut online. I wonder have they changed their system :( or was this just a one-off?

[eL Bettor]

These are my bets for tonight. Note the odds may have changed a little as I placed the bets yesterday and the day before.

Waterford Utd (0) (DNB) (Asian Handicap)

This is 1.98 with Will Hill, a lot lower elsewhere

Waterford have won 3/3 away from home this season in the league. With new manager Stephen Henderson they seem to have adopted a stronger mindset than last season under Gareth Cronin and are capable of grinding out results just as well away from home as in the RSC.
A 6-0 win vs Monaghan last Saturday in a game they completely dominated was their biggest win in several years.
Limerick have won 2/4 at home, but those 2 games were against hopeless Kildare and new boys Mervue in their 2nd game. According to their fans, the only good thing to be said about their easy win over Kildare last week was that it was another 3 points, i.e. not a great performance. They will be missing 2 players who are playing with the Ireland senior schools team vs England on Friday, ironically the game is on in Waterford.
Waterford have 4 wins on the spin now and I expect that to continue and would have them as clear favourites for this game,whereas the bookies price it almost 50-50.

Sporting Fingal -1 (Asian Handicap) @ 1.9
Longford's only win this season was a 4-0 win over hopeless Kildare who look certain to finish bottom. Since that game they have lost 5 in a row, and of those defeats, only Waterford look likely to challenge for promotion. A quick read of their forum shows that their fans are not optimistic this season at all. Fingal on the other hand, keep winning, with 6 wins in a row since a defeat to high-flying UCD. They are unbaten away from home, with 3 wins and a draw (including league cup). That draw was away to Waterford in their first game, which for the majority of the squad was their first competitive game together.
The odds of 1.95 minus 1 are very generous. Fingal are 1.57 to win the game. I would price them at 1.25.

Wexford v Finn Harps: Over 2, 2.5 (Asian Handicap) @ 2.11

Very big price here. Lots of value to be had on over/unders if you pick the correct Irish matches.

Including 2 league cup games, 5 of Harps last 6 games have been overs.
2 of Wexford's last 5 have been overs.
Not a lot else to say other than this is a value bet. Most of the unders in Irish div 1 are between the top teams. The games featuring mid-bottom table teams have more goals yet this is not always reflected in the odds. Take the Over 2.5 @ 2.4 and higher if feeling more adventurous.

[Raheny Red]

Lots of value to be had on over/unders if you pick the correct Irish matches.


Agreed 100% some of the overs prices are a tad OTT. Obviously you shouldn't back them all but you can take out 1 or 2 each week and ensure a profit. Nice write btw.

Bohemians -V- Bray Wanderers

The offer of 13.0 on offer for an away win tonight seems a bit big tonight, I’d have Bray no bigger than 7s. However, I won’t be backing them outright as Bohs should have too much in the tank for them. For the first time this season Eddie Gormley has an injury free Bray squad to choose from. They should cause Bohs a few problems in the first half, or at least prevent Bohs causing problems in the opening period. I’m going to lay Bohs to be leading at half time. Bohs should motor on to win this in the second half especially in the final 25 minutes, but have a feeling Bray could frustrate in the opening 45.


Shelbourne -v- Athlone Town

Shels have suffered 2 defeats in their past 2 league games and will need to get back to winning ways tonight. The past 2 games have shown how poor the Shels defence can be at times. Before the last 2 games the Reds went on a terrific run of clean sheets but in each of those games the back 4 never really looked solid or confident. Dermot Keely’s team news can be taken with a pinch of salt but there’s a slight chance that Shels could be missing up to 3 of their regular defenders. This defence can deal with the long ball all day and night but if Athlone come out and try to play football they will cause the home side a few headaches. A fortnight ago the speed of the UCD strike force just proved how slow the Reds defence can be. “ It seems that fans will be treated to some goals at Tolka Park on Friday night. Of all the teams in the top-six these two have conceded the most goals. Both defences will have to be on their toes however as Athlone’s front-two of Noel McGee and Emeka Onwubiko have hit seven goals so far this season as have Shelbourne strikers Paddy Madden and Anto Flood. (lifted extratime.ie)”. I would be in an agreement with the above. Emeka Onwubiko seems to be one for the future and is currently involved with the Irish Youths. Check out his brace here:
http://www.youtube.com/athlonetowntv?gl=IE&hl=en-GB. Shels should win this one but they will also have to face a couple of problems from the visitors. So with that, I’ll be staying away from the win market and concentrating on the goal scoring.

Backing:

Lay Bohs, half time result (Betfair) @ 1.89 - 0.5 pts
Emeka Onwubiko to score anytime (Powers) @ 4/1 - 0.25 pts
Over 2.5 (Shels V Athlone) (Betfair) @ 2.44 - 1.5 pts

[Raheny Red]

Backing:

Lay Bohs, half time result (Betfair) @ 1.89 - 0.5 pts :(
Emeka Onwubiko to score anytime (Powers) @ 4/1 - 0.25 pts :(
Over 2.5 (Shels V Athlone) (Betfair) @ 2.44 - 1.5 pts:(

3 big duck eggs.

Bohs won the 1st half 2-0 and take it easy in the second half drawing 0-0 so got it wrong big time there. The Shels game could have easily had 3 goals but Flood couldn't finish at least 3 decent chances. Emeka nearly made it 2-1 which would have seen a very nice return. Still though, ****e night financially.

[Raheny Red]

Longford Town -V- Sporting Fingal

This should be a walk in the park for the away side. This is part time V full time. Longford really are poor this season. They’ve only got 4 points all season, a draw in the 1st game against Mon U and a 4-0 win over the shocking Kildare. Since that 4-0 win they’ve played 5 games - all defeats. They’ve only scored 3 goals in that period whilst shipping 10 goals. On the other hand Fingal have really got themselves going after their sluggish start. Their opening 2 games seen them draw with Waterford and lose to Ucd. That’s not the worst considering both of those teams are now 1st and 2nd in the division. A win tonight for Fingal will see them shoot in 2nd place. They’ve won their last 5 league games and more significantly all those victories have come with clean sheets.

LTFC are missing their regular keeper, though they have signed a replacement but the rumours on their forum suggest that he can’t play due to work permit difficulties. So it looks like their manager Alan Gough could be in goal. He’s a former GK himself but is 37 now and not playing regularly so won’t be match fit. The early tissue of 4/7 with Hills is gone now and Fingal are now 4/9. But as usual (strangely) they have changed their win-draw-win markets but none of the others. I’d suggest Fingal to win both halves @ 3/1. Now, as you know yourselves this can always be a tough one to get up. But it seems value as a 4/9 shot shouldn’t be 3/1 to win both halves. However, if this isn’t your sort of market there’s plenty more on the game. All the “info” above suggests a very convincing away win.

Fingal to win both halves @ 3/1 (Hills) - 1 pts.
Fingal to score in both halves (Hills) @ 8/5 - 1 pts
Fingal Ht/Ft (Hills) @ 6/4 - 1 pts

Hills the ****ers have reduced my stakes so can’t get a max bet on so I’ve to spread out my bets. Tossers.

[eL Bettor]

Good luck Raheny Red.
I'm very large on Fingal tonight spread across to win the game @ 4/7 , minus 1 asian hcap @ 9/10 , HT-FT @ 6/4, and win both halves @ 3/1!

I would have priced Fingal at 1/3 for this.

[Raheny Red]

Good luck Raheny Red.
I'm very large on Fingal tonight spread across to win the game @ 4/7 , minus 1 asian hcap @ 9/10 , HT-FT @ 6/4, and win both halves @ 3/1!

I would have priced Fingal at 1/3 for this.

Here's hoping eh?! I was going to lump it all on Fingal to win both halves but Hills have reduced my stakes so it may prove to be a blessing but hopefully a nice 3-0 win, with goals in boths halves - obviously.

[DmanDmythDledge]

What do you mean they've reduced your stakes? Amount you can place on each bet? And just for yourself or in general?

[Mr A]

Have Fingal as part of a treble, Monaghan and UCD already came in so I'm hoping you've this right RR!

[Mr A]

And they're one up already :)

[Raheny Red]

What do you mean they've reduced your stakes? Amount you can place on each bet? And just for yourself or in general?

Yeah they've restricted my bets, bit unfortunate considering they are first with the LoI now.

Fingal 2-0 up now at half time. Hopefully they can keep motoring along for the second half but I'm a bit pessimistic about this one.

Oh and Alan Gough is in goal.

[eL Bettor]

Pity about the Longford goal costing us the win both halves but all the others came in.

And 3 goals in Wexford also, happy days.

[Raheny Red]

Well in eLB

Fingal to win both halves @ 3/1 (Hills) - 1 pts. :(
Fingal to score in both halves (Hills) @ 8/5 - 1 pts :)
Fingal Ht/Ft (Hills) @ 6/4 - 1 pts :)



Lucky enough Hills restricted my stakes otherwise I'd have put it all on Fingal to win both halves. Second half finished 1-1 so that one was a loser thanks to Fingal getting a man sent off!

[DmanDmythDledge]

How does the points thing work?

And has anyone been paid out by PP for Saturday's games? Still waiting myself...

[ifk101]

I think Hills have a very strict limit on League of Ireland bets (with the exception of win market bets) for everyone.

[eL Bettor]

The very strict limits will come in when they realise they are only going to lose money to you on Irish soccer. For me, I suspect that day will come in the next few weeks. Until you are limited you should be able to win a few hundred euro (at least) on any LOI bet with them online.
From what I have heard, they are stricter in-shop than they are online regarding LOI limits (that is if they havent personally restricted your online account yet), i.e. you could bet €300 online on a 4/7 but if you tried to place the same bet in shop it would require a phone call from the cashier and then you're possibly told the max is €200.

Dman..
The points system used by RR is so that you can tell how much he is placing on each bet relative to the others. It doesnt mean much if you only read 1 of his posts but when you check back on them you can see 0.25pts on first goalscorers, and 2 or 3pts on stronger bets. Some people use a scale from 1-10. It's just a better system than talking about cash because a €50 bet to one person could be the equivalent of a €2 bet to someone else.

[ifk101]

I'd only bet for the price of a pint but even at that Hills have limited bets I have had in recent weeks to a euro or two. So considering they had placed a "limit" on my bets, I assume that's the case for everyone else.

[Raheny Red]

I think Hills have a very strict limit on League of Ireland bets (with the exception of win market bets) for everyone.

Nah they only hit me with it recently, don't know when exactly. They wouldn't allow me put a 3 figure sum on Fingal to win both halves, thankfully :). The alst big bet I had with them I think was Ribery to score anytime V Barce so it may be because of that one. There's a Hills 10 mins from my house so if I need to get more on I can just stroll on up to there.

[JC_GUFC]

Hills shops are a bit strange.

A few weeks ago they'd prices for all 1st goalscorers on their website but wouldn't lay me a bet in the shops saying that their internet was different (Ladbrokes claim the same thing sometimes).

When I went into one of their shops on Thursday morning to back Monaghan and Fingal they told me that betting on all Friday's matches (including Premier) was suspended.

In general I find that the Irish firms' shops (Powers, Boyles and the independents) are much more likely to lay a bet and offer concessions. Ladbrokes and Hills are simply here for profit and don't really care about ****ing off customers - the others can't afford to have that attitude.

[brianw82]

Going to do a Raheny Red-style write up for this. Starting kitty of 5 points.

Longford Town -V- Sporting Fingal

Sporting are really hitting top form after struggling to gel initially, and will take great confidence from their narrow win over Shels. Longford, on the other hand, have been on a miserable run. All the comments on their forum suggest that they're truly brutal at the moment. Their single win has come against the division's whipping boys Kildare, 4-0, who Fingal beat by double that score. I can't see anything other than a handsome Fingal win, but just to be safe, I'm going with the win-draw-win. Slow and steady wins the race.

Longford -V- Sporting Fingal, backing Fingal @ 4/7 (Will Hill) 2.5pts.

http://deansguide.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/quagmire.jpg