LOI Round 8: 17-18 April

[eL Bettor]

Odds here:
http://odds-comparison.bestbetting.com/football/european-leagues/rep--of-ireland/

Will Hill nice and early again with the odds as they like to have them in time for their midweek coupon.

Limerick 4/9 at home to Kildare looks good, as does Limerick 5/6 to win to nil, considering Kildare haven't scored and have been defeated heavily in their last 4 games. Also may have a small punt on Limerick to win both halves @ 2/1. Kildare have lost both halves in each of those 4 games also.

Any opinions welcome!

[brianw82]

Yep, backing Kildare to lose looks great at the minute.

[adamd164]

I think Derry 4/5 to beat Bray looks tempting.

[adamd164]

Treble at about 3/1:

Limerick to beat Kildare
Pats to beat Drogs
Derry to beat Bray

[DmanDmythDledge]

Drogs 9/2 to beat Pats is way overpriced.

[brianw82]

Drogs 9/2 to beat Pats is way overpriced.

Cheers for spotting that. Might be worth a speculative punt.

[brianw82]

Double chance on the Drogs is 2.18 with Hills. Pats have conceded 8 and scored 1 in their last 3 games, and can't seem to handle any injuries or suspensions. It's a fair price, considering.
I'll probably hold out for a few days and see if I can get any better prices, though.

[brianw82]

Going for a perm this week. Limerick v Kildare, Pats v Drogheda.

Perm 1: 1, 2 (Bet 365)
Perm 2: 1, X (Will Hill)

Total odds of 2.92.

[holidaysong]

Cork at 11/8 to beat Dundalk looks like great value. We were terrible last night against Shels.

[eL Bettor]

Limerick cut to 1/3 with Hills although 4/9 is still on their midweek coupon in shops.

I see bet365 go a massive 5/1 on Drogheda!
The bet for me is Drogheda @ 4.5 on the Draw No Bet market with bet365, this seems a huge price! If, like me, you are limited to tiny stakes on bet365, then you can get the same bet at 4.2 with Will Hill.

I'll also be taking Cork but hopefully will get a higher price than 2.37 on betfair.

Raheny Red do you think Shels are worth a punt versus Fingal?

[pineapple stu]

Fingal are evens to beat Shels at home with Paddy Power. Shels were poor last week, and Fingal are on fire lately.

Athlone 10/11 to beat Harps at home seems good; Harps have lost the last three in the league, while Athlone are on a bit of form (granted, beating Longford a couple of times). Think Harps will be good at home on their brutal pitch and will struggle away.

[holidaysong]

Fingal are evens to beat Shels at home with Paddy Power. Shels were poor last week, and Fingal are on fire lately.


Shels played very well on Monday night though.

[pineapple stu]

The two reds they got against us - are they served in the next league match or the next match? Two suspensions would weaken the team nicely.

[holidaysong]

Next league match. Who got sent off?

[Raheny Red]

After our defeat last Friday, I was thinking 'I'm gonna lump on Fingal next week' because we were that bad and a few kids made a show of us. However, our display on Monday was great and could have won 5 or 6-0 (we hit the post twice). So I'm staying away from the win markets on this one. We'll be missing Gill and Cassidy due to their sending offs. I'll post up on Friday morning when I hear the team news with a bet that I think has a great chance in this game.

[holidaysong]

Cassidy will be a loss alright. He played very well on Monday and he should never have been allowed to leave Dundalk FC.

[De Town]

i dunno what price they are but mervue at home to the town would be a fairly decent bet. we're ****e to say the least.:(

[Sam_Heggy]

Fingal are evens to beat Shels at home with Paddy Power. Shels were poor last week, and Fingal are on fire lately.

Athlone 10/11 to beat Harps at home seems good; Harps have lost the last three in the league, while Athlone are on a bit of form (granted, beating Longford a couple of times). Think Harps will be good at home on their brutal pitch and will struggle away.

Please elaborate, how do you see our brutal pitch being of benefit to us?

Is it our huge experienced and physical side?
Oh I know, its the fact our side is so much bigger than the other teams in the league.

I think we will struggle home and away tbh. :o

[pineapple stu]

It's the fact that it's a huge leveller, so if a team is better than you, it's less likely to show on what isn't far off an ice rink.

[Sam_Heggy]

It's the fact that it's a huge leveller, so if a team is better than you, it's less likely to show on what isn't far off an ice rink.

I don't buy it, we have a young and physically light team, one that needs to get the ball down on the deck.
90% of teams in the first division are bigger than us, surely the long ball game suits them better and on the FP surface thats about the only option unless you want to be bogged down.

[brianw82]

Limerick cut to 1/3 with Hills although 4/9 is still on their midweek coupon in shops.

Limerick down to 2/9 now with Hills and Bet365.

[harry crumb]

No 2/9 anymore available.

[centre mid]

Doherty, Delaney & Deery all missing against us tonight, Paddy Kavanagh available again although might not start. Derry are a lay tonight for me.

Lay Derry @ 1.93

[DmanDmythDledge]

Are there any bookies offering prices on FD first goalscorer? I thought this market was available earlier in the season.

[Longfordian]

Put on a treble with Drogs +1, Derry-Bray draw, and UCD -1. Paddy Power gave it to me for free which will be a nice bonus if it comes off. 3.50 returns about 50.

[Raheny Red]

The Track are best priced on Limerick @ 1/4.

Even though I've said I can't see Kildare getting more than 5 points there will be one week where there will plenty of burned fingers. Just remember this is the Irish First Division with the majority of the players signed up part time.

[Raheny Red]

St Pats -v- Drogheda United

Once against I’m going against Pats. They are missing quite a few players again tonight through injury and suspension. The fans are not too happy with the start by Kenna and his men and I read this morning that Kenna isn’t even living in Ireland at the moment so that is a ridiculous set up they currently have. He flies in for the games so it will be difficult for him to even know his 11 at this stage. Drogs are nothing special either but they may fancy their chances tonight. I’ll be having two sneaky ht/ft bets on tonight. Draw/Drogs @ 13 and Drogs/Drogs @ 12.


Bray -V- Derry

This is going to be a tight affair and I wouldn’t be surprised with Derry not coming away with all 3 points. In Bray’s 7 league game to date every team has managed to score and that were the first two games that ended 0-0. In Derry’s 7 league game to date there have only been 2 duck eggs also, the first game of the season and the 3-0 thrashing of Pats. Derry have scored in every fixture to date. So with both sides able to score goals as well as concede them I’ll be having a go of both teams to score @ 11/10.


Sporting Fingal -V- Shels

I have a feeling we’ll be seeing a few goals here tonight. Fingal have great quality up front as do Shels and that should see plenty of chances being created tonight. On Monday Shels easily defeated Dundalk 3-0 but should have been doubled that. I believe that this scoreline was down to the 4-3-3 formation Shels went with on the night. With the possibility of the same formation again tonight I’m opting for over 2.5 goals @ 2.46.


Backing Draw/Drogs and Drogs/Drogs @ 13.0 and 12.0 respectively (Betfair) 0.25 pts x2.
Bray -V- Derry backing both teams to score @ 11/10 (Bet 365) 1 pt.
Fingal -V- Shels backing overs @ 2.46 (Betfair) 2pts.

[passinginterest]

I just noticed Wexford Youths are 8-1 with Boyles. I might have a fiver on that considering that Youths beat UCD in the league cup last season and it was pretty much the same UCD side that's playing this year. Youths have strenghtened from last season too and seem to play better away from home, there's also the danger of UCD taking the game a bit lightly after their recent great run. It's definitely not a banker but I think 8-1 is a good price.

[DmanDmythDledge]

Only four players that started that game will start tonight. ;) Our team tonight will be much stronger than the one we put out last season.

[passinginterest]

Only four players that started that game will start tonight. ;) Our team tonight will be much stronger than the one we put out last season.

I had a feeling a might be corrected on that one :p
I still think the price is decent, UCD are a young side and Youths won't be intimidated. I'm sorry I can't make it out there tonight because it should be a decent game.

[pineapple stu]

We deserved a draw in that game last year at the very least (missed a peno for a start). We now have a forward who can score goals (two of them, in fact). And those players now have an extra ten games or so under their belts, which makes a big difference given their lack of experience. If anything, the roll we're on will give the team confidence rather than make them sit back. 8/1's an OK price, but I don't think your logic for going with it is sound. I don't think we'll let you off the hook twice.

[adamd164]

Have to say I don't see where the confidence in Drogs to take anything from Pats is coming. Having seen both sides a couple of times this season, I backed Pats and am still sure they'll win.

[Raheny Red]

Have to say I don't see where the confidence in Drogs to take anything from Pats is coming. Having seen both sides a couple of times this season, I backed Pats and am still sure they'll win.

Pats may win alright but that's a disgraceful price the bookies are offering. They should be odds against!

[centre mid]

In Bray’s 7 league game to date every team has managed to score

We drew 0-0 with Rovers in the first game of the season.

[DmanDmythDledge]

We deserved a draw in that game last year at the very least (missed a peno for a start). We now have a forward who can score goals (two of them, in fact). And those players now have an extra ten games or so under their belts, which makes a big difference given their lack of experience. If anything, the roll we're on will give the team confidence rather than make them sit back. 8/1's an OK price, but I don't think your logic for going with it is sound. I don't think we'll let you off the hook twice.
More importantly Finn will be playing ;) (who would get into most Premier teams). I've backed us -1.

[passinginterest]

More importantly Finn will be playing ;) (who would get into most Premier teams). I've backed us -1.

I put my few quid on anyway. This gambling is turning into a bad habit :D

[brianw82]

Ballbags. I guess with hindsight, I wouldn't have backed Drogs if I had known they'd have so many players missing. The swinger for me was that I didn't want Limerick's price to go any lower.
Putting a few quid on Waterford to beat Mons at 1.56 with Betfair.

Going to get serious with the betting from next week, as the two leagues are starting to shape up nicely.

BTW, well done to passinginterest. Massive shock there.

[pineapple stu]

What can I say. His logic was still kind of unsound, but it panned out as he suggested.

My only redeeming light is that I called Fingal v Shels correctly. :o

[passinginterest]

The logic was pretty much that I'd expect Youths to win more than 1 in eight against UCD, I'd have expected no more than 4/1. As was shown tonight that Youths team has improved a lot on last season and with 4 or 5 attacking players still due back from injury they should get stronger, Youths league position is not particularly reflective of their quality due to a very difficult opening sequence of games, combined with injury and suspension issues.

Anyway this gambling thing is becoming a good habit :D

[Raheny Red]

Backing Draw/Drogs and Drogs/Drogs @ 13.0 and 12.0 respectively (Betfair) 0.25 pts x2. :(
Bray -V- Derry backing both teams to score @ 11/10 (Bet 365) 1 pt. :)
Fingal -V- Shels backing overs @ 2.46 (Betfair) 2pts. :(

1/3 not the worst but still a loss for the night. Must try harder

Was at the Shels game and I must say I was surprised at the lack of Fingal's killer instinct. They could have killed the game off by the hour mark. Instead they score a goal and sit back like Andorra for the rest of the match. Shels had a perfectly good goal disallowed and in the last minute a Shels striker cleared the ball off the Fingal's line with his head

[Raheny Red]

We drew 0-0 with Rovers in the first game of the season.

Yeah I mentioned that alright, just made a balls of my sentence ;)