Budget: April 2009

[pete]

Only a week away. Every economist with any opinion given a platform by the media.

Any predictions?

I don't think we will see much current spending cuts & will mainly be capital. Also looks like many taxes might be delayed until next year as can't be implemented mid-calendar. I guess more income "levies" on the way?

[mypost]

Thread should be merged with the Financial Crisis thread.

Income taxes are certain to be raised. Those on JA/JB will be praying that it escapes the axe, but it will probably be hit. VAT will rise.

The airport tax could be raised. The reliables will be hit of course. And text messages could be hit too.

According to indications so far, none of the proposals put forward by the opposition will be acted upon, and it will be the same tax, tax, tax FF go it alone policy that we have seen up until now, which will see even less consumer spending, more job losses, and deepening the recession.

[OneRedArmy]

Thread should be merged with the Financial Crisis thread. Disagree, that covers the global meltdown of financial institutions.

Agree that direct taxes will go up, but VAT really shouldn't go up. Given the numbers going to the North it could end up reducing revenue.

My main worry is that FF still haven't grasped how much of the tax base was property driven and is gone for the forseeable future.

They managed to get through the last budget with almost no stimulation measures (the Greens puny renewable energy fund aside) I hope they don't make the same mistake again. Not confident though.

JA/JB should be cut by at least 5% to bring it in line with the price index.

[pete]

Social Welfare payments could be cut by X% across a the board.
VAT won't increase.
VRT won't increase.
Excise on drink, cigarettes, fuel will all increase.
PRSI ceiling removed.
Probably won't be a change in pension relief this time.
I think all those "stealth tax" will have a few quid added on top e.g. A&E hospital charges etc...

Don't think the government knows what it is doing yet otherwise it would be leaking info to test the waters.

[Battery Rover]

VAT rate will drop a couple of per cent to try and get people to shop south instead of up north

Levy on everyone will be increased by whatever per cent the VAT is dropped by. Guaranteed way of getting the income doing this.

Extra levy on people who own second, third houses etc.

Excise on alcohol to be reduced to try and stop cross border trade. We see Bulmers and Guinness struggling already with this.

A new 10% tax rate on minimum wage and social welfare to drop by €10 a week as well so it doesnt leave people better off not working.

Increase in tax rates by at least 3% and possible a new 50% plus rate for the high earners.

Excise on fuel and cigarettes might not change as it would lead to people buying across the border

Tax relief on pensions to be scrapped along with bin charges, health insurance, and anything else you can think of

Cull of 10% throughout all departments. Could be achieved by voluntary redundancies or by offering earlier retirement to people who have x amount of years done. These would probably be the highest earners so would save money long term as the newer employees wages could be capped by changing the wage increase structure. Maybe the introduction of a stay at home allowance.

Minimum wage to be reduces to €8

And the sly one a €20 increase on debit / credit cards. Can you actually refuse a debit card from a bank now?

On the tax hikes though I don't think they will come onboard until after the review of the tax system which is due in November I think or am I dreaming

[Macy]

It'll be levies rather than tax hikes for this year, with a worthless promise it'll be put on the tax rates in the December budget (2 or 3 budgets down the line the way things are going).

They'll close some of the construction related tax shelters, 10 years too late, now that the tent goers aren't using them anyway.

PRSI ceiling will go.

Tax relief on pensions only at standard rate.

I don't think they have the balls to touch social welfare, even if there probably is a case.

If they want to reduce public sector numbers, they should introduce Voluntary Early Retirement/ Voluntary Redundancy. Any compulsory redundancies will only hit relatively new starters, not the people they'd want to target.

[KevB76]

Can you actually refuse a debit card from a bank now?

Yes you can.

[mypost]

Disagree, that covers the global meltdown of financial institutions.

JA/JB should be cut by at least 5% to bring it in line with the price index.

The reason we're having a budget, is because of the financial crisis.

The vast majority of those getting €200 per week are struggling to get by already, and will struggle more on €190 per week, from presumably May.

The timing of the Budget is very suspect. Right before the Easter break, in order to avoid hard questions again.

[OneRedArmy]

The reason we're having a budget, is because of the financial crisis.

The vast majority of those getting €200 per week are struggling to get by already, and will struggle more on €190 per week, from presumably May.

The timing of the Budget is very suspect. Right before the Easter break, in order to avoid hard questions again.The reason we're having a budget is because government spending is too high in relation to tax revenue.

As for struggling to get by on €200 a week, that would indicate that they are still getting by. Which means that Govt has discharged it's welfare obligations.

Unless we move to a more progressive system that favours the short-term unemployed, there needs to remain an incentive to work.

[monutdfc]

Public Sector retirement lump sums will be taxed at 17.5-20%; it will be announced in the budget but won't take effect for several months. The hope is that senior people approaching retirement age will retire early, there'll be no upwards promotion to replace them and they'll save a lot of money that way. That's my prediction.

[mypost]

As for struggling to get by on €200 a week, that would indicate that they are still getting by. Which means that Govt has discharged it's welfare obligations.

Unless we move to a more progressive system that favours the short-term unemployed, there needs to remain an incentive to work.

I assume by that, you haven't been on the register before. You can only cope if you have no family commitments.

€200 is an incentive to work. The minimum wage per week is almost double it alone.

[OneRedArmy]

I assume by that, you haven't been on the register before. You can only cope if you have no family commitments.

€200 is an incentive to work. The minimum wage per week is almost double it alone.As I matter of interest I was on it, a long time ago, after I finished college and was looking for a job.

You seem to have forgotten that you get significant other benefits if you have family commitments?

I know quite a few business people who over a period of years were told that their fulltime openings were "unattractive to the unemployed as they would lose their benefits", despite paying above minimum wage.

[KevB76]

As for struggling to get by on €200 a week, that would indicate that they are still getting by. Which means that Govt has discharged it's welfare obligations.

Sadly thats the same view held by the government, people who have no real concept of the meaning of the term "struggle" as its not something they have any experience of.

[OneRedArmy]

Sadly thats the same view held by the government, people who have no real concept of the meaning of the term "struggle" as its not something they have any experience of.Read my post above.

What exactly should the state's obligation be?

[Lim till i die]

A new 10% tax rate on minimum wage and social welfare to drop by €10 a week as well so it doesnt leave people better off not working.

Minimum wage to be reduces to €8


Forgiveness as I'm having a sloow day but wouldn't this mean:

Dole falls to 194.30

40 hours a week @ 8 quid an hour = 320

Taxed @ 10 percent would = 288

5 Days a week for 93.70?? :confused:

[mypost]

You seem to have forgotten that you get significant other benefits if you have family commitments?

I know quite a few business people who over a period of years were told that their fulltime openings were "unattractive to the unemployed as they would lose their benefits", despite paying above minimum wage.

You'll always get rogue claimants. There is 11% of the working population on the dole. 95% of those want to work.

There are other benefits if you have family commitments, but the reason they get them, is because the state recognises that they can't live on JA/JB alone.

[bennocelt]

I assume by that, you haven't been on the register before. You can only cope if you have no family commitments.

€200 is an incentive to work. The minimum wage per week is almost double it alone.

my english mates had a right old laugh when i mentioned how much the dole is in ireland - its a joke - and yes i was on it a few times before

its not only that , its the rent allowance, couples living together drawing it as singles, disability allowance, even the old age pension is too much, etc etc

Think im talking rubbish? i know loads of people that are scamming the social
Its a kick in the balls when the government talks about raising taxes - its hard for working married couples.

[pete]

Compared to the minimum wage the dole is sufficient. With a large family (and welfare that brings) minimum wage position would not be attractive.

Taken with savings and/or dedundency is ok. Certainly no case to increase.

[micls]

There are other benefits if you have family commitments, but the reason they get them, is because the state recognises that they can't live on JA/JB alone.

Exactly....and they're not asked to.

You said you could only scrape by if you didnt have family commitments. If you do have family commitments then there are other welfare options open to you.

If the cost of living is coming down then it makes sense that welfare does likewise, that said I can't see it happening.

JA/JB is supposed to be basic, the just about get by on it so that there arent people tempted in times like these to give up working and just draw the dole. Wages are coming down, a 10% wage decrease factored alongside childcare costs while working etc and 200euro a week can look tempting to someone now on minimum wage, especially if minimum wage is dropped in the budget.

If you're lucky enough to have a 4 day a week job atm on minimum wage you're only coming out with 276.80. If youve young kids and need childcare then its basicaly not worth youre while to work.

Similarly if minimum wage drops(as is being rumoured) to even 8.20 then even a 5 day week will only get you 328euro. Again childcare cost would offset this very quickly.

Im not saying for certain JA/JB should be cut, Im just saying it should be looked at relative to all the other factors. I dont have enough information to decide one way or another

[mypost]

If the cost of living is coming down then it makes sense that welfare does likewise, that said I can't see it happening.

Im not saying for certain JA/JB should be cut, Im just saying it should be looked at relative to all the other factors. I dont have enough information to decide one way or another

Food and drink has gone up and will go up again next week, transport costs have gone up, rents have remained the same. Wages have come down, that's if you have a wage at all.

While there hasn't been a high rise in inflation, the cost of living hasn't come down enough where the social welfare can be cut. When you're on €200, every Euro counts.

On RTE last weekend, Gilmore suggested a third super tax rate to be introduced next week, for the elite earners, while protecting the bottom rung of the society. That is the way to go imo.

[pete]

On RTE last weekend, Gilmore suggested a third super tax rate to be introduced next week, for the elite earners, while protecting the bottom rung of the society. That is the way to go imo.

Apparently it is very difficult to do that mid-year with TFA & such so expect levy to increase.

3.7bn deficit up to March (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0402/breaking73.htm)



Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan tonight admitted the Government¿s fiscal position was "unsustainable" after Exchequer figures showed the deficit in public finances ballooned to €3.7 billion in the first quarter, a tenfold increase on the same period last year.

The Exchequer returns for March show the amount of tax collected by the Government in the first three months of the year is down 23 per cent or €2.6 billion on that collected in the same period last year.

The figures also showed spending was up 6 per cent or €680 million compared to last year due to the increased social welfare payments from the rising numbers of unemployed.

The data shows an Exchequer deficit of €3.7 billion was recorded in the first quarter of 2009 compared to a deficit of €354 million last year.


I am sure those numbers will mean any plans put in place up to now will be scrapped so will start the budget from scratch.

[dahamsta]

The solution should be to create jobs.+1. New Deal economics works, we have proof of it via FDR and we'll have further proof of it via Obama.

[pete]

PR Campaign begins... (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0403/breaking25.htm)



The Government will deliver an emergency budget next week that will be “fair, but very, very firm”, Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey said this morning.

Mr Dempsey said the budget, to be presented to the Dáil by Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan next Tuesday, was in the final stages of preparation. The “broad scope” of expenditure cuts and borrowing requirements has been decided.

He said the budget will be based on Department of Finance figures published yesterday showing the Exchequer income will be about €34 billion for 2009.

Mr Lenihan was “looking at” the cost of social welfare, which accounts for €22 billion each year. “Every area of public expenditure has to be scrutinised and will be scrutinised over the next two or three years. Nothing is ruled out at this stage.”


Social Welfare now costs 2/3 of all government Revenue.

I suppose they might tax social welfare payments like childrens allowance which would make sense. I think the days of flat payments for all that takes no account income is over.

[mypost]

“Every area of public expenditure has to be scrutinised and will be scrutinised over the next two or three years. Nothing is ruled out at this stage.”

Translation: We're cutting social welfare.

Cutting children's allowance may be acceptable, as those claiming it have another means of income, either in or out of a job.

However, cutting standard social welfare, (JA/JB) is the lowest of the low, and unforgivable. Many on it do not have other incomes to fall back on.

[OneRedArmy]

Translation: We're cutting social welfare.

Cutting children's allowance may be acceptable, as those claiming it have another means of income, either in or out of a job.

However, cutting standard social welfare, (JA/JB) is the lowest of the low, and unforgivable. Many on it do not have other incomes to fall back on.Give over.

Deflation is real, regardless of your incorrect statements above claiming prices are going up.

A 5% cut in social wefare will leave the recipient, on average, exactly were they were previously.

[mypost]

Give over.

Deflation is real, regardless of your incorrect statements above claiming prices are going up.

.....


the cost of living hasn't come down enough where the social welfare can be cut.

[bennocelt]

Translation: We're cutting social welfare.

Cutting children's allowance may be acceptable, as those claiming it have another means of income, either in or out of a job.

However, cutting standard social welfare, (JA/JB) is the lowest of the low, and unforgivable. Many on it do not have other incomes to fall back on.

nah dont think so :mad:
prices are coming down everywhere - food, and rent, etc

[Macy]

Apparently it is very difficult to do that mid-year with TFA & such so expect levy to increase.
I think Gilmore suggested it might have to be via a Levy this year, then become a Tax Rate next.


I suppose they might tax social welfare payments like childrens allowance which would make sense. I think the days of flat payments for all that takes no account income is over.
For a lot of middle income people it is an important factor in their budgets, expecially if they are paying childcare. If it is to be taxed, which I wouldn't agree with, the threshold should be be at a very high level rather than just coming in to the normal bands. They should possibly look at scrapping the early childcare supplement and then give it as a tax credit instead for those actually paying for childcare. It'd still be a drop in the ocean compared to the cost of childcare, but at least it'd be targeted.


prices are coming down everywhere - food, and rent, etc
Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages, up 0.8 for the year to Feb 09 according to CSO. Marginally down for in the monthly and 3 monthly figures (0.4 & 0.1%). They don't split out rent. Most of the decreases are on Mortgages and Fuel (and fuel has gone up a lot in preceding years). Using the CPI headline figure can be misleading on day to day costs.

[bennocelt]

Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages, up 0.8 for the year to Feb 09 according to CSO. Marginally down for in the monthly and 3 monthly figures (0.4 & 0.1%). They don't split out rent. Most of the decreases are on Mortgages and Fuel (and fuel has gone up a lot in preceding years). Using the CPI headline figure can be misleading on day to day costs.


nah, i can always buy cheap beer
thank god for those german supermarkets
thats rubbish if you think food prices are gone up - sure if you shop in Marks and Spence and the like

[pete]

Saw little of that politics show on RTE last night & I think Dermot Ahern was on. He was rejecting the notion that fuel prices should be increased.

I expect more moaning after the budget. Every one says they will pay their share but not when it affects them.

[Macy]

nah, i can always buy cheap beer
thank god for those german supermarkets
thats rubbish if you think food prices are gone up - sure if you shop in Marks and Spence and the like
I buy my beer cheaper in Newry.

They weren't my figures, they were CSO figures, but I'm sure you know best. :rolleyes:

I wouldn't say food prices have gone up, however, I see little evidence they have gone down. We have been shopping around for several years, long before the Lidl and Aldi bargain bandwagon was rolling. The family shop for our family hasn't come down. Tesco and Dunnes are only price matching Lidl and Aldi, which is probably what accounts for the small fall with the CSO, so if you were already shopping there you wouldn't see much difference.

[bennocelt]

They weren't my figures, they were CSO figures, but I'm sure you know best. :rolleyes:

I wouldn't say food prices have gone up, however, I see little evidence they have gone down. We have been shopping around for several years, long before the Lidl and Aldi bargain bandwagon was rolling. The family shop for our family hasn't come down. Tesco and Dunnes are only price matching Lidl and Aldi, which is probably what accounts for the small fall with the CSO, so if you were already shopping there you wouldn't see much difference.

well i am finding the prices are down and im not the only one

the LIdl and Aldi baragin bandwagon!!!! WTF its not football you know, when you have spent all your life watching your money you tend to always be on the look out for a bargain, and try and save as much a possible.
Easy to know where you are coming from - hows the wine prices these days:rolleyes:

[Macy]

Good for you, the stuff you buy mustn't be in the CSO basket in that case, but fair play if your food bills are down. It doesn't mean you can extrapolate that out for everyone else as a way of justifying social welfare cuts.

[mypost]

24 hours to when Leno the Knife taxes the country to within an inch of it's life. Hopefully, he won't get another standing ovation.

[eamo1]

Has nobody else noticed that the title of this thread should ACTUALLY read,APRIL 2009 BUDGET,not 2008:p.Cant believe nobody noticed it.

Anyway,budget will be a nail in F.F's coffin.The Bas**rds made a royal F up of the good times.Take a country like Norway who during the good times recognised they(good times) would come to an end and set aside vast amounts for savings.Then in their most recent budgets they annouced huge construction projects with they money they'd saved which will boost their economy.WE CANT EVEN DO THAT WE ARE SO SCREWED:mad:.

[NeilMcD]

Food and drink has gone up and will go up again next week, transport costs have gone up, rents have remained the same. Wages have come down, that's if you have a wage at all.

While there hasn't been a high rise in inflation, the cost of living hasn't come down enough where the social welfare can be cut. When you're on €200, every Euro counts.

On RTE last weekend, Gilmore suggested a third super tax rate to be introduced next week, for the elite earners, while protecting the bottom rung of the society. That is the way to go imo.

Not my opinion but what would you say to the view that people who are at the top of the ladder are the most hard working innovative and intelligent people and why should you punish those that have all those qualities.

[Sheridan]

Not my opinion but what would you say to the view that people who are at the top of the ladder are the most hard working innovative and intelligent people and why should you punish those that have all those qualities.
I'd say "so what's the weather like in cloud cuckoo land these days? Give my regards to Roddy."

[osarusan]

Not my opinion but what would you say to the view that people who are at the top of the ladder are the most hard working innovative and intelligent people
In some cases that is true, and the people who are eligible for the "super tax" are being adequately rewarded for their intelligence and innovation. But certainly not always true - would you describe Gerry Ryan (for example) that way?


why should you punish those that have all those qualities.
Interesting choice of word. Who would you like to see "punished" by increased taxes if not those who can most easily afford it?

[pete]

Take a country like Norway who during the good times recognised they(good times) would come to an end and set aside vast amounts for savings.

Sitting on a load of oil which makes situation a bit different. In the good times we paid off our National Debt but unfortunately will have borrow all the cash again in less than 2 years.

It is surprising that many people including politicians seem to think that a "super tax" will bring a lot of money. Adding even a new 50% tax for say those on 100k+ would not bring in much money.

IMO PAYE should never go above 50% at the absolute maxmium no matter how much someone earns. It would be bad enough that the state would take 1/2 your pay let alone more than you get.

I can see another emergency Budget before the next schedule one as I am not convinced the government know what they are doing.

[NeilMcD]

In some cases that is true, and the people who are eligible for the "super tax" are being adequately rewarded for their intelligence and innovation. But certainly not always true - would you describe Gerry Ryan (for example) that way?


Interesting choice of word. Who would you like to see "punished" by increased taxes if not those who can most easily afford it?

I am just asking the question. There is an argument that if you overly tax the rich well then you "punish" the wealth creators and as a result you take out innovation out of the economy. Its not a view I would subscribe too but its an interesting dilema that we have in a recession. I really do believe in the idea that in a boom you should tax more and in a recession you should have more stimulus measures.

[osarusan]

I am just asking the question. There is an argument that if you overly tax the rich well then you "punish" the wealth creators and as a result you take out innovation out of the economy. Its not a view I would subscribe too but its an interesting dilema that we have in a recession. I really do believe in the idea that in a boom you should tax more and in a recession you should have more stimulus measures.
Fair enough.

I see the point of the argument that over taxing the wealth creators will end up hindering the economy. I think that in this case it would need to be a pretty big increase to make people "leave" the economy who have stayed up until now.

Totally agree that the time to tax was a few years ago and not now.

[kingdom hoop]

Yeah and I suppose in general the higher the earner the more senior in years and therefore the less (to use a little business-book jargon) footloose they are, their 'feet' 'tied' to the country. I suppose you could criticise mammoth taxes on high-earners from the point of view of a lack of attractiveness to high quality workers from abroad coming here. But perhaps, from a regulatory competition perspective, that is offset by high taxes in many jurisdictions at the moment.

I suppose the nub of Neil's point is that the innovators/entrepreneurs (those who really drive the economy rather than just facilitate development, say) - that those people should be pandered to with tax-breaks (perhaps more so than sportstars and artists?).

[mypost]

The coming weeks will be a defining period for the Green Party. They can either stand up, be counted and vote against the budget, and force an election, or they can sit there, do what they're told, and risk going the same way as the PDs just have. A lapdog party seen as part of the problem by a very hostile electorate, and judged by them accordingly.

It's a tough call for Gormley to make.

[Macy]

Sitting on a load of oil which makes situation a bit different. In the good times we paid off our National Debt but unfortunately will have borrow all the cash again in less than 2 years.
Not that different. If we hadn't continually dropped income tax rates to unsustainable levels we could've paid more, or kept it aside for the inevitable rainy day. It's down to mismanagement by the Government, rather than a lack of oil that's the issue.

And even if you do take oil as being the difference. We do have significant resources, however the Government (including the current one with a Green Minister) continue to give them away for peanuts, with little financial upside and no guarantee of supply to us.

So to summerise, they've royally fooked it up either way in comparison to Norwa.


It is surprising that many people including politicians seem to think that a "super tax" will bring a lot of money. Adding even a new 50% tax for say those on 100k+ would not bring in much money.
It's all about optics though. The rich has to be seen to be paying their fair share. Personally, it's more important that they close tax shelters and continually and extensively go after tax loopholes the rich use to avoid paying even at the current rates. For all the talk of x amount of people not paying tax, it includes a significant proportion of rich people avoiding their fair share as well as those on lower incomes.


It's a tough call for Gormley to make.
They'll do nothing until June, when their ministerial pensions kick in. Never mind Planet Bertie, they're loving Planet Freeride.

[mypost]

JA/JB for those over 20 has miraculously escaped the knife. Those under it will receive €100 per week.

Those on the minimum wage are hit.

Income levies to double.

Cigarettes up 25c.

[OneRedArmy]

FF reinforces it's reputation as the politcal wing of the VFI by leaving booze untouched.

Complete lack of consistency on fuel tax. One budget hits diesel, the next petrol etc.

Otherwise no surprises any precious little positives.

Bad bank is required, key issue is what assets go in it and what price Government pay for them.

[Longfordian]

Yeah the diesel tax increase was something that jumped out at me as strange. He says people will buy their petrol in the North if he increases the tax on it, why petrol and not diesel?.

[dublinred]

The 4% income levy kicking in @75k is going to scalp a lot of people , chances are if you are got hit by this you will lose the childrens allowance as well.

[anto1208]

Doesn't really affect me to tell the truth. Jobseekers benifit untouched for over 20's thats me. Booze and petrol left alone thats good. Tax relief still in place if you bought your house less than 7 years ago thats me.

No job
No kids
Dont smoke

Ill have to wait for the full details to come out but i think im pretty much in the same position i was this morning.

[First]

Doesn't really affect me to tell the truth. Jobseekers benifit untouched for over 20's thats me. Booze and petrol left alone thats good. Tax relief still in place if you bought your house less than 7 years ago thats me.

No job
No kids
Dont smoke

Ill have to wait for the full details to come out but i think im pretty much in the same position i was this morning.

Probably in bed , waiting for dole day:p

Its shocking that they have taken away the bonus payment at Xmas for the long term unemployed . I for one remember that this payment was what made sure Santa brought what the child wanted.

It would be more in their interest if they investigated the "cheap flights social welfare migrants" that continue to rape the country.

On a wider vew there is nothing in this budget that will maintain jobs and create more.