Bank Of Ireland

[dublinred]

Are the shares worth buying @.89cents ? I paid more for a Wispa today , surely a good buy for the longterm??

[dahamsta]

It's kind of on the cusp; I realise it's an Irish institution that's unlikely to go bang, but it really is in bad shape. If I had the dosh, I'd wait for an upswing, but you'll need to get your timing right.

[pete]

Market Cap of less than 1 billion.
600m profit in last 12 months.
30 billion in property loans & only a few hundred million debt written off in the last year.

I presume they are now valued at Assets (buildings etc...) - projected (property) bad debts.

Any one know what the markets are speculating their property debts could be? Would 10% be high or low?

It isn't so long ago that BOI made 1 billion profit in 1 year alone....

[anto1208]

Its a gamble they could fly up once everything settles again and it could go all wrong and get nationalised and then i think your shares could be worthless.

Ive gone for the construction industry very large companies with similar priced shares they wont go up to 20 euro like the banks could but i think they are a little safer as there is tons of work being sat on at the moment.

I wouldnt use it as an investment more a bet so dont risk what you cant afford to loose.

[sligoman]

How would you go about buying shares in BOI? Also, anyone know what they cost before all this 'recession' lark hit?

[Poor Student]

Any one know what the markets are speculating their property debts could be? Would 10% be high or low?

OneRedArmy will know better but I think even 3 or 4% would be massive and 10% would devour its capital base. BOI and AIB are constantly revising their bad debt predictions upwards. I think 6 months ago they were predicting somewhere closer to half a percent bad debts and now they're up over a percent. The market obviously doesn't have faith in their predictions hence the falling values. We seem to be edging closer to the state having to recapitalise some or all of the Irish banks.

[MariborKev]

OneRedArmy will know better

I suspect he is lying in a dark room somewhere, or wandering around in a Tom the Gom stylee muttering about the death of the free market.

[OneRedArmy]

I suspect he is lying in a dark room somewhere, or wandering around in a Tom the Gom stylee muttering about the death of the free market.How close you are!!

Peak was at 18.60 in Feb 2007.

Should you buy them now?
I honestly don't know. Falls firmly into the other thread on when will the recovery start.

I really find it hard to pick out much between the Irish banks at the minute and I still believe the Government will force consolidation (ie mergers) as part of a re-capitalisation which everyone knows has to happen (why the banks won't admit it I've no idea, its not like they have much to lose in terms of credibility at this stage).

As for the losses, its depends on what type of loans are hit. Property development loans are absolutely, positively up the swanee without a paddle. Losses will be catastrophic. But even without a re-capitalisation the banks could just about survive this.

The worry is residential mortgages and customer credit, where defaults are still very low (despite what Primetime might have you believe). There is upward movement here and as I've said over the last 6-9 months, if unemployment keeps going up strongly, then all bets are off.

So in summary, there's probably value in the bank shares if you are willing to hold for the long-term, but when you consider that in order to be re-capitalised to the same core tier 1 ratio as RBS and HBOS, the Irish banks would have to issue 100-200% of existing shares (!), then there is a huge degree of dilution of existing shareholders coming down the tracks.

[Macy]

Are the shares worth buying @.89cents ? I paid more for a Wispa today , surely a good buy for the longterm??
As others have said, treat it as a long term gamble rather than an investment. If you look at other boards, you can go back and see people asking the same question when they went under a fiver, and under €2, saying they can't go any lower!

[rebs23]

Just registered with Fexco, so going to put a punt of €1,000 of the wifes redundancy on BOI! Thats the way the modern recession works, the market collapses out of peoples greed, people loose their jobs and then we use their redundancy to pump it back into the market. Isn't Capitalism great.:)

[dublinred]

As others have said, treat it as a long term gamble rather than an investment. If you look at other boards, you can go back and see people asking the same question when they went under a fiver, and under €2, saying they can't go any lower!

Still thinking about buying some but worried about possible effects of dillution if as expected the government pumps 2bln into them which would in theory give them 67% ownership.

[dahamsta]

Doesn't it take 10 days or so to open an account? Might be 10 days too late. :)

Spread betting is another option, but I'd guess the odds are awful.

adam

[rebs23]

Just came through today and it does take a few days, passport required etc. Still worth doing, I reckon.

[dahamsta]

What kind of account did you apply for? Was the process onerous and/or expensive? I've been meaning to open a stockbroking account for ages but they all seem to require a ridiculous up-front deposit and lengthy registration process.

Anyone else any experience of this? Any recommendations?

adam

[OneRedArmy]

Why not just spread bet or do contracts for difference?

Much cleaner from an admin perspective.

[Dodge]

For the record BOI shares are 115 at the moment.

[dublinred]

What kind of account did you apply for? Was the process onerous and/or expensive? I've been meaning to open a stockbroking account for ages but they all seem to require a ridiculous up-front deposit and lengthy registration process.

Anyone else any experience of this? Any recommendations?

adam

Sharewatch have an instant account but you can only buy upto 15k worth of shares , its about 50quid a trade also so you would want be buying at least 5k worth to make the chage around 1% which is normal.

[rebs23]

What kind of account did you apply for? Was the process onerous and/or expensive? I've been meaning to open a stockbroking account for ages but they all seem to require a ridiculous up-front deposit and lengthy registration process.

Anyone else any experience of this? Any recommendations?

adam

Fexco seemed the easiest, which is why I went with them. Just €20 to set up, proof of address and passport required, took a few days and for your first trade you need to have the money in the account you set whether by bank draft, cheque, cc, etc.
They have offices in Cork and Dublin and just ring them up to do a trade on the balance of your account.
Well worth doing and you have a lot greater control of your investments, however small. Best of luck.
PS; Don't forget to have a look at the charges for trades. eg 1.25% up to 9,000 and Min Commission of €5 and admin charge of €7.50, etc so you'd have to calculate all of that into your decisions to buy or sell.

[dahamsta]

Thanks for the info reb23. Do they not have a web interface?

[Dodge]

http://www.fexcostockbroking.com/

lazy....

[dahamsta]

I just assumed, cos he was talking about phone trades in the case above. I wonder are they different products or services.

Hate the phone.

[Heliodorus]

Just walk into an AIB branch with youre passport and another form of identification and they can buy any share you like not just in Ireland but in europe as well (and I assume The US, japan etc) as they own Goodbodys stockbrokers. I always buy my shares this way.

[Reality Bites]

Looks Like Anglo are Finished

[OneRedArmy]

Looks Like Anglo are FinishedI think they are finished as an independent entity at any rate.

All eggs in one basket, as opposed to the other Irish banks who only had too many eggs in the one basket.

Loving the Governments re-capitalisation "plan". To say its light on detail is an understatement. They clearly had to rush it out over the weekend because of Anglo's share collapse last week.

This Government has been absolutely reactive to every facet of the "financial crisis". 9 months in denial and then 3 months of trying to play catch-up. Shocking stuff.

Also, still waiting for one prominent head to roll in the banking industry....staggering.

Ireland doesn't do accountability...

[Reality Bites]

What then happen to Anglos Debts to Property Developers- are they submerged into which ever Bank takes them over.. or are the property developers declared insolvent?? also what of the Anglo staff are they out on their bums and more importantly do Drumm and the other Head boys get the gate also ...

[OneRedArmy]

What then happen to Anglos Debts to Property Developers- are they submerged into which ever Bank takes them over.. or are the property developers declared insolvent?? also what of the Anglo staff are they out on their bums and more importantly do Drumm and the other Head boys get the gate also ...Other way around, the developers owe the banks!

Loans would be transferred to whoever the acquirer is. Fairly standard stuff.

I wouldn't focus as much on Anglo, ALL the banks are likely to shed large numbers of staff. Most have had hiring bans in place for over 6 months so natural attrition is already reducing numbers and I would say that large scale cutbacks (wholesale closures of services lines, locations, products etc.) will begin in the New Year in all the big institutions.

Put simply, they are all resourced for a level of business that won't be coming back for a while (or ever in the case of some structured products).

[Den Perry]

I'd better write for trials to some clubs so...am I past it at 35?

[OneRedArmy]

I'd better write for trials to some clubs so...am I past it at 35?Join the club!

[Poor Student]

Most have had hiring bans in place for over 6 months so natural attrition is already reducing numbers and I would say that large scale cutbacks (wholesale closures of services lines, locations, products etc.) will begin in the New Year in all the big institutions.

Put simply, they are all resourced for a level of business that won't be coming back for a while (or ever in the case of some structured products).

I think recruitment bans have been in place closer to a year. Natural attrition has probably run its effectiveness. Now that unemployment figures are growing rapidly and well published, less people are leaving their jobs. This article says BOI and AIB had shed about 600 jobs each since the start of the year: http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1015258.shtml . No doubt the figure is larger now but I don't think it's anywhere near the level that will be desired soon and that's without the probable mergers/consolidation.

[pete]

This Government has been absolutely reactive to every facet of the "financial crisis". 9 months in denial and then 3 months of trying to play catch-up. Shocking stuff.

Also, still waiting for one prominent head to roll in the banking industry....staggering.

Ireland doesn't do accountability...

What do you expect when the people who were charged with regulating the sector are now leading the "solution".

Seems the government has put aside 10 billion & has told the banks to let them know when they need it. The leaders of the banks don't want mergers or government involvement in their affairs as they may lose their own jobs.

[pineapple stu]

Bump.

Bank of Ireland down to 30p a share, AIB down to 43p.

If the OP had gone on his hunch, his money would be more than halved by now. It can't do that again. Can it?

[OneRedArmy]

Bump.

Bank of Ireland down to 30p a share, AIB down to 43p.

If the OP had gone on his hunch, his money would be more than halved by now. It can't do that again. Can it?
Of course it can!

Paddy Power are offering odds of 1-3 (iirc) that Anglo shareholders will get nothing.

Investors have taken this on board, assessed whether they think BoI and AIB will get nationalised and what they will get out of a nationalisation.

And sold.

[Battery Rover]

Bank of Ireland looking like the next one to fall

Current Price 28.3c per share. Share price has fallen 11.7c already this morning

[hula4]

excuse my ignorance but outside of shares, people who have accounts with boi, if it does fall as mentioned, is that money safe?

[KevB76]

excuse my ignorance but outside of shares, people who have accounts with boi, if it does fall as mentioned, is that money safe?


Somebody with money in the bank? Thats a rarity!

I think what most of us really want to know is - will our loan repayment commitments disappear with the demise of the bank?

[hula4]

Somebody with money in the bank? Thats a rarity!

I think what most of us really want to know is - will our loan repayment commitments disappear with the demise of the bank?

a recession is great for the gardai!!

that would be great wouldnt it? bank goes under and all of a sudden the mortgage goes out the window.

i cant imagine that would be the case though would it?

[Poor Student]

excuse my ignorance but outside of shares, people who have accounts with boi, if it does fall as mentioned, is that money safe?

Technically every cent of all deposits are guaranteed by our government, whether they could actually afford to pay up on that guarantee is a different story. The activities at Anglo, scandals and nationalisation, have further shaken confidence abroad in the entire Irish banking system which is being reflected in the big two's share price. I'm sure bad debts are going to take its toll on BOI but they still have a strong deposit base and retail network. Unlike Anglo, AIB and BOI actually provide a service to this country in terms of basic activities like bill paying, cheque encashment, money transmission etc. The strategy of the big two will be cost reduction and deleveraging. Combined with government recapitalisation this will hopefully stabilise them, although there are continuing painful times ahead even in this event.

[monutdfc]

that would be great wouldnt it? bank goes under and all of a sudden the mortgage goes out the window.

i cant imagine that would be the case though would it?
In a word, no

[hula4]

In a word, no


thought as much, was a nice thought while it lasted though