View Full Version : Economic Recovery
OneRedArmy
16/04/2009, 2:08 PM
I can see how it suits the Government, but I don't see how it suits the opposition? All this happened on FF/PD/Green watch. The banks were a major part of the problem aided and abetted by Government - it just so happens that the main benificaries were the developers and builders who are major backers of FF.
I don't actually recall agreeing with the premise in the first place tbh.The property developers were the biggest gainers in absolute terms, but in comparative terms you bring a lot more people into the net.
As an example, rank and file gardai are generally seen as being reresentative of "the working man". Yet they have some of the highest ownership rates of investment property, to the extent their union tried to push for a special tax break to get them out of the hole they had dug themselves!!
As an example, rank and file gardai are generally seen as being reresentative of "the working man". Yet they have some of the highest ownership rates of investment property, to the extent their union tried to push for a special tax break to get them out of the hole they had dug themselves!!
Cops having several houses is hardly a new thing, however, I'd say a lot of people that had high overtime are now being quite badly hit. Overtime is one of the first things to go (even in the guards). Who was it who allowed the banks to lend based on overtime? The general population isn't faultless (they keep voting FF FFS) - however, they were getting it from every angle that it was a gravy train that would never stop, never mind crash and burn. This was fed by the likes of Ahern and the rest of Government (remember the "suicide" comments about people questioning how sustainable the boom was?), and then facilitated by Government by allowing dubious lending practices by the banks.
NeilMcD
16/04/2009, 3:09 PM
Macy I thinkyour argument that the general population are too stupid to think for themselvs but those coniving big business people are the bad guys is verysimplistic. I have no sympathy for stupid people. If we did reward or refund stupidity were would be as a race of people if you believe in Darwinism.
bennocelt
16/04/2009, 3:46 PM
I agree with you there ORA and in addition to iI have one problem which is that they say things like we all lost the run of ourselves and we are all the blame etc. Well sorry I did not lose the run of myself and I know lots who did not. I did not take out a mortgage or a car loan and I do not have any debt of any kind. I did not decide to have kids I could not afford. In fact I did not do anything that I could not afford and all my outgoings are sustainable.
Def agree with this:)
Here too - no mortgage, no car, no huge loans (credit card apart!), and in a year or two will be ready to plunge into the property market with wife! Im happy that food, etc are going down in price, house prices are down, electricity and gas down, etc etc
Lucky? nah just didnt think buying a mortgage in Longford, etc for 300,000 is a good purchase!
(by the way travel from Sligo to Mullingar and see all the near empty housing estates!!!! Kind of scary really!)
see that silly cow on TV last night - a young teacher trying to "have a word" with Jacob saying she has only about 94 euros left after all her expenses!!!! Wellw hat is she doing with a 300,000 mortgage for a single woman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! She should resign her job and give it to someone who can appreciate a 40,000 yearly salary
The greed in this country is a joke! When will we ever learn!!!:mad:
There is a noticable trend now. Any one who is able to organise themselves into a special interest group is pleading for special treatment.
The teachers & doctors are moaning this week saying their funding & wages should not reduced but no suggestion where the money will come from. Everyone wants some else to take the cuts.
OneRedArmy
16/04/2009, 4:48 PM
Teachers are another group of people who feature highly in the investment property owning stakes.
Re the teachers conferences, whilst they have a valid point about special needs teaching (disgraceful situation), they haven't a leg to stand on concerning their remuneration. When you break it down on an hours worked basis the average teacher earns €100 per hour.
Reminds me of the joke that the collective noun for a group of teachers (herd of buffalo, pride of lions etc.) is a whine of teachers.
NeilMcD
16/04/2009, 7:36 PM
Women seem to have a fascination with property. The amount of my female friends who were mad to buy houses and were having a go at me for not buying etc. I preferred to read the economic books while they read and watched the property shows. I thought the show recently by George Lee How we blew the boom was a comedy show.
When you break it down on an hours worked basis the average teacher earns €100 per hour.
:eek: I want to work wherever those teachers work....
osarusan
16/04/2009, 8:08 PM
When you break it down on an hours worked basis the average teacher earns €100 per hour.
Any source for this?
OneRedArmy
16/04/2009, 9:13 PM
:eek: I want to work wherever those teachers work....
Any source for this?
Fair point, just did a rough calculation in
my head (teachers in the family so fair idea of hours and pay) and it's well off anything bar 3rd level.
FWIW it was quoted on Newstalk this morning.
Billsthoughts
16/04/2009, 10:10 PM
Over 50% of new mortgages in Ireland the period 2003-2006 were investment loans.
Endemic greed caused what happened and the people of Ireland shoulder a fair bit of the blame themselves.
The banks lent money on property values that were proven to be unsustainable. If someone can get a loan for a house and then rent that house for the same as their repayments then why wouldnt they? Hardly endemic greed.
I agree with you there ORA and in addition to iI have one problem which is that they say things like we all lost the run of ourselves and we are all the blame etc. Well sorry I did not lose the run of myself and I know lots who did not. I did not take out a mortgage or a car loan and I do not have any debt of any kind. I did not decide to have kids I could not afford. In fact I did not do anything that I could not afford and all my outgoings are sustainable.
You have been pedaling this tripe in a number of threads. Being adverse to any risk whatsover in your life does not make you some sort of economic Nostradamus. So spare us the "I told you so". Its the equivalent of the guy who goes to the niteclub and doesnt speak to any women and then slags his mates for getting knocked back.
see that silly cow on TV last night - a young teacher trying to "have a word" with Jacob saying she has only about 94 euros left after all her expenses!!!! Wellw hat is she doing with a 300,000 mortgage for a single woman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! She should resign her job and give it to someone who can appreciate a 40,000 yearly salary
The greed in this country is a joke! When will we ever learn!!!:mad:
For teachers they dont seem to up on maths.
Women seem to have a fascination with property. The amount of my female friends who were mad to buy houses and were having a go at me for not buying etc. I preferred to read the economic books while they read and watched the property shows.
:confused:
Possibly they needed somewhere to make a home Neil.
NeilMcD
16/04/2009, 10:57 PM
The banks lent money on property values that were proven to be unsustainable. If someone can get a loan for a house and then rent that house for the same as their repayments then why wouldnt they? Hardly endemic greed.
You have been pedaling this tripe in a number of threads. Being adverse to any risk whatsover in your life does not make you some sort of economic Nostradamus. So spare us the "I told you so". Its the equivalent of the guy who goes to the niteclub and doesnt speak to any women and then slags his mates for getting knocked back.
For teachers they dont seem to up on maths.
:confused:
Possibly they needed somewhere to make a home Neil.
Whats wrong with renting, works for most of continental europe. I am not adverse to risk at all what I am adverse too is investing in the biggest investment of my life in an overlpriced asset. Also I never claimed to be an economic nostradamus, I am just saying an awful lot of peopel were stupid and now they blame it on the banks, the government or those evil faceless rich guys, some where, they maybe should try take a look at themselves but generally the man on the street does not want to do this.
In addition, I do not think it should be easier for someone to buy a 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th house than it is for someone to buy a 1st house. This country placed property as the number one source of investment for people rather than proper entrepreneurship and investing in businesses that actually export and generate sustainable income for the country rather than a bubble that only artificially inflates the domestic market and drives up wages across the board as people look for higher wages to meet mortgage repayments to get on the so called property ladder. We have got to see that houses are homes and get back to basics, no country has ever got itself rich on a sustainable basis by selling houses to each other. That is where this country has gone wrong and lots of people played their part, the government, bankers, developers, the big investors, the small time property investor and to a lesser extent but still culpable the 1st time buyer or the person who climbed the property ladder.
Dodge
16/04/2009, 11:10 PM
Whats wrong with renting, works for most of continental europe.
Most of continental europe have rent controls and other procedures to protect both the landlord and tenant
Personally speaking though my mortgage is a good deal less than my previous rent was.
NeilMcD
16/04/2009, 11:16 PM
Most of continental europe have rent controls and other procedures to protect both the landlord and tenant
Personally speaking though my mortgage is a good deal less than my previous rent was.
I agree and we should have better rent controls here but they have improved esp since the establishment of the PRTB. Also if your mortgage is chepaer than what you were paying in rent well then you have picked a sustainable choice and fair play. I dont want people to think that I am of the view that all buying of houses is bad and than all renting is good as this is clearly not the case.
kingdom hoop
16/04/2009, 11:53 PM
Just a broad little thought: Do you think recovery might come about from a simple enough "getting over the worst of the recession" or will something more forceful be required to propel our local and the international economy towards growth once again?
Just a broad little thought: Do you think recovery might come about from a simple enough "getting over the worst of the recession" or will something more forceful be required to propel our local and the international economy towards growth once again?
I think Obama is going to save the world to be fair
OneRedArmy
17/04/2009, 6:33 AM
The banks lent money on property values that were proven to be unsustainable. If someone can get a loan for a house and then rent that house for the same as their repayments then why wouldnt they? Hardly endemic greed.Of course it is!
Thats precisely why, unlike primary dwelling mortgages, banks are entitled to treat investment loans applicants as professional investors and consumer protection laws don't apply.
Also, in terms of your example, I'm not aware of rental yields getting anywhere near that in the last 5 years. People bought on the expectation of capital appreciation.
Macy I thinkyour argument that the general population are too stupid to think for themselvs but those coniving big business people are the bad guys is verysimplistic. I have no sympathy for stupid people. If we did reward or refund stupidity were would be as a race of people if you believe in Darwinism.
I'm not saying they were stupid necessarily, just they were caught in all the hype. The media, both TV and print was full of stuff about "investment" properties, and it appeared to be easy money to be had. They may have been greedy, maybe worried about their pension provisions, maybe even stupid. They weren't protected by those charged with protected them
We had to actually fight to get the mortgage we wanted - the banks were throwing money at us telling us to take more. It would've been very easy to take the extra. We'd be fooked now though.
On the rants against Teachers and Guards, some of it may be valid. However, I think some of you might be underestimating the impact of the pay cut/ pension levy. There may be a case that rates of pay increased too much, but people made committments based on what they were getting paid.
NeilMcD
17/04/2009, 11:34 AM
I have said nothing about any sector of society like Guards or Teachers as I dont want to group people by their job but more by their behaviour.
I have said nothing about any sector of society like Guards or Teachers as I dont want to group people by their job but more by their behaviour.
Sorry, that wasn't aimed at you, just at some of the other posts on the thread.
Billsthoughts
17/04/2009, 1:06 PM
Of course it is!
Thats precisely why, unlike primary dwelling mortgages, banks are entitled to treat investment loans applicants as professional investors and consumer protection laws don't apply.
Also, in terms of your example, I'm not aware of rental yields getting anywhere near that in the last 5 years. People bought on the expectation of capital appreciation.
Well following your logic you could call any form of economic activity "greed" driven?
I am going on people I actually know who have more than one house.
Rent would be majority if not all of the mortgage repayments. Certainly none of them were looking to sell short term for a profit. I think your including people "trading up".
Whats wrong with renting, works for most of continental europe. I am not adverse to risk at all what I am adverse too is investing in the biggest investment of my life in an overlpriced asset. Also I never claimed to be an economic nostradamus, I am just saying an awful lot of peopel were stupid and now they blame it on the banks, the government or those evil faceless rich guys, some where, they maybe should try take a look at themselves but generally the man on the street does not want to do this.
In addition, I do not think it should be easier for someone to buy a 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th house than it is for someone to buy a 1st house. This country placed property as the number one source of investment for people rather than proper entrepreneurship and investing in businesses that actually export and generate sustainable income for the country rather than a bubble that only artificially inflates the domestic market and drives up wages across the board as people look for higher wages to meet mortgage repayments to get on the so called property ladder. We have got to see that houses are homes and get back to basics, no country has ever got itself rich on a sustainable basis by selling houses to each other. That is where this country has gone wrong and lots of people played their part, the government, bankers, developers, the big investors, the small time property investor and to a lesser extent but still culpable the 1st time buyer or the person who climbed the property ladder.
There is nothing wrong with renting. But it doesnt suit everyone.
Prices kept going up because the banks kept lending the money to sustain the price increases. So no the ordinary worker who just wanted a place to live shouldnt take the blame for the current mess. The banks and the Government who were using the property market as a golden goose should.
NeilMcD
17/04/2009, 2:34 PM
What circumstances means that somebody must buy a house and they cannot rent and now cannot afford their mortgage and will lose their house. You should not buy a house unless you can afford to pay the mortgage for the duration of its time and not take out income protection. Anybody who is an unsafe industry and does not take out income protection is a fool. People in this country thought it was their god given or human right to own a house.
NeilMcD
17/04/2009, 9:25 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLA-4zZM0cI
Fair point, just did a rough calculation in
my head (teachers in the family so fair idea of hours and pay) and it's well off anything bar 3rd level.
FWIW it was quoted on Newstalk this morning.
Sounds like exaggerated rubbish to me ORA.
Based on primary school scenario(my own experience) we work 1093 hours a year(not taking into account planning etc, just in the class with the kids).
So for it to be 100euro an hour on average the average teacher would have to be earning 109,300 a year, which simply isnt the case.
I know Im lucky, but I earn 40k a year before tax and the pension levy etc, so Im a fair way off your 100euro an hour, as is every teacher I know.
Take home after the pension levy and income levy is now about 27-28k a year.
Teachers should have ther hours formalised e.g. 3.30-5.30 every day is used for preparing & corrections in the school. Can also use for PT meetings. Would never be able to use the line that teachers work half days any more.
micls
22/04/2009, 11:35 AM
Teachers should have ther hours formalised e.g. 3.30-5.30 every day is used for preparing & corrections in the school. Can also use for PT meetings. Would never be able to use the line that teachers work half days any more.
Makes sense to me but its stuff being done anyway and I cant say Im that bothered about what others think of my hours.
I'd say the average teacher would do 1-2 hours outside school time a day, you'd have some doing more(especially younger teachers) and obviously others doing less.
Id imagine its far from the only profession where people do overtime like this though.
dahamsta
22/04/2009, 11:48 AM
Let's kick back to the original topic, it's been 4 or 5 months now. Has anyone changed their opinion? Reduced or increased? I'm still happy enough with post #1 tbh.
Let's kick back to the original topic, it's been 4 or 5 months now. Has anyone changed their opinion? Reduced or increased? I'm still happy enough with post #1 tbh.
I'll also stick with my late 2010. If we can't get 2 positive growth quarters by then might as well emigrate. I think recovery in the sense than unemployment is coming down quickly may take longer.
OneRedArmy
22/04/2009, 1:35 PM
What's become clearer since the start if this thread is that Ireland's recovery will lag behind most other develops countries and the long-term impact in terms of debt and international credibility will be deeper than elsewhere.
As asmall open economy, the sooner the world recovers the better, but our growth will be weighed down by the property millstone around our necks for years to come.
Let's kick back to the original topic, it's been 4 or 5 months now. Has anyone changed their opinion? Reduced or increased? I'm still happy enough with post #1 tbh.
Of course you are, you didn't answer your own question in post 1
I'm sticking with my answer in post 2 too
dahamsta
22/04/2009, 2:20 PM
Of course you are, you didn't answer your own question in post 1New reading glasses fella.
dahamsta
29/04/2009, 4:47 PM
pete's posts move to the Unemployment thread (http://foot.ie/forums/showthread.php?p=1152149#post1152149).
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