Kenny says early general election likely

[Ringo]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/1102/kennye.html


Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has reiterated his belief that a General Election could be called next year in light of the current financial crisis.

Mr Kenny told RTE's 'The Week in Politics', that he could envisage becoming Taoiseach without an election taking place as happened in 1994 when John Bruton led a rainbow government.

if this goverment was to fall apart , it should have done so by now.

[Newryrep]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/1102/kennye.html



if this goverment was to fall apart , it should have done so by now.

Agreed, Pat Kenny currently has a better chance of being Taoiseach than Enda Kenny.

[Reality Bites]

If Richard Bruton was the leader of FG I would be inclinced to agree with a push for change, Cowen is unconnected with the masses and proved himself wanting in first the Lisbon treaty his dealing with Public Finances, while Richard Bruton (probably qualified) is a very good spokesman on the economy - I would say a coalition of FG and Labour while not ideal would be an improvement

[Newryrep]

If Richard Bruton was the leader of FG I would be inclinced to agree with a push for change, Cowen is unconnected with the masses and proved himself wanting in first the Lisbon treaty his dealing with Public Finances, while Richard Bruton (probably qualified) is a very good spokesman on the economy - I would say a coalition of FG and Labour while not ideal would be an improvement

Bruton lost it for me after his encounter with Matt cooper on the Last Word when he consistantly avoided answering whether he would take the then planned rise in TD's/ministers salary - it was like Paxman/Howard MkII

[bennocelt]

Bruton lost it for me after his encounter with Matt cooper on the Last Word when he consistantly avoided answering whether he would take the then planned rise in TD's/ministers salary - it was like Paxman/Howard MkII

His funny 5 % cut was really foolish - it was just asking the governnment to come out with a 10% cut and made his gesture look silly

[pete]

Hard to know how an alternative government would work. FF looking for public sector cuts won't sit well with Labour links to the unions.

[Macy]

Hard to know how an alternative government would work. FF looking for public sector cuts won't sit well with Labour links to the unions.
Unfortunately for both sides, the links between Labour and the Trade Unions is over played in reality rather than the obvious historical links. Social Partnership cosying up to FF, and benchmarking came under FF/PD coalitions. I think it was Rabitte who said Irish Trade Union members think Labour but vote FF, and that's reflected in some of the leadership.

As to whether there'll be an election, it'll depend on how hard the Green necks are. They probably dodged a political pressure bullet by Harney's shameless burying the news of her basically condemning women to cancer in the future. But a few more annoucements like that then they'd surely begin to seriously wobble - if not the TD's the pressure from their members.

The cynic in me would also suggest that Kenny could have been shoring up the panicky FF back benchers. Surely he'd want FF to have at least one more deeply unpopular budget before riding to the rescue?

[pete]

The cynic in me would also suggest that Kenny could have been shoring up the panicky FF back benchers. Surely he'd want FF to have at least one more deeply unpopular budget before riding to the rescue?

You would think so as FF polling would drop even future. FG & Labour would surely prefer an election to get more seats rather than reshuffling the current Dail.

[Macy]

You would think so as FF polling would drop even future. FG & Labour would surely prefer an election to get more seats rather than reshuffling the current Dail.
If the polls are right they'd be mad to go in with an Anyone But FF coalition rather than election. As things stand they'd be on course for a 2 party coalition, regardless of whether the Green vote holds up (I personally don't see them getting the transfers to enable that), with FF decimated to such a degree that it'd take them two elections to recover.

[mypost]

You would think so as FF polling would drop even future. FG & Labour would surely prefer an election to get more seats rather than reshuffling the current Dail.

We're only a few months from the mid-term reshuffle, after the European elections.

Personally, I don't think there will be an early election, and it's not the wisest move from Inda to pre-empt one.

[Ringo]

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/politics/support-for-govt-down-28-points-to-just-18-1539017.html


The TNS/mrbi survey in the Irish Times puts the coalition's satisfaction rating at just 18%, down 28 points since the last poll in June.

Fianna Fail's support is down 15 points to 27%, while Fine Gael is up 11 points to 34% and Labour is down one point to 14%.

Sinn Fein's support is unchanged at 8% and the Greens are down one point to 4%.

Elsewhere, the poll also found that Labour's Eamon Gilmore is the most popular party leader with a 38% satisfaction rating.

Fine Gael's Enda Kenny (33%) is now more popular than Brian Cowen, whose support is down 21 points to 26%.

Green Party leader John Gormley has also seen his popularity fall 12 points to 28%, while Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams is down 12 points to 33%.

A snap shot in time. Nothing really surprising here. FF are obviously unpopular at the moment. The only worrying thing for Fine Gael is that Enda Kenny’s popularity is down despite the fact of the huge support for Fine Gael.

[pete]

A snap shot in time. Nothing really surprising here. FF are obviously unpopular at the moment. The only worrying thing for Fine Gael is that Enda Kenny’s popularity is down despite the fact of the huge support for Fine Gael.

If he could get to 50% would be an achievement. Not sure if the leaders popularity mean much though as Gerry Adams is down 13% & he hasn't said or done anything for a long time.

In todays poll you can see though that all the FF votes going straight to FG as no other opposition party picked up anything. Labour saw no gain at all. Others up by a lot but maybe thats a "none of the above" pick?

Seems there is no mood for move to the political left?

[Macy]

A snap shot in time. Nothing really surprising here. FF are obviously unpopular at the moment. The only worrying thing for Fine Gael is that Enda Kenny’s popularity is down despite the fact of the huge support for Fine Gael.
Wouldn't think it's that relevant tbh, once FG are doing so well.


In todays poll you can see though that all the FF votes going straight to FG as no other opposition party picked up anything. Labour saw no gain at all. Others up by a lot but maybe thats a "none of the above" pick?

Seems there is no mood for move to the political left?
You can't really say that - it could be a shift in don't know's to FG, and FF to don't knows. Labour up on the election, and holding steady and Glimore with the highest satisfaction rating. Also, with a very real prospect of a 2 party coalition, FG would transfer heavily to Labour. SF would be more concerned - not benefitting at all from an FF implosion.

As for the left in general - big increase in Independent/ Others. I haven't seen the break down, but that obviously includes The Socialist Party, Workers Party, People Before Profit etc, and left leaning independents such as McGrath and Gregory.

[mypost]

When asked if he had considered a call for a General Election, the Taoiseach said he got a mandate to form the administration seven months ago and was only in the second year of a five-year term.

What mandate is this?? It wasn't from an election anyway.

[Ringo]

Wouldn't think it's that relevant tbh, once FG are doing so well.

I think its very relevant. Its easy for people who are pi$$ed off with a goverment to say so in a poll. When it comes to an election they are voting for a goverment and a Taoiseach. If Enda isn't the right man, that will have a huge effect on the Fine Fael vote & could cost them the election at a time where they should be able to romp home.