PDA

View Full Version : Financial Crisis



Pages : 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

OneRedArmy
01/10/2008, 10:32 AM
On what, as what I saw on Prime Time (albeit interupted by a teething baby), it was O'Dea that was fumbling and not being able to answer specifics? It's only right that the opposition point out who helped fuel the bubble - Government and bankers.Macy, you won't get me to defend O'Dea, or the rest of the Government! :D

Burton really didn't understand what she was talking about, which I suppose was understandable.

Of course the Government and the banks were responsible, but all this talk of "joe public" losing out to the greedy bankers sticks in my craw. Joe Public piled into buy-to-let property like there was no tomorrow because of a simple human failing, greed. The same failing that affected the banks.

The whole idea being peddled in the media that banks and Government should be the sole moral guardian for the whole state is ridiculous.

The country got to this position because the majority supported decisions, either explicitly or implicitly and as is usual when times are good libertarianism and free market doctrines are expoused by people wanting the good times to roll on and then when it goes down the pan the very same people turn into nanny-staters, with wailing and gnashing of teeth and "why didn't the instutitions stop me?!""....

Obviously not everyone bought into this view (I know you didn't), but to the whiners who lived it up in the good times, as we say in Derry, "take yer oil".

geysir
01/10/2008, 11:13 AM
Any deal that has the Banks purring is not a good deal for the people.
The Irish Gov. vote of confidence to underwrite all the top banks would make me very very nervous.
To me it looks like the State will lose bargaining position when it comes to taking shares as equity.
The people are going to take some serious hits.

I would prefer to underwrite the solid Banks and slaughter the one or possibly two reckless Banks.

I don't think there is a proper understanding of other possibilites of Equity Investment by the State.
The State provides capital and in return takes shares in the bank

The Iceland Gov. took equity (from one bank. Glitner) worth €2.8bn for €700m.
After the negotiations, the Bank's Board complained that they had been kicked around the floor, battered black and blue, pressed against the wall and under extreme pain were forced to sign the deal.
They called it the great bank robbery.
The State took over 75% of the total shares as equity, and the share price naturally drops 75%.
Immediate losers are the shareholders of whom some 1 or 2% are employees who received shares as bonus payments. Tough, but I am not that brokenhearted over top Bank employees losing a few eggs.
Nor over the loss to the large shareholders who ran the bank.

The next day, the share price rose by about 14%, means the Gov shares rose by €140m
With a bit of luck, the equity investment by the State will not prove to be a burden on taxpayers.



.

Billsthoughts
01/10/2008, 11:30 AM
I would prefer to underwrite the solid Banks and slaughter the one or possibly two reckless Banks.
.

What would you call the solid Banks? AIB and BOI were in big trouble if this thing didnt go thru. We were told not to place money with any of the above banks as wwas too risky.

dahamsta
01/10/2008, 11:58 AM
I sent an email to my TDs in Cork East last night asking them to vote against the bill.


Sir,

I'm a contituent from Ladysbridge. Please vote against the bailout bill
that will be put before you tomorrow, rushed legislation is ALWAYS bad
legislation.

I'll be watching your voting record with interest, it will affect mine in
future.

Yours sincerely,
Adam BeecherThe only one that's replied so far is David Stanton. His reply seems to be saying "we know best" but "I might not vote anyway".
Dear Adam,

Thank you for your email. We are all very concerned at the current banking
situation and the need to provide adequate, extensive and robust
legislation to protect any measures being taken. If the banking system
were to collapse, this would have major repercussions for everyone in the
country.
You may be aware that no vote is being called on the Bill today as the
debate is ongoing with Committee Stage being taken in the Dail. This
procedure gives the opposition parties a chance to put forward amendments
to the proposed legislation. I may not, in fact, get an opportunitty to
vote on the Bill at all, if a vote is not called.
Finally, Richard Bruton TD, is out Fine Gael spokesperson for Finance and
is responsible for tabling our amendments at committee stage. I can assure
you that he is very knowledgeable and well briefed on the issue and the
legislation put forward.

Best regards,
David Stanton TD

OneRedArmy
01/10/2008, 12:10 PM
What would you call the solid Banks? AIB and BOI were in big trouble if this thing didnt go thru. We were told not to place money with any of the above banks as wwas too risky.Who told you that?



...So Richard Bruton is knowledgeable and well briefed....... God help us.

The legislation itself has more holes than a sieve and appears to leave all the detail to administrative notice.

Macy
01/10/2008, 12:15 PM
So Richard Bruton is knowledgeable and well briefed....... God help us.
It's all relative - compared to all the cabinet, and most of the rest of the Dail, I'd say he is.

OneRedArmy
01/10/2008, 12:22 PM
It's all relative - compared to all the cabinet, and most of the rest of the Dail, I'd say he is.
Whilst I'm not going to defend the knowledge of the Government (as I'd say its on a par with the rest of the Oireachtas, ie limited), in fairness, the Government do have the advantage of having the Central Bank and the Dept of Finance advising them.

Who are the opposition relying on for technical advice?

I do think Adam's point around rushed legislation is fair though.

Reality Bites
01/10/2008, 12:28 PM
Dahamsta, I don't agree with your lobbying local TDs with negative responses to Government bailout, I have been a stern critic of both Lenihan and Cowen, but their decisive acts over the last two weeks have impressed me, It was vital that the Government stepped in to back up the Banks, if they didn't the Irish government faced "total chaos" and a failure of the financial system.

Billsthoughts
01/10/2008, 12:36 PM
Who told you that?
.

Head of finance/Clients,(not our own money - client money)

OneRedArmy
01/10/2008, 12:38 PM
Head of finance/Clients,(not our own money - client money)Interesting. Did he say anything about Anglo, Nationwide or PTSB?

Macy
01/10/2008, 12:38 PM
Whilst I'm not going to defend the knowledge of the Government (as I'd say its on a par with the rest of the Oireachtas, ie limited), in fairness, the Government do have the advantage of having the Central Bank and the Dept of Finance advising them.

Who are the opposition relying on for technical advice?
Isn't Bruton actually economist? The Central Bank and Dept of Finance presumably were advising the Government whilst they were getting us in this mess in the first place, so not exactly a ringing endorsement (either the Government was following their advice, or ignoring it - either way doesn't bode well for now).


I do think Adam's point around rushed legislation is fair though.
Goes without saying, especially when it turns out to be as flimsy and non-specific as this one. The Devil is in the detail, only it appears the Government are deliberately leaving the detail out!

geysir
01/10/2008, 12:39 PM
Depends who the Gov are batting for.
I'm fed up listening to some moronic TD's on radio going on about protecting the interests of the Bank shareholders as if they were little frail old people depending on this nest egg.

There is no one bailout solution.
The quality of any government intervention depends on the terms of the agreement.
The terms can vary. Its time for the Government to kick Bank ass, those who come looking for taxpayers money should be squeezed within an inch of its life in order to safeguard taxpayers money.

OneRedArmy
01/10/2008, 12:44 PM
The Devil is in the detail, only it appears the Government are deliberately leaving the detail out!More worrying, I'd say they haven't got that far yet.

If reports are true and at least one bank was hours away from falling on Monday night, they obviously came up with the idea and decided that the detail could be worked out later.

I'd be staggered if they are anywhere near the detail yet, unless they've translated the Swedish plan from the 90's on which all this is based.

Bruton is a former member of the ESRI so has the knowledge but on that basis is as up to his neck in it as Government.

Billsthoughts
01/10/2008, 1:02 PM
Interesting. Did he say anything about Anglo, Nationwide or PTSB?

only one he(treasury manager 40 yrs exp) said they were told to place deposits with were HBOS. said the day HBOS was taken over that nationwide and anglo look in trouble and last monday I was asking him and he said BOI/AIB in same boat now. AAA rating taken away. Think gov decision changes that.

OneRedArmy
01/10/2008, 1:06 PM
only one he(treasury manager 40 yrs exp) said they were told to place deposits with were HBOS. said the day HBOS was taken over that nationwide and anglo look in trouble and last monday I was asking him and he said BOI/AIB in same boat now. AAA rating taken away. Think gov decision changes that.
AIB & BoI never had a AAA rating. Around A+/AA.

S&P maintained the same ratings yesterday.

Billsthoughts
01/10/2008, 1:15 PM
AIB & BoI never had a AAA rating. Around A+/AA.

S&P maintained the same ratings yesterday.

well he said their rating had changed and we werent doing business with them.

pete
01/10/2008, 11:06 PM
Good debate with Vincent Browne on TV 3 tonight.

One of the experts said NCB stockbroker estimate the actual cost to Irish taxpayers of state guarantee could be E14billion or 25% of single years GNP. This was disputed by expert no.2

eamo1
02/10/2008, 12:57 AM
A friend of mine missed 2/3 payments on a student loan a few years ago and because of that he was refused a car loan.So you could say he made 2/3 "mistakes".The bank chiefs however get a whopping bailout and help when they make other related mistakes.Ill tell you if i dont get approved for a loan in a few weeks time after similarly missing 2/3 payments when i was a student(all of 3 years ago) there'll be war.

dahamsta
02/10/2008, 1:31 AM
Where do we stand with this now? Did it go to a vote today? The news coverage is very thin on the ground bar saying that now they're talking about covering foreign owned banks too. FFS.

OneRedArmy
02/10/2008, 7:39 AM
A friend of mine missed 2/3 payments on a student loan a few years ago and because of that he was refused a car loan.So you could say he made 2/3 "mistakes".The bank chiefs however get a whopping bailout and help when they make other related mistakes.Ill tell you if i dont get approved for a loan in a few weeks time after similarly missing 2/3 payments when i was a student(all of 3 years ago) there'll be war.No offence but thats a ridiculous comparison. Its more akin to payment protection insurance that the banks are getting. Which I presume you didn't have?

Macy
02/10/2008, 8:13 AM
One of the experts said NCB stockbroker estimate the actual cost to Irish taxpayers of state guarantee could be E14billion or 25% of single years GNP. This was disputed by expert no.2
Heard them on the Last Word with is, reckoning that worse case scenario is that banks assests over valued by 3.5%, which if they're into developers as much as everyone thinks seems low to me.

Of course, a stokebroker might be considered a vested interest in all this, which I was extremely disappointed in Matt Cooper not at least putting that fact out there.


Its time for the Government to kick Bank ass, those who come looking for taxpayers money should be squeezed within an inch of its life in order to safeguard taxpayers money.
You would expect so, but I can't see a Government that has been constantly bailed out politically by "missing" bank records going very hard on the banks.

OneRedArmy
02/10/2008, 10:11 AM
On a slightly more humorous note, the Brits are absolutely up in arms at what Ireland has done, as apparently there are already seriously large flows of deposits being withdrawn from British-owned banks in Ireland and even British banks in Britain into Irish owned institutions, including the British Post Office bank (which is run in a joint venture with BoI).

I've heard anecdotally that Northern Irish and English branches of Irish institutions are jammed with people opening accounts.

Payback for the 800 years of oppression starts here :D

pete
02/10/2008, 10:19 AM
The bill passed with 18 No votes as only Labour voted against.

Why is the government not guaranteeing the deposits & loans of foreign owned Irish banks (with Irish customers) but is guaranteeing Irish bank branches abroad (with non-Irish customers) ? When you read it like that the government is helping Irish banks first & not their Irish customers. :confused:

Mary Hanafin described this as "the bravest decision in a long time" when surely it is the biggest gamble in a long time.

OneRedArmy
02/10/2008, 10:23 AM
Why is the government not guaranteeing the deposits & loans of foreign owned Irish banks (with Irish customers) but is guaranteeing Irish bank branches abroad (with non-Irish customers) ? When you read it like that the government is helping Irish banks first & not their Irish customers. :confused:
Because the aim of the Act is to stabilise the Irish banking sector by opening up the interbank funding market. It has nothing to do with customers (the proportion of "customers" impacted is minimal).

If they didn't do what they did on Monday night, there wouldn't have been an Irish banking sector to help.

geysir
02/10/2008, 1:57 PM
Of course the Government and the banks were responsible, but all this talk of "joe public" losing out to the greedy bankers sticks in my craw. Joe Public piled into buy-to-let property like there was no tomorrow because of a simple human failing, greed. The same failing that affected the banks.
Yes the nature of greed is the same for everybody.
The effects of Corporate/ speculator greed is more damaging in effect by multiples to society than that joe public guy..
When a bank/institution removes its normal checks and balances and advertise/push those services they are responsible for spreading/propagating the greed. Selling a service akin to a pyramid scheme.
Yes people fall for it in the same way they fall for a pyramid scheme.
But what part has that joe public in the greater damaging schemes of corporate/speculator borrowing to invest in the exaggerated current values and future profits of companies/schemes.
Joe public was only a pawn in the scheme.

It is only some of the people have no right to complain.

When I bought my house it was about 3 times my annual salary, my kids atm would have to pay 12 to 15 times annual salary for something similar.
The most of the damage is experienced by people who did not live it up, who acted responsibility and more damage in proportion is experienced by lower income people.

OneRedArmy
02/10/2008, 2:36 PM
But corporate culture, left unregulated or unsupervised, will only ever be reflective of underlying individual morals. The whole idea of corporations having more moral responsibility than individuals is unrealistic.

Thats why we rely on regulations and supervision of adherence to these regulations.

That definitely failed, and failed globally, not just in Ireland.

Macy
02/10/2008, 2:51 PM
I don't know OneRedArmy, if people came under pressure to take more money than they needed like we did when we were going for our mortgage, I don't think you can put it down purely to individual morals. Can people sue for missold mortgages in Ireland like you can in the UK?

pete
02/10/2008, 3:54 PM
When I bought my house it was about 3 times my annual salary, my kids atm would have to pay 12 to 15 times annual salary for something similar.

I am not sure if that is relevant as interest rates might have been 15% which we are unlikely to ever see again. 5% is probably a good realistic rate.

When I got my mortgage in 2001 the Bank were very strict on the 3 time salary issue but sometime they changed this. My brother got mortgage a couple of years ago & the test seemed to be if he could afford if interest rate increased by 1%. I don't know what the best test is but 3 times salary was unrealistic.

OneRedArmy
02/10/2008, 5:08 PM
Just listened to what masqueraded as a debate on both The Right Hook and Last Word shows :eek::rolleyes:

Lets forget about the "ordinary man on the street" for a minute. What happened happened not because of normal residential lending issues. Arrears remain very low and although unemployment is worrying, if rates remain steady then arrears shouldn't climb hugely.

The liquidity crisis happened because fears around US subprime (which impacted Irish banks not a jot, they weren't part of that pyramid scheme) were transferred to fears around property development and investment in Ireland. These fears are absolutely realistic IMHO, there has been an impending bloodbath here for 12 months+ as demand dried up. But these transactions involved two or more parties, investor/developers and banks, both out to make a profit. Both are and will feel the pain and so they should.

Secondly, everyone is bandying around E400bn as if its second nature. NOBODY knows how this is going to look. I'd wager it hasn't cost the Government a cent to date, or worst case they had to make one payment to one counterparty on behalf of one bank on Monday (or so the rumour goes). A guarantee is only that, a guarantee to step in, until its actually called.

Nobody comes out of this with much credit, but I would expect a much more rigorous and pro-active Financial Regulator to emerge out of the end of this.

NeilMcD
02/10/2008, 9:53 PM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7649453.stm

tricky_colour
03/10/2008, 5:17 AM
A friend of mine missed 2/3 payments on a student loan a few years ago and because of that he was refused a car loan.So you could say he made 2/3 "mistakes".The bank chiefs however get a whopping bailout and help when they make other related mistakes.Ill tell you if i dont get approved for a loan in a few weeks time after similarly missing 2/3 payments when i was a student(all of 3 years ago) there'll be war.


Hmmm... do you think you have some God given right to get a car loan?
Personall if I were a bank manager I would not give you a loan untill you had paid off your other loan(s). Actually I would not give you a loan at all, well not for a car anyway. If you want a car you can save up for one, if you can't do that, well your're not credit worthy anyway. I have never had a loan for anything apart from my house, which was pretty much unavoidable. You can get a car for a few hundred euro, if you can't afford that get a bicycle!!

Anyway I can tell you now your chances of getting a car loan are pretty much zilch so you better start stocking up on weaponary for your 'car war'.
Most banks have not got enough money to pay for next weeks loo paper never mind a rust bucket.

All the financial crisisses around the world are due to irresponsible lending which has been going on for years. If I was a bank manager I would not have lent a penny on houses in the last 8 years or so as it was obvious they were grossly overpriced, obviously I am not a bank manager because I am not a corrupt irresponsible idiot, so I would not 'fit in'. I can also add up so I would be ruled out on those grounds too.

So you won't get a car loan but you will be paying for a car, other people's cars that is, and houses too, in higher taxes due to the the governments bail out of the banks irresponsible lending.

To many people have been living on credit for too long and it looks like that
particular bubble has burst, and won't be back for a long time, hopefully.

SMorgan
03/10/2008, 5:42 AM
On the Government scheme to under-right the 6 banks. If any member of those banks are found to have bought shares in banks immediately before the announcement and at a time that they would have been aware of the scheme, then I believe they should not just lose their jobs, but they should face a criminal investigation.

tricky_colour
03/10/2008, 5:45 AM
But corporate culture, left unregulated or unsupervised, will only ever be reflective of underlying individual morals. The whole idea of corporations having more moral responsibility than individuals is unrealistic.

Thats why we rely on regulations and supervision of adherence to these regulations.

That definitely failed, and failed globally, not just in Ireland.

The beauty is that those responsible in the banks have no liability afterall it is not their money the were flushing down the bog. They will be all right, their massive 'performance' bonuses will keep them going for a long time.

If they were really paid according to their performance they would be lined up against a wall and shot.

Reality Bites
03/10/2008, 8:01 AM
The beauty is that those responsible in the banks have no liability afterall it is not their money the were flushing down the bog. They will be all right, their massive 'performance' bonuses will keep them going for a long time.

If they were really paid according to their performance they would be lined up against a wall and shot.

Irish Nationwide Gaffe is as stupid as it is funny, you just know by the name alone that Michael Fingleton Jr is a Grade A1 A-hole

OneRedArmy
03/10/2008, 8:28 AM
Not surprised at Nationwide, glorified piggy bank, run by an arrogant so and so who has been in charge for 40 years, with a dose of nepotism thrown in.

He could've got every member 15k 2 years ago but decided that wasn't enough.

pete
03/10/2008, 11:17 AM
Pathetic actions by Irish Nationwide. Seems fairly obvious how Junior got his job.


“I will have no tolerance for any financial institution which seeks to exploit competitive advantage from this guarantee”, Mr Lenihan said on Wednesday.

Empty words? Unless emails or other communication leaked how will we know. The Financial Regulator has no powers anyway.

Saw small bit of FinReg on Prime Time last night. He could be a good politician the way he avoided questions. He kept saying he was convinced Irish banks had the equity to cover their losses yet he could not even estimate what their liability was. How can he say everything is ok if he has no idea what the exposure is? :rolleyes:

geysir
06/10/2008, 9:03 AM
When I got my mortgage in 2001 the Bank were very strict on the 3 time salary issue but sometime they changed this. My brother got mortgage a couple of years ago & the test seemed to be if he could afford if interest rate increased by 1%. I don't know what the best test is but 3 times salary was unrealistic.
Sounds like you just got in on time Pete.
Anyway, I am talking about the rise in the cost of buying a house in relation to an annual salary, not the change in criteria for deciding what mortgage you can get.
Housing prices have risen, by multiples in relation to income earned, since early 1970's, from a steady rise to crazy.
That is a serious problem now, for many of those first time buyers (from the past 5 years?) making off payments on a house loan the size of an elephant.


I am not sure if that is relevant as interest rates might have been 15% which we are unlikely to ever see again. 5% is probably a good realistic rate.
Mortgage interest rates were 4.25% to 4.9% when the price of a house was 3 times a teachers annual salary

geysir
06/10/2008, 9:22 AM
Well lads and lassies, I have seen the future effects of the beginning of this depression.

This injection of cash into Banks around the world won't put out the fire of depression.
It is an impossibility.
Prepare as best you can.
Reduce your exposure as best you can.
Ask around for advice on what you can do for your own situation

Even if this inevitable collapse was slowed down, the onward effect of what has been lost would roll on for ages.
But there is no sign of it slowing down, there is no solution. The US general election will be about which monkey is sitting in the chair witnessing all the drama for the next 4 years.

OneRedArmy
06/10/2008, 9:34 AM
Well lads and lassies, I have seen the future effects of the beginning of this depression.

This injection of cash into Banks around the world won't put out the fire of depression.
It is an impossibility.
Prepare as best you can.
Reduce your exposure as best you can.
Ask around for advice on what you can do for your own situation

Even if this inevitable collapse was slowed down, the onward effect of what has been lost would roll on for ages.
But there is no sign of it slowing down, there is no solution. The US general election will be about which monkey is sitting in the chair witnessing all the drama for the next 4 years.What are you talking about Nostradamus?

That the Western world is entering a period of recession?

Hardly groundbreaking news I would've thought.

Newryrep
06/10/2008, 9:39 AM
When I got my mortgage in 2001 the Bank were very strict on the 3 time salary issue but sometime they changed this. My brother got mortgage a couple of years ago & the test seemed to be if he could afford if interest rate increased by 1%. I don't know what the best test is but 3 times salary was unrealistic.

If that was the case it is an absolute joke.

It is all the fault of house prices which are now overvalued and have been ever since 3 times your combined salary and a 25 year mortgage couldnt get you on the property ladder. Everything stems from this, people who wanted on the property ladder needed higher salaries to fund higher mortages which drove up costs.

3 times your combined salary is about what the banks should be lending and a 25 year mortgage. The fact that this would hardly buy a garden shed is the problem.

I genuniely feel for those who have borrowed money of parents, and are mortaged up to the hilt on the first house they have bought with no prospect of getting it back.

A missed opportunity and I dont think history will be too kind on the governement in the last 10 years

OneRedArmy
06/10/2008, 9:45 AM
IIRC the mandatory stress test (mandated by FinReg) for mortgage affordability is a rate rise of 2% (not 1% Pete).

Not only was this probably not high enough, but its accuracy is also questionable given the economy with the truth that people tend to fill in on their outgoings ("forgetting" to mention personal loans and other commitments which impact monthly affordability significantly). As Macy said above, brokers and banks in many cases encouraged applicants minimise their outgoings in order to get a larged approved amount.

geysir
06/10/2008, 10:01 AM
What are you talking about Nostradamus?

That the Western world is entering a period of recession?

Hardly groundbreaking news I would've thought.
Not Nostradumus you smart alec:rolleyes:
Living in your future, as domiciled in an exposed economy now, witnessing the early effects of an economic collapse, that Irish people just can't imagine yet.


That the Western world is entering a period of recession?
Recession sounds a mild world to explain an economic collapse.

OneRedArmy
06/10/2008, 10:42 AM
Not Nostradumus you smart alec:rolleyes:
Living in your future, as domiciled in an exposed economy now, witnessing the early effects of an economic collapse, that Irish people just can't imagine yet.


Recession sounds a mild world to explain an economic collapse.I presume you're talking about Iceland? Not sure its a valid comparison as the only valid comparison is size. You are a small, very closed economy, we are a small very open economy.

Also, can you quantify the difference between a recession and a collapse? Is it GDP, asset prices etc. and what level of fall etc. etc.?

Suggest you phone Joe Duffy anyway, it sounds like something he may be interested in.

pete
06/10/2008, 11:17 AM
IIRC the mandatory stress test (mandated by FinReg) for mortgage affordability is a rate rise of 2% (not 1% Pete).


I am sure that is what was used. I am not aware of full details. I never remember affordability test when I got a mortgage all I remember was mortgage was lower than rent & I wasn't paying huge rent.

Dodge
06/10/2008, 11:30 AM
I am sure that is what was used. I am not aware of full details. I never remember affordability test when I got a mortgage all I remember was mortgage was lower than rent & I wasn't paying huge rent.

Surely that was the affordability test? You obviously had to provide bank statements etc. We (missus and me) had to go through a fair bit of paper work before being approved (in 2003). Mortgage lady told us the fact that ourr repayments were lower than the rent we were paying was a factor

pete
06/10/2008, 12:06 PM
Mortgage lady told us the fact that ourr repayments were lower than the rent we were paying was a factor

Don't remember that coming up as an issue. Money from rented room was allowed though. There was certainly no discussion on affect of interest rate increase. All I remember was 3 times rules seemed very restrictive. This was pre dotcom crash so probably wouldn't have touched me in 2002.

OneRedArmy
06/10/2008, 12:25 PM
Don't remember that coming up as an issue. Money from rented room was allowed though. There was certainly no discussion on affect of interest rate increase. All I remember was 3 times rules seemed very restrictive. This was pre dotcom crash so probably wouldn't have touched me in 2002.Pete they wouldn't necessarily discuss it with you. Banks tend not to discuss their credit policies.

But in terms of timing you may well have come in before the mandatory 2% stress.

In terms of simple salary multiples vs monthly affordability measure, its the latter that has tended to predominate over the last 5 years. Its a more accurate measure, but obviously relies on the accuracy of the information provided. If people understate their monthly commitments then it is likely they would be loaned a larger amount, which obviously is harder to repay in full if circumstances change.

geysir
06/10/2008, 6:37 PM
I presume you're talking about Iceland? Not sure its a valid comparison as the only valid comparison is size. You are a small, very closed economy, we are a small very open economy.

Also, can you quantify the difference between a recession and a collapse? Is it GDP, asset prices etc. and what level of fall etc. etc.?

Suggest you phone Joe Duffy anyway, it sounds like something he may be interested in.
Ahh, the comfort of smugness ;)
First they said it was sub-prime mortgage exposure.
Even the Iceland banks regarded them as way too risky.
Then they said, ahh it's only the Iceland State with its Banks running an alternate economy ten times the size of the national GDP.

Probably you are well aware of the difference between the criteria used and argued about to differentiate between a recession and depression. That's where Reagan cooked Jimmy Carter's campaign:)

Depression, the GDP declines >10%
add in the collapse of the consumer market as more and more people stagger under the weight of trying to pay their house loans, more people coping with decreased or no purchasing capacity.
Consumer production, retail, all connected economic activity etc etc are all geared up for the peak.
Then add unemployment.
The most alarming aspects of this economic deterioration is
that unemployment levels have already risen greatly and continue to
rise. How many people lost their jobs today?
How many people are likely to lose their jobs in the next months?

Collapse of Banks, collapse of the markets. How many banks at this moment in time are tottering on the brink?
The markets in freefall today?

Fixes? I forgot about the fixes, bailout, injection of cash etc etc are mere artificial props.
Can you please give your optimistic assesment of the viability of these fixes? How about an assessment of the effect of the $700bn bailout in the US.
It is inevitable that Capitalist-funded politicians will posture in respect to some sort of economic bailout. And it is equally inevitable that any economic bailout that is put into place by capitalist-funded politicians will tend
to put money in the pockets of the rich than the pockets of the poor.

Recessions and slumps, we had a good few. This is different to anything that happened since the 1930's.

monutdfc
07/10/2008, 8:38 AM
Peter Power's complete lack of knowledge on Q&A last night was astounding. He said that the Bank's liabilities weren't guaranteed!!!
He said that the government wouldn't take equity stake sin the banks, it'd be too risky - eh, hello, we already have the risk

Macy
07/10/2008, 9:12 AM
If people understate their monthly commitments then it is likely they would be loaned a larger amount, which obviously is harder to repay in full if circumstances change.
People were encouraged to understate their monthly committments. We were told it was "a pity that your credit union appears on your payslip as we have to ask about that now".