Northern Ireland Qualifiers

[geysir]

Now NI are 5th favourites, just ahead of San Marino.

[Not Brazil]

Now NI are 5th favourites, just ahead of San Marino.

Thanks for that - I've just spotted a good opportunity on the spreads.

If we finish fifth, there'll be no more plans being made for Nigel.

[geysir]

NI out to 1/41 'not to qualify' but strangely at a mean 12/1 'to qualify'.

That 12/1 looks to be the bargain bet of the year:rolleyes:
It would presumably include having to get 19 out of 22 available points.

12 points from SM & Poland home and away
6 points from 2 home games Slov and Slov
1 away point against Czech.

And all that just to achieve second in the group and then meet Italy in the play off (or some team like that).

[NeilMcD]

We created some decent chances - and if we can start taking them, we will pick up points.

"We have played three games, conceded four goals - but Maik Taylor has not had a save to make."

[ifk101]

NI has taken 8 points from a possible 27 competitive points under Nigel Worthington. That's less than 1 point per game (0.88 to be exact). If Nigel continues to steer the NI team like I have every confidence in him, I'm sure NI can muster up 9 points from their 10 WC qualifying games.

Let's compare Nigel Worthington's record against top manager Steve Staunton. Despite his failings even Staunton has a better record than Worthington. From 11 qualifying games, Ireland took 16 points, 1.45 points per game.

If NI take maximum points against San Marino in their next 2 qualifiers, (although judging by Nigel's quotes he's not too confident), Nigel will have amassed 14 points from 11 competitive games. That's 1.27 points per game.

To quote EG


Oh how we laughed, as the ROI stumbled from embarrassment to crisis under Father Dougal Staunton

You must be rolling around the ground in spasms of laughter now EG ;)

[geysir]

We created some decent chances - and if we can start taking them, we will pick up points.

"We have played three games, conceded four goals - but Maik Taylor has not had a save to make."
Doesn't that sound like 'Maik Taylor has not made a save'.

[Schumi]

Can't see the North qualifying after getting 1 point from 3 games, unfortunately.

NI out to 1/41 'not to qualify' but strangely at a mean 12/1 'to qualify'.
Nothing strange there at all, just a 5% margin for the bookies.

[geysir]

Can't see the North qualifying after getting 1 point from 3 games, unfortunately.

Nothing strange there at all, just a 5% margin for the bookies.
I don't understand the 5% margin bit but I do understand the 99.9% likliehood of the Bookies banking any bets made on NI at 12/1.

Odds of 12/1 against NI qualifying look ridiculous compared to the task involved.

[Schumi]

I don't understand the 5% margin bit
Sorry.

Odds of 12/1 indicate roughly an 8% chance of NI qualifying (1 divided by 13) and odds of 1/41 indicate about a 97% chance of NI not qualifying, adding up to 105%. There's a 100% chance of one of those happening (obviously!) so the 5% difference is where the bookies make their profit.

[geysir]

Thanks Schumi, I wondered how it was done.
In a 2 horse race like this, first they calculate the red hot fav and then balance the book with the price of the 2nd fav.
Even if the price for the 2nd fav. looks mean, there is a logic to it.

[ArdeeBhoy]

NI out to 1/41 'not to qualify' but strangely at a mean 12/1 'to qualify'.

And all that just to achieve second in the group and then meet Italy in the play off (or some team like that).

Fair enough if they do get into the play-offs, but does anyone really care anyway.

Their measure of being less mediocre than us is a strange one, given they were higher-ranked anyway at one time.........

[brianw82]

Suffice to say, they should beat San Marino on Wednesday. Are Healy and Lafferty good to play? Anyone have a record of previous games against SM?

[ArdeeBhoy]

Suffice to say, they should beat San Marino on Wednesday. Are Healy and Lafferty good to play? Anyone have a record of previous games against SM?

Well, they'll surely do better than us v.them, not that's much of a measure of anything?

[geysir]

So far in this group, at least a San Marino player has scored a goal which is more than a NI player has managed.

RTE are having a web-only (http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/features/slovakiavpoland.html) live broadcast of Slovakia V Poland

[Hammy_GAWA]

So far in this group, at least a San Marino player has scored a goal which is more than a NI player has managed.

:( Bad times indeed when you put it like that!

Not convinced it will be the big scoreline most people are predicting. Nothing to gain from this game (even if we win), and everything to lose.

[geysir]

Two goals is all you need.
The minnows are getting better at what they do.

[ifk101]

The minnows are getting better at what they do.

Results under Worthington suggest that NI are getting worse.

[Lionel Ritchie]

:( Bad times indeed when you put it like that!

Not convinced it will be the big scoreline most people are predicting. Nothing to gain from this game (even if we win), and everything to lose.

Welcome aboard Hammy. Ye'll do fine against them. Force a couple of corners and get the likes of Davis in amongst them and they'll collapse faster than non-collapsing argos furniture.

I don't agree that there's nothing to gain. A good thumping win would be a big morale booster. By San Marinos standards and form they're due a friggin' hiding and I'm guessing it's coming tonight ...but heh I'm an optimist (I've also called us for a 3-0 win over Cyprus so my soothsaying may be close to top of the gluesniffers league but we shall see). five nil to NI.

[ruben_sosa]

Sorry.

Odds of 12/1 indicate roughly an 8% chance of NI qualifying (1 divided by 13) and odds of 1/41 indicate about a 97% chance of NI not qualifying, adding up to 105%. There's a 100% chance of one of those happening (obviously!) so the 5% difference is where the bookies make their profit.

you forgot to factor in the chance that Roy Carroll, if playing, may throw the game for a betting syndicate in the Far East....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-417798/Carroll-rehab-drink-gambling.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1078315/Global-football-gambling-means-8217-t-bet-honesty.html

[geysir]

Referencing the Daily Muck as source automatically strips any credibility away from the gymnastic attempts to associate Carroll with match fixing.

[Noelys Guitar]

you forgot to factor in the chance that Roy Carroll, if playing, may throw the game for a betting syndicate in the Far East....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-417798/Carroll-rehab-drink-gambling.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1078315/Global-football-gambling-means-8217-t-bet-honesty.html

Des Kelly the journo. I wonder if this guy is in some way related to the chap who owned the carpet store near Dalymount park? The one that had an unusal number of blazes/fires/torchings etc etc.