New Zealand are a good side. Not many teams could put five past Cabinteely reserves.
No, it isn't obvious and is widely challenged (including by UEFA, which you ignored in my previous point).
Look, either we compare their record for the last one or two tournaments (in both cases, NI are obviously better in that we got more points and progressed twice). Or we credit the Scots for being merely mediocre rather than hapless in the previous two tournaments 4 or 6 years ago. Which again obviously (sorry) contradicts the basic claim of rankings converging after about 30 games.The North have gone from 300 points behind Scotland in June 2014 to 50 points behind now. Scotland have also been on a good run of form lately and only scored one point less in 2018 qualifying - so hardly a "much better" record for the North. (2016 is different obviously)
NI friendly record since summer 2014: 9-4-3-2 (you forgot our thrashing of Belarus just before they went down to Cork to hand out a footballing lesson )But the North's friendly record is appalling; wins over New Zealand, Slovenia, Latvia and that's it. Scotland by contrast have beaten the Czech Republic, Denmark, the North and Qatar (who drew with the North)
Scotland similarly: 8-4-1-3
Last edited by Gather round; 27/10/2017 at 11:01 AM.
Not sure what the UEFA alternative you refer to is? I don't see why you think they should be ignored entirely - but in any event, we can agree to disagree on the matter - it doesn't change the substance of the Elo system. If you want to have an Elo ranking system ignoring friendlies, you can.
I'm not sure why you're so adamant about this precise 30 game convergence. You say earlier that you think it should be precise because it's invented by mathematicians, but maths doesn't work that way. Should pi be exactly 3 because it was introduced by mathematicians? I don't think someone who has openly admitted to talking crap about the Elo system is really best placed to make these kind of demands of it.
Anyways, the simple fact that the North got more points and qualified twice (once to the play-offs) doesn't tell the full story. Nor does qualification for a tournament mean anything of itself - there's no bonus points going for it. And why should there? The points gained by virtue of a good qualifying campaign is statistically enough.
You can do the same performance stats as before to compare the North and Scotland (and something I've noticed here is that I'm using the chess formula where a win is 1 point and a draw is 0.5, whereas in football there's three times as many points for a win. There's also bonus points for away wins, extra goals scored, etc - none of that is relevant in chess, and all will impact my calculations, but they should still be decent guidelines)
So a couple of things jump out -Code:Team Fr Euro Q Fr Euro16 Fr WCQ N Ireland 1508 1764 1833 1613 1725 1628 Scotland 1765 1661 1811 1516 1689
> I was too hasty about the North's friendly record; it's actually quite comparable to Scotland's. I only really had a quick scan when making my previous post. Scotland have only played one friendly since the Euros, so their 1516 rating performance (a draw with Canada) isn't a particularly reliable figure as the data sample (one game) is too small. But pre-Euro friendly form is very similar, and quite good for both.
> The North didn't actually perform all that well at the Euros - which we know because they lost three of their four games
> Scotland actually outperformed NI ratings-wise in the last WC qualifiers - but San Marino being really crap effects on that. It drags NI's average opponent rating down a fair bit - had ye played (and twice beaten) Malta instead, as Scotland did, the rating performances would have been much the same. This again is down to the small sample size (5 nations) - it means the performance ratings are only guidelines, but as the overall ratings take in far more data, it isn't an issue at that level. So to an extent, the North were fortunate that 6½/10 (6 wins and a draw in chess speak - see my earlier point on the limitations of my calculations) was enough for a play-off spot, while the same score (5 wins and 3 draws) wasn't enough for Scotland.
But basically, there's little enough to choose between the two. In fact, there was just 5 points before the last two rounds of WC qualifying - but then NI lost their last two games, while Scotland won one and drew one. (This shows how reactive the ratings can be, which is actually a trait you earlier argued for, albeit to a higher and unnecessary extreme) Progressing past Switzerland in the play-offs could well move ye past Scotland.
You're right on Belarus; apologies.
But my previous point on who you played is important, and so again, you can't just compare raw records like that. Otherwise, we'd be better than both of ye because we keep beating Oman every couple of months.
Down six places to 32rd - https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017...kings-england/
http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranki...men/index.html
Hmm, I see that Heart, Passion, Skill and Team Spirit are up to a record 18th spot.
Up 8 to 26 a decent ranking.
http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranki...279/index.html
One ahead of the USA who were ranked a fair bit above us IIRC, well 6 above us, they moved up one from 28.
We are 2nd highest climber in the top 30 which is promising. Netherlands highest up 9 to 20.
Scotland up 14 to 29.
NI down 3 to 23
Wales down 1 to 14
England up 3 to 12
Going in the right direction.
Bit annoying Russia ranked 65 are at the World Cup and we are not, even worse for 9th ranked Chile who ain't going either.
tricky, those are the rankings from last October. This is the correct link: http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranki...ing-table/men/
We're still at 31 (same as in May - http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranki...286/index.html ).
USA dropped one to 25
North have dropped two to 29
Scotland have dropped eight to 42
Wales up three to 18
England up one to 12
Was wondering... sorry tricky but I had to remove my 'thanks'.
FIFA going with the ELO rankings going forward, that's Wales plans screwed so!
http://www.espn.co.uk/football/fifa-...edings?src=com
Don't tell Gather Round!
Morning Stu, morning everyone. Fellow NI stalwart Ealing Green got in first with the news
Just renewed my Euro 20 qualifying season ticket actually, hope springs eternal
We play quite a few friendlies, so maybe that will help us, I kind of doubt it though. We lost 5 out of the last 8 friendlies.The present system uses an average score based over a five-year period. However, as friendlies are worth significantly fewer points than competitive games simply playing them is guaranteed to drag down a nation's average score.
Some countries have actively avoided playing friendlies to protect their average score, while other teams -- such as England, Italy and Spain -- consistently play more friendlies and see their score fall.
It still relies on the nations that benefit having strong competitive records, but because of it Switzerland were seeded at the last World Cup finals, Wales seeded for European World Cup qualifying, and Poland seeded for the 2018 group-stage draw.
"It gives, I think, some more weight to official matches and so on but also takes away some of these imbalances we had before," Infantino said. "I hope it will be a little less subject to criticism."
On the bright side we beat the USA and 7th ranked France could only manage a draw, which ranks us about 6th my calculations.
29th in the first rankings under the new system: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2018...fifa-rankings/
NI 27th. France top, big drop for Germany,
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
They should be based on a head to head Showdown because All Over the World they cause so much Confusion. Still, when they're good, it's So Fine and feels like you've been given a Ticket to the Moon, and when they're bad you just got to Hold on Tight and hope for the best because that's The Way Life's Meant to Be. Generally, all I'm Wishing is that we're ahead of them Across the Border.
Fun ELO fact: in The Diary of Horace Wimp, the end segment is a chorus of 'Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Sunday' repeated. Jeff Lynne said Saturday is for football... Amen to that. Yes, I'm a nerd. But I'm a nerd with tickets for the Dublin gig later this year.
Hello, hello? What's going on? What's all this shouting, we'll have no trouble here!
- E Tattsyrup.
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
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