Who gets Europe?

**patsdad** · 21/10/2023, 8:17 AM

Last night’s games clarified the threshold but opened up some very interesting possibilities.
61 points will guarantee Europe. Hard to see Pats falling short with three games left, 2 points needed and Sligo coming to Richmond. It would be some collapse if Derry didn’t make it but they’ll expect at least 2 points from their trip to Cork and home game with Pats.
The fascinating bit is the remaining place. Dundalk v Bohs next Friday is huge. If Bohs win, they’ll do it with a home win against Cork in their last match. If they draw, they open the door for Shels to pip them with wins against UCD and Drogheda. If they lose there’s even a glimmer of hope for Dundalk should Shels not take the opportunity. But of course if Shels or Dundalk snatch 4th place at the death Bohs can still take the last European spot by winning the cup.
This is going to be competitive to the last minute.
And I haven’t even mentioned the slim possibility that there’s still a title chase.

**total hoofball** · 21/10/2023, 9:23 AM

I think you would have to spend a few hours running through deep scenarios on an excel sheet there will be loads of them

Barring choking results Pats/Derry should be ok for Europe. No question now that Dundalk vs Bohs game on Friday is going to be massive for 4th spot. Dundalk realistically have to win, if Bohs win and then they draw against Cork that could still see Shels pip them to 4th and then Bohs are dependent on winning the cup for Europe. With Shels I still can't be convinced we will definitely secure 6 points in our final two games against UCD and Drogheda especially up in United Park that final night will be a tough game, from our perspective we need Dundalk and Bohs to draw or Dundalk to win next week to keep things alive

The other thing that could come into play is goal difference, all very tight currently between Bohs (11), Shels (14) and Dundalk (9) Shels will be the happier of the 3 with that position if it comes into play which it could do in the scenario that - Dundalk beat Bohs, Shels beat UCD, Shels draw against Drogheda

**sbgawa** · 21/10/2023, 9:48 AM

If Drogs repeat their last result (win) in Talaght we will be going to inchicore on Friday (if Pats win Monday) with a chance for Pats to draw level at the top with a home win.
Two games to go and level pegging although our goal difference is much better
I prefer the scenrio that we beat Drogs and go to Pats needing a point for the title.

**Nesta99** · 21/10/2023, 9:58 AM

Originally Posted by sbgawa

If Drogs repeat their last result (win) in Talaght we will be going to inchicore on Friday (if Pats win Monday) with a chance for Pats to draw level at the top with a home win.
Two games to go and level pegging although our goal difference is much better
I prefer the scenrio that we beat Drogs and go to Pats needing a point for the title.

That would be boring though!

**2 Year Contract** · 21/10/2023, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by sbgawa

If Drogs repeat their last result (win) in Talaght we will be going to inchicore on Friday (if Pats win Monday) with a chance for Pats to draw level at the top with a home win.
Two games to go and level pegging although our goal difference is much better
I prefer the scenrio that we beat Drogs and go to Pats needing a point for the title.

If Drogs win tomorrow and Pats win on Monday, it would give pats the opportunity to go 3 points clear of rovers (with an extra game played and an inferior goal difference), not level on points.

If both rovers and pats win tomorrow/Monday, a point won’t be enough for rovers to secure the title officially just yet as that scenario would put rovers on 66 points, which pats could then match either a win in Derry, although the goal difference would probably require a big enough swing with a +10 in favour of rovers currently meaning they’d very likely win it, but not “officially” with a win and a draw in the next 2 if pats also win on Monday.

Regardless none of those scenarios I mentioned will probably work happen as always when scenarios get discussed. It’s a matter of when not if rovers limp over the line, but if they did bottle it from here it’d easily be the biggest/funniest collapse I’ve seen in football

**patsdad** · 21/10/2023, 10:54 AM

My first post slightly overstated the risk to Derry. They only need to stay ahead of Shels and with their GD one more point to give them 60 is enough.

**legendz** · 22/10/2023, 9:41 AM

Dundalk need to beat Bohemians. If they do and Shelbourne beat UCD:
4. Shels 57/35
5 or 6. Dundalk or Bohs 55/35

Shels drawing away to Drogheda in that scenario might secure 4th. It could depend on the amount Shels and Dundalk beat UCD by. Bohs then have the cup final.

**TonyD** · 22/10/2023, 11:34 AM

Originally Posted by 2 Year Contract

If Drogs win tomorrow and Pats win on Monday, it would give pats the opportunity to go 3 points clear of rovers (with an extra game played and an inferior goal difference), not level on points.

If both rovers and pats win tomorrow/Monday, a point won’t be enough for rovers to secure the title officially just yet as that scenario would put rovers on 66 points, which pats could then match either a win in Derry, although the goal difference would probably require a big enough swing with a +10 in favour of rovers currently meaning they’d very likely win it, but not “officially” with a win and a draw in the next 2 if pats also win on Monday.

Regardless none of those scenarios I mentioned will probably work happen as always when scenarios get discussed. It’s a matter of when not if rovers limp over the line, but if they did bottle it from here it’d easily be the biggest/funniest collapse I’ve seen in football

Agree that Rovers will get there, though it would be great obviously to go into Fridays game with a chance to catch them. Don’t see it though. To be honest I’d be delighted if we pip Derry to 2nd.

**ger121** · 22/10/2023, 1:25 PM

Going in needing to win the cup to secure Europe is too reminiscent of 2021 and we know how that ended. We’ve 2 cup finals left in the league. Win them both and we have Europe in the bag and can put that to one side.

**Martinho II** · 22/10/2023, 4:09 PM

Originally Posted by legendz

Dundalk need to beat Bohemians. If they do and Shelbourne beat UCD:
4. Shels 57/35
5 or 6. Dundalk or Bohs 55/35

Shels drawing away to Drogheda in that scenario might secure 4th. It could depend on the amount Shels and Dundalk beat UCD by. Bohs then have the cup final.

Im completely at a loss whats 57/35 or 55/35??

**pineapple stu** · 22/10/2023, 4:37 PM

57 points from 35 games I guess

**oriel** · 22/10/2023, 6:33 PM

Originally Posted by total hoofball

I think you would have to spend a few hours running through deep scenarios on an excel sheet there will be loads of them

Barring choking results Pats/Derry should be ok for Europe. No question now that Dundalk vs Bohs game on Friday is going to be massive for 4th spot. Dundalk realistically have to win, if Bohs win and then they draw against Cork that could still see Shels pip them to 4th and then Bohs are dependent on winning the cup for Europe. With Shels I still can't be convinced we will definitely secure 6 points in our final two games against UCD and Drogheda especially up in United Park that final night will be a tough game, from our perspective we need Dundalk and Bohs to draw or Dundalk to win next week to keep things alive

The other thing that could come into play is goal difference, all very tight currently between Bohs (11), Shels (14) and Dundalk (9) Shels will be the happier of the 3 with that position if it comes into play which it could do in the scenario that - Dundalk beat Bohs, Shels beat UCD, Shels draw against Drogheda

If Dundalk beat Bohs by any score on Fri, we will go ahead of Bohs as GD will then be the same or greater, a 1-0 win see both on +10 and both on 55pts (Dundalk more goals scored).

But even if we do beat Bohs, we would then realistically need another 3 huge things to happen, Shels to lose away to Drogs last game of season (assuming Shels beat UCD next week), Drogs wont want to lose last game, anyway then outscore Bohs in a win on the final day, (we are away to UCD)..............oh and Pats to win the cup.

Far far too many factors to bank on, I think we left it too late, losing away to Shels was prob last chance saloon, but there is a glimmer, a small one !

Ps folk seem to forget, Bohs win last 2 they secure 4th !

**ger121** · 22/10/2023, 11:36 PM

Originally Posted by oriel

Ps folk seem to forget, Bohs win last 2 they secure 4th !

Oh we know alright but there is a big difference between knowing something and doing something.

**legendz** · 27/10/2023, 10:54 PM

Shels are in pole position to take 4th. A draw against Drogheda should get them over the line, unless Dundalk have a big win over UCD.

**ontheotherhand** · 28/10/2023, 2:37 AM

I'd be shocked if Shels don't secure it. They are a far better team than bohs or dundalk even if they don't quite have the same individual talent as either.

**oriel** · 28/10/2023, 10:46 AM

Originally Posted by legendz

Shels are in pole position to take 4th. A draw against Drogheda should get them over the line, unless Dundalk have a big win over UCD.

Remember if Shels draw away to Drogs, Bohs can also snatch 4th with a big win home to Cork City. Dundalk would have to 'better' their win, and in the event Shels do drop points win by 4 clear goals. Unless of course Drogs win their last game of the season, then it will make for even more interesting results in Dalymount and UCD Bowl.

All things considered, Shels are favs as they have it in their own hands, but maybe lightening will strike twice, they only needed a win last game of FD season in 08 v Limerick for promotion who had nothing to play for, 1-0 up, and step forward Colin Scanlon to receive the freedom of Dundalk with a 94th min equaliser.

Not even sure there was a play off that season, so it was a double whammy.

**total hoofball** · 28/10/2023, 12:27 PM

Shels's slack performances in the Derry and UCD games means that a draw against Drogheda is nowhere near any formality. Mission will still be the same to win next week as Dundalk are capable of beating UCD by 4 goals and Bohs beat Cork 5-0 in that game at Dalymount earlier in the season who's to say they couldn't hit 6 this time

Thankfully Conor Kearns should be fine for next week, Harry Wood went off with a late knock last night, touch wood pun intended he will be ok

**Jamesie** · 28/10/2023, 9:43 PM

Originally Posted by total hoofball

Shels's slack performances in the Derry and UCD games means that a draw against Drogheda is nowhere near any formality. Mission will still be the same to win next week as Dundalk are capable of beating UCD by 4 goals and Bohs beat Cork 5-0 in that game at Dalymount earlier in the season who's to say they couldn't hit 6 this time

Thankfully Conor Kearns should be fine for next week, Harry Wood went off with a late knock last night, touch wood pun intended he will be ok

All of the scenarios are supposing Bohs lose the cup final

**legendz** · 30/10/2023, 9:13 AM

It has been a good battle for the European places this year. When was the last time 6th were still in the hunt for a top 4 finish on the final day?

**2 Year Contract** · 30/10/2023, 9:34 AM

Originally Posted by legendz

It has been a good battle for the European places this year. When was the last time 6th were still in the hunt for a top 4 finish on the final day?

2020. Pats were in with a slim chance of getting 4th, but were also in with a shout of finishing 9th if there was an equally unlikely set of results. Granted it was a farce 18 game season though so I couldn’t tell you the last time it happened in a full season