2017 NI Assembly Election

[Wolfman]

Two great points in those last two posts.

[DannyInvincible]

Two great points in those last two posts.

In case you missed it, here was Poots' bitter and graceless post-election interview:

[CraftyToePoke]

They really aren't reading the angle here are they, now SF, don't gloat, don't display a trace of the hideous attitude they displayed toward you and your voters back at them and theirs. Just continue rising above these dinosaurs and get the job finished.

[BonnieShels]

Not unexpected. But Jesus he's a bitter bitter man.

I feel bad for the UUP and Nesbitt. They ran a positive campaign and sought to find a middle ground. It can only be commended. These negotiations are gonna be great.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Remarkable result. I wonder what had more traction, RHI or Brexit?

[Wolfman]

I feel bad for the UUP and Nesbitt. They ran a positive campaign and sought to find a middle ground. It can only be commended. These negotiations are gonna be great.

Not sure I do, are the same outdated dogma in different clothes.

[BonnieShels]

Unionism is outdated. But there's always a middle ground. Mike was trying to find it.

We had the leader of a unionist party suggesting transfers to a nationalist party. That is significant.

We had Eastwood talking at the UUP conference. All good things. Unionism is a dying concept, always was, so it's possible that forward thinking Unionists see it best to look for a place at the table in a positive fashion rather than being dragged kicking and screaming out of 1690 and into 2017.

[Wolfman]

More out of political expediency IMO, as both parties struggling to make an electoral impact in this era including on Thursday, a combined vote of just under 25% but there is im merit in talking to the more reasonable unionists I suppose as the possibility of the border poll/a UI beckons.

Also another take here
There may be a certain crossover of posters I believe?

[DannyInvincible]

The nationalists are literally going to look like the future. They are much younger, and much more female. That female bias will even make them look more colourful on TV through their clothes.

Nationalism's Stormont gender balance - 15 female MLAs out of 39, which equates to 38.4 per cent - is more progressive than that of the Dáil (where 35 of 158 TDanna, or 22 per cent, are female) and that of Westminster (where 191 of 650 MPs, or 29 per cent, are female). In fact, it is much closer to that of European beacons like Sweden. Sweden's parliament has a very impressive female-participation figure of 44 per cent. Meanwhile, patriarchal and ageing political unionism lags well behind. Seven of the forty MLAs now designated as 'Unionist' are women; that equates to just 17.5 per cent. It is an ideology of the past both in talk and action.

Clearly, the ideals of equality, diversity and progressivism, which are the future, aren't just talking points within nationalism. They are in effect; nationalism is a much more accessible philosophy for women and, indeed, others such as the LGBT community. Actually, during BBC's coverage on Friday night, Caitríona Ruane interestingly spoke of female and LGBT members of the Protestant community giving their first-preference vote to Sinn Féin on the basis of the party's equality programme.

In saying that, I do still find Sinn Féin's position on reproductive rights to be regressive and in need of swift upgrade.

[Gather round]

Maybe some of them will finally go home!!

Charming Wolfie. Flirting with UKIP again?

What effort do you think should have been made [to redraw the border]?

You tell me. You claim you want a UI yet haven't made any effort to add any of NI whatsoever. You must realise it creates the impression that you, er, don't really want the UI.

You are living in Puckoon if you think a majority in the South don't want unification

Seen this recent opinion poll?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0304/85...nited-ireland/

Anyway, I'm sure you'll campaign real hard against it should the time come

Aye, just like you're “sure” about the above.

And I still don't understand why the EU would disregard us, a sovereign member, wrt Brexit given the effect it will have on us, a sovereign member

As I said, there are two broad and linked reasons why Brexit will hurt the South. You rely on trade links with Britain, and Brussels has so many other and bigger problems to deal with. I'm neither suggesting anything particularly controversial, nor implying that you need to follow the Brits out of the EU or similar.

Also never under estimate the strength of will in the national psyche not to be seen to have to follow the Brits in this

See above. I'm saying you'll hurt economically, not that you'll follow Britain's lead anywhere. I don't think [cod] psychology comes into it.

Basically GR there is a swagger coming into the stroll of the south of the border collective, which you would be very welcome to join in on presently however we may well make you pay well to join later, post 2020 for example

I think your swagger is misplaced, but thanks for the invite and purple prose

SF, don't gloat, don't display a trace of the hideous attitude they displayed toward you and your voters back at them and theirs

SF bossed the election, it would be unbelievably self-disciplined if they didn't gloat a bit. Let's see what sort of attitude they display to setting a budget, running health and education and the rest.

An amazing election really. I really didn't see that coming. As the partition of Ireland nears its one hundredth year, gerrymandered majority-unionism is dead

Calm down. Unionism doesn't die by falling below 50%+1. Gerrymandering ended decades ago.

I still think the assembly will lose a very astute, progressive intellect (and important subversive) in McCann...Mike Nesbitt has clearly demonstrated that there is logic and strategic wisdom in tactical cross-community vote transference. That is sure to come more into play in the future. Maybe not such a bad legacy, after all?...

McCann (like Tony Benn) may be happy to spend more time on politics after retirement

Agreed, Nesbitt logically had to suggest a deal with Eastwood if they were to have any chance of replacing the bigger two. But before you get too carried away, the bloke's a bigot. Not because of trivia like his attitude to the Irish Language, or even the previous Unionist pact. But simply as the way he allowed Alliance to be intimidated after Long ousted Robinson was hard to forgive.

Seven of the forty MLAs now designated as 'Unionist' are women

I make it eight (Barton, Bradley, Bunting, Cameron, Foster, Lockhart, McIlveen, Sugden).

The nationalists are literally going to look like the future. They are much younger, and much more female

Up to a point. Those nicely accessorised pink outfits look a lot like the past when they're hanging out in a graveyard with old bruisers in balaclavas. How politicians deal with practical problems in health, education, housing is more important than age, gender or style.

Remarkable result. I wonder what had more traction, RHI or Brexit?

I'd guess Brexit. Both the big two were content to go with a sectarian headcount. DUP lost very little support within Unionism as a result. SF realising they needed to make more effort to get the Nat vote share up above 40% (although still lower than in every election from 2001-10) was crucial.

Overall, as my old mate Bernadette McAliskey almost said, some of the bad guys lost. Not enough of them, alas

[Gather round]

nationalism is a much more accessible philosophy for women and, indeed, others such as the LGBT community...In saying that, I do still find Sinn Féin's position on reproductive rights to be regressive

So not that much more then?

As Unionism got about 5.5% more vote share than Nationalism and women voters are a roughly similar proportion of both blocs (if anything higher among Unionist voters who tend to be older), maybe not as "accessible" (ie popular) as you claim.

Clearly the POC rows reflect badly on the DUP. If they go and we just have a free vote or even referendum to pass gay marriage and abortion rights, that basically gets rid of the distinction. In any case, if U & N have philosophies (as opposed to single policies) they're about ethnicity/ nationality with everything else secondary.

I don't doubt Ruane's anecdotage. As you know, it's matched by tales of devout Catholics voting for the DUP and probably isn't statistically significant (are there any studies?).

[compare]the Dáil (where 35 of 158 TDanna, or 22 per cent, are female) and...Westminster (where 191 of 650 MPs, or 29 per cent, are female)

Great. Join a UI, get even less progressive politics

[DannyInvincible]

Seen this recent opinion poll?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0304/85...nited-ireland/

As pointed out in the article's concluding line, a majority of those polled in that particular poll still favour unity when you delete the undecideds. There'll be no option for undecideds on a referendum ballot; it'll be a straight "yes" or "no" question.

Also, the pollsters don't seem to have factored the economic benefits and financial incentives of unity into their equation or question; they've factored only their estimation of what they think the cost to the Irish government may be based (oddly and inexplicably) upon current UK government budget accounts. So, they've not really properly catered for the context of any unity scenario fairly and have loaded the question with a particularly negative bias.

Also, it's a really peculiar means of working out the supposed cost of unity. Current cost figures to the UK government are the costs of partition; they're not necessarily the future cost of reunification. You can't just assume the exact same economic scenario will exist post-unity when you will by then have removed one of the most significant stifling factors upon economic recovery, development and prosperity for the island economy; that being the border. The island can't afford partition as it is and Brexit will only make things worse. The border has impoverished people on both sides, but especially those in the north and around the border region in latter times.

Here's another southern poll from last July where two thirds of those polled said they'd back unity tomorrow: http://www.thejournal.ie/united-irel...01609-Jul2016/

Calm down. Unionism doesn't die by falling below 50%+1. Gerrymandering ended decades ago.

I used the term "majority-unionism". Majority-unionism is dead. As in, unionism has lost its long-standing and psychologically-significant parliamentary majority. That's beyond dispute.

The statelet is a gerrymandered entity in itself. Formed on the basis of a crude sectarian headcount, it's continued existence has essentially been the effect and sustenance of a gerrymander.

McCann (like Tony Benn) may be happy to spend more time on politics after retirement

To be honest, I suspect the tie-less and leather jacket-wearing McCann probably felt a bit out of place in Stormont, with its stuffy norms when it comes to shirts, ties (although I acknowledge there has been no formal stipulation on wearing these since last year), jackets/blazers and so forth. Of course, his politics obviously had the effect of isolating and alienating him in the chamber too, maybe even more so. Subversive/alternative commentary and grassroots activism/agitation probably suit McCann better than parliamentarism with all its suffocating procedures and formalities, as he may see it.

Agreed, Nesbitt logically had to suggest a deal with Eastwood if they were to have any chance of replacing the bigger two. But before you get too carried away, the bloke's a bigot. Not because of trivia like his attitude to the Irish Language, or even the previous Unionist pact. But simply as the way he allowed Alliance to be intimidated after Long ousted Robinson was hard to forgive.

Ha, don't worry; there was never any fear of me getting carried away engaging in apologia for Mike Nesbitt, so criticise him all you like.

I make it eight (Barton, Bradley, Bunting, Cameron, Foster, Lockhart, McIlveen, Sugden).

Sorry, aye, that brings it to 20 per cent. I'd overlooked the independent Sugden. 20 per cent is still pretty poor, mind.

How politicians deal with practical problems in health, education, housing is more important than age, gender or style.

It's not just a superficial or cosmetic matter though. Having more female representatives is a material indication of practical improvements in society, or a particular political sphere, and of enhanced socio-political mobility for at least one social group that has been historically marginalised from public and societal (rather than "traditional" familial) life and roles. More women are now achieving through education in ways that only men tended to do in the not-so-distant past, for example. That's obviously something that still requires work in society overall, but the effects are already more apparent in the more progressive political spheres.

[BonnieShels]

You tell me. You claim you want a UI yet haven't made any effort to add any of NI whatsoever. You must realise it creates the impression that you, er, don't really want the UI.

Is this a serious question? Are you unaware of the equality strife that existed since 1969 onward and the resulting constitutional settlement in 1998.
There were various ways and means to change the partition (Was it Heath or Wilson who proposed jettisoning South Armagh?), but what realistically would be achieved or how would a Southern Govt have a achieved it? DO you think a unilateral invasion a la Crimea would have proved to you that we reeeeeeally want reunification?

You play the cards you've been dealt!

Seen this recent opinion poll?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0304/85...nited-ireland/

A classic "leading question is leading"... You realise that on the ballot paper that the question will not mention costs right? And €9bn? What will cost €9bn? Is that an ongoing cost? Is it once off? Pointless question.

As it happens did see it. And I thought it's publication timing was interesting.

I also never heard of the crowd who conducted it and I'm sure they'll publish many more conveniently timed polls in the future.

As it stands though if you discount the don't knows, because they won't count in any ballot, the result is No: 49.54 Yes:50.46

A slim majority but a majority. Similar to what Poots claimed "victory" on.

The fact that the don't knows outnumbered the For/Againsts show that there is an emotional tie that gets muddied with cash. Again, there's no point debating a united Ireland on costs because it will never be fight on costs. It is a pure and unadulterated emotional issue. Also, €9bn is a steal based on the non-apportioned costs. 1.8m extra population. Proper reasoned spatial strategies abound!

Aye, just like you're “sure” about the above.



As I said, there are two broad and linked reasons why Brexit will hurt the South. You rely on trade links with Britain, and Brussels has so many other and bigger problems to deal with. I'm neither suggesting anything particularly controversial, nor implying that you need to follow the Brits out of the EU or similar.

Aye, the success of the EU ad it's member states. Of which we are one. FG are dealing with Europe on behalf of NI as well because London doesn't give a crap. NI is at the forefront of our governments negotiation stance.

[DannyInvincible]

So not that much more then?

As far as I'm aware, there is significant support for the pro-choice position within political nationalism and at party grassroots levels (especially within SF, where cumainn have discussed and tabled motions for radical overhaul) and I would imagine that will become official policy in the not-so-distant future. Perhaps I'm being optimistic, but we shall see... Can the same be said for political unionism, which appears to be inherently conservative, reactionary and traditionalist, or permanently stuck in the past when it's not being dragged out of it by others, in other words? I perceive attitudes to abortion and reproductive rights to be more hardline generally within political unionism. Correct me if I'm wrong.

As Unionism got about 5.5% more vote share than Nationalism and women voters are a roughly similar proportion of both blocs (if anything higher among Unionist voters who tend to be older), maybe not as "accessible" (ie popular) as you claim.

I'm not sure what you mean. I meant that accessing political nationalism's upper ceilings evidently appears to be easier for women (seeing as a significantly greater proportion of women have done so) than the passage for women generally to the top brass of political unionism.

Clearly the POC rows reflect badly on the DUP. If they go and we just have a free vote or even referendum to pass gay marriage and abortion rights, that basically gets rid of the distinction. In any case, if U & N have philosophies (as opposed to single policies) they're about ethnicity/ nationality with everything else secondary.

My republicanism or nationalism is based on rational, economic, political, social, historical, cultural and emotional factors. All are crucial, as far as I'm concerned.

I don't doubt Ruane's anecdotage. As you know, it's matched by tales of devout Catholics voting for the DUP and probably isn't statistically significant (are there any studies?).

It was anecdotal, admittedly, and I'm unaware of any studies, nor did Ruane refer to any. It was simply based upon her experience from having purportedly talked with Protestant women and Protestant members of the LGBT community on the doorsteps in the run-up to the election.

Great. Join a UI, get even less progressive politics

Ha, the stuffy southern establishment could do with a shake-up too, but that is afoot, if not underway.

[Wolfman]

Another poll.
http://www.thejournal.ie/northern-ir...72747-Mar2017/

[bennocelt]

Nationalism's Stormont gender balance - 15 female MLAs out of 39, which equates to 38.4 per cent - is more progressive than that of the Dáil (where 35 of 158 TDanna, or 22 per cent, are female) and that of Westminster (where 191 of 650 MPs, or 29 per cent, are female). In fact, it is much closer to that of European beacons like Sweden. Sweden's parliament has a very impressive female-participation figure of 44 per cent. Meanwhile, patriarchal and ageing political unionism lags well behind. Seven of the forty MLAs now designated as 'Unionist' are women; that equates to just 17.5 per cent. It is an ideology of the past both in talk and action.

Clearly, the ideals of equality, diversity and progressivism, which are the future, aren't just talking points within nationalism. They are in effect; nationalism is a much more accessible philosophy for women and, indeed, others such as the LGBT community. Actually, during BBC's coverage on Friday night, Caitríona Ruane interestingly spoke of female and LGBT members of the Protestant community giving their first-preference vote to Sinn Féin on the basis of the party's equality programme.

In saying that, I do still find Sinn Féin's position on reproductive rights to be regressive and in need of swift upgrade.

What, rape capital of Europe? In any case, aren't we all gender neutral these days so what does it matter

I would say the number of Protestants voting for SF would be minuscule

[Wolfman]

Charming Wolfie. Flirting with UKIP again?

Anything but. Just hoping their bigoted voters take note and go back to the country they're so fixated on...

You tell me. You claim you want a UI yet haven't made any effort to add any of NI whatsoever. You must realise it creates the impression that you, er, don't really want the UI.

Who's 'You'? Did you not notice 30 years of the Troubles?

As I said, there are two broad and linked reasons why Brexit will hurt the South. You rely on trade links with Britain, and Brussels has so many other and bigger problems to deal with. I'm neither suggesting anything particularly controversial, nor implying that you need to follow the Brits out of the EU or similar.

This as ever makes no sense. If anything the EU will do more for Ireland as they don't want other countries feeling susceptible to having to leave!

Unionism doesn't die by falling below 50%+1. Gerrymandering ended decades ago.

Except the whole territory was based on this and its legacy doesn't just disappear overnight FFS.

I make it eight (Barton, Bradley, Bunting, Cameron, Foster, Lockhart, McIlveen, Sugden).

There's no way Foster's a 'woman'!

I'd guess Brexit. Both the big two were content to go with a sectarian headcount. DUP lost very little support within Unionism as a result. SF realising they needed to make more effort to get the Nat vote share up above 40% (although still lower than in every election from 2001-10) was crucial.

You do realise there's far more parties and candidates standing...

Overall, as my old mate Bernadette McAliskey almost said, some of the bad guys lost.

More drivel that makes no sense.

[Wolfman]

What, rape capital of Europe?

No, that's based purely on Fake News. Based on that cretin Frump and other morons.

I would say the number of Protestants voting for SF would be minuscule

Whereas the number of Catholics voting DUP would be, er, 'huge'?

[DannyInvincible]

What, rape capital of Europe?

Referring to Sweden as the "rape capital of Europe" is not merely to grossly simplify reality; it is to either completely misinterpret or misrepresent the statistics and how they are recorded, which is different from other European states on account of definition (and that difference is actually a result of progressive policy and attitudes aimed at protecting women).

The Swedish government explains here: http://www.government.se/articles/20...ime-in-sweden/

Claim: "There has been a major increase in the number of rapes in Sweden."

Facts: The number of reported rapes in Sweden has risen. But the definition of rape has broadened over time, which makes it difficult to compare the figures. It is also misleading to compare the figures with other countries, as many acts that are considered rape under Swedish law are not considered rape in many other countries.

For example: If a woman in Sweden reports that she has been raped by her husband every night for a year, that is counted as 365 separate offences; in most other countries this would be registered as a single offence, or would not be registered as an offence at all.

Willingness to report such offences also differs dramatically between countries. A culture in which these crimes are talked about openly, and victims are not blamed, will also have more cases reported. Sweden has made a conscious effort to encourage women to report any offence.

Read more about the legal implications of the term 'rape' (in Swedish):

•http://www.notisum.se/rnp/sls/lag/19620700.htm#K6
•https://www.bra.se/download/18.37179...ingen_2016.pdf

Also, see this response by the BBC to the claims recently by Donald Trump and Nigel Farage that Sweden/Malmö is "the rape capital of Europe" (with immigrants being disingenuously blamed for what is a misrepresentation anyway): http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39056786

The claim: Many young male migrants arrived in Sweden over the past few years, when the country accepted unprecedented numbers of refugees, and there has been a huge rise in sexual crime in Sweden especially in the southern port city of Malmo.

Reality Check verdict: Malmo, along with other urban centres in Sweden, has one of the highest levels of reported rapes in proportion to population in the EU, mainly due to the strictness of Swedish laws and how rape is recorded in the country.

The rate of reported rapes in Malmo has not dramatically risen in recent years and has in fact declined from its peak in 2010, before the recent large increases in refugees.

It is not possible to connect crimes to the ethnicity of the perpetrators as such data is not published.

...

Have there been more sexual offences in Sweden?

"Sexual offences" is a very broad term, which refers to a range of all sex-related crimes in Sweden.

Rape is one of the sexual offences, but other crimes such as paying for sex, sexual harassment, indecent exposure, sexual exploitation, molestation and trafficking are included in the numbers as well.

The figures peaked in 2014. The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Bra) says this rise is due to the changes to the legislation in 2013, which made it tougher.

Similar increases in the number of reported cases were seen in 2006, after new sex offence legislation came into force in April 2005.

Since then, Sweden has recorded every reported case of sexual violence separately.

That means, as Susanne Lekengard from Bra explains, that if a person comes to the police and reports being raped by a partner or husband every day for the past year, the police will record each of these events.

In many other countries these incidents would be recorded just once: one victim, one type of crime and one record.

Also, paying for sex became one of the crimes counted in the statistics.

During 2015, the year in which Sweden took the largest number of asylum seekers, the number of reported sex crimes and rapes actually decreased by 11% and 12% respectively compared with 2014 - 18,100 sex offences were reported to the police, of which 5,920 were classified as rape.

Preliminary figures for 2016 show a rise, bringing the latest figures close to 2014 values.

Susanne Lekengard says the rise of the number of sexual molestation cases in 2016 is due to a higher number of reported cases of sexual harassment amongst teenagers at summer music festivals.

Sweden does not publish the ethnicity or national background of perpetrators of any crime, including sexual offences.

...

What about rape in Malmo?

According to Bra, the number of reported rape cases in proportion to the population in the municipality of Malmo has not seen a sharp increase since the biggest group of refugees arrived.

Reported rapes per 100,000 inhabitants peaked in 2008, 2010 and 2011, and the figures were higher for those pre-refugee influx years than in 2015 and 2016.

In addition, the reported rape figures were not higher in the Malmo municipality, compared with two other major urban municipalities in Sweden: the capital Stockholm and Gothenburg in the west.

...

What about an international comparison?

It is very hard to compare sex-related offences and rape across the world.

Police procedures and legal definitions vary widely around the world, making an international comparison meaningless.

The 2012 UN international rape rate comparison showed Sweden to have the highest rate of rape in Europe and the second highest in the world, but the report did not contain data for a total of 63 countries that did not submit any statistics, including, for example, South Africa, where other earlier surveys indicated a very high rape rate.

The most recent Eurostat data for the 28 EU countries also puts Sweden in the top spot.

But the agency warns that comparisons between different countries should be avoided because of differences between their legal and criminal justice systems, recording practices, reporting rates, efficiencies of criminal justice organisations and types of offences included in the categories.

There has also been a public debate in Sweden over the past two decades to raise awareness and encourage women to go to the police if they have been attacked.

This has resulted in a higher report rate than in other countries in Europe.

In any case, aren't we all gender neutral these days so what does it matter

Broader social and political attitudes on the social constructions of sex and gender don't see things that way - the biological reality that sexuality, sex and gender are spectral or on a continuum rather than being binary - and are usually found to be playing catch-up on biology and science: http://www.nature.com/news/sex-redefined-1.16943

It's easy to be frivolous or facetious for those of us who have had no experience of marginalisation or ostracisation on the basis of perceived sex or gender, but those social constructions still have very profound, restrictive and oppressive moral, social, legal, economic, political and cultural consequences for millions of people around the globe.

See, for example:

-http://genderbinary.wikidot.com/gend...y-outside-mold
-http://serendip.brynmawr.edu/exchang...-binary-system

I would say the number of Protestants voting for SF would be minuscule

On the general topic of Protestant republicans, here is a very loosely-related recent piece I came across in the Irish Times on modern-day Protestant nationalists in Ireland and the search for their radical history: http://www.irishtimes.com/culture/bo...ists-1.2987749

It may interest.

[BonnieShels]

Cheers for that link to that article Danny. That book goes on the wishlist now.