For the week that's in it, I've decided to take a look at the likelihood of Dundalk being seeded in the Champions League Second Qualifying Round next season if they go on and win the league, or what they need to do in the remaining Europa League matches to ensure they're seeded. Obviously quite early to analyse it fully and there are a lot of different permutations, but will be something to keep an eye on over the coming weeks as some of the other summer leagues finish up.
To be seeded, they will need 22 teams with a lower co-efficient than themselves to qualify for next season's Champions League (assuming Kosovan clubs meet the UEFA licensing criteria as expected). I've listed the lowest ranking leagues in order below, and included all the clubs (if any) in those leagues that have a higher co-efficient than Dundalk. Dundalk's current co-efficient is 5.815. Another draw will give them 6.865 and another win will give them 7.915. I've included the other summer season leagues whose champions have been or will be decided soon at the bottom.
- Kosovo - None
- San Marino - None
- Andorra - None
- Gibraltar - None
- Faroe Island - None
- Wales - None
- Malta - None
- Lithuania - Zalgiris 5.825
- Northern Ireland - None
- Luxembourg - None
- Armenia - None
- Montenegro - None
- Estonia - None
- Macedonia - None
- Latvia - None
- Georgia - None
- Bosnia - None
- Albania - Skenderbeu Korce 6.800
- Finland - HJK Helsinki 10.530. HJK in 1st place by 2 points ahead of IFK Mariehamn (2.030) with 3 matches to play.
- Iceland - FH 6.175 already champions
- Moldova - Sheriff Tiraspol 11.150
- Hungary - Videoton 8.650, Debrecen 6.900
- Slovakia - Slovan Bratislava 7.350, Trencin 6.850, Spartak Trnava 6.850, MSK Zilina 5.850
- Slovenia - Maribor 21.125
- Kazakhstan - Astana 14.650, Aktobe 7.400, Shaktyor Karagandy 6.900. Astana in 1st place by 4 points ahead of Kairat (5.400) with 5 matches to play.
- Bulgaria - Ludogorets Razgrad 31.025
- Serbia - Partizan Belgrade 16.075, Vojvodina 9.075, Red Star Belgrade 7.325
- Azerbaijan - Qarabag 14.850, Neftchi 9.600, Qabala 7.600, Inter Baku 5.850
- Cyprus - APOEL 19.910, Apollon Limassol 10.410, Omonia 7.910, AEL Limassol 7.910, AEK Larnaca 5.910
- Israel - Maccabi Tel Aviv 19.975, Maccabi Haifa 7.975, Hapoel Tel Aviv 7.975, Hapoel Beer Sheva 7.475, Hapoel Kiryat Shmona 7.475
- Norway - Rosenborg 12.665 already champions
- Sweden - Malmo 16.945, Elfsborg 10.445, AIK 9.945, Gothenburg 7.945, Helsingborg 6.945. Malmo in 1st place by 1 point ahead of IFK Norkopping (4.945) with 6 games left.
- Belarus - BATE 29.475, Dinamo Minsk 10.975, Shakhtyor Saligorsk 7.475. BATE in 1st place by 15 points with 7 matches to play.
That means at this point there are 16 teams guaranteed to be below them. Another draw in the Europa League would bring that up to 19 guaranteed, and a win up to 20. In addition to this, the Finnish, Swedish and Slovakian Leagues look the most promising at this early stage to be won by clubs with a lower co-efficient, and there's always a chance of a wildcard from the higher-ranked leagues.
It seems very likely that if Dundalk don't claim any further Europa League results they will miss out on seeding, and while another win won't even guarantee seeding I think it makes it fairly probable.
If Cork win the league of course, then I've just wasted an hour of my Friday night...
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