Draw against England does us no favours - even a win wouldn't have been much use to be honest, would have been better off not playing it from FIFA rankings point of view (which granted isn't usually really a good reason - as its mostly meaningless).
We will be left with 714 (if we beat Scot), 607 if we draw and 554 if we lose ... with 670/680 looking like the cut off for Pot 3 (based on current rankings) ... So only a win will see us improve and push into Pot 3, otherwise Pot 4. Pot 2 is out. But the important thing is Euro qualification against the Scots, a win will be more important to go towards that but might also help out in a small way for the FIFA WC2018 draw in July.
But if Wales do well against Belgium then they could be Pot 1, so its possible to draw Wales/Romania (Maybe Pot 1), Iceland/Slovakia (Maybe Pot 2) and Albania/N.Ireland (Maybe Pot 3), so its still possible to get a nice draw next month either way, just less likely...
Don't worry, after July I'll stop harping on about the rankings, this and the WC Finals draw is the only time that the FIFA rankings actually mean anything in the four year cycle.
Thanks for the update. Our draw really could go either way. We could get France as second seeds and there's teams like Turkey that we could get whether we are third or fourth seeds.Originally Posted by davidatrb
It's a big few days.
Where will we be if those games go the other way?
119th?
Anyway, about 12 predictions there lets say they are all 2-1 (ie equal likely hood of win lose draw) then the combined odds ~= 600,000-1
Get your mortgage on it!!
Last edited by tricky_colour; 07/06/2015 at 10:04 PM.
In world rankings term - what did that draw do for us? - like would it moved us up anything?
I know the Scotland game is huge now - its a must win like!
I am reliably informed that having drawn against England, a win against Scotland and we are in pot 3 for world cup draw. Anything else and it's pot 4.
Forget about the performance or entertainment. It's only the result that matters.
We got about 183 FIFA Points for drawing with England, and this is averaged with our points over the last year so it actually brings our average over the last year down to 389.18 (was 423.51 before we played them). So to answer the question it would probably move us down in points. Final position will depend on the Scottish match though.
The England points were Result (draw=1) * Importance (Friendly= 1) * Opponent Strength (England = 185) * Confed Strength(UEFA=0.99) = 1 * 1 * 185 * 0.99= 183.15
Last edited by davidatrb; 09/06/2015 at 7:53 AM.
Thanks davidtrb
Thats Wales as top seeds for the world cup qualifying!
lads,
If we beat Scotland - do we go to 39th in the rankings in July ..... and will that get us into 3rd pot of seeds for draw?
Yes. If we beat Scotland we will be 3rd seeds for the World Cup draw
"We lost because we didn't win"- Ronaldo
Croatia too, by my calculations if Italy don't beat Portugal next week. Wales Croatia Romania three teams that I wouldn't mind drawing from Pot 1. Italy and France could be a couple of big guns in Pot 2.
And if England fail to beat Slovenia it could mean that Wales are ranked ahead of them for the first time ever and the first time England aren't top of the 'home' teams since we were ranked ahead of them in 1995. England will probably and hopefully win though.
Last edited by davidatrb; 12/06/2015 at 11:31 PM.
Wales would hammer us at the moment in all fairness - be a better draw than a Spain or Germany alright.
Nah, we'd draw with Wales home and away.
Even with the deflection Shay could have reacted. A keeper should always to commit to covering his post and his bar. Fact: as a junior league keeper I would never have just let that ball sail wide without making sure. Had Shay just stepped across and followed the flight of the ball it'd have been a simple pick up. Two steps is all it'd have taken.
Maybe when I see it again il be more positive.
No, just seen it. There was a white shirt to his right which should have kept him moving right, just as a contingency. I expect a barrage of disagreement but Given was lazy. One more step was all it would have taken.
So now that we are out of Euro 2016 (bookie still giving 3/1 though which is a little optimistic I think) we can start focussing on WC2018 which starts with the draw next month and which we know now we will definitely be in Pot 4.
My prediction for the pots is:
Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Wales, England, Spain, Italy (obviously Romania and Wales are ones to hope for)
Pot 2: Croatia, Slovakia, Switzerland, Czech, Austria, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia (France the obvious one to avoid, the rest much the same but Italy could also be in Pot 2)
Pot 3: Poland, Scotland, Ukraine, Hungary, Albania, N. Ireland, Sweden, Slovenia, Serbia (N.Ireland, Albania and Slovenia from here would be nice, but much of a muchness all the way. Slovenia might be replaced by Greece here. Dont want Ukraine or Sweden.)
Pot 4: Greece, Turkey, Israel, Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroes, Montenegro,Estonia (We will avoid Greece (unless Greece escape) or Turkey, thats the silver lining of Pot 4!)
Pot 5: Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, Macedonia, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Moldova (Not much in here, but just might want to avoid Finland and Macedonia)
Pot 6: Kazakstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra. (The worst of the worst and Georgia!)
Greece will be very close to escaping Pot 4 if they beat Poland in a friendly on Tuesday, but still don't think it will be enough, probably just decimal places behind Serbia.
But it might not matter because Slovenia will drop themselves into Pot 4 with us if/when they lose or draw tomorrow, and Greece could then take their place in Pot 3.
Italy will drop down to Pot 2 if they draw against Portugal on Tuesday's Friendly, and Croatia will take their place in Pot 1.
There could be movement in Pot 5 or 6 if there are any major upsets like Luxembourg beating Ukraine, Belarus against Spain etc. but these things aren't interesting!
Poland look like they shot themselves in the foot with a friendly against Greece organised on Tuesday which even if they win will bring down their FIFA points enough to ensure that Bosnia will just pip them into Pot 2.
Last edited by davidatrb; 14/06/2015 at 1:03 AM. Reason: typo pot 2
Wales, Slovakia, Albania, Ireland, Azerbaijan and San Marino.
That'd be the dream draw really.
https://kesslereffect.bandcamp.com/album/kepler - New music. It's not that bad.
Friendlies are probably best played behind closed doors in the privacy of your own stadium.
I have a memory (might be just fantasy) that FIFA rankings were primarily about competitive games.
The ranking was based on 6? games each year, competitive games had priority and friendlies were bunched together and averaged separately before being part of the ranking computation.
The other distortion is that if a team wins, the multiplier is 3
and if a team draws, the multiplier is one, which mens nothing is multiplied. Some anomalies are normal, but that x3 multiplier distortion leads to this fifa ranking table having more anomalies than I can remember.
But Ireland are a 4th seed, can't argue against that.
We are exactly where we deserve to be no question. My guess is that our distinctly average team and manager is the type of 4th seed team that teams from the top three pots won't be too unhappy with. A possible nuisance yes but that is about all. I remember our darkest days pre-Jack when there was a real sense that with the right manager, our core of world class players would kick on and deliver. Likewise, under Mick there was a sense that the great talent coming through would mean that we would see brighter days.
I watch teams with so called inferior players like Northern Ireland, Iceland and Scotland at least try and play football with a system of playing and a lack of fear. Martin o'neill is showing himself to be a very poor manager for Ireland - I don't care what he did with Celtic and Leicester - I was concerned before he came and once he started talking publicly about our lack of players I despaired.
i live in hope for a new manager and a jack Byrne or Alex o'hanlon to develop and give us something to smile about.
How are the Faroes up in pot 4? 1 point in their last campaign (same group as ours). Two wins over the top seed this campaign will help obviously - but they've lost all their other games. Is that really enough to be the same seed as us, who've only lost one game in six (including a draw against the world champions)?
We certainly can't complain about being 3rd/4th seeds; just curious how the Faroes are so high up. You've them down ahead of Turkey, who got 16 points in their last campaign and have 8 this time, including a draw against Holland.
I have Faroes towards the bottom of Pot 4, so behind Turkey but ahead of the likes of Montenegro and Estonia. They are about 100 pts behind us. Draws aren't much use to anyone for ranking points. Friendlies aren't much use either and Faroes played none this year. So the draw against Germany counts for very little (we got 495 for drawing with Germany, but 488 for beating USA in a friendly and 770 for beating Georgia competitively). We have only 3 wins since July 2014 and two of those were in friendlies and two against relatively poor teams (not counting Gibraltar matches because they dont count to FIFA). Faroes have two competitve wins against Greece in the same period.
Games before July 2014 will only have 50% weighting.
I calculate their points (total 455.95):
faroes_20150709.jpg
And ours (total 607.88):
ireland_p1.PNG
ireland_p2.PNG
And Turkey's (total 627.51):
turkey_p1.png
turkey_p2.PNG
Last edited by davidatrb; 14/06/2015 at 11:02 AM.
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