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Thread: NI Westminster Election 2017

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    FORMERLY: backtowalsall backstothewall's Avatar
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    NI Westminster Election 2017

    NI Westminster Election 2017

    The 4th vote in 13 months (and possibly 5th if there is an assembly election the same day).

    Belfast East: Alliance v DUP. If there is a unionist pact DUP will be favorites to hang on. If not it will go down to the wire

    Belfast North: SF v DUP. Gerry Kelly likely to fall just short for the 478th time

    Belfast South: DUP v SDLP. Tactical voting from SF/Greens/Alliance probably enough for SDLP to hang on once again (unless there is a unionist pact)

    Belfast West - Safe SF

    East Antrim - Safe DUP

    East Derry - Safe DUP

    Fermanagh & South Tyrone - UUP v SF. Probably a SF gain

    Foyle - Looking at the assembly election results this should be a potential gain for SF. Though Mark Durkan is very popular. Should stay SDLP, though could get very interesting if a member of the McGuinness family were on the ballot.

    Lagan Valley - Safe DUP

    Mid Ulster - Safe SF

    Newry & Armagh - Safe SF

    North Antrim - Safe DUP

    North Down - Safe Ind Unionist

    South Antrim - DUP v UUP. Probably remains UUP

    South Down - SDLP v SF. SF will get closer than last time but SDLP should hang on

    Strangford - Safe DUP

    Upper Bann - DUP v UUP v SF. DUP probably hang on even without a pact

    West Tyrone - Safe SF
    Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.

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    Capped Player DannyInvincible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by backstothewall View Post
    Foyle - Looking at the assembly election results this should be a potential gain for SF. Though Mark Durkan is very popular. Should stay SDLP, though could get very interesting if a member of the McGuinness family were on the ballot.
    Has this actually been mooted as a possibility? I know a Sinn Féin winner in Foyle wouldn't sit in Westminster anyway, but McGuinness' family have always stayed out of the limelight and none of them are involved in party politics, as far as I know.

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    FORMERLY: backtowalsall backstothewall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DannyInvincible View Post
    Has this actually been mooted as a possibility? I know a Sinn Féin winner in Foyle wouldn't sit in Westminster anyway, but McGuinness' family have always stayed out of the limelight and none of them are involved in party politics, as far as I know.
    I haven't heard anything. Idle speculation by me but who knows. It would be a shot to nothing for SF, who already use the House of Commons like most parties use the House of Lords.
    Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.

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    Capped Player DannyInvincible's Avatar
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    For what it's worth, I feel Mark Durkan will have great difficulty keeping his seat in Foyle regardless.

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    Long has tweeted that she's prepared to stand again in East Belfast, if asked to do so by the party - already gets nationalist support, but will she pick up UUP votes?

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    Capped Player DannyInvincible's Avatar
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    Chris Donnelly on the prospect of the SDLP changing their attitude towards electoral pacts with Sinn Féin: https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/04/20...nion-of-pacts/

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Donnelly
    The Nationalist Surge indicated that the broader nationalist electorate wanted their political parties to be sharper and harder. Sinn Fein have taken this message on board, which is why we are unlikely to see a return to devolved government this side of the outstanding aspects of previous agreements being fully delivered upon.

    The SDLP’s changing attitude to the prospect of an election pact with Sinn Fein, albeit packaged in an anti-Brexit wrapping, suggests that Colum Eastwood is beginning to understand the message from nationalists too. The new arithmetic within nationalism post-March will doubtlessly have helped concentrate minds within the SDLP, and that has led to the earliest sign of public friction amongst senior party figures to date.

    ...

    The SDLP vote in South Belfast has been in freefall since 2010, when Alasdair McDonnell capitalised on Sinn Fein not standing to comfortably take the seat with 41% of the vote. When Sinn Fein decided to run in 2015, McDonnell barely clung on to the seat, claiming just 24.5% of the vote and winning with the lowest ever share of the overall vote at a Westminster constituency level. All of which means that, in the event of a unity Unionist candidate running, the SDLP will almost certainly lose this seat unless Sinn Fein stand aside.

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    FORMERLY: backtowalsall backstothewall's Avatar
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    I don't think the SDLP want a pact. It seems to me that this is an attempt to use the threat of one to prevent a unionist pact from being formed.
    Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.

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