2017 NI Assembly Election

[BonnieShels]

Total Unionist vote in both Down South and Newry Armagh was over 30% last year, ie close to two quotas. It would be a shock if the Nat turnout increased enough to change that to one seat each?

Aye. It would be insane. However I was only doing Walsall's maths. This is not my prediction.

[BonnieShels]

16/18- 64.78%

West Tyrone: 69.89% (up from 59.86% last time out)
South Antrim: 62.40%
Belfast East: 63.02%
Belfast West: 66.76%
Foyle: 65.00%
North Down: 59.22%
Strangford: 60.94%
Mid-Ulster: 72.38%
Belfast West: 66.76%
North Antrim: 63.22%
Fermanagh-South Tyrone: 72.61%
West Tyrone: 69.89%

The turnout was up across the board:
Mid-Ulster: 72%, up 13 percentage points on 2016
Strangford: 61%, up 11 points
North Down: 59%, up 10 points
Foyle: 65%, up nine points
East Londonderry: 63%, up 12 points
Belfast West: 67%, up nine points
Belfast East: 63%, up six points
Belfast South: 64%, up 10 points
Belfast North: 62%, up 10 points
North Antrim: 63%, up 10 points
East Antrim: 60%, up nine points
South Antrim: 62%, up 11 points
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: 73%, up nine points
West Tyrone: 73%, up 13 points
Newry & Armagh: 69% up 10 points
Upper Bann: 62% up 8 points

[BonnieShels]

Well now, that would be something to see unfold over the coming couple of days.

In other news, on the BBC news website tonight, the NI election finally gets a mention after 27 other topics are covered and if you are willing to scroll down a good long way.

There's nothing on the main UK news page on the BBC site. But I can read about online dating sites keeping us safe, a North Yorkshire pub winning an award and Brucey in hospital... RTÉ however are leading with it... Who's the national broadcaster in the North?

[DannyInvincible]

Bill White of Lucid Talk discussing their exit poll with Frank Mitchell on U105 this morning: https://audioboom.com/posts/5668563-...rnout-for-ae17

To broadly summarise, White says the DUP have taken a hit but that it may not do too much damage to them overall as they still look to have gotten their core vote out. He reckons they'll still be in a position to nominate the first minister but it'll likely be from a position of having a final tally of seats in the high 20s. The possibility of parties designated as "Unionist" losing their overall majority, which would be over 45 seats this time round, is a real prospect.

Alliance and the Green Party polled strongly in the east.

Nationalist and republican voters appear to have turned out in proportionately higher numbers than unionists, which is sure to benefit SF and the SDLP, although White says that it remains to be seen whether that will be crucial or dramatic.

[DannyInvincible]

64.78 per cent has been confirmed on BBC Radio Ulster as the final overall turn-out figure. That's up ten points on last May and I think it's the highest turn-out since 2003.

There's talk that Nelson McCausland may be in trouble in North Belfast and Emma Pengelly may lose out in South Belfast.

[BonnieShels]

64.78 per cent has been confirmed on BBC Radio Ulster as the final overall turn-out figure. That's up ten points on last May and I think it's the highest turn-out since 2003.

There's talk that Nelson McCausland may be in trouble in North Belfast and Emma Pengelly may lose out in South Belfast.

If Nelson and his mad red head loses out I'll let out the biggest YEEEEEEOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

Reading that over on Slugger:

http://sluggerotoole.com/2017/03/03/...log-the-count/

[BonnieShels]

Órlaithí Flynn has been elected in West Belfast, the first MLA of the incoming Assembly.


SF vote management is incredible in W Belfast:

Quota: 6725

Flynn 6918
Maskey 6346
McCann 6201
Sheehan 5466
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North Down - 3 MLAs elected
Easton (DUP), Farry (AP) and Chambers (UUP) elected

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Michelle O'Neill got 10258 first preferences, quota is 8280

[BonnieShels]

Alex Attwood first major casualty in West Belfast

[CraftyToePoke]

There's nothing on the main UK news page on the BBC site. But I can read about online dating sites keeping us safe, a North Yorkshire pub winning an award and Brucey in hospital... RTÉ however are leading with it... Who's the national broadcaster in the North?

NI isn't important to the British Tories and thus the BBC.

Now if only they had a leader in Dublin calmly offering them a safe economic future inside the EU with all their subsidies protected ...

Where is the assurance from London to this end ? Any mention of NI from Brexit politicians is an afterthought, an add on from what they were actually saying at the time and frequently has to be prompted by a direct question.

More to the point, where is the Unionist politician openly seeking this assurance for the people from Westminster ?

[Gather round]

SF vote management is incredible in W Belfast

Agreed, very good result for SF

Now if only they had a leader in Dublin calmly offering them a safe economic future inside the EU with all their subsidies protected ...

Are you being serious? The South is amid a political crisis which while hardly matching the EU's issues will see off Kenny and possibly the FG govt. That's before the likely bad effect of Brexit on the national economy.

Where is the assurance from London to this end?...More to the point, where is the Unionist politician openly seeking this assurance for the people from Westminster ?

Hammond and Brokeback have made guarantees until 2020 I think.

Unionism is seriously spooked here. All the DUP and Allister are full-on Brexit, the UUP look like a beaten rump and Nesbitt will probably walk now.

[DannyInvincible]

Looks like Eamonn McCann will lose out in Foyle unless he wins over a thousand more transfers than the DUP's Gary Middleton, who looks the favourite to take that fifth and final seat. Middleton will probably take a fair few transfers from the UUP's Julia Kee, which may well be enough to carry him through.

[BonnieShels]

GR, The crisis down South has dissipated. FF are playing a dangerous game now after being so so good (fwiw I hate them as much as the DUP, so to give them credit hurts) during the initial rush to replace Enda. There's no crisis unfortunately.

Crisis is what's happening over on the mainland. Have you ever seen a more clueless bunch in charge?

Anyway...

The worst thing the UUP could do is get rid of Mike TV. This won't be a great election for the UUP but if you keep changing leader what do you expect. They need to consolidate and figure out what they're at. Maybe they are a rump party and notions of the past are just that. Notions.

Maybe themselves and the SDLP should merge into a new IPP for the ages?

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Delighted McCann is gone. Always liked him as a commentator but as a PBP member he collapsed in my estimation.

[DannyInvincible]

The overall combined designated-Nationalist (SF and SDLP) vote is up this election from 36 per cent to 39 per cent, according to David McCann of Slugger O'Toole.

[Wolfman]

Someone posted this link on another site. For results.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ne...-35495537.html

[Gather round]

The crisis down South has dissipated

The Police/ Corruption one may have. The Brexit/ Border one hasn't hit ye yet. The Mad Brits will hurt others well beyond Big Island.

The worst thing the UUP could do is get rid of Mike TV. This won't be a great election for the UUP but if you keep changing leader what do you expect. They need to consolidate and figure out what they're at. Maybe they are a rump party and notions of the past are just that. Notions

I think he'll resign. They can soldier on, there are plenty of other small parties. Little point in folding into theTories who are a complete joke electorally up here. They lost to your woman from the Book of Leviticus in West Tyrone (41-27).

The overall combined designated-Nationalist (SF and SDLP) vote is up this election from 36 per cent to 39 per cent, according to David McCann of Slugger O'Toole

Aye, a good result all round

[CraftyToePoke]

I visualised you speedily typing a reply as I posted that

If FG is making assurances re unity, it doesn't matter who has the reigns daaahn saaaf, its assured. And I wouldn't in truth term it as a political crisis, it's not day to day stuff granted, and there will be a leader change, maybe even a new government, that's all. It will come and go, like all do in that game.

Paul Givan on BBC Ulster just now, saying the message was clear, get back in and work with SF and make it work. Gas man.

[BonnieShels]

The Police/ Corruption one may have. The Brexit/ Border one hasn't hit ye yet. The Mad Brits will hurt others well beyond Big Island.



I think he'll resign. They can soldier on, there are plenty of other small parties. Little point in folding into theTories who are a complete joke electorally up here. They lost to your woman from the Book of Leviticus in West Tyrone (41-27).



Aye, a good result all round

What's the border crisis?

It won't be of our doing so I can't see it being a major issue with regards political stability. The Brexit stuff is a different story. The EU will insulate us as best it can because our success is critical to the EU's success. I wouldn't be unduly worried.

[Gather round]

Agreed, it doesn't matter that much whether FG or FF hold the reins, because when Brexit bolts it wouldn't matter if AP McCoy was the jockey

That's the possible paradox. Brexit will likely impoverish both sides of the border. That will make many Southern voters less keen on a UI, not more.

Bonita- the Brexit and Border crises are one and the same in Ireland. Which isn't critical to the EU success. Compared to France, Spain or Italy?

[BonnieShels]

Agreed, it doesn't matter that much whether FG or FF hold the reins, because when Brexit bolts it wouldn't matter if AP McCoy was the jockey

That's the possible paradox. Brexit will likely impoverish both sides of the border. That will make many Southern voters less keen on a UI, not more.

Bonita- the Brexit and Border crises are one and the same in Ireland. Which isn't critical to the EU success. Compared to France, Spain or Italy?

It won't impoverish us that much at all. Some economic contraction. But nothing like 2008-2014.

The North of the island however is about to hit the buffers big style. A UI is getting closer than anyone could ever have anticipated.

Now for Nicola to pull the trigger...

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To constantly equate keenness for reunification to cost and economics completely devalues the latent romanticism of the concept.

No party in the South will campaign for a No vote never mind one based on economics. None. So again I wouldn't be unduly worried.

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France, Spain and Italy do not come into the Brexit argument where Ireland are concerned. Why would the EU let us go to the wall when that would "prove" the argument for Brexit? It's in their interests to make this work, so they will.

[Wolfman]

Why would people in Korea be bothered GR?